Intrinsic value of RPX - RPXC

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$12.84

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$12.84

 
Intrinsic value

$29.68

 
Up/down potential

+131%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RPXC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.04
  12.30
  11.57
  10.91
  10.32
  9.79
  9.31
  8.88
  8.49
  8.14
  7.83
  7.55
  7.29
  7.06
  6.86
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
Revenue, $m
  333
  374
  417
  463
  511
  561
  613
  667
  724
  783
  844
  908
  974
  1,043
  1,114
  1,188
  1,266
  1,346
  1,430
  1,517
  1,608
  1,702
  1,801
  1,904
  2,012
  2,124
  2,241
  2,364
  2,492
  2,626
  2,766
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  288
  320
  353
  388
  424
  462
  502
  543
  586
  631
  662
  711
  761
  813
  867
  923
  982
  1,043
  1,107
  1,173
  1,242
  1,314
  1,389
  1,468
  1,550
  1,635
  1,725
  1,818
  1,916
  2,019
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  298
  288
  320
  353
  388
  424
  462
  502
  543
  586
  631
  662
  711
  761
  813
  867
  923
  982
  1,043
  1,107
  1,173
  1,242
  1,314
  1,389
  1,468
  1,550
  1,635
  1,725
  1,818
  1,916
  2,019
Operating income, $m
  35
  86
  98
  110
  123
  136
  151
  165
  181
  196
  213
  245
  263
  282
  301
  321
  342
  364
  387
  410
  435
  460
  487
  515
  544
  574
  606
  639
  674
  710
  748
EBITDA, $m
  207
  161
  180
  200
  220
  242
  264
  288
  312
  338
  364
  392
  420
  450
  481
  513
  546
  581
  617
  655
  694
  735
  777
  822
  868
  917
  967
  1,020
  1,075
  1,133
  1,194
Interest expense (income), $m
  -3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  83
  93
  105
  116
  129
  141
  155
  168
  183
  198
  229
  245
  262
  279
  297
  316
  336
  356
  378
  400
  423
  447
  472
  499
  526
  555
  585
  616
  649
  683
Tax expense, $m
  14
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
Net income, $m
  18
  61
  68
  76
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  144
  167
  179
  191
  204
  217
  231
  245
  260
  276
  292
  309
  326
  345
  364
  384
  405
  427
  450
  474
  499

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  191
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  735
  611
  682
  756
  834
  916
  1,001
  1,090
  1,183
  1,279
  1,379
  1,483
  1,591
  1,704
  1,820
  1,942
  2,068
  2,199
  2,336
  2,478
  2,627
  2,782
  2,943
  3,111
  3,287
  3,470
  3,662
  3,862
  4,072
  4,291
  4,520
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  544
  611
  682
  756
  834
  916
  1,001
  1,090
  1,183
  1,279
  1,379
  1,483
  1,591
  1,704
  1,820
  1,942
  2,068
  2,199
  2,336
  2,478
  2,627
  2,782
  2,943
  3,111
  3,287
  3,470
  3,662
  3,862
  4,072
  4,291
  4,520
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.612
  0.612
  0.611
  0.612
  0.613
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
  0.612
Average production assets, $m
  269
  301
  336
  373
  411
  452
  494
  538
  583
  631
  680
  732
  785
  840
  898
  958
  1,020
  1,085
  1,152
  1,223
  1,296
  1,372
  1,452
  1,535
  1,621
  1,712
  1,806
  1,905
  2,009
  2,117
  2,230
Working capital, $m
  113
  -81
  -90
  -100
  -110
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -169
  -182
  -196
  -210
  -225
  -241
  -257
  -273
  -291
  -309
  -328
  -347
  -368
  -389
  -411
  -434
  -459
  -484
  -511
  -538
  -567
  -598
Total debt, $m
  95
  121
  154
  189
  225
  264
  304
  345
  389
  434
  481
  530
  580
  633
  688
  745
  804
  865
  930
  996
  1,066
  1,139
  1,214
  1,293
  1,376
  1,462
  1,551
  1,645
  1,744
  1,846
  1,954
Total liabilities, $m
  261
  287
  320
  355
  391
  430
  470
  511
  555
  600
  647
  696
  746
  799
  854
  911
  970
  1,031
  1,096
  1,162
  1,232
  1,305
  1,380
  1,459
  1,542
  1,628
  1,717
  1,811
  1,910
  2,012
  2,120
Total equity, $m
  474
  324
  362
  402
  443
  486
  532
  579
  628
  679
  732
  787
  845
  905
  967
  1,031
  1,098
  1,168
  1,240
  1,316
  1,395
  1,477
  1,563
  1,652
  1,745
  1,843
  1,945
  2,051
  2,162
  2,279
  2,400
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  735
  611
  682
  757
  834
  916
  1,002
  1,090
  1,183
  1,279
  1,379
  1,483
  1,591
  1,704
  1,821
  1,942
  2,068
  2,199
  2,336
  2,478
  2,627
  2,782
  2,943
  3,111
  3,287
  3,471
  3,662
  3,862
  4,072
  4,291
  4,520
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.200
  0.370
  0.420
  0.470
  0.510
  0.540
  0.570
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.520
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  61
  68
  76
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  144
  167
  179
  191
  204
  217
  231
  245
  260
  276
  292
  309
  326
  345
  364
  384
  405
  427
  450
  474
  499
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  172
  75
  82
  90
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  141
  151
  146
  157
  168
  180
  192
  204
  217
  230
  245
  259
  274
  290
  307
  324
  342
  361
  381
  402
  423
  446
Funds from operations, $m
  175
  136
  151
  166
  182
  199
  217
  236
  255
  275
  296
  313
  336
  359
  383
  409
  435
  462
  491
  520
  551
  583
  617
  652
  688
  726
  766
  808
  851
  897
  945
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
Cash from operations, $m
  187
  152
  160
  176
  193
  210
  228
  247
  267
  288
  309
  327
  350
  374
  399
  425
  451
  479
  509
  539
  571
  604
  638
  674
  711
  751
  792
  834
  879
  926
  975
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -75
  -82
  -90
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -157
  -168
  -180
  -192
  -204
  -217
  -230
  -245
  -259
  -274
  -290
  -307
  -324
  -342
  -361
  -381
  -402
  -423
New CAPEX, $m
  -120
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -213
  -87
  -95
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -132
  -143
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -199
  -212
  -226
  -240
  -254
  -269
  -284
  -300
  -318
  -335
  -354
  -373
  -394
  -415
  -437
  -460
  -484
  -510
  -536
Free cash flow, $m
  -26
  66
  65
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  123
  133
  140
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  301
  318
  336
  355
  374
  395
  416
  439
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  96
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  32
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  97
  98
  107
  116
  126
  136
  146
  157
  168
  180
  188
  201
  214
  228
  242
  257
  272
  288
  305
  322
  341
  360
  380
  400
  422
  445
  468
  493
  519
  546
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  42
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  185
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  247
  60
  67
  75
  82
  91
  99
  108
  117
  127
  133
  144
  154
  166
  178
  190
  202
  216
  229
  244
  259
  274
  290
  307
  324
  343
  362
  382
  403
  424
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  237
  55
  59
  61
  64
  66
  67
  68
  67
  67
  63
  61
  59
  56
  52
  48
  44
  40
  35
  31
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

