Intrinsic value of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust - RPT

Previous Close

$14.34

  Intrinsic Value

$2.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

Previous close

$14.34

 
Intrinsic value

$2.73

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as RPT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RPT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.57
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  261
  266
  272
  279
  287
  296
  305
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  450
  470
  492
  514
  538
  563
  589
  617
  646
  676
  709
  743
  779
  816
  856
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  178
  182
  186
  192
  197
  204
  211
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  276
  288
  300
  313
  328
  342
  358
  375
  392
  411
  430
  451
  472
  495
  519
  544
  570
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
Total operating expenses, $m
  191
  195
  200
  204
  211
  216
  224
  231
  239
  247
  257
  266
  277
  287
  300
  313
  325
  339
  355
  369
  386
  404
  421
  441
  461
  483
  504
  528
  553
  579
  606
Operating income, $m
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
  144
  152
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  250
EBITDA, $m
  162
  165
  169
  173
  178
  184
  190
  196
  204
  211
  220
  229
  238
  249
  260
  271
  284
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
  374
  393
  412
  432
  454
  476
  500
  525
  551
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
Tax expense, $m
  0
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Net income, $m
  60
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,062
  2,096
  2,144
  2,200
  2,261
  2,330
  2,405
  2,487
  2,576
  2,671
  2,774
  2,884
  3,001
  3,125
  3,258
  3,398
  3,547
  3,705
  3,871
  4,047
  4,233
  4,430
  4,637
  4,855
  5,085
  5,327
  5,581
  5,850
  6,132
  6,429
  6,741
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,058
  2,096
  2,144
  2,200
  2,261
  2,330
  2,405
  2,487
  2,576
  2,671
  2,774
  2,884
  3,001
  3,125
  3,258
  3,398
  3,547
  3,705
  3,871
  4,047
  4,233
  4,430
  4,637
  4,855
  5,085
  5,327
  5,581
  5,850
  6,132
  6,429
  6,741
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
Average production assets, $m
  1,901
  1,939
  1,983
  2,034
  2,091
  2,155
  2,224
  2,300
  2,382
  2,470
  2,565
  2,667
  2,775
  2,890
  3,013
  3,143
  3,280
  3,426
  3,580
  3,743
  3,915
  4,097
  4,288
  4,490
  4,702
  4,926
  5,162
  5,410
  5,671
  5,946
  6,235
Working capital, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Total debt, $m
  1,022
  1,045
  1,073
  1,105
  1,140
  1,180
  1,224
  1,271
  1,322
  1,378
  1,437
  1,501
  1,568
  1,640
  1,717
  1,798
  1,885
  1,976
  2,072
  2,174
  2,282
  2,396
  2,516
  2,642
  2,775
  2,915
  3,063
  3,218
  3,381
  3,553
  3,734
Total liabilities, $m
  1,191
  1,214
  1,242
  1,274
  1,309
  1,349
  1,393
  1,440
  1,491
  1,547
  1,606
  1,670
  1,737
  1,809
  1,886
  1,967
  2,054
  2,145
  2,241
  2,343
  2,451
  2,565
  2,685
  2,811
  2,944
  3,084
  3,232
  3,387
  3,550
  3,722
  3,903
Total equity, $m
  871
  883
  903
  926
  952
  981
  1,013
  1,047
  1,084
  1,125
  1,168
  1,214
  1,263
  1,316
  1,371
  1,431
  1,493
  1,560
  1,630
  1,704
  1,782
  1,865
  1,952
  2,044
  2,141
  2,243
  2,350
  2,463
  2,582
  2,707
  2,838
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,062
  2,097
  2,145
  2,200
  2,261
  2,330
  2,406
  2,487
  2,575
  2,672
  2,774
  2,884
  3,000
  3,125
  3,257
  3,398
  3,547
  3,705
  3,871
  4,047
  4,233
  4,430
  4,637
  4,855
  5,085
  5,327
  5,582
  5,850
  6,132
  6,429
  6,741
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.173
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421
  0.421

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  60
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  94
  96
  98
  101
  104
  108
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
Funds from operations, $m
  111
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  275
  289
  303
  318
  333
  350
  367
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  117
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  334
  350
  368
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -92
  -94
  -96
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -274
  -287
New CAPEX, $m
  -85
  -38
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -275
  -289
Cash from investing activities, $m
  8
  -130
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -370
  -389
  -409
  -430
  -451
  -474
  -497
  -522
  -549
  -576
Free cash flow, $m
  125
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -208
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -49
  23
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  155
  163
  172
  181
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  1
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -54
  23
  29
  36
  42
  48
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  109
  116
  124
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  172
  182
  191
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  71
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  11
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -6
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -6
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.9
  99.5
  99.0
  98.4
  97.6
  96.7
  95.6
  94.5
  93.3
  92.1
  90.8
  89.5
  88.2
  86.8
  85.4
  84.0
  82.6
  81.2
  79.8
  78.4
  77.0
  75.7
  74.3
  73.0
  71.7
  70.4
  69.1
  67.8
  66.6

Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust is an equity real estate investment trust. The Company's primary business is the ownership, management, redevelopment, development and operation of retail shopping centers. As of December 31, 2016, it owned and managed multi-anchored shopping centers in 12 metropolitan markets in the United States. It conducts its business through its operating partnership, Ramco-Gershenson Properties, L.P. It invests in large, multi-anchored shopping centers that include national chain store tenants and supermarket tenants. National chain anchor tenants in its centers include, among others, Bed Bath and Beyond, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Home Depot. Supermarket anchor tenants in its centers include, among others, Publix Super Market, Whole Foods, Kroger and Sprouts. Its shopping centers are located in metropolitan markets, such as Metro Detroit, Southeast Florida, Greater Denver, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Tampa/Lakeland, Milwaukee, Chicago and Atlanta.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust (RPT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.9
Price to Sales 4.4
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -26.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 117.3%
Total Debt to Equity 117.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity 6.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.2%
EBITDA Margin 76.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.4%
Operating Margin 26.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Net Profit Margin 23%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 123.3%

RPT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RPT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $261 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RPT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for RPT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RPT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $17 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RPT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RPT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RPT are equal to 728.2%.

Life of production assets of 20.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RPT is equal to -1.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $871 million for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79.545 million for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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RGC Regal Entertai 22.68 1.24  str.sell
HD Home Depot 182.25 104.26  sell
BBY Best Buy 63.62 79.65  buy
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LOW Lowe's 85.54 69.67  hold
BBBY Bed Bath&Beyon 23.26 102.67  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust Announces CEO Transition   [Dec-05-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 3Q results   [Oct-31-17 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 10:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600   [May-05-17 06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 1Q results   [May-02-17 05:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ 2 Retail REIT Picks Selling At A Discount   [Mar-21-17 10:32AM  Barrons.com]
▶ 2 Retail REIT Picks Selling At A Discount   [10:32AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 4Q results   [Feb-21-17 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Popular shopping center sold for top-10 price   [12:35PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of RPT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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