Intrinsic value of R.R. Donnelley&Sons - RRD

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$12.15

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RRD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.59
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,896
  7,034
  7,196
  7,381
  7,588
  7,818
  8,071
  8,346
  8,643
  8,964
  9,308
  9,676
  10,068
  10,486
  10,931
  11,402
  11,902
  12,431
  12,990
  13,581
  14,205
  14,864
  15,558
  16,290
  17,061
  17,874
  18,729
  19,629
  20,576
  21,573
  22,621
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  6,794
  6,948
  7,125
  7,324
  7,544
  7,786
  8,049
  8,334
  8,641
  8,970
  9,262
  9,638
  10,038
  10,464
  10,915
  11,393
  11,900
  12,435
  13,001
  13,598
  14,229
  14,893
  15,594
  16,332
  17,110
  17,929
  18,790
  19,697
  20,651
  21,654
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,196
  6,794
  6,948
  7,125
  7,324
  7,544
  7,786
  8,049
  8,334
  8,641
  8,970
  9,262
  9,638
  10,038
  10,464
  10,915
  11,393
  11,900
  12,435
  13,001
  13,598
  14,229
  14,893
  15,594
  16,332
  17,110
  17,929
  18,790
  19,697
  20,651
  21,654
Operating income, $m
  -301
  240
  247
  255
  264
  274
  285
  296
  309
  323
  338
  413
  430
  448
  467
  487
  509
  531
  555
  580
  607
  635
  665
  696
  729
  764
  800
  839
  879
  922
  967
EBITDA, $m
  62
  389
  398
  408
  420
  433
  447
  462
  478
  496
  515
  535
  557
  580
  605
  631
  659
  688
  719
  751
  786
  822
  861
  901
  944
  989
  1,036
  1,086
  1,138
  1,194
  1,252
Interest expense (income), $m
  273
  272
  220
  230
  242
  255
  270
  286
  304
  323
  343
  365
  389
  414
  440
  469
  499
  530
  564
  600
  638
  677
  719
  764
  810
  859
  911
  966
  1,023
  1,084
  1,147
Earnings before tax, $m
  -497
  -32
  27
  25
  22
  18
  15
  10
  5
  0
  -6
  48
  42
  35
  27
  19
  10
  1
  -9
  -20
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -68
  -81
  -96
  -111
  -127
  -144
  -162
  -181
Tax expense, $m
  -12
  0
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  1
  0
  0
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -496
  -32
  20
  18
  16
  13
  11
  7
  4
  0
  -6
  35
  30
  25
  20
  14
  7
  0
  -9
  -20
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -68
  -81
  -96
  -111
  -127
  -144
  -162
  -181

