Intrinsic value of RTI Surgical - RTIX

Previous Close

$4.65

  Intrinsic Value

$1.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$4.65

 
Intrinsic value

$1.09

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RTIX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.19
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  273
  289
  306
  323
  342
  361
  381
  402
  423
  446
  470
  495
  521
  549
  577
  607
  639
  672
  707
  743
  781
  821
  863
  906
  953
  1,001
  1,052
  1,105
  1,161
  1,219
  1,281
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  264
  280
  295
  312
  329
  347
  365
  385
  405
  427
  444
  467
  492
  517
  544
  572
  602
  633
  665
  700
  735
  773
  812
  853
  897
  942
  990
  1,040
  1,092
  1,147
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  289
  264
  280
  295
  312
  329
  347
  365
  385
  405
  427
  444
  467
  492
  517
  544
  572
  602
  633
  665
  700
  735
  773
  812
  853
  897
  942
  990
  1,040
  1,092
  1,147
Operating income, $m
  -16
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
EBITDA, $m
  1
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
Tax expense, $m
  -3
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
Net income, $m
  -14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  368
  375
  397
  419
  443
  468
  494
  521
  549
  579
  610
  642
  676
  712
  749
  788
  829
  871
  916
  963
  1,013
  1,065
  1,119
  1,176
  1,235
  1,298
  1,364
  1,433
  1,505
  1,581
  1,661
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  354
  375
  397
  419
  443
  468
  494
  521
  549
  579
  610
  642
  676
  712
  749
  788
  829
  871
  916
  963
  1,013
  1,065
  1,119
  1,176
  1,235
  1,298
  1,364
  1,433
  1,505
  1,581
  1,661
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.772
  0.771
  0.771
  0.772
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.770
  0.770
  0.771
  0.772
  0.772
  0.772
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.770
  0.772
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
  0.771
Average production assets, $m
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  296
  312
  327
  344
  362
  380
  399
  420
  441
  463
  486
  511
Working capital, $m
  121
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  158
  166
  175
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
  251
  265
  278
  293
  308
  323
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  505
  530
Total debt, $m
  83
  85
  94
  102
  112
  121
  131
  142
  153
  164
  176
  189
  202
  215
  230
  245
  261
  277
  295
  313
  332
  352
  373
  395
  418
  442
  468
  495
  523
  552
  583
Total liabilities, $m
  143
  145
  154
  162
  172
  181
  191
  202
  213
  224
  236
  249
  262
  275
  290
  305
  321
  337
  355
  373
  392
  412
  433
  455
  478
  502
  528
  555
  583
  612
  643
Total equity, $m
  225
  230
  243
  257
  272
  287
  303
  319
  337
  355
  374
  394
  414
  436
  459
  483
  508
  534
  562
  591
  621
  653
  686
  721
  757
  796
  836
  878
  923
  969
  1,018
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  368
  375
  397
  419
  444
  468
  494
  521
  550
  579
  610
  643
  676
  711
  749
  788
  829
  871
  917
  964
  1,013
  1,065
  1,119
  1,176
  1,235
  1,298
  1,364
  1,433
  1,506
  1,581
  1,661
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.369
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.596
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Cash from operations, $m
  15
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -76
Free cash flow, $m
  -3
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  12
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  12
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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RTI Surgical, Inc. is engaged in producing orthopedic and other surgical implants that repair and promote the natural healing of human bone and other human tissues. The Company uses natural tissues, metals and synthetics process to produce its products. The Company's business primarily consists of six categories, such as spine, sports medicine, ortho fixation, bone graft substitutes and general orthopedic (BGS and general orthopedic), dental and surgical specialties. It processes donated human musculoskeletal and other tissue, including bone, cartilage, tendon, ligament, fascia lata, pericardium, sclera and dermal tissue, and bovine and porcine animal tissue in producing allograft and xenograft implants utilizing BIOCLEANSE, TUTOPLAST and CANCELLE SP sterilization processes, and manufactures metal and synthetic implants for distribution to hospitals and surgeons. The Company distributes its implants and services in approximately 50 states and in over 45 countries across the world.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RTI Surgical (RTIX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -19.3
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18
Price to Free Cash Flow -90
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -33.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 34.2%
Total Debt to Equity 36.9%
Interest Coverage -16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Total Capital -4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.8%
EBITDA Margin 0.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin -5.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Net Profit Margin -5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 17.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

RTIX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RTIX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $273 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RTI Surgical. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RTI Surgical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RTIX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for RTIX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RTI Surgical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RTI Surgical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RTIX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RTIX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for RTI Surgical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RTI Surgical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RTIX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RTIX are equal to 39.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RTI Surgical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RTIX is equal to 41.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $225 million for RTI Surgical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.51 million for RTI Surgical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RTI Surgical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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NUVA NuVasive 55.05 52.32  hold
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Be Holding RTI Surgical Inc (RTIX) Right Now?   [Oct-05-17 06:16PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ RTI Surgical reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 05:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 03:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 5 Stocks to Gain on New Analyst Coverage   [Jun-15-17 08:24AM  Zacks]
▶ RTI Surgical® Partners in New Manufacturing USA Institute   [Jun-02-17 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : May 5, 2017   [May-05-17 04:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ RTI Surgical reports 1Q loss   [Apr-27-17 09:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RTI Surgical, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ RTI Surgical reports 4Q loss   [08:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ RTI Surgical Names Camille Farhat Chief Executive Officer   [Jan-26-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ RTI Surgical® Names Robert P. Jordheim Interim CEO   [Dec-14-16 08:02AM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Dumping RTI Surgical Inc (RTIX)   [07:27AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ RTI Surgical Announces CEO Brian Hutchison to Retire   [Aug-15-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Tampa lawyer with boardroom access sees troubling trend ahead   [Jun-02-16 02:15PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ RTI Issues Open Letter to Stockholders   [May-24-16 07:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of RTIX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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