Intrinsic value of Saia - SAIA

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$51.85

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAIA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.25
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  1,218
  1,331
  1,449
  1,572
  1,700
  1,833
  1,971
  2,115
  2,264
  2,419
  2,581
  2,748
  2,923
  3,105
  3,294
  3,491
  3,696
  3,910
  4,134
  4,367
  4,611
  4,866
  5,132
  5,410
  5,701
  6,006
  6,325
  6,659
  7,008
  7,375
  7,758
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,233
  1,342
  1,456
  1,574
  1,697
  1,825
  1,958
  2,096
  2,239
  2,388
  2,542
  2,704
  2,872
  3,047
  3,229
  3,419
  3,617
  3,824
  4,040
  4,265
  4,501
  4,747
  5,005
  5,274
  5,556
  5,851
  6,159
  6,483
  6,822
  7,176
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,139
  1,233
  1,342
  1,456
  1,574
  1,697
  1,825
  1,958
  2,096
  2,239
  2,388
  2,542
  2,704
  2,872
  3,047
  3,229
  3,419
  3,617
  3,824
  4,040
  4,265
  4,501
  4,747
  5,005
  5,274
  5,556
  5,851
  6,159
  6,483
  6,822
  7,176
Operating income, $m
  79
  99
  107
  117
  126
  136
  147
  157
  169
  180
  192
  206
  219
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
  310
  327
  346
  365
  385
  406
  428
  450
  474
  499
  526
  553
  582
EBITDA, $m
  155
  164
  178
  194
  209
  226
  243
  260
  279
  298
  318
  338
  360
  382
  405
  430
  455
  481
  509
  538
  568
  599
  632
  666
  702
  739
  779
  820
  863
  908
  955
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
Earnings before tax, $m
  75
  96
  104
  112
  121
  129
  139
  148
  158
  168
  179
  191
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  268
  283
  299
  315
  332
  349
  368
  387
  407
  428
  451
  474
  498
  523
Tax expense, $m
  27
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
Net income, $m
  48
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  283
  297
  313
  329
  346
  364
  382

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  800
  872
  950
  1,030
  1,114
  1,201
  1,292
  1,386
  1,484
  1,585
  1,691
  1,801
  1,915
  2,034
  2,158
  2,288
  2,422
  2,563
  2,709
  2,862
  3,022
  3,189
  3,363
  3,545
  3,736
  3,936
  4,145
  4,364
  4,593
  4,833
  5,084
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  798
  872
  950
  1,030
  1,114
  1,201
  1,292
  1,386
  1,484
  1,585
  1,691
  1,801
  1,915
  2,034
  2,158
  2,288
  2,422
  2,563
  2,709
  2,862
  3,022
  3,189
  3,363
  3,545
  3,736
  3,936
  4,145
  4,364
  4,593
  4,833
  5,084
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.526
  1.526
  1.525
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.527
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
Average production assets, $m
  586
  640
  697
  756
  818
  882
  948
  1,017
  1,089
  1,164
  1,241
  1,322
  1,406
  1,493
  1,584
  1,679
  1,778
  1,881
  1,988
  2,101
  2,218
  2,340
  2,469
  2,602
  2,742
  2,889
  3,042
  3,203
  3,371
  3,547
  3,732
Working capital, $m
  21
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  210
  221
  233
Total debt, $m
  74
  102
  132
  164
  197
  232
  267
  304
  343
  383
  425
  468
  514
  561
  610
  661
  714
  769
  827
  887
  951
  1,017
  1,085
  1,157
  1,233
  1,312
  1,394
  1,481
  1,571
  1,666
  1,765
Total liabilities, $m
  317
  345
  375
  407
  440
  475
  510
  547
  586
  626
  668
  711
  757
  804
  853
  904
  957
  1,012
  1,070
  1,130
  1,194
  1,260
  1,328
  1,400
  1,476
  1,555
  1,637
  1,724
  1,814
  1,909
  2,008
Total equity, $m
  483
  528
  575
  623
  674
  727
  782
  839
  898
  959
  1,023
  1,090
  1,159
  1,231
  1,306
  1,384
  1,465
  1,550
  1,639
  1,732
  1,828
  1,929
  2,035
  2,145
  2,260
  2,381
  2,508
  2,640
  2,779
  2,924
  3,076
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  800
  873
  950
  1,030
  1,114
  1,202
  1,292
  1,386
  1,484
  1,585
  1,691
  1,801
  1,916
  2,035
  2,159
  2,288
  2,422
  2,562
  2,709
  2,862
  3,022
  3,189
  3,363
  3,545
  3,736
  3,936
  4,145
  4,364
  4,593
  4,833
  5,084
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.153
  0.190
  0.230
  0.260
  0.290
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.603
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605
  0.605