RPX Corporation provides patent risk management solutions in the United States, Japan, Korea, and internationally. It offers a subscription-based patent risk management solution that facilitates exchanges of value between owners and users of patents. The company provides a defensive patent aggregation in which it acquires patent assets to offer clients with licenses to protect them from patent infringement assertions; and insurance services to cover certain costs of non-practicing entity patent litigation. It also offers its clients with access to its proprietary patent market intelligence and data. RPX Corporation’s clients include companies that design, make, or sell technology-based products and services, as well as companies that use technology in their businesses. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RPX (RPXC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.8
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 32
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 18.8%
Total Debt to Equity 20%
Interest Coverage -10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital 3.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Equity 3.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.3%
EBITDA Margin 60.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.4%
Operating Margin 10.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Net Profit Margin 5.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Effective Tax Rate 43.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

RPXC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RPXC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $333 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RPX. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RPX. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RPXC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RPXC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RPX, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RPX.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RPXC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RPXC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for RPX.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RPX. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RPXC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RPXC are equal to 80.6%.

Life of production assets of 2.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RPX operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RPXC is equal to -21.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $474 million for RPX - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.325 million for RPX is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RPX at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 4 Things to Know About RPX Corporation   [Apr-27-17 08:07PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Who Are Patent Trolls & How Do They Work?   [Apr-15-17 06:00AM  Investopedia]
▶ Your Guide To Patent Play Exposure   [Mar-11-17 07:34PM  Benzinga]
▶ RPX Corp.: Leads amongst peers with strong fundamentals   [Mar-09-17 05:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why RPX Corp.'s Shares Popped 15% Today   [Mar-08-17 03:35PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why RPX Corp.'s Shares Popped 15% Today   [03:35PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Hedge Fund Mangrove Partners Done With RPX Corp (RPXC)?   [Feb-23-17 08:35AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Time Warner Cable, Cisco Veterans Join RPX   [Feb-08-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ RPX Corporation Announces CEO Transition   [Feb-06-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love RPX Corp (RPXC)?   [Dec-08-16 10:59AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Discovery Services Power RPX's Growth   [06:58AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Tyfone Enjoys Record Year With 43 Patents Issued   [Sep-07-16 06:35PM  Marketwired]
▶ When You Should (and Shouldn't) Sell a Stock   [Aug-22-16 10:45AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Rpx Corp (RPXC): Mangrove Partners Raises Stake to 7.2%   [Aug-20-16 02:13PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ RPX Deals With Shrinking Profits   [06:40PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] 13D Filings   [Apr-02-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of RPXC Financial statements of RPXC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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