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  646
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,285
  4,372
  4,472
  4,587
  4,716
  4,859
  5,016
  5,187
  5,372
  5,571
  5,785
  6,013
  6,258
  6,517
  6,794
  7,087
  7,397
  7,726
  8,074
  8,441
  8,829
  9,238
  9,670
  10,124
  10,604
  11,109
  11,640
  12,199
  12,788
  13,407
  14,059
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,639
  4,372
  4,472
  4,587
  4,716
  4,859
  5,016
  5,187
  5,372
  5,571
  5,785
  6,013
  6,258
  6,517
  6,794
  7,087
  7,397
  7,726
  8,074
  8,441
  8,829
  9,238
  9,670
  10,124
  10,604
  11,109
  11,640
  12,199
  12,788
  13,407
  14,059
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.895
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
  1.609
Average production assets, $m
  870
  886
  907
  930
  956
  985
  1,017
  1,052
  1,089
  1,129
  1,173
  1,219
  1,269
  1,321
  1,377
  1,437
  1,500
  1,566
  1,637
  1,711
  1,790
  1,873
  1,960
  2,053
  2,150
  2,252
  2,360
  2,473
  2,593
  2,718
  2,850
Working capital, $m
  966
  338
  345
  354
  364
  375
  387
  401
  415
  430
  447
  464
  483
  503
  525
  547
  571
  597
  624
  652
  682
  713
  747
  782
  819
  858
  899
  942
  988
  1,035
  1,086
Total debt, $m
  2,387
  1,930
  2,021
  2,124
  2,241
  2,369
  2,510
  2,664
  2,831
  3,010
  3,202
  3,408
  3,628
  3,862
  4,110
  4,374
  4,653
  4,949
  5,262
  5,593
  5,942
  6,310
  6,699
  7,108
  7,539
  7,994
  8,472
  8,976
  9,505
  10,063
  10,649
Total liabilities, $m
  4,390
  3,934
  4,025
  4,128
  4,245
  4,373
  4,514
  4,668
  4,835
  5,014
  5,206
  5,412
  5,632
  5,866
  6,114
  6,378
  6,657
  6,953
  7,266
  7,597
  7,946
  8,314
  8,703
  9,112
  9,543
  9,998
  10,476
  10,980
  11,509
  12,067
  12,653
Total equity, $m
  -106
  437
  447
  459
  472
  486
  502
  519
  537
  557
  578
  601
  626
  652
  679
  709
  740
  773
  807
  844
  883
  924
  967
  1,012
  1,060
  1,111
  1,164
  1,220
  1,279
  1,341
  1,406
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,284
  4,371
  4,472
  4,587
  4,717
  4,859
  5,016
  5,187
  5,372
  5,571
  5,784
  6,013
  6,258
  6,518
  6,793
  7,087
  7,397
  7,726
  8,073
  8,441
  8,829
  9,238
  9,670
  10,124
  10,603
  11,109
  11,640
  12,200
  12,788
  13,408
  14,059
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -22.519
  4.420
  4.520
  4.630
  4.750
  4.880
  5.000
  5.140
  5.270
  5.400
  5.540
  5.670
  5.800
  5.930
  6.050
  6.170
  6.290
  6.410
  6.520
  6.630
  6.730
  6.830
  6.930
  7.020
  7.110
  7.200
  7.280
  7.360
  7.430
  7.510
  7.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.207
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -496
  -32
  20
  18
  16
  13
  11
  7
  4
  0
  -6
  35
  30
  25
  20
  14
  7
  0
  -9
  -20
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -68
  -81
  -96
  -111
  -127
  -144
  -162
  -181
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  363
  149
  151
  153
  156
  159
  162
  165
  169
  173
  177
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
Funds from operations, $m
  -274
  117
  171
  171
  172
  172
  173
  173
  173
  173
  172
  157
  157
  157
  157
  157
  157
  157
  155
  152
  148
  145
  141
  138
  134
  129
  125
  120
  115
  110
  104
Change in working capital, $m
  -399
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Cash from operations, $m
  125
  110
  163
  162
  162
  161
  160
  160
  159
  158
  155
  140
  138
  137
  136
  135
  133
  132
  128
  123
  118
  113
  108
  103
  97
  90
  84
  77
  70
  62
  54
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -87
  -89
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -272
New CAPEX, $m
  -172
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -132
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -211
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -288
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -349
  -366
  -385
  -404
Free cash flow, $m
  -86
  7
  54
  48
  43
  37
  30
  23
  16
  9
  -1
  -24
  -33
  -42
  -52
  -62
  -73
  -85
  -99
  -115
  -131
  -149
  -167
  -186
  -206
  -227
  -249
  -272
  -297
  -323
  -350
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  318
  -457
  90
  103
  116
  129
  141
  154
  166
  179
  192
  206
  220
  234
  249
  264
  280
  296
  313
  331
  349
  368
  388
  409
  431
  454
  478
  503
  530
  557
  586
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  575
  0
  0
  0
  1
  5
  10
  15
  20
  27
  0
  0
  1
  8
  16
  24
  32
  44
  56
  69
  83
  98
  113
  129
  146
  164
  183
  203
  224
  246
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  202
  118
  90
  103
  116
  130
  146
  164
  181
  199
  219
  206
  220
  235
  257
  280
  304
  328
  357
  387
  418
  451
  486
  522
  560
  600
  642
  686
  733
  781
  832
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  101
  126
  144
  152
  159
  166
  176
  187
  197
  208
  218
  182
  187
  192
  204
  217
  230
  243
  257
  272
  287
  303
  319
  337
  355
  374
  393
  414
  436
  458
  482
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  789
  -575
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -27
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -44
  -56
  -69
  -83
  -98
  -113
  -129
  -146
  -164
  -183
  -203
  -224
  -246
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -449
  134
  140
  146
  152
  161
  170
  179
  188
  191
  159
  162
  166
  177
  188
  199
  210
  213
  216
  218
  220
  222
  224
  226
  227
  229
  231
  233
  235
  237
Discount rate, %
 