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  48
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  283
  297
  313
  329
  346
  364
  382
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  76
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  132
  141
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
  304
  320
  337
  355
  373
Funds from operations, $m
  148
  135
  147
  159
  171
  184
  197
  211
  225
  240
  256
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363
  384
  405
  428
  452
  476
  502
  529
  557
  586
  617
  649
  683
  718
  755
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  146
  132
  143
  155
  167
  180
  193
  207
  221
  236
  251
  267
  283
  301
  319
  338
  357
  377
  399
  421
  444
  468
  494
  520
  548
  577
  607
  639
  672
  707
  744
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -199
  -210
  -222
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -337
  -355
New CAPEX, $m
  -119
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -185
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -118
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -327
  -344
  -362
  -381
  -400
  -421
  -442
  -465
  -488
  -513
  -540
Free cash flow, $m
  28
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  86
  90
  95
  99
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -27
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  86
  90
  95
  99
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  49
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
  144
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  223
  235
  248
  261
  274
  289
  304
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  17
  16
  15
  13
  12
  11
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Saia, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in the United States. It provides regional and interregional less-than-truckload, truckload, guaranteed, expedited, and logistics services. The company offers solutions for shipments between 100 and 10,000 pounds. As of December 31, 2015, it had a network of 49 owned service facilities and 95 leased service facilities; and approximately 3,932 tractors and 12,371 trailers. The company as formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc. Saia, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Saia (SAIA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.4
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9
Price to Free Cash Flow 48.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11.8%
Total Debt to Equity 15.3%
Interest Coverage 39
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Total Capital 9.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Return On Equity 10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.4%
EBITDA Margin 12.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Effective Tax Rate 36%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

SAIA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAIA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1218 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Saia. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Saia. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAIA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SAIA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Saia, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Saia.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAIA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAIA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Saia.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Saia. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAIA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAIA are equal to 48.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Saia operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAIA is equal to 3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $483 million for Saia - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.2 million for Saia is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Saia at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Inside SAIAs LTL Operating Metrics during 2Q17   [Jun-30-17 07:38AM  Market Realist]
▶ Saia Provides Second Quarter-to-Date LTL Operating Data   [Jun-01-17 07:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Saia LTL Freight Honors Employees with Safety Awards   [May-31-17 04:41PM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Saia, Inc. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Saia LTL Freight Honored by Lowe's Companies, Inc.   [May-24-17 03:07PM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Saia, Inc. : May 3, 2017   [May-03-17 04:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Saia LTL Freight Terminals Open in the Northeast   [May-02-17 01:04PM  Marketwired]
▶ Saia tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-28-17 07:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Saia LTL Freight to Open Four Terminals in May 2017   [Mar-20-17 11:32AM  Marketwired]
▶ Saia misses 4Q profit forecasts   [07:48AM  Associated Press]
▶ Saia LTL Freight Driver Named to America's Road Team   [Jan-12-17 05:40PM  Marketwired]
▶ Is Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 02:09AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Saia LTL Freight Receives Two First Place Safety Awards   [Nov-23-16 02:13PM  Marketwired]
▶ Saia LTL Freight to Expand into Northeastern US   [Oct-26-16 04:53PM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of SAIA Financial statements of SAIA Annual reports of SAIA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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