Intrinsic value of Resource Capital - RSO

Previous Close

$10.44

  Intrinsic Value

$12.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+20%

  Value-price divergence*

+62%

Previous close

$10.44

 
Intrinsic value

$12.57

 
Up/down potential

+20%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+62%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as RSO.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RSO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -17.81
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.08
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  120
  132
  144
  156
  170
  183
  198
  212
  228
  244
  260
  278
  296
  314
  334
  354
  375
  397
  420
  444
  469
  496
  523
  551
  581
  613
  645
  679
  715
  753
  792
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  186
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
Total operating expenses, $m
  131
  139
  145
  150
  156
  161
  167
  173
  179
  186
  192
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  237
  245
  254
  262
  272
  281
  291
  302
  313
  324
  335
  346
  359
  372
  385
Operating income, $m
  -10
  -7
  0
  7
  15
  23
  31
  40
  49
  58
  68
  79
  90
  101
  113
  125
  138
  152
  167
  182
  197
  214
  231
  250
  269
  289
  310
  333
  356
  381
  407
EBITDA, $m
  -10
  -7
  0
  7
  15
  23
  31
  40
  49
  59
  69
  79
  90
  102
  114
  126
  139
  153
  167
  183
  198
  215
  232
  251
  270
  290
  312
  334
  358
  383
  409
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  276
  291
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -5
  0
  5
  10
  16
  22
  28
  35
  42
  50
  58
  66
  75
  84
  95
  105
  117
Tax expense, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
Net income, $m
  -30
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -5
  0
  3
  7
  11
  16
  21
  25
  31
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  116
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,054
  2,123
  2,319
  2,523
  2,736
  2,957
  3,187
  3,426
  3,674
  3,933
  4,201
  4,480
  4,770
  5,072
  5,386
  5,713
  6,054
  6,409
  6,780
  7,167
  7,571
  7,992
  8,433
  8,894
  9,376
  9,879
  10,407
  10,959
  11,537
  12,142
  12,776
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,938
  2,123
  2,319
  2,523
  2,736
  2,957
  3,187
  3,426
  3,674
  3,933
  4,201
  4,480
  4,770
  5,072
  5,386
  5,713
  6,054
  6,409
  6,780
  7,167
  7,571
  7,992
  8,433
  8,894
  9,376
  9,879
  10,407
  10,959
  11,537
  12,142
  12,776
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
  0.062
Average production assets, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Working capital, $m
  0
  -127
  -139
  -151
  -164
  -177
  -191
  -205
  -220
  -236
  -252
  -269
  -286
  -304
  -323
  -343
  -363
  -384
  -406
  -430
  -454
  -479
  -506
  -533
  -562
  -592
  -624
  -657
  -692
  -728
  -766
Total debt, $m
  1,191
  1,321
  1,457
  1,600
  1,748
  1,902
  2,062
  2,229
  2,402
  2,582
  2,769
  2,963
  3,166
  3,376
  3,595
  3,823
  4,061
  4,308
  4,567
  4,836
  5,118
  5,412
  5,719
  6,040
  6,376
  6,727
  7,095
  7,479
  7,882
  8,304
  8,746
Total liabilities, $m
  1,349
  1,480
  1,616
  1,759
  1,907
  2,061
  2,221
  2,388
  2,561
  2,741
  2,928
  3,122
  3,325
  3,535
  3,754
  3,982
  4,220
  4,467
  4,726
  4,995
  5,277
  5,571
  5,878
  6,199
  6,535
  6,886
  7,254
  7,638
  8,041
  8,463
  8,905
Total equity, $m
  704
  643
  703
  765
  829
  896
  966
  1,038
  1,113
  1,192
  1,273
  1,357
  1,445
  1,537
  1,632
  1,731
  1,834
  1,942
  2,054
  2,172
  2,294
  2,422
  2,555
  2,695
  2,841
  2,993
  3,153
  3,320
  3,496
  3,679
  3,871
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,053
  2,123
  2,319
  2,524
  2,736
  2,957
  3,187
  3,426
  3,674
  3,933
  4,201
  4,479
  4,770
  5,072
  5,386
  5,713
  6,054
  6,409
  6,780
  7,167
  7,571
  7,993
  8,433
  8,894
  9,376
  9,879
  10,407
  10,958
  11,537
  12,142
  12,776
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.692
  2.050
  2.070
  2.090
  2.110
  2.120
  2.140
  2.150
  2.160
  2.170
  2.180
  2.180
  2.190
  2.200
  2.200
  2.210
  2.210
  2.220
  2.220
  2.230
  2.230
  2.230
  2.240
  2.240
  2.240
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.260
  2.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303
  0.303

