Intrinsic value of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - RRGB

Previous Close

$64.50

  Intrinsic Value

$32.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-49%

  Value-price divergence*

-26%

Previous close

$64.50

 
Intrinsic value

$32.95

 
Up/down potential

-49%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-26%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RRGB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.02
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  1,296
  1,350
  1,408
  1,470
  1,534
  1,603
  1,676
  1,752
  1,833
  1,919
  2,009
  2,103
  2,203
  2,308
  2,419
  2,536
  2,658
  2,787
  2,923
  3,066
  3,216
  3,373
  3,539
  3,713
  3,896
  4,088
  4,291
  4,503
  4,726
  4,960
  5,206
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,278
  1,333
  1,390
  1,451
  1,516
  1,584
  1,656
  1,732
  1,812
  1,897
  1,976
  2,070
  2,169
  2,273
  2,383
  2,498
  2,619
  2,746
  2,880
  3,021
  3,169
  3,325
  3,489
  3,661
  3,841
  4,031
  4,231
  4,440
  4,661
  4,892
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,285
  1,278
  1,333
  1,390
  1,451
  1,516
  1,584
  1,656
  1,732
  1,812
  1,897
  1,976
  2,070
  2,169
  2,273
  2,383
  2,498
  2,619
  2,746
  2,880
  3,021
  3,169
  3,325
  3,489
  3,661
  3,841
  4,031
  4,231
  4,440
  4,661
  4,892
Operating income, $m
  12
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  168
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  285
  300
  315
EBITDA, $m
  99
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  285
  298
  313
  328
  344
  361
  379
  397
  417
  437
  459
  481
  505
  530
  557
  584
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
Net income, $m
  12
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  919
  945
  985
  1,028
  1,074
  1,122
  1,173
  1,226
  1,283
  1,343
  1,406
  1,472
  1,542
  1,615
  1,693
  1,774
  1,860
  1,951
  2,045
  2,145
  2,250
  2,361
  2,477
  2,598
  2,726
  2,861
  3,002
  3,151
  3,307
  3,471
  3,643
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  907
  945
  985
  1,028
  1,074
  1,122
  1,173
  1,226
  1,283
  1,343
  1,406
  1,472
  1,542
  1,615
  1,693
  1,774
  1,860
  1,951
  2,045
  2,145
  2,250
  2,361
  2,477
  2,598
  2,726
  2,861
  3,002
  3,151
  3,307
  3,471
  3,643
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.430
  1.428
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.430
  1.429
  1.428
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
Average production assets, $m
  671
  700
  729
  761
  795
  830
  868
  908
  950
  994
  1,040
  1,090
  1,141
  1,196
  1,253
  1,314
  1,377
  1,444
  1,514
  1,588
  1,666
  1,747
  1,833
  1,923
  2,018
  2,118
  2,222
  2,332
  2,448
  2,569
  2,697
Working capital, $m
  -48
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
Total debt, $m
  347
  371
  397
  424
  452
  483
  515
  549
  584
  622
  662
  703
  747
  794
  843
  894
  948
  1,005
  1,065
  1,128
  1,194
  1,263
  1,336
  1,413
  1,494
  1,578
  1,668
  1,761
  1,859
  1,963
  2,071
Total liabilities, $m
  570
  595
  621
  648
  676
  707
  739
  773
  808
  846
  886
  927
  971
  1,018
  1,067
  1,118
  1,172
  1,229
  1,289
  1,352
  1,418
  1,487
  1,560
  1,637
  1,718
  1,802
  1,892
  1,985
  2,083
  2,187
  2,295
Total equity, $m
  348
  350
  365
  380
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  497
  520
  545
  570
  598
  626
  657
  688
  722
  757
  794
  833
  873
  916
  961
  1,009
  1,059
  1,111
  1,166
  1,224
  1,284
  1,348
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  918
  945
  986
  1,028
  1,073
  1,122
  1,173
  1,227
  1,283
  1,343
  1,406
  1,472
  1,541
  1,616
  1,693
  1,775
  1,860
  1,951
  2,046
  2,146
  2,251
  2,360
  2,476
  2,598
  2,727
  2,861
  3,003
  3,151
  3,307
  3,471
  3,643
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.997
  1.060
  1.090
  1.110
  1.140
  1.160
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  87
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
Funds from operations, $m
  78
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  172
  179
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  428
  449
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from operations, $m
  99
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  183
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
  418
  439
  460
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
New CAPEX, $m
  -164
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -128
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -199
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -177
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -273
  -287
  -302
  -317
  -332
  -349
  -366
  -385
Free cash flow, $m
  -100
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  133
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  89
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -11
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  26
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  53
  41
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  49
  36
  34
  33
  31
  29
  27
  24
  22
  20
  17
  15
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises casual-dining and fast-casual restaurants in the United States and Canada. As of February 21, 2017, it operated approximately 551 Red Robin restaurants. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 69
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 99.7%
Total Debt to Equity 99.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Equity 3.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Operating Margin 0.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate -140%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

RRGB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RRGB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1296 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RRGB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for RRGB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RRGB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RRGB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RRGB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RRGB are equal to 51.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Red Robin Gourmet Burgers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RRGB is equal to -4.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $348 million for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.396 million for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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Stock chart of RRGB Financial statements of RRGB Annual reports of RRGB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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