Intrinsic value of Rosetta Stone - RST

Previous Close

$12.35

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$12.35

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.01
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  194
  198
  202
  208
  213
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  400
  418
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
  636
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  237
  242
  248
  255
  262
  271
  280
  290
  300
  311
  319
  332
  346
  360
  376
  392
  410
  428
  448
  468
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  647
  678
  711
  745
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  221
  237
  242
  248
  255
  262
  271
  280
  290
  300
  311
  319
  332
  346
  360
  376
  392
  410
  428
  448
  468
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  647
  678
  711
  745
Operating income, $m
  -27
  -39
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
EBITDA, $m
  -14
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -88
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
Earnings before tax, $m
  -25
  -39
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -28
  -39
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  194
  161
  165
  169
  174
  179
  185
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  341
  356
  373
  391
  409
  429
  450
  471
  494
  518
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  158
  161
  165
  169
  174
  179
  185
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  341
  356
  373
  391
  409
  429
  450
  471
  494
  518
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.228
  1.230
  1.224
  1.231
  1.224
  1.229
  1.227
  1.230
  1.227
  1.229
  1.230
  1.225
  1.225
  1.229
  1.232
  1.230
  1.227
  1.228
  1.225
  1.228
  1.231
  1.226
  1.230
  1.228
  1.228
  1.230
  1.228
  1.227
  1.229
  1.229
  1.228
Average production assets, $m
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  154
  161
Working capital, $m
  -66
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -316
  -332
Total debt, $m
  3
  -48
  -45
  -41
  -37
  -32
  -27
  -21
  -15
  -8
  -1
  6
  15
  23
  32
  42
  52
  63
  75
  87
  100
  113
  128
  143
  159
  176
  193
  212
  231
  252
  273
Total liabilities, $m
  196
  145
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  185
  192
  199
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  424
  445
  466
Total equity, $m
  -2
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  194
  161
  164
  169
  173
  179
  184
  191
  198
  206
  213
  221
  231
  240
  250
  261
  272
  284
  298
  311
  326
  340
  357
  373
  391
  410
  429
  450
  471
  494
  518
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.500
  -2.980
  -2.710
  -2.410
  -2.100
  -1.780
  -1.440
  -1.090
  -0.750
  -0.400
  -0.050
  0.290
  0.630
  0.970
  1.290
  1.610
  1.920
  2.220
  2.510
  2.800
  3.070
  3.330
  3.590
  3.830
  4.060
  4.290
  4.500
  4.710
  4.910
  5.090
  5.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.241
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -28
  -39
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  -27
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  -25
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -27
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -33
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  -50
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  92
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  42
  41
  43
  44
  47
  48
  51
  52
  55
  57
  55
  58
  61
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  81
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -12
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  24
  -92
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  35
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -48
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -46
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  14.8
  4.4
  1.3
  0.4
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Rosetta Stone Inc. (Rosetta Stone) offers personalized language and reading programs. The Company's solutions are used by schools, businesses, government organizations and individuals around the world. Its segments include Enterprise & Education, which derives revenues from sales to educational institutions, corporations and government agencies worldwide, and Consumer, which derives revenue from sales to individuals and retail partners. Its cloud-based programs allow users to learn online or on-the-go via tablet or smartphone, whether in a classroom, corporate setting, or personal learning environment. Its Fit Brains business offers personalized brain training programs. The Company offers courses in over 30 languages across formats, including Web-based software subscriptions, digital downloads, mobile applications, and perpetual compact disc packages. It also offers a portfolio of technology-based learning products for personal use to the global consumer.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rosetta Stone (RST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -9.9
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book -138.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 277.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -23.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 36
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -100%
Total Debt to Equity -150%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -13.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -19%
Return On Total Capital -215.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -130.8%
Return On Equity -280%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -155.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.5%
EBITDA Margin -6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Operating Margin -13.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.5%
Net Profit Margin -14.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.4%
Effective Tax Rate -12%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

RST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $194 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rosetta Stone. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Rosetta Stone. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rosetta Stone, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rosetta Stone.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 119.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Rosetta Stone.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rosetta Stone. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RST are equal to 25.3%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rosetta Stone operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RST is equal to -52.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-2 million for Rosetta Stone - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22.286 million for Rosetta Stone is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rosetta Stone at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Rosetta Stone reports 3Q loss   [05:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ Rosetta Stone Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-02-17 04:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Should You Be Holding Rosetta Stone Inc (RST) Right Now?   [Sep-30-17 06:57PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Lexia Learning Releases iPad App for Lexia RAPID Assessment   [Sep-07-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Schlumberger, Nathan's Famous rise; BofA, Nvidia fall   [Sep-05-17 04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Oui! Rosetta Stone Offers 50% Upside   [07:49AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Duolingo Approaches Tech "Unicorn" Status   [Aug-06-17 10:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ John Rogers of Ariel Fund Reduces 4 Positions   [Jun-09-17 07:08PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Why Rosetta (RST) Could Shock the Market Soon   [May-23-17 08:53AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Rosetta Stone, Inc. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 04:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Rosetta Stone's turnaround effort hits a new milestone   [06:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Rosetta Stone posts 1Q profit   [May-09-17 09:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Rosetta Stone Wins Best Educational App Award   [Apr-17-17 09:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ These Retailers Can Survive the Mall Apocalypse   [Mar-30-17 01:18PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Rosetta Stone to Host 2017 Investor Day on May 9   [Mar-20-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Rosetta Stone Inc (RST) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-10-16 10:08PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of RST
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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