Intrinsic value of SunRun - RUN

Previous Close

$6.70

  Intrinsic Value

$1.47

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

  Value-price divergence*

+137%

Previous close

$6.70

 
Intrinsic value

$1.47

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+137%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RUN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  48.85
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  454
  477
  501
  527
  554
  582
  611
  642
  674
  708
  744
  782
  821
  862
  906
  951
  999
  1,049
  1,101
  1,157
  1,215
  1,276
  1,340
  1,407
  1,477
  1,551
  1,629
  1,710
  1,796
  1,886
  1,980
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  464
  487
  512
  537
  564
  592
  622
  653
  685
  719
  746
  784
  823
  864
  908
  953
  1,001
  1,051
  1,104
  1,160
  1,218
  1,279
  1,343
  1,410
  1,481
  1,555
  1,633
  1,714
  1,800
  1,890
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
  284
  291
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  355
  363
  372
  382
  391
  401
  411
  421
  432
  443
  454
  465
  477
  489
Total operating expenses, $m
  669
  703
  732
  763
  794
  828
  862
  899
  937
  976
  1,017
  1,052
  1,097
  1,144
  1,193
  1,245
  1,299
  1,356
  1,414
  1,476
  1,542
  1,609
  1,680
  1,754
  1,831
  1,913
  1,998
  2,087
  2,179
  2,277
  2,379
Operating income, $m
  -215
  -226
  -231
  -236
  -241
  -246
  -251
  -257
  -262
  -268
  -273
  -270
  -276
  -282
  -288
  -294
  -301
  -307
  -313
  -320
  -327
  -333
  -340
  -347
  -354
  -362
  -369
  -376
  -384
  -391
  -399
EBITDA, $m
  -111
  -112
  -111
  -111
  -110
  -109
  -108
  -106
  -104
  -102
  -100
  -98
  -95
  -92
  -88
  -84
  -80
  -75
  -70
  -65
  -58
  -52
  -45
  -37
  -28
  -19
  -9
  1
  13
  25
  38
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  36
  41
  47
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  156
  167
  179
  191
  204
  218
  232
  246
  262
  278
  296
  314
  332
  352
Earnings before tax, $m
  -267
  -262
  -272
  -282
  -293
  -304
  -316
  -327
  -340
  -352
  -366
  -370
  -385
  -399
  -414
  -430
  -446
  -463
  -481
  -499
  -518
  -538
  -558
  -579
  -601
  -624
  -647
  -672
  -697
  -724
  -751
Tax expense, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  92
  -262
  -272
  -282
  -293
  -304
  -316
  -327
  -340
  -352
  -366
  -370
  -385
  -399
  -414
  -430
  -446
  -463
  -481
  -499
  -518
  -538
  -558
  -579
  -601
  -624
  -647
  -672
  -697
  -724
  -751

