Intrinsic value of R.R. Donnelley&Sons - RRD

Previous Close

$9.30

  Intrinsic Value

$5.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-46%

Previous close

$9.30

 
Intrinsic value

$5.03

 
Up/down potential

-46%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RRD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.59
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,896
  7,034
  7,196
  7,381
  7,588
  7,818
  8,071
  8,346
  8,643
  8,964
  9,308
  9,676
  10,068
  10,486
  10,931
  11,402
  11,902
  12,431
  12,990
  13,581
  14,205
  14,864
  15,558
  16,290
  17,061
  17,874
  18,729
  19,629
  20,576
  21,573
  22,621
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  6,794
  6,948
  7,125
  7,324
  7,544
  7,786
  8,049
  8,334
  8,641
  8,970
  9,262
  9,638
  10,038
  10,464
  10,915
  11,393
  11,900
  12,435
  13,001
  13,598
  14,229
  14,893
  15,594
  16,332
  17,110
  17,929
  18,790
  19,697
  20,651
  21,654
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,196
  6,794
  6,948
  7,125
  7,324
  7,544
  7,786
  8,049
  8,334
  8,641
  8,970
  9,262
  9,638
  10,038
  10,464
  10,915
  11,393
  11,900
  12,435
  13,001
  13,598
  14,229
  14,893
  15,594
  16,332
  17,110
  17,929
  18,790
  19,697
  20,651
  21,654
Operating income, $m
  -301
  240
  247
  255
  264
  274
  285
  296
  309
  323
  338
  413
  430
  448
  467
  487
  509
  531
  555
  580
  607
  635
  665
  696
  729
  764
  800
  839
  879
  922
  967
EBITDA, $m
  62
  478
  489
  501
  515
  531
  548
  567
  587
  609
  632
  657
  684
  712
  743
  775
  809
  844
  882
  923
  965
  1,010
  1,057
  1,107
  1,159
  1,214
  1,272
  1,333
  1,398
  1,465
  1,537
Interest expense (income), $m
  273
  271
  153
  161
  171
  182
  195
  208
  223
  239
  257
  275
  295
  316
  339
  363
  388
  415
  444
  474
  506
  539
  575
  612
  652
  693
  737
  783
  832
  883
  936
Earnings before tax, $m
  -497
  -31
  95
  94
  93
  91
  90
  88
  86
  83
  81
  138
  135
  132
  128
  125
  120
  116
  111
  107
  101
  96
  90
  84
  77
  71
  63
  56
  48
  39
  30
Tax expense, $m
  -12
  0
  26
  25
  25
  25
  24
  24
  23
  23
  22
  37
  37
  36
  35
  34
  33
  31
  30
  29
  27
  26
  24
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  8
Net income, $m
  -496
  -31
  69
  69
  68
  67
  66
  64
  63
  61
  59
  101
  99
  96
  94
  91
  88
  85
  81
  78
  74
  70
  66
  61
  56
  51
  46
  41
  35
  29
  22

