Intrinsic value of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust - RPT

Previous Close

$11.80

  Intrinsic Value

$2.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$11.80

 
Intrinsic value

$2.71

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as RPT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RPT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.57
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  261
  269
  278
  288
  298
  309
  321
  334
  348
  362
  378
  394
  411
  430
  449
  470
  491
  514
  538
  564
  590
  618
  648
  679
  712
  747
  783
  821
  861
  903
  948
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  179
  185
  192
  199
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  287
  300
  313
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  412
  432
  453
  475
  498
  522
  548
  574
  603
  632
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
Total operating expenses, $m
  191
  196
  203
  210
  218
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  310
  324
  338
  353
  369
  386
  403
  422
  441
  461
  483
  506
  530
  554
  581
  608
  638
  668
Operating income, $m
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  153
  160
  169
  177
  187
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
EBITDA, $m
  162
  167
  172
  179
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  237
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  342
  359
  376
  395
  414
  435
  457
  480
  504
  529
  556
  584
  613
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
Tax expense, $m
  0
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
Net income, $m
  60
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,062
  2,119
  2,189
  2,264
  2,346
  2,434
  2,529
  2,629
  2,737
  2,852
  2,973
  3,102
  3,239
  3,383
  3,536
  3,698
  3,868
  4,048
  4,237
  4,437
  4,647
  4,869
  5,102
  5,348
  5,606
  5,878
  6,164
  6,465
  6,781
  7,113
  7,462
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,058
  2,119
  2,189
  2,264
  2,346
  2,434
  2,529
  2,629
  2,737
  2,852
  2,973
  3,102
  3,239
  3,383
  3,536
  3,698
  3,868
  4,048
  4,237
  4,437
  4,647
  4,869
  5,102
  5,348
  5,606
  5,878
  6,164
  6,465
  6,781
  7,113
  7,462
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
Average production assets, $m
  1,901
  1,960
  2,024
  2,094
  2,170
  2,251
  2,338
  2,432
  2,531
  2,637
  2,750
  2,869
  2,995
  3,129
  3,270
  3,420
  3,577
  3,743
  3,919
  4,103
  4,298
  4,503
  4,719
  4,946
  5,185
  5,436
  5,701
  5,979
  6,271
  6,578
  6,901
Working capital, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Total debt, $m
  1,022
  1,057
  1,097
  1,141
  1,189
  1,240
  1,295
  1,353
  1,415
  1,482
  1,552
  1,627
  1,706
  1,790
  1,879
  1,973
  2,071
  2,176
  2,286
  2,401
  2,524
  2,652
  2,787
  2,930
  3,080
  3,237
  3,403
  3,578
  3,761
  3,954
  4,156
Total liabilities, $m
  1,194
  1,229
  1,269
  1,313
  1,361
  1,412
  1,467
  1,525
  1,587
  1,654
  1,724
  1,799
  1,878
  1,962
  2,051
  2,145
  2,243
  2,348
  2,458
  2,573
  2,696
  2,824
  2,959
  3,102
  3,252
  3,409
  3,575
  3,750
  3,933
  4,126
  4,328
Total equity, $m
  868
  890
  919
  951
  985
  1,022
  1,062
  1,104
  1,150
  1,198
  1,249
  1,303
  1,360
  1,421
  1,485
  1,553
  1,625
  1,700
  1,780
  1,864
  1,952
  2,045
  2,143
  2,246
  2,355
  2,469
  2,589
  2,715
  2,848
  2,988
  3,134
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,062
  2,119
  2,188
  2,264
  2,346
  2,434
  2,529
  2,629
  2,737
  2,852
  2,973
  3,102
  3,238
  3,383
  3,536
  3,698
  3,868
  4,048
  4,238
  4,437
  4,648
  4,869
  5,102
  5,348
  5,607
  5,878
  6,164
  6,465
  6,781
  7,114
  7,462
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.177
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  60
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  263
  275
  289
  303
  318
  333
Funds from operations, $m
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
  320
  336
  352
  370
  388
  408
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  117
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  154
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  252
  265
  277
  291
  305
  320
  336
  353
  371
  389
  409
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -263
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
New CAPEX, $m
  -85
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -292
  -307
  -323
Cash from investing activities, $m
  8
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -228
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -292
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -374
  -393
  -413
  -434
  -455
  -478
  -501
  -527
  -553
  -581
  -610
  -641
Free cash flow, $m
  125
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -211
  -221
  -232
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -49
  35
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  62
  66
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  193
  203
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -54
  42
  49
  55
  60
  66
  72
  77
  82
  88
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  141
  150
  158
  166
  176
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  237
  249
  262
  275
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  71
  5
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  43
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  14
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -17
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.3
  98.3
  97.2
  96.0
  94.7
  93.3
  91.8
  90.3
  88.7
  87.1
  85.5
  83.9
  82.3
  80.6
  79.0
  77.4
  75.8
  74.2
  72.6
  71.1
  69.6
  68.1
  66.6
  65.2
  63.7
  62.4
  61.0
  59.7
  58.4
  57.1

Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust is an equity real estate investment trust. The Company's primary business is the ownership, management, redevelopment, development and operation of retail shopping centers. As of December 31, 2016, it owned and managed multi-anchored shopping centers in 12 metropolitan markets in the United States. It conducts its business through its operating partnership, Ramco-Gershenson Properties, L.P. It invests in large, multi-anchored shopping centers that include national chain store tenants and supermarket tenants. National chain anchor tenants in its centers include, among others, Bed Bath and Beyond, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Home Depot. Supermarket anchor tenants in its centers include, among others, Publix Super Market, Whole Foods, Kroger and Sprouts. Its shopping centers are located in metropolitan markets, such as Metro Detroit, Southeast Florida, Greater Denver, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Tampa/Lakeland, Milwaukee, Chicago and Atlanta.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust (RPT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.6
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -26.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 117.7%
Total Debt to Equity 117.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 6.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.2%
EBITDA Margin 76.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.4%
Operating Margin 26.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Net Profit Margin 23%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 123.3%

RPT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RPT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $261 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RPT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for RPT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RPT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $17 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RPT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RPT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RPT are equal to 728.2%.

Life of production assets of 20.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RPT is equal to -1.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $868 million for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 80.109 million for Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 4Q results   [Feb-20-18 05:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust Announces CEO Transition   [Dec-05-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 3Q results   [Oct-31-17 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 10:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600   [May-05-17 06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 1Q results   [May-02-17 05:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ 2 Retail REIT Picks Selling At A Discount   [Mar-21-17 10:32AM  Barrons.com]
▶ 2 Retail REIT Picks Selling At A Discount   [10:32AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Ramco-Gershenson Properties reports 4Q results   [Feb-21-17 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Popular shopping center sold for top-10 price   [12:35PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of RPT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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