Intrinsic value of Rosetta Stone - RST

Previous Close

$9.41

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-157%

Previous close

$9.41

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-157%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.01
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  194
  198
  202
  208
  213
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  400
  418
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
  636
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  237
  242
  248
  255
  262
  271
  280
  290
  300
  311
  319
  332
  346
  360
  376
  392
  410
  428
  448
  468
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  647
  678
  711
  745
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  221
  237
  242
  248
  255
  262
  271
  280
  290
  300
  311
  319
  332
  346
  360
  376
  392
  410
  428
  448
  468
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  647
  678
  711
  745
Operating income, $m
  -27
  -39
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
EBITDA, $m
  -14
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -93
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
Earnings before tax, $m
  -25
  -39
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -28
  -39
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  194
  198
  202
  208
  213
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  400
  418
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
  636
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  158
  198
  202
  208
  213
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  400
  418
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
  636
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.228
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
Average production assets, $m
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  154
  161
Working capital, $m
  -66
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
Total debt, $m
  3
  -15
  -11
  -6
  -1
  5
  11
  18
  26
  34
  43
  52
  62
  73
  84
  96
  108
  122
  136
  151
  167
  183
  201
  219
  239
  260
  281
  304
  328
  353
  380
Total liabilities, $m
  196
  178
  182
  187
  192
  198
  204
  211
  219
  227
  236
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  412
  432
  453
  474
  497
  521
  546
  573
Total equity, $m
  -2
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  194
  198
  202
  208
  213
  220
  227
  234
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  296
  308
  321
  334
  350
  366
  382
  400
  418
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
  637
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.500
  -0.750
  -0.530
  -0.300
  -0.040
  0.230
  0.500
  0.780
  1.060
  1.350
  1.630
  1.910
  2.190
  2.460
  2.720
  2.980
  3.240
  3.480
  3.720
  3.950
  4.170
  4.380
  4.590
  4.790
  4.980
  5.160
  5.340
  5.500
  5.670
  5.820
  5.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.241
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -28
  -39
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  -29
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  -18
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  61
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  43
  43
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  58
  61
  65
  67
  71
  75
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  151
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -12
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  24
  -61
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -52
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -50
  -28
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  16.7
  5.6
  1.9
  0.6
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Rosetta Stone Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-based learning products in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Enterprise & Education and Consumer. The company develops, markets, and supports a suite of language-learning, literacy, and brain fitness solutions consisting of software products, Web-based software subscriptions, online and professional services, audio practice tools, and mobile applications. It also provides Rosetta Stone kids mobile applications that provide technology-based learning solutions for children that focus on early childhood language and literacy; administrator tools; and custom solutions, including curriculum development, worldwide collaboration programs, and language courses for mission-critical government programs. The company offers its courses in 30 languages under the Rosetta Stone, The Blue Stone Logo, Livemocha, Lexia Learning, Lexia, and Fit Brains brands. Rosetta Stone Inc. sells its products and services through call centers, Websites, third party e-commerce Websites, home shopping networks, consignment distributors, select retail resellers, daily deal partners, and third-party resellers, as well as directly to individuals, educational institutions, corporations, and government agencies. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rosetta Stone (RST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.5
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book -105.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 211.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -17.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 36
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -100%
Total Debt to Equity -150%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -13.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -19%
Return On Total Capital -215.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -130.8%
Return On Equity -280%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -155.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.5%
EBITDA Margin -6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Operating Margin -13.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.5%
Net Profit Margin -14.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.4%
Effective Tax Rate -12%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

RST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $194 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rosetta Stone. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Rosetta Stone. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rosetta Stone, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rosetta Stone.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 119.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Rosetta Stone.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rosetta Stone. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RST are equal to 25.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rosetta Stone operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RST is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-2 million for Rosetta Stone - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.952 million for Rosetta Stone is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rosetta Stone at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Oui! Rosetta Stone Offers 50% Upside   [07:49AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Duolingo Approaches Tech "Unicorn" Status   [Aug-06-17 10:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ John Rogers of Ariel Fund Reduces 4 Positions   [Jun-09-17 07:08PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Why Rosetta (RST) Could Shock the Market Soon   [May-23-17 08:53AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Rosetta Stone, Inc. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 04:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Rosetta Stone's turnaround effort hits a new milestone   [06:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Rosetta Stone posts 1Q profit   [May-09-17 09:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Rosetta Stone Wins Best Educational App Award   [Apr-17-17 09:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ These Retailers Can Survive the Mall Apocalypse   [Mar-30-17 01:18PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Rosetta Stone to Host 2017 Investor Day on May 9   [Mar-20-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Rosetta Stone Inc (RST) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-10-16 10:08PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Rosetta Stone reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-16 07:14AM  AP]
Stock chart of RST Financial statements of RST
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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