Intrinsic value of Retail Properties of America - RPAI

Previous Close

$12.98

  Intrinsic Value

$2.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

  Value-price divergence*

+21%

Previous close

$12.98

 
Intrinsic value

$2.29

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+21%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as RPAI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RPAI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.48
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  583
  595
  608
  624
  642
  661
  682
  706
  731
  758
  787
  818
  851
  887
  924
  964
  1,006
  1,051
  1,098
  1,148
  1,201
  1,257
  1,315
  1,377
  1,442
  1,511
  1,583
  1,659
  1,740
  1,824
  1,912
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  456
  467
  479
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  604
  627
  653
  680
  709
  739
  772
  806
  842
  881
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,214
  1,273
  1,334
  1,399
  1,467
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  436
  456
  467
  479
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  604
  627
  653
  680
  709
  739
  772
  806
  842
  881
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,214
  1,273
  1,334
  1,399
  1,467
Operating income, $m
  147
  139
  142
  145
  149
  154
  159
  164
  170
  177
  183
  191
  198
  207
  215
  225
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  405
  425
  446
EBITDA, $m
  371
  367
  375
  385
  396
  408
  421
  435
  451
  467
  485
  505
  525
  547
  570
  595
  621
  648
  677
  708
  741
  775
  811
  850
  890
  932
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,125
  1,180
Interest expense (income), $m
  102
  98
  100
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  217
  227
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  305
  320
  337
Earnings before tax, $m
  167
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
Tax expense, $m
  0
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
Net income, $m
  167
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,453
  4,471
  4,574
  4,692
  4,823
  4,970
  5,130
  5,305
  5,494
  5,698
  5,916
  6,150
  6,400
  6,666
  6,948
  7,248
  7,566
  7,902
  8,257
  8,633
  9,030
  9,448
  9,890
  10,355
  10,845
  11,361
  11,905
  12,477
  13,079
  13,713
  14,379
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,400
  4,471
  4,574
  4,692
  4,823
  4,970
  5,130
  5,305
  5,494
  5,698
  5,916
  6,150
  6,400
  6,666
  6,948
  7,248
  7,566
  7,902
  8,257
  8,633
  9,030
  9,448
  9,890
  10,355
  10,845
  11,361
  11,905
  12,477
  13,079
  13,713
  14,379
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
Average production assets, $m
  4,297
  4,383
  4,483
  4,599
  4,728
  4,871
  5,029
  5,200
  5,385
  5,585
  5,799
  6,029
  6,273
  6,534
  6,811
  7,104
  7,416
  7,745
  8,094
  8,462
  8,851
  9,261
  9,694
  10,150
  10,630
  11,137
  11,669
  12,230
  12,820
  13,441
  14,094
Working capital, $m
  0
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
Total debt, $m
  1,998
  2,035
  2,089
  2,151
  2,220
  2,296
  2,380
  2,471
  2,570
  2,677
  2,791
  2,914
  3,044
  3,183
  3,331
  3,488
  3,654
  3,830
  4,016
  4,212
  4,420
  4,638
  4,869
  5,113
  5,369
  5,639
  5,923
  6,223
  6,537
  6,869
  7,217
Total liabilities, $m
  2,301
  2,338
  2,392
  2,454
  2,523
  2,599
  2,683
  2,774
  2,873
  2,980
  3,094
  3,217
  3,347
  3,486
  3,634
  3,791
  3,957
  4,133
  4,319
  4,515
  4,723
  4,941
  5,172
  5,416
  5,672
  5,942
  6,226
  6,526
  6,840
  7,172
  7,520
Total equity, $m
  2,152
  2,133
  2,182
  2,238
  2,301
  2,371
  2,447
  2,530
  2,621
  2,718
  2,822
  2,934
  3,053
  3,180
  3,314
  3,457
  3,609
  3,769
  3,939
  4,118
  4,307
  4,507
  4,717
  4,939
  5,173
  5,419
  5,679
  5,952
  6,239
  6,541
  6,859
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,453
  4,471
  4,574
  4,692
  4,824
  4,970
  5,130
  5,304
  5,494
  5,698
  5,916
  6,151
  6,400
  6,666
  6,948
  7,248
  7,566
  7,902
  8,258
  8,633
  9,030
  9,448
  9,889
  10,355
  10,845
  11,361
  11,905
  12,478
  13,079
  13,713
  14,379
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.928
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  167
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  224
  228
  234
  240
  246
  254
  262
  271
  280
  291
  302
  314
  327
  340
  355
  370
  386
  403
  422
  441
  461
  482
  505
  529
  554
  580
  608
  637
  668
  700
  734
Funds from operations, $m
  263
  258
  264
  271
  278
  287
  296
  306
  316
  328
  340
  353
  367
  382
  398
  415
  433
  451
  471
  492
  515
  538
  563
  589
  616
  645
  675
  707
  741
  776
  814
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  264
  259
  265
  272
  280
  289
  298
  308
  319
  330
  343
  356
  370
  385
  401
  418
  436
  456
  476
  497
  519
  543
  568
  594
  622
  651
  682
  714
  748
  784
  822
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -224
  -228
  -234
  -240
  -246
  -254
  -262
  -271
  -280
  -291
  -302
  -314
  -327
  -340
  -355
  -370
  -386
  -403
  -422
  -441
  -461
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -554
  -580
  -608
  -637
  -668
  -700
New CAPEX, $m
  -435
  -86
  -101
  -115
  -129
  -143
  -157
  -171
  -185
  -200
  -214
  -229
  -245
  -261
  -277
  -294
  -311
  -330
  -349
  -368
  -389
  -410
  -433
  -456
  -481
  -506
  -533
  -561
  -590
  -621
  -653
Cash from investing activities, $m
  18
  -310
  -329
  -349
  -369
  -389
  -411
  -433
  -456
  -480
  -505
  -531
  -559
  -588
  -617
  -649
  -681
  -716
  -752
  -790
  -830
  -871
  -915
  -961
  -1,010
  -1,060
  -1,113
  -1,169
  -1,227
  -1,289
  -1,353
Free cash flow, $m
  282
  -51
  -64
  -76
  -89
  -101
  -113
  -125
  -138
  -150
  -162
  -175
  -188
  -202
  -216
  -230
  -245
  -260
  -276
  -293
  -310
  -328
  -347
  -367
  -387
  -409
  -431
  -454
  -479
  -505
  -531
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -80
  37
  54
  61
  69
  76
  84
  91
  99
  107
  114
  122
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  219
  231
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  331
  348
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  4
  18
  25
  31
  37
  43
  48
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -113
  41
  72
  86
  100
  113
  127
  139
  153
  167
  180
  194
  210
  224
  239
  255
  271
  288
  306
  324
  343
  363
  384
  405
  427
  451
  476
  502
  529
  557
  586
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  169
  -9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -34
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -160
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -287
  -302
  -318
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  10
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -263
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  9
  -34
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -35
  -33
  -31
  -28
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  99.3
  98.5
  97.5
  96.4
  95.2
  93.9
  92.5
  91.0
  89.5
  87.9
  86.3
  84.6
  82.9
  81.2
  79.5
  77.8
  76.1
  74.4
  72.7
  71.0
  69.3
  67.7
  66.1
  64.5
  62.9
  61.4
  59.8
  58.4
  56.9

