Intrinsic value of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - RRGB

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$59.25

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$59.25

 
Intrinsic value

$33.59

 
Up/down potential

-43%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RRGB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.02
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,296
  1,322
  1,352
  1,387
  1,426
  1,469
  1,517
  1,568
  1,624
  1,685
  1,749
  1,818
  1,892
  1,971
  2,054
  2,143
  2,237
  2,336
  2,441
  2,552
  2,670
  2,793
  2,924
  3,061
  3,206
  3,359
  3,520
  3,689
  3,867
  4,054
  4,251
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,252
  1,280
  1,313
  1,350
  1,390
  1,435
  1,483
  1,536
  1,592
  1,653
  1,709
  1,778
  1,852
  1,930
  2,013
  2,102
  2,195
  2,294
  2,398
  2,508
  2,625
  2,747
  2,877
  3,013
  3,156
  3,307
  3,466
  3,633
  3,809
  3,994
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,285
  1,252
  1,280
  1,313
  1,350
  1,390
  1,435
  1,483
  1,536
  1,592
  1,653
  1,709
  1,778
  1,852
  1,930
  2,013
  2,102
  2,195
  2,294
  2,398
  2,508
  2,625
  2,747
  2,877
  3,013
  3,156
  3,307
  3,466
  3,633
  3,809
  3,994
Operating income, $m
  12
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
EBITDA, $m
  99
  159
  162
  166
  171
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  320
  335
  351
  367
  385
  403
  422
  442
  464
  486
  510
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  176
  185
  193
  202
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
Net income, $m
  12
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  919
  925
  946
  971
  998
  1,028
  1,061
  1,098
  1,137
  1,179
  1,224
  1,272
  1,324
  1,379
  1,438
  1,500
  1,565
  1,635
  1,708
  1,786
  1,868
  1,955
  2,046
  2,142
  2,244
  2,351
  2,463
  2,582
  2,706
  2,837
  2,975
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  907
  925
  946
  971
  998
  1,028
  1,061
  1,098
  1,137
  1,179
  1,224
  1,272
  1,324
  1,379
  1,438
  1,500
  1,565
  1,635
  1,708
  1,786
  1,868
  1,955
  2,046
  2,142
  2,244
  2,351
  2,463
  2,582
  2,706
  2,837
  2,975
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.428
  1.429
  1.429
  1.430
  1.428
  1.428
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.428
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
  1.429
Average production assets, $m
  671
  685
  701
  719
  739
  761
  786
  812
  841
  873
  906
  942
  980
  1,021
  1,064
  1,110
  1,159
  1,210
  1,265
  1,322
  1,383
  1,447
  1,515
  1,586
  1,661
  1,740
  1,823
  1,911
  2,003
  2,100
  2,202
Working capital, $m
  -48
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -196
Total debt, $m
  347
  359
  372
  388
  405
  424
  445
  467
  492
  519
  547
  578
  610
  645
  682
  721
  762
  806
  852
  901
  953
  1,008
  1,065
  1,126
  1,190
  1,257
  1,328
  1,402
  1,481
  1,563
  1,650
Total liabilities, $m
  570
  583
  596
  612
  629
  648
  669
  691
  716
  743
  771
  802
  834
  869
  906
  945
  986
  1,030
  1,076
  1,125
  1,177
  1,232
  1,289
  1,350
  1,414
  1,481
  1,552
  1,626
  1,705
  1,787
  1,874
Total equity, $m
  348
  342
  350
  359
  369
  380
  393
  406
  421
  436
  453
  471
  490
  510
  532
  555
  579
  605
  632
  661
  691
  723
  757
  793
  830
  870
  911
  955
  1,001
  1,050
  1,101
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  918
  925
  946
  971
  998
  1,028
  1,062
  1,097
  1,137
  1,179
  1,224
  1,273
  1,324
  1,379
  1,438
  1,500
  1,565
  1,635
  1,708
  1,786
  1,868
  1,955
  2,046
  2,143
  2,244
  2,351
  2,463
  2,581
  2,706
  2,837
  2,975
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.997
  1.050
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  87
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  108
  113
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
Funds from operations, $m
  78
  131
  134
  137
  140
  145
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  174
  181
  189
  196
  205
  213
  223
  232
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  348
  365
  382
  401
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  99
  159
  135
  138
  142
  147
  151
  156
  162
  167
  174
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  283
  296
  310
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
New CAPEX, $m
  -164
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -199
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -283
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
Free cash flow, $m
  -100
  68
  41
  40
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  40
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  41
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  133
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  78
  83
  87
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  89
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  78
  83
  87
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -11
  80
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  68
  71
  74
  76
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  26
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  86
  46
  46
  47
  47
  48
  48
  49
  50
  52
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  80
  40
  37
  35
  32
  29
  27
  24
  22
  19
  16
  14
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises casual-dining and fast-casual restaurants in the United States and Canada. As of February 21, 2017, it operated approximately 551 Red Robin restaurants. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 99.7%
Total Debt to Equity 99.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Equity 3.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Operating Margin 0.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate -140%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

RRGB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RRGB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1296 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RRGB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for RRGB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RRGB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RRGB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RRGB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RRGB are equal to 51.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Red Robin Gourmet Burgers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RRGB is equal to -4.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $348 million for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.059 million for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Red Robin to Present at Investor Conferences in March   [Feb-24-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Weak NFL Ratings Are Taking Bite From Buffalo Wild Wings   [Jan-26-17 01:47PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Red Robin Challenges Milo Ventimiglia to Lose the Bun   [Jan-03-17 09:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Red Robin Turns to Delivery to Rev Up Sales   [01:59PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Dumping Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB)   [Dec-11-16 09:57AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Can Habit Restaurants Keep Going After Last Week's 15% Pop?   [Nov-27-16 10:00AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Wendy's Jumps on Latest Trend; Beer and Burgers   [Nov-21-16 09:48AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Struggling Red Robin launches new marketing campaign   [Oct-20-16 04:17PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ What Red Robin Is Aiming for with New Ad Campaign   [Oct-19-16 01:05PM  at Investopedia]
Stock chart of RRGB Financial statements of RRGB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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