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  206
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,573
  3,534
  3,714
  3,903
  4,101
  4,309
  4,527
  4,756
  4,996
  5,248
  5,512
  5,790
  6,081
  6,387
  6,708
  7,044
  7,398
  7,769
  8,159
  8,568
  8,998
  9,449
  9,922
  10,419
  10,941
  11,489
  12,065
  12,669
  13,303
  13,969
  14,668
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,367
  3,534
  3,714
  3,903
  4,101
  4,309
  4,527
  4,756
  4,996
  5,248
  5,512
  5,790
  6,081
  6,387
  6,708
  7,044
  7,398
  7,769
  8,159
  8,568
  8,998
  9,449
  9,922
  10,419
  10,941
  11,489
  12,065
  12,669
  13,303
  13,969
  14,668
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
Average production assets, $m
  2,356
  2,476
  2,602
  2,734
  2,873
  3,018
  3,171
  3,331
  3,500
  3,676
  3,861
  4,056
  4,260
  4,474
  4,699
  4,935
  5,182
  5,443
  5,716
  6,002
  6,303
  6,619
  6,951
  7,299
  7,665
  8,048
  8,451
  8,875
  9,319
  9,785
  10,275
Working capital, $m
  124
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
Total debt, $m
  1,065
  1,176
  1,330
  1,490
  1,659
  1,836
  2,022
  2,217
  2,421
  2,636
  2,861
  3,098
  3,346
  3,606
  3,880
  4,167
  4,468
  4,784
  5,117
  5,465
  5,831
  6,215
  6,619
  7,042
  7,487
  7,954
  8,444
  8,959
  9,499
  10,066
  10,662
Total liabilities, $m
  2,900
  3,011
  3,165
  3,325
  3,494
  3,671
  3,857
  4,052
  4,256
  4,471
  4,696
  4,933
  5,181
  5,441
  5,715
  6,002
  6,303
  6,619
  6,952
  7,300
  7,666
  8,050
  8,454
  8,877
  9,322
  9,789
  10,279
  10,794
  11,334
  11,901
  12,497
Total equity, $m
  673
  523
  550
  578
  607
  638
  670
  704
  739
  777
  816
  857
  900
  945
  993
  1,043
  1,095
  1,150
  1,208
  1,268
  1,332
  1,398
  1,469
  1,542
  1,619
  1,700
  1,786
  1,875
  1,969
  2,067
  2,171
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,573
  3,534
  3,715
  3,903
  4,101
  4,309
  4,527
  4,756
  4,995
  5,248
  5,512
  5,790
  6,081
  6,386
  6,708
  7,045
  7,398
  7,769
  8,160
  8,568
  8,998
  9,448
  9,923
  10,419
  10,941
  11,489
  12,065
  12,669
  13,303
  13,968
  14,668
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.582
  2.250
  2.420
  2.580
  2.730
  2.880
  3.020
  3.150
  3.270
  3.390
  3.510
  3.620
  3.720
  3.820
  3.910
  4.000
  4.080
  4.160
  4.240
  4.310
  4.380
  4.440
  4.510
  4.570
  4.620
  4.680
  4.730
  4.780
  4.820
  4.870
  4.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.139
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  92
  -262
  -272
  -282
  -293
  -304
  -316
  -327
  -340
  -352
  -366
  -370
  -385
  -399
  -414
  -430
  -446
  -463
  -481
  -499
  -518
  -538
  -558
  -579
  -601
  -624
  -647
  -672
  -697
  -724
  -751
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  104
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  173
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  243
  255
  268
  282
  296
  311
  326
  342
  360
  378
  397
  416
  437
Funds from operations, $m
  -169
  -148
  -152
  -157
  -162
  -167
  -172
  -177
  -182
  -187
  -192
  -198
  -203
  -209
  -214
  -220
  -226
  -232
  -238
  -244
  -250
  -256
  -262
  -268
  -275
  -281
  -288
  -294
  -301
  -307
  -314
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  -151
  -146
  -150
  -155
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -174
  -179
  -184
  -189
  -194
  -199
  -205
  -210
  -216
  -221
  -227
  -232
  -238
  -244
  -250
  -256
  -262
  -268
  -274
  -280
  -286
  -292
  -298
  -305
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -360
  -378
  -397
  -416
New CAPEX, $m
  -740
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -332
  -348
  -366
  -384
  -403
  -423
  -444
  -466
  -490
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -745
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -281
  -295
  -310
  -325
  -341
  -358
  -377
  -395
  -415
  -436
  -458
  -481
  -505
  -530
  -556
  -584
  -614
  -644
  -677
  -710
  -745
  -783
  -822
  -863
  -906
Free cash flow, $m
  -896
  -366
  -381
  -398
  -414
  -432
  -450
  -469
  -489
  -509
  -531
  -553
  -576
  -600
  -625
  -652
  -679
  -707
  -737
  -768
  -800
  -834
  -869
  -906
  -944
  -984
  -1,025
  -1,069
  -1,114
  -1,161
  -1,211
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  363
  141
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  225
  236
  248
  261
  273
  287
  301
  316
  332
  349
  366
  384
  403
  424
  445
  467
  490
  515
  540
  567
  596
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  288
  299
  310
  322
  335
  348
  361
  375
  390
  405
  411
  428
  444
  462
  480
  499
  518
  539
  560
  582
  604
  628
  653
  678
  705
  732
  761
  791
  822
  855
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  898
  429
  452
  471
  491
  512
  534
  556
  580
  605
  630
  647
  676
  705
  735
  767
  800
  834
  871
  909
  948
  988
  1,031
  1,077
  1,123
  1,172
  1,222
  1,276
  1,331
  1,389
  1,451
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  64
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  140
  147
  155
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  240
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -119
  -288
  -299
  -310
  -322
  -335
  -348
  -361
  -375
  -390
  -405
  -411
  -428
  -444
  -462
  -480
  -499
  -518
  -539
  -560
  -582
  -604
  -628
  -653
  -678
  -705
  -732
  -761
  -791
  -822
  -855
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  176
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -49
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -255
  -264
  -274
  -284
  -295
  -305
  -316
  -328
  -340
  -352
  -364
  -378
  -391
  -405
  -419
  -434
  -450
  -466
  -482
  -499
  -517
  -535
  -554
  -574
  -594
  -615
Discount rate, %
 
  9.80
  10.29
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.51
  13.13
  13.79
  14.48
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.67
  30.10
  31.61
  33.19
  34.85
  36.59
  38.42
  40.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -44
  -188
  -174
  -160
  -145
  -130
  -116
  -101
  -87
  -74
  -62
  -51
  -41
  -33
  -25
  -19
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  63.1
  40.1
  25.6
  16.4
  10.5
  6.8
  4.4
  2.9
  1.9
  1.2
  0.8
  0.5
  0.4
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Sunrun Inc. engages in the design, development, installation sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. It also sells solar leads. The company markets and sells its products through direct channels, partner channels, mass media, digital media, canvassing, referral, retail, and field marketing. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SunRun (RUN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.6
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 48.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 21.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 153.8%
Total Debt to Equity 158.2%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Return On Equity 15%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
EBITDA Margin -30.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -46.7%
Operating Margin -47.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -62.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -58.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -75.5%
Net Profit Margin 20.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.2%
Effective Tax Rate -13.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

RUN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RUN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $454 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SunRun. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SunRun. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RUN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.8%, whose default value for RUN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SunRun, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SunRun.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RUN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $233 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RUN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for SunRun.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SunRun. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RUN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RUN are equal to 518.9%.

Life of production assets of 23.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SunRun operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RUN is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $673 million for SunRun - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 99.783 million for SunRun is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SunRun at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Sunrun Sticks to 2017 Growth Plans   [Aug-09-17 02:03PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sunrun beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-07-17 11:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Residential Solar Stocks May Have a Rough Quarter   [Jul-25-17 09:12AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sunrun Celebrates 10 Years of Solar Innovation and Growth   [Jul-13-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Sunrun Inc.'s Shares Popped 41% in June   [Jul-10-17 01:29PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Residential Solar Installers Back on Growth Path   [Jul-02-17 11:32AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Solar Stocks Boom on Trumps Solar Wall   [12:44PM  Investopedia]
▶ Why Sunrun Inc's Shares Popped 11% Today   [03:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sunrun Expands Solar Access to Florida   [02:46PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ These Stocks Have Changed Direction   [02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ This Week in Solar   [04:41PM  Motley Fool]
Stock chart of RUN Financial statements of RUN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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