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  646
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,269
  3,696
  3,781
  3,878
  3,988
  4,108
  4,241
  4,385
  4,542
  4,710
  4,891
  5,084
  5,291
  5,510
  5,744
  5,992
  6,254
  6,532
  6,826
  7,137
  7,465
  7,811
  8,176
  8,560
  8,966
  9,392
  9,842
  10,315
  10,812
  11,336
  11,887
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,623
  3,696
  3,781
  3,878
  3,988
  4,108
  4,241
  4,385
  4,542
  4,710
  4,891
  5,084
  5,291
  5,510
  5,744
  5,992
  6,254
  6,532
  6,826
  7,137
  7,465
  7,811
  8,176
  8,560
  8,966
  9,392
  9,842
  10,315
  10,812
  11,336
  11,887
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
  1.903
Average production assets, $m
  870
  886
  907
  930
  956
  985
  1,017
  1,052
  1,089
  1,129
  1,173
  1,219
  1,269
  1,321
  1,377
  1,437
  1,500
  1,566
  1,637
  1,711
  1,790
  1,873
  1,960
  2,053
  2,150
  2,252
  2,360
  2,473
  2,593
  2,718
  2,850
Working capital, $m
  966
  338
  345
  354
  364
  375
  387
  401
  415
  430
  447
  464
  483
  503
  525
  547
  571
  597
  624
  652
  682
  713
  747
  782
  819
  858
  899
  942
  988
  1,035
  1,086
Total debt, $m
  2,387
  1,339
  1,415
  1,503
  1,601
  1,710
  1,829
  1,959
  2,100
  2,251
  2,414
  2,588
  2,774
  2,971
  3,182
  3,405
  3,641
  3,891
  4,156
  4,435
  4,730
  5,042
  5,370
  5,716
  6,081
  6,465
  6,870
  7,295
  7,743
  8,215
  8,710
Total liabilities, $m
  4,375
  3,327
  3,403
  3,491
  3,589
  3,698
  3,817
  3,947
  4,088
  4,239
  4,402
  4,576
  4,762
  4,959
  5,170
  5,393
  5,629
  5,879
  6,144
  6,423
  6,718
  7,030
  7,358
  7,704
  8,069
  8,453
  8,858
  9,283
  9,731
  10,203
  10,698
Total equity, $m
  -106
  370
  378
  388
  399
  411
  424
  439
  454
  471
  489
  508
  529
  551
  574
  599
  625
  653
  683
  714
  746
  781
  818
  856
  897
  939
  984
  1,031
  1,081
  1,134
  1,189
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,269
  3,697
  3,781
  3,879
  3,988
  4,109
  4,241
  4,386
  4,542
  4,710
  4,891
  5,084
  5,291
  5,510
  5,744
  5,992
  6,254
  6,532
  6,827
  7,137
  7,464
  7,811
  8,176
  8,560
  8,966
  9,392
  9,842
  10,314
  10,812
  11,337
  11,887
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -22.519
  3.620
  3.740
  3.870
  4.010
  4.160
  4.310
  4.470
  4.620
  4.780
  4.940
  5.090
  5.240
  5.390
  5.540
  5.680
  5.820
  5.960
  6.090
  6.210
  6.340
  6.450
  6.570
  6.680
  6.780
  6.880
  6.980
  7.070
  7.160
  7.250
  7.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.208
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -496
  -31
  69
  69
  68
  67
  66
  64
  63
  61
  59
  101
  99
  96
  94
  91
  88
  85
  81
  78
  74
  70
  66
  61
  56
  51
  46
  41
  35
  29
  22
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  363
  237
  242
  246
  251
  257
  264
  271
  278
  286
  295
  244
  254
  264
  275
  287
  300
  313
  327
  342
  358
  375
  392
  411
  430
  450
  472
  495
  519
  544
  570
Funds from operations, $m
  -274
  207
  311
  315
  319
  324
  329
  335
  341
  347
  354
  345
  352
  361
  369
  378
  388
  398
  409
  420
  432
  445
  458
  472
  486
  502
  518
  535
  553
  572
  592
Change in working capital, $m
  -399
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Cash from operations, $m
  125
  200
  303
  306
  309
  313
  317
  321
  326
  332
  337
  327
  334
  340
  348
  356
  364
  373
  382
  392
  402
  413
  424
  437
  449
  463
  477
  492
  508
  524
  542
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -174
  -177
  -181
  -186
  -191
  -197
  -203
  -210
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -313
  -327
  -342
  -358
  -375
  -392
  -411
  -430
  -450
  -472
  -495
  -519
  -544
New CAPEX, $m
  -172
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -132
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -211
  -190
  -197
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -293
  -307
  -320
  -334
  -350
  -367
  -383
  -401
  -421
  -441
  -462
  -484
  -508
  -532
  -558
  -585
  -614
  -645
  -676
Free cash flow, $m
  -86
  10
  105
  101
  97
  93
  88
  83
  79
  73
  68
  46
  40
  34
  28
  21
  14
  6
  -2
  -10
  -19
  -28
  -38
  -48
  -58
  -69
  -81
  -93
  -106
  -120
  -134
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  318
  -1,040
  77
  87
  98
  109
  119
  130
  141
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  280
  295
  311
  328
  346
  365
  384
  404
  426
  448
  471
  496
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  1,144
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  7
  15
  24
  33
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  202
  104
  77
  87
  98
  109
  119
  130
  141
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  280
  295
  311
  328
  346
  365
  384
  404
  433
  463
  495
  529
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  101
  114
  182
  189
  195
  201
  208
  213
  219
  225
  231
  220
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  263
  269
  276
  283
  291
  298
  306
  315
  323
  339
  357
  375
  395
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  789
  -1,144
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  638
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -393
  173
  179
  184
  189
  194
  199
  204
  208
  213
  201
  205
  210
  214
  219
  224
  228
  233
  238
  243
  249
  254
  260
  266
  272
  278
  292
  307
  323
  340
Discount rate, %
 
