Intrinsic value of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust - RPT

Previous Close

$12.72

  Intrinsic Value

$9.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-26%

Previous close

$12.72

 
Intrinsic value

$9.43

 
Up/down potential

-26%

 
Rating

sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as RPT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RPT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.57
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  261
  270
  277
  284
  292
  300
  310
  321
  332
  344
  358
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  478
  499
  522
  546
  571
  598
  626
  656
  687
  720
  754
  791
  829
  869
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  196
  200
  205
  210
  217
  223
  231
  239
  247
  256
  259
  269
  280
  292
  305
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  397
  416
  435
  456
  478
  500
  524
  550
  576
  604
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  191
  196
  200
  205
  210
  217
  223
  231
  239
  247
  256
  259
  269
  280
  292
  305
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  397
  416
  435
  456
  478
  500
  524
  550
  576
  604
Operating income, $m
  70
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  265
EBITDA, $m
  162
  299
  306
  314
  322
  332
  343
  355
  367
  381
  395
  411
  428
  445
  464
  484
  506
  528
  552
  577
  603
  631
  661
  692
  725
  759
  796
  834
  874
  916
  961
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  9
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  2
  1
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -64
  -69
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  66
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  97
  102
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  154
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  268
  283
  299
  316
  334
Tax expense, $m
  0
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  72
  77
  81
  85
  90
Net income, $m
  60
  48
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
  148
  157
  166
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,062
  -400
  -410
  -420
  -432
  -445
  -459
  -475
  -492
  -510
  -530
  -551
  -573
  -597
  -622
  -649
  -678
  -708
  -740
  -773
  -809
  -846
  -886
  -927
  -971
  -1,018
  -1,066
  -1,117
  -1,171
  -1,228
  -1,288
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,058
  -400
  -410
  -420
  -432
  -445
  -459
  -475
  -492
  -510
  -530
  -551
  -573
  -597
  -622
  -649
  -678
  -708
  -740
  -773
  -809
  -846
  -886
  -927
  -971
  -1,018
  -1,066
  -1,117
  -1,171
  -1,228
  -1,288
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.127
  -0.675
  -0.676
  -0.676
  -0.676
  -0.674
  -0.675
  -0.676
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.674
  -0.675
  -0.674
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.676
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
  -0.675
Average production assets, $m
  1,901
  2,165
  2,214
  2,271
  2,335
  2,406
  2,484
  2,568
  2,660
  2,758
  2,864
  2,978
  3,098
  3,227
  3,364
  3,509
  3,663
  3,825
  3,998
  4,179
  4,371
  4,574
  4,788
  5,013
  5,250
  5,500
  5,763
  6,040
  6,332
  6,639
  6,961
Working capital, $m
  0
  -1,107
  -1,133
  -1,162
  -1,194
  -1,231
  -1,270
  -1,314
  -1,360
  -1,411
  -1,465
  -1,523
  -1,585
  -1,651
  -1,721
  -1,795
  -1,873
  -1,957
  -2,045
  -2,138
  -2,236
  -2,340
  -2,449
  -2,564
  -2,685
  -2,813
  -2,948
  -3,090
  -3,239
  -3,396
  -3,561
Total debt, $m
  1,022
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
Total liabilities, $m
  1,194
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Total equity, $m
  868
  -398
  -407
  -417
  -429
  -442
  -456
  -472
  -489
  -507
  -526
  -547
  -569
  -593
  -618
  -645
  -673
  -703
  -734
  -768
  -803
  -840
  -880
  -921
  -965
  -1,010
  -1,059
  -1,110
  -1,163
  -1,220
  -1,279
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,062
  -401
  -410
  -420
  -432
  -445
  -459
  -475
  -492
  -511
  -530
  -551
  -573
  -597
  -622
  -650
  -678
  -708
  -739
  -773
  -809
  -846
  -886
  -927
  -972
  -1,017
  -1,066
  -1,118
  -1,171
  -1,229
  -1,288
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.177
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.420
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993
  0.993

