Intrinsic value of Safety Insurance Group - SAFT

Previous Close

$79.40

  Intrinsic Value

$10.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$79.40

 
Intrinsic value

$10.97

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SAFT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAFT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.76
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  836
  856
  878
  902
  930
  960
  992
  1,028
  1,066
  1,107
  1,151
  1,197
  1,247
  1,300
  1,356
  1,415
  1,478
  1,545
  1,615
  1,689
  1,767
  1,850
  1,937
  2,029
  2,125
  2,227
  2,334
  2,447
  2,565
  2,690
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  867
  887
  910
  936
  964
  995
  1,029
  1,066
  1,105
  1,148
  1,193
  1,242
  1,293
  1,348
  1,406
  1,468
  1,533
  1,602
  1,675
  1,752
  1,833
  1,918
  2,009
  2,104
  2,204
  2,309
  2,420
  2,537
  2,660
  2,789
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  726
  867
  887
  910
  936
  964
  995
  1,029
  1,066
  1,105
  1,148
  1,193
  1,242
  1,293
  1,348
  1,406
  1,468
  1,533
  1,602
  1,675
  1,752
  1,833
  1,918
  2,009
  2,104
  2,204
  2,309
  2,420
  2,537
  2,660
  2,789
Operating income, $m
  93
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
EBITDA, $m
  107
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  76
  81
Earnings before tax, $m
  93
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -181
Tax expense, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  65
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -181

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,758
  1,795
  1,836
  1,883
  1,936
  1,995
  2,059
  2,130
  2,205
  2,287
  2,375
  2,469
  2,569
  2,676
  2,789
  2,910
  3,037
  3,172
  3,315
  3,466
  3,625
  3,793
  3,970
  4,157
  4,354
  4,561
  4,779
  5,009
  5,250
  5,505
  5,772
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,758
  1,795
  1,836
  1,883
  1,936
  1,995
  2,059
  2,130
  2,205
  2,287
  2,375
  2,469
  2,569
  2,676
  2,789
  2,910
  3,037
  3,172
  3,315
  3,466
  3,625
  3,793
  3,970
  4,157
  4,354
  4,561
  4,779
  5,009
  5,250
  5,505
  5,772
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
Average production assets, $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  0
  22
  48
  77
  110
  146
  186
  229
  276
  327
  381
  439
  501
  567
  637
  711
  790
  873
  962
  1,055
  1,153
  1,257
  1,366
  1,482
  1,604
  1,732
  1,866
  2,008
  2,158
  2,315
  2,480
Total liabilities, $m
  1,088
  1,109
  1,135
  1,164
  1,197
  1,233
  1,273
  1,316
  1,363
  1,414
  1,468
  1,526
  1,588
  1,654
  1,724
  1,798
  1,877
  1,960
  2,049
  2,142
  2,240
  2,344
  2,453
  2,569
  2,691
  2,819
  2,953
  3,095
  3,245
  3,402
  3,567
Total equity, $m
  671
  686
  701
  719
  740
  762
  787
  813
  842
  874
  907
  943
  981
  1,022
  1,065
  1,111
  1,160
  1,212
  1,266
  1,324
  1,385
  1,449
  1,517
  1,588
  1,663
  1,742
  1,826
  1,913
  2,006
  2,103
  2,205
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,759
  1,795
  1,836
  1,883
  1,937
  1,995
  2,060
  2,129
  2,205
  2,288
  2,375
  2,469
  2,569
  2,676
  2,789
  2,909
  3,037
  3,172
  3,315
  3,466
  3,625
  3,793
  3,970
  4,157
  4,354
  4,561
  4,779
  5,008
  5,251
  5,505
  5,772
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.070
  0.110
  0.150
  0.190
  0.240
  0.280
  0.330
  0.370
  0.420
  0.470
  0.510
  0.550
  0.600
  0.640
  0.680
  0.720
  0.760
  0.800
  0.830
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.960
  0.990
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382
  0.382

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  65
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -181
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  122
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -165
  -175
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  99
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -165
  -175
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -84
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Free cash flow, $m
  15
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -182
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  22
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  115
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  46
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  214
  226
  239
  253
  268
  283
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  68
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  274
  290
  306
  324
  342
  361
  381
  402
  425
  448
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  37
  41
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  81
  87
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  253
  266
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -46
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -202
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -253
  -268
  -283
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.4
  92.8
  89.1
  85.4
  81.7
  78.0
  74.4
  70.8
  67.2
  63.8
  60.4
  57.1
  53.9
  50.9
  47.9
  45.1
  42.4
  39.8
  37.4
  35.0
  32.8
  30.7
  28.7
  26.8
  25.0
  23.4
  21.8
  20.3
  18.9
  17.6

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. is a provider of private passenger automobile insurance. The Company offers a portfolio of property and casualty insurance products. The Company is engaged in property and casualty insurance operations. The Company's product line includes private passenger automobile, commercial automobile, homeowners, business owners' policies, personal umbrella, dwelling fire, commercial umbrella, inland marine and watercraft. The Company operates through its insurance company subsidiaries, Safety Insurance Company, Safety Indemnity Insurance Company, and Safety Property and Casualty Insurance Company. Private passenger automobile policies provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others, no-fault personal injury coverage for the insured/insured's car occupants, and physical damage coverage for an insured's own vehicle for collision or other perils. Commercial automobile policies provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Safety Insurance Group (SAFT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.5
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital 9.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Equity 9.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 13%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Operating Margin 11.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 30.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
Payout Ratio 64.6%

SAFT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAFT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $820 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Safety Insurance Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Safety Insurance Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAFT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SAFT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Safety Insurance Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Safety Insurance Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAFT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 103.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAFT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Safety Insurance Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Safety Insurance Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAFT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAFT are equal to 1.1%.

Life of production assets of 0.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Safety Insurance Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAFT is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $671 million for Safety Insurance Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.299 million for Safety Insurance Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Safety Insurance Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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Financial statements of SAFT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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