Intrinsic value of Radisys - RSYS

Previous Close

$1.31

  Intrinsic Value

$0.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$1.31

 
Intrinsic value

$0.37

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RSYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.59
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  212
  216
  221
  227
  233
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  286
  297
  310
  322
  336
  351
  366
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  478
  501
  525
  549
  576
  603
  633
  663
  695
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  185
  189
  194
  199
  205
  212
  219
  227
  235
  244
  254
  264
  275
  287
  299
  312
  326
  341
  357
  373
  390
  408
  428
  448
  469
  492
  515
  540
  566
  594
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
Total operating expenses, $m
  222
  228
  233
  239
  245
  253
  261
  269
  278
  287
  298
  309
  320
  333
  346
  360
  374
  390
  407
  424
  442
  461
  480
  502
  524
  547
  572
  597
  624
  652
  682
Operating income, $m
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -1
  1
  2
  4
  6
  9
  11
  13
EBITDA, $m
  7
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
Tax expense, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
Net income, $m
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  7

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  128
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  312
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  312
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.232
  2.227
  2.232
  2.225
  2.219
  2.222
  2.234
  2.235
  2.235
  2.244
  2.234
  2.233
  2.230
  2.236
  2.225
  2.236
  2.232
  2.234
  2.229
  2.235
  2.230
  2.229
  2.234
  2.237
  2.234
  2.232
  2.233
  2.233
  2.237
  2.232
  2.228
Average production assets, $m
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
Working capital, $m
  33
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Total debt, $m
  25
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
Total liabilities, $m
  72
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
Total equity, $m
  57
  50
  51
  52
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  129
  97
  99
  101
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  124
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  271
  283
  297
  312
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.439
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.090
  0.110
  0.140
  0.160
  0.190
  0.220
  0.240
  0.270
  0.300
  0.320
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  7
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  9
  11
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  10
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -24
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  14
  13
  12
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  1
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  17
  17
  17
  17
  16
  16
  15
  14
  14
  13
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  9
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -4
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -3
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  77.9
  60.4
  46.7
  36.0
  27.9
  21.6
  16.8
  13.1
  10.3
  8.2
  6.6
  5.3
  4.3
  3.6
  3.0
  2.5
  2.1
  1.8
  1.6
  1.4
  1.3
  1.2
  1.1
  1.0
  1.0
  0.9
  0.9
  0.9
  0.9
  0.9

Radisys Corporation (Radisys) is a services acceleration company. The Company's application aware traffic distribution platforms, real-time media processing products and wireless access technologies enable service providers to virtualize and monetize their networks. The Company's products and services are organized into two segments: Software-Systems, and Embedded Products and Hardware Services. The Company's Software-Systems segment consists of three product families: FlowEngine, MediaEngine and CellEngine. Also included in the Software-Systems segment is its Professional Service organization. The Company's Embedded Products and Hardware Services segment provides customers with hardware based products targeted at the communications and healthcare markets. Products within this segment fall under primary categories, including T-Series Advanced Telecommunications Computing Architecture (ATCA) Platforms, Component Object Model (COM) Express and Rackmount Servers, and Other Products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Radisys (RSYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 150%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 43.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.4%
Return On Total Capital -12.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.9%
Return On Equity -16.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.1%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
EBITDA Margin 4.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Operating Margin -4.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.9%
Net Profit Margin -4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.1%
Effective Tax Rate -25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

RSYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RSYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $212 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Radisys. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Radisys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RSYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RSYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Radisys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Radisys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RSYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $42 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RSYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Radisys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Radisys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RSYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RSYS are equal to 14.4%.

Life of production assets of 1.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Radisys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RSYS is equal to 11.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $57 million for Radisys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.046 million for Radisys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Radisys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Radisys Announces Next-Generation DCEngine Hardware   [Sep-06-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RadiSys Corp. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 09:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Radisys to Present at Upcoming Financial Conferences   [Aug-03-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Radisys stock sinks on guidance slash   [Aug-02-17 04:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ RadiSys reports 2Q loss   [Aug-01-17 10:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Radisys Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [Jul-07-17 11:25AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Radisys Announces Preliminary Second Quarter 2017 Revenue   [Jul-06-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for June 29th   [Jun-29-17 09:38AM  Zacks]
▶ Radisys Maintains #1 Spot in MRF Market   [Jun-20-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RadiSys Corp. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RadiSys Corp. : May 5, 2017   [May-05-17 04:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ RadiSys reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Radisys Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RadiSys Corp. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RadiSys Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ How RadiSys Corporation (RSYS) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-14-16 11:53PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Radisys Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Radisys Secures Expanded Credit Agreement   [05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Radisys to Participate at Upcoming Financial Conferences   [Aug-09-16 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Radisys Reports Second Quarter 2016 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Radisys adds two new execs as its stock hits new heights   [Jun-20-16 03:20PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of RSYS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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