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  60
  48
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
  148
  157
  166
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  224
  229
  235
  241
  248
  256
  264
  274
  283
  294
  298
  310
  323
  336
  351
  366
  383
  400
  418
  437
  457
  479
  501
  525
  550
  576
  604
  633
  664
  696
Funds from operations, $m
  111
  272
  278
  286
  295
  305
  316
  327
  340
  354
  369
  383
  399
  417
  437
  457
  478
  501
  525
  551
  577
  606
  636
  667
  700
  735
  772
  811
  852
  895
  940
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
Cash from operations, $m
  117
  294
  304
  315
  328
  341
  355
  371
  387
  404
  423
  441
  461
  483
  507
  531
  557
  584
  613
  644
  676
  709
  745
  782
  822
  863
  907
  953
  1,001
  1,052
  1,105
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -212
  -216
  -221
  -227
  -234
  -241
  -248
  -257
  -266
  -276
  -286
  -298
  -310
  -323
  -336
  -351
  -366
  -383
  -400
  -418
  -437
  -457
  -479
  -501
  -525
  -550
  -576
  -604
  -633
  -664
New CAPEX, $m
  -85
  -42
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -307
  -323
Cash from investing activities, $m
  8
  -254
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -319
  -333
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -399
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -481
  -505
  -529
  -555
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -671
  -704
  -738
  -775
  -813
  -853
  -895
  -940
  -987
Free cash flow, $m
  125
  40
  37
  37
  37
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  112
  118
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -49
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -54
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  71
  32
  28
  26
  25
  24
  23
  22
  22
  22
  22
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  14
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  390
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  430
  37
  37
  37
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  407
  33
  31
  28
  26
  24
  23
  21
  19
  18
  16
  14
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust is an equity real estate investment trust. The Company's primary business is the ownership, management, redevelopment, development and operation of retail shopping centers. As of December 31, 2016, it owned and managed multi-anchored shopping centers in 12 metropolitan markets in the United States. It conducts its business through its operating partnership, Ramco-Gershenson Properties, L.P. It invests in large, multi-anchored shopping centers that include national chain store tenants and supermarket tenants. National chain anchor tenants in its centers include, among others, Bed Bath and Beyond, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Home Depot. Supermarket anchor tenants in its centers include, among others, Publix Super Market, Whole Foods, Kroger and Sprouts. Its shopping centers are located in metropolitan markets, such as Metro Detroit, Southeast Florida, Greater Denver, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Tampa/Lakeland, Milwaukee, Chicago and Atlanta.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust (RPT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.8
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -26.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 117.7%
Total Debt to Equity 117.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 6.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.2%
EBITDA Margin 76.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.4%
Operating Margin 26.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Net Profit Margin 23%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 123.3%

RPT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RPT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $265 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RPT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for RPT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RPT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RPT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 1350.8% for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RPT stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RPT are equal to 800.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RPT is equal to -409.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79 million for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
SKT Tanger Factory 23.66 12.37  sell
ODP Office Depot 2.71 10.93  str.buy
KSS Kohl's 73.65 87.23  buy
HD Home Depot 202.45 101.50  sell
BBY Best Buy 76.11 44.56  sell
GPS Gap 30.05 58.86  str.buy
LOW Lowe's 100.66 67.26  sell
BBBY Bed Bath&Beyon 18.78 90.12  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Club Fitness to open $3 million Maplewood studio   [Jun-25-18 05:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Financially Sound Real Estate Stocks Selling At A Discount   [May-14-18 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 04:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 4Q results   [Feb-20-18 05:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust Announces CEO Transition   [Dec-05-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 3Q results   [Oct-31-17 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 10:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600   [May-05-17 06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 1Q results   [May-02-17 05:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ 2 Retail REIT Picks Selling At A Discount   [Mar-21-17 10:32AM  Barrons.com]
▶ 2 Retail REIT Picks Selling At A Discount   [10:32AM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of RPT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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