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -30
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -39
  -36
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -5
  0
  3
  7
  11
  16
  21
  25
  31
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  -49
  -46
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -29
  -25
  -21
  -18
  -13
  -9
  -4
  0
  4
  8
  12
  17
  22
  26
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  78
  87
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
Cash from operations, $m
  42
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -5
  -1
  4
  9
  14
  20
  25
  29
  35
  40
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  115
  125
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Free cash flow, $m
  285
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -22
  -18
  -15
  -11
  -6
  -2
  3
  8
  13
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  44
  50
  57
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  103
  112
  122
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  119
  130
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  258
  270
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -12
  104
  106
  106
  106
  106
  105
  105
  104
  104
  103
  103
  102
  101
  100
  100
  100
  100
  101
  101
  102
  102
  103
  103
  104
  105
  105
  106
  106
  107
  107
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -170
  234
  243
  248
  254
  260
  265
  272
  277
  284
  290
  297
  304
  311
  319
  328
  338
  348
  359
  371
  383
  396
  410
  424
  440
  456
  473
  491
  509
  529
  549
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  114
  196
  207
  216
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  273
  284
  295
  307
  320
  333
  346
  361
  376
  392
  410
  428
  447
  467
  488
  510
  534
  558
  584
  612
  641
  671
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  115
  -104
  -106
  -106
  -106
  -106
  -105
  -105
  -104
  -104
  -103
  -103
  -102
  -101
  -100
  -100
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  116
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  208
  101
  110
  119
  129
  138
  148
  159
  169
  181
  193
  205
  218
  232
  247
  258
  269
  280
  292
  305
  319
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  417
  437
  457
  479
Discount rate, %
 
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  189
  83
  80
  77
  72
  67
  61
  55
  48
  42
  36
  30
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  79.8
  64.6
  53.1
  44.3
  37.5
  32.1
  27.8
  24.3
  21.5
  19.1
  17.1
  15.5
  14.1
  12.9
  11.8
  10.9
  10.1
  9.4
  8.8
  8.3
  7.8
  7.3
  6.9
  6.6
  6.2
  5.9
  5.7
  5.4
  5.2
  5.0

Resource Capital Corp. is a real estate finance company. The Company operates through four segments: Commercial Real Estate Debt Investments, Commercial Finance, Residential Mortgage Lending and Corporate & Other. The Commercial Real Estate Debt Investments segment includes the Company's activities and operations related to commercial real estate loans, commercial real estate-related securities and investments in real estate. The Commercial Finance segment includes the Company's activities and operations related to syndicated corporate loans, syndicated corporate loan-related securities and direct financing leases. The Residential Mortgage Lending segment includes the Company's activities and operations related to the investment in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Resource Capital (RSO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -10.8
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -17.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 169.2%
Total Debt to Equity 169.2%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital -1.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -3.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.6%
EBITDA Margin 39.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.9%
Operating Margin -9.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Net Profit Margin -25%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Payout Ratio -256.7%

RSO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RSO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $120 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Resource Capital. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Resource Capital. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RSO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for RSO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Resource Capital, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Resource Capital.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RSO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $111 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RSO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Resource Capital.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Resource Capital. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RSO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RSO are equal to 2.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Resource Capital operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RSO is equal to -96.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $704 million for Resource Capital - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.874 million for Resource Capital is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Resource Capital at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ What Is Resource Capital Corps (RSO) Share Price Doing?   [Sep-19-17 04:03PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Resource Capital posts 2Q profit   [Aug-03-17 10:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Resource Capital Corp. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jun-19-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Resource Capital posts 1Q profit   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Resource Capital Corp. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Mar-20-17 04:01PM  Marketwired]
▶ Resource Capital reports 4Q loss   [05:44AM  Associated Press]
▶ Resource Capital Corp. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Dec-15-16 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ How Navigator Holdings Ltd (NVGS) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-13-16 01:47AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Resource Capital Corp. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Sep-19-16 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Resource Capital Corp. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jun-16-16 04:01PM  Marketwired]
▶ Local asset manager agrees to be sold to Texas company for $270M   [May-23-16 11:15AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Resource Capital Corp. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Mar-17-16 09:00AM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of RSO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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