  9.50
  9.98
  10.47
  11.00
  11.55
  12.12
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.47
  16.25
  17.06
  17.91
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.77
  22.86
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.79
  29.18
  30.64
  32.17
  33.78
  35.47
  37.24
  39.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -410
  111
  104
  96
  88
  81
  73
  65
  58
  48
  33
  27
  21
  18
  14
  11
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  49.9
  49.4
  48.5
  47.1
  45.5
  43.4
  43.4
  43.4
  43.3
  42.8
  41.8
  40.5
  38.8
  36.7
  34.3
  31.7
  29.0
  26.2
  23.4
  20.8
  18.3
  15.9
  13.8
  11.8
  10.0
  8.5

R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company enables organizations to communicate by creating, managing, producing, distributing, and processing content on behalf of its customers. The company operates through Publishing and Retail Services, Variable Print, Strategic Services, and International segments. Its product offerings primarily consist of magazines, catalogs, retail inserts, commercial and digital print, books, financial print, statement printing, direct mail, labels, office products, packaging, forms, manuals, and other related products. The company’s service offerings primarily comprise logistics, EDGAR-related and eXtensible Business Reporting Language financial services, business outsourcing services, and digital and creative solutions. It also offers outsourcing capabilities, including product configuration, customized kitting, and order fulfillment for technology, medical device, and other companies. The company distributes its products to end-users through the United States or foreign postal services, as well as through retail channels, electronically, or by direct shipment to customer facilities. It has operations in Europe, Asia, and North America. R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company was formerly known as CMCo. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  R.R. Donnelley&Sons (RRD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.7
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book -8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -18.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 81
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -2244.3%
Total Debt to Equity -2251.9%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital -18.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Return On Equity -171.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.1%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
EBITDA Margin 2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Operating Margin -4.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Net Profit Margin -7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 2.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.2%
Payout Ratio -34.9%

RRD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RRD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6896 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by R.R. Donnelley&Sons. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of R.R. Donnelley&Sons. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RRD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.5%, whose default value for RRD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of R.R. Donnelley&Sons, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of R.R. Donnelley&Sons.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RRD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RRD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.4% for R.R. Donnelley&Sons.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for R.R. Donnelley&Sons. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RRD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RRD are equal to 12.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in R.R. Donnelley&Sons operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RRD is equal to 4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-106 million for R.R. Donnelley&Sons - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 64.852 million for R.R. Donnelley&Sons is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of R.R. Donnelley&Sons at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ RRD Awarded an Agreement with Vizient   [Jul-05-17 09:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Shares of R.R. Donnelly & Sons Surged Today   [May-03-17 12:09PM  Motley Fool]
▶ R.R. Donnelley reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ RRD Recognized By IDGs CIO As A CIO 100 Award Winner   [May-01-17 09:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ RR Donnelley Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-06-17 04:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ RR Donnelley Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-18-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling RR Donnelley & Sons Co (RRD)   [Dec-06-16 11:30AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ RR Donnelley Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-27-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ What Happened to RR Donnelly & Sons Co Stock Today   [Oct-03-16 08:46PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of RRD Financial statements of RRD Annual reports of RRD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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