  9.50
  9.98
  10.47
  11.00
  11.55
  12.12
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.47
  16.25
  17.06
  17.91
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.77
  22.86
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.79
  29.18
  30.64
  32.17
  33.78
  35.47
  37.24
  39.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -359
  143
  133
  121
  110
  98
  86
  75
  64
  54
  41
  34
  27
  21
  17
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  49.7
  48.9
  47.9
  46.5

R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company helps organizations communicate by working to create, manage, produce, distribute and process content on behalf of its customers. The Company's segments include Variable Print, Strategic Services, International and Corporate. The Variable Print segment includes the Company's United States short-run and transactional printing operations. The Variable Print segment's primary product offerings include commercial and digital print, direct mail, labels, statement printing, forms and packaging. The Strategic Services segment includes the Company's logistics services, print management offerings and digital and creative solutions. The International segment includes the Company's non-United States printing operations in Asia, Latin America and Canada. The International segment's primary product and service offerings include magazines, catalogs, retail inserts, books, directories, direct mail, logistics services and digital and creative solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  R.R. Donnelley&Sons (RRD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.3
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book -6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 81
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -2244.3%
Total Debt to Equity -2251.9%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital -18.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Return On Equity -171.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.1%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
EBITDA Margin 2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Operating Margin -4.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Net Profit Margin -7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 2.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.2%
Payout Ratio -34.9%

RRD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RRD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6896 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by R.R. Donnelley&Sons. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of R.R. Donnelley&Sons. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RRD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.5%, whose default value for RRD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of R.R. Donnelley&Sons, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of R.R. Donnelley&Sons.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RRD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RRD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.4% for R.R. Donnelley&Sons.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for R.R. Donnelley&Sons. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RRD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RRD are equal to 12.6%.

Life of production assets of 4.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in R.R. Donnelley&Sons operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RRD is equal to 4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-106 million for R.R. Donnelley&Sons - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.251 million for R.R. Donnelley&Sons is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of R.R. Donnelley&Sons at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ RR Donnelley Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-17-18 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ The 10 Biggest Stock Market Failures of 2017   [Nov-21-17 01:08PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ RR Donnelley Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-31-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ RR Donnelley Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-25-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Shares of R.R. Donnelley & Sons Plunged Today   [Aug-02-17 12:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ R.R. Donnelley posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 09:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ RRD Awarded an Agreement with Vizient   [Jul-05-17 09:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Shares of R.R. Donnelly & Sons Surged Today   [May-03-17 12:09PM  Motley Fool]
▶ R.R. Donnelley reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ RRD Recognized By IDGs CIO As A CIO 100 Award Winner   [May-01-17 09:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ RR Donnelley Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-06-17 04:45PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of RRD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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