Retail Properties of America, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company owns and operates shopping centers located in the United States. As of December 31, 2016, it owned 156 retail operating properties representing 25,832,000 square feet of gross leasable area (GLA). Its retail operating portfolio includes neighborhood and community centers, power centers, and lifestyle centers and multi-tenant retail-focused mixed-use properties, as well as single-user retail properties. As of December 31, 2016, it had identified 10 target markets, including Dallas, Washington, District of Columbia/Baltimore, New York, Atlanta, Seattle, Chicago, Houston, San Antonio, Phoenix and Austin. Its properties include 23rd Street Plaza, Azalea Square I, Boulevard Plaza, Brown's Lane, Cranberry Square, Denton Crossing, Dorman Center I & II, Edgemont Town Center, Edwards Multiplex, Green's Corner, Home Depot Plaza, Lake Mary Pointe, Lincoln Park, University Town Center and Winchester Commons.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Retail Properties of America (RPAI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.4
Price to Sales 5.3
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -18
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 92.8%
Total Debt to Equity 92.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Equity 7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.8%
EBITDA Margin 84.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.8%
Operating Margin 25.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 28.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Net Profit Margin 28.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 100%

RPAI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RPAI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $583 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Retail Properties of America. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Retail Properties of America. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RPAI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for RPAI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Retail Properties of America, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Retail Properties of America.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RPAI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RPAI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Retail Properties of America.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Retail Properties of America. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RPAI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RPAI are equal to 737%.

Life of production assets of 19.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Retail Properties of America operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RPAI is equal to -9.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2152 million for Retail Properties of America - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 234.503 million for Retail Properties of America is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Retail Properties of America at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Retail Properties of America reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 10:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ RPAI Signs Ulta Beauty Lease At Huebner Oaks   [May-16-17 06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Retail Properties of America reports 1Q results   [May-02-17 07:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Fresh Market closing a D.C.-area store   [Apr-21-17 05:36PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ First look at the planned redevelopment of Towson Circle   [Jan-12-17 12:55PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Skechers joins F21 Red at Central Texas Marketplace   [Oct-04-16 01:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] The Mainland Meets Sin City   [Sep-17-16 02:39AM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of RPAI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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