Intrinsic value of RTI Surgical - RTIX

Previous Close

$4.65

  Intrinsic Value

$1.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-67%

  Value-price divergence*

-31%

Previous close

$4.65

 
Intrinsic value

$1.53

 
Up/down potential

-67%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-31%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RTIX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.19
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
  411
  431
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  573
  601
  631
  662
  695
  729
  765
  803
  843
  884
  928
  974
  1,023
  1,074
  1,127
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  405
  424
  445
  467
  490
  514
  539
  565
  593
  622
  653
  685
  719
  755
  792
  832
  873
  916
  962
  1,010
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  289
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
  405
  424
  445
  467
  490
  514
  539
  565
  593
  622
  653
  685
  719
  755
  792
  832
  873
  916
  962
  1,010
Operating income, $m
  -16
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  107
  112
  117
EBITDA, $m
  1
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  134
  140
  147
  155
  162
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
Tax expense, $m
  -3
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
Net income, $m
  -14
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  368
  370
  387
  405
  423
  443
  464
  486
  509
  533
  559
  586
  614
  644
  676
  709
  743
  780
  818
  859
  901
  945
  992
  1,041
  1,093
  1,147
  1,204
  1,264
  1,327
  1,393
  1,462
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  354
  370
  387
  405
  423
  443
  464
  486
  509
  533
  559
  586
  614
  644
  676
  709
  743
  780
  818
  859
  901
  945
  992
  1,041
  1,093
  1,147
  1,204
  1,264
  1,327
  1,393
  1,462
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.771
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.771
  0.772
  0.772
  0.772
  0.772
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.772
  0.772
  0.771
  0.770
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
Average production assets, $m
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
  320
  336
  353
  370
  389
  408
  428
  450
Working capital, $m
  121
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  332
  349
  366
  384
  403
  423
  445
  467
Total debt, $m
  83
  83
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  156
  167
  178
  189
  202
  214
  228
  242
  257
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363
  384
  406
  429
  453
  479
  506
Total liabilities, $m
  143
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  249
  262
  274
  288
  302
  317
  332
  349
  366
  384
  403
  423
  444
  466
  489
  513
  539
  566
Total equity, $m
  225
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  284
  298
  312
  327
  343
  359
  377
  395
  414
  434
  456
  478
  502
  526
  552
  580
  608
  638
  670
  703
  738
  775
  813
  854
  896
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  368
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444
  464
  486
  509
  533
  559
  586
  615
  644
  676
  708
  744
  780
  819
  858
  901
  946
  992
  1,041
  1,093
  1,147
  1,204
  1,264
  1,326
  1,393
  1,462
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.369
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.596
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -14
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  15
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
Free cash flow, $m
  -3
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  13
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  16
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  15
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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RTI Surgical, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes orthopedic and other surgical implants for use in various surgical procedures worldwide. The company provides natural tissue implants, as well as metal and synthetic implants for the treatment of spinal and other orthopedic disorders. It processes donated human musculoskeletal and other tissues, including bone, cartilage, tendons, ligaments, fascia lata, pericardium, sclera, cornea, and dermal tissues, as well as bovine and porcine animal tissues to produce allograft and xenograft implants by using its proprietary BIOCLEANSE, TUTOPLAST, and CANCELLE SP sterilization processes. The company’s implants are used in the fields of spine, sports medicine, ortho fixation, bone graft substitutes and general orthopedic, surgical specialties, and dental. RTI Surgical, Inc. markets its products through its direct distribution force, as well as through a network of independent distributors to hospitals and surgeons. The company was formerly known as RTI Biologics, Inc. and changed its name to RTI Surgical, Inc. in July 2013. RTI Surgical, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Alachua, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RTI Surgical (RTIX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -19.3
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18
Price to Free Cash Flow -90
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -33.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 34.2%
Total Debt to Equity 36.9%
Interest Coverage -16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Total Capital -4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.8%
EBITDA Margin 0.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin -5.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Net Profit Margin -5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 17.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

RTIX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RTIX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $273 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RTI Surgical. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RTI Surgical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RTIX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for RTIX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RTI Surgical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RTI Surgical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RTIX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RTIX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for RTI Surgical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RTI Surgical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RTIX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RTIX are equal to 39.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RTI Surgical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RTIX is equal to 41.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $225 million for RTI Surgical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.908 million for RTI Surgical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RTI Surgical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ RTI Surgical reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 05:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 03:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 5 Stocks to Gain on New Analyst Coverage   [Jun-15-17 08:24AM  Zacks]
▶ RTI Surgical® Partners in New Manufacturing USA Institute   [Jun-02-17 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : May 5, 2017   [May-05-17 04:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ RTI Surgical reports 1Q loss   [Apr-27-17 09:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ RTI Surgical reports 4Q loss   [08:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ RTI Surgical Names Camille Farhat Chief Executive Officer   [Jan-26-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ RTI Surgical® Names Robert P. Jordheim Interim CEO   [Dec-14-16 08:02AM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Dumping RTI Surgical Inc (RTIX)   [07:27AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ RTI Surgical Announces CEO Brian Hutchison to Retire   [Aug-15-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Tampa lawyer with boardroom access sees troubling trend ahead   [Jun-02-16 02:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ RTI Issues Open Letter to Stockholders   [May-24-16 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ RTI SURGICAL, INC. Files SEC form 10-Q, Quarterly Report   [May-04-16 01:12PM  EDGAR Online]
Stock chart of RTIX Financial statements of RTIX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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