Intrinsic value of Boston Beer Cl A - SAM

Previous Close

$193.00

  Intrinsic Value

$117.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-39%

Previous close

$193.00

 
Intrinsic value

$117.29

 
Up/down potential

-39%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.63
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  906
  924
  945
  970
  997
  1,027
  1,060
  1,096
  1,136
  1,178
  1,223
  1,271
  1,323
  1,378
  1,436
  1,498
  1,564
  1,633
  1,707
  1,784
  1,866
  1,953
  2,044
  2,140
  2,242
  2,348
  2,461
  2,579
  2,703
  2,834
  2,972
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  599
  613
  628
  646
  666
  687
  710
  736
  763
  792
  823
  857
  892
  930
  970
  1,013
  1,058
  1,105
  1,155
  1,209
  1,265
  1,324
  1,386
  1,452
  1,521
  1,593
  1,670
  1,751
  1,835
  1,925
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  192
  196
  201
  206
  212
  217
  222
  228
  234
  239
  245
  251
  258
  264
  271
  278
  285
  292
  299
  306
  314
  322
  330
  338
  347
  355
  364
  373
  383
  392
Total operating expenses, $m
  769
  791
  809
  829
  852
  878
  904
  932
  964
  997
  1,031
  1,068
  1,108
  1,150
  1,194
  1,241
  1,291
  1,343
  1,397
  1,454
  1,515
  1,579
  1,646
  1,716
  1,790
  1,868
  1,948
  2,034
  2,124
  2,218
  2,317
Operating income, $m
  138
  134
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  164
  172
  181
  191
  203
  215
  228
  242
  257
  274
  291
  310
  330
  351
  374
  398
  424
  452
  481
  512
  545
  579
  616
  655
EBITDA, $m
  188
  176
  179
  184
  190
  197
  205
  214
  224
  235
  247
  260
  275
  290
  307
  325
  344
  365
  387
  411
  436
  462
  491
  521
  553
  587
  623
  661
  702
  744
  790
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
Earnings before tax, $m
  137
  134
  136
  140
  144
  149
  156
  163
  171
  180
  189
  201
  212
  225
  239
  254
  270
  287
  305
  325
  346
  368
  392
  417
  444
  472
  502
  535
  568
  604
  643
Tax expense, $m
  50
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  136
  144
  153
  163
  174
Net income, $m
  87
  98
  99
  102
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  185
  197
  209
  223
  237
  252
  269
  286
  304
  324
  345
  367
  390
  415
  441
  469

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  91
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  616
  535
  548
  562
  578
  595
  614
  635
  658
  682
  708
  736
  766
  798
  832
  868
  906
  946
  989
  1,034
  1,081
  1,131
  1,184
  1,240
  1,299
  1,361
  1,426
  1,494
  1,566
  1,642
  1,722
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  525
  535
  548
  562
  578
  595
  614
  635
  658
  682
  708
  736
  766
  798
  832
  868
  906
  946
  989
  1,034
  1,081
  1,131
  1,184
  1,240
  1,299
  1,361
  1,426
  1,494
  1,566
  1,642
  1,722
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.726
  1.727
  1.724
  1.726
  1.725
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.727
  1.727
  1.727
  1.727
  1.727
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.725
  1.726
  1.727
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.725
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
  1.726
Average production assets, $m
  205
  209
  214
  219
  225
  232
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  287
  299
  311
  325
  339
  353
  369
  386
  403
  422
  441
  462
  484
  507
  531
  556
  583
  611
  641
  672
Working capital, $m
  92
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  7
  12
  17
  23
  29
  36
  43
  51
  59
  68
  78
  88
  99
  110
  123
  136
  149
  164
  179
  195
  212
  230
  249
  269
  290
  312
  335
  360
  385
Total liabilities, $m
  169
  172
  176
  181
  186
  192
  198
  205
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  292
  305
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  529
  554
Total equity, $m
  447
  363
  371
  381
  392
  403
  417
  431
  446
  463
  480
  499
  520
  541
  564
  588
  614
  642
  670
  701
  733
  767
  803
  841
  881
  922
  967
  1,013
  1,062
  1,113
  1,167
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  616
  535
  547
  562
  578
  595
  615
  636
  658
  683
  708
  736
  767
  798
  832
  867
  906
  947
  988
  1,034
  1,081
  1,131
  1,184
  1,240
  1,299
  1,360
  1,426
  1,494
  1,566
  1,642
  1,721
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  87
  98
  99
  102
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  185
  197
  209
  223
  237
  252
  269
  286
  304
  324
  345
  367
  390
  415
  441
  469
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  50
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
Funds from operations, $m
  169
  140
  143
  146
  151
  156
  162
  169
  176
  185
  194
  204
  215
  227
  239
  253
  268
  283
  300
  318
  337
  357
  378
  401
  425
  451
  478
  507
  537
  569
  603
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  154
  140
  143
  146
  151
  156
  162
  169
  176
  185
  194
  204
  215
  227
  239
  253
  267
  283
  300
  318
  337
  357
  378
  401
  425
  451
  478
  507
  537
  569
  603
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
New CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
Free cash flow, $m
  108
  95
  96
  98
  101
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  138
  146
  154
  164
  174
  185
  197
  209
  223
  237
  253
  269
  287
  305
  325
  346
  369
  392
  417
  444
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -124
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -111
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  98
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  165
  175
  185
  197
  210
  223
  237
  253
  269
  286
  305
  324
  345
  367
  391
  416
  442
  470
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  14
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  91
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  182
  92
  93
  95
  98
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  128
  135
  143
  152
  161
  171
  182
  194
  207
  220
  235
  250
  267
  285
  303
  323
  344
  367
  390
  416
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  175
  84
  81
  78
  76
  73
  71
  69
  66
  64
  61
  58
  54
  51
  47
  44
  40
  36
  32
  28
  24
  21
  18
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. is a craft brewer in the United States. The Company is engaged in the business of producing and selling alcohol beverages primarily in the domestic market and in selected international markets. The Company operates through two segments: Boston Beer Company segment, and A&S Brewing Collaborative segment. The Boston Beer Company segment comprises of the Company's Samuel Adams, Twisted Tea, Angry Orchard and Truly Spiked & Sparkling brands. The A&S Brewing Collaborative segment comprises of The Traveler Beer Company, Coney Island Brewing Company, Angel City Brewing Company and Concrete Beach Brewing Company. Both segments sell low alcohol beverages. The Company produces malt beverages and hard cider at the Company-owned breweries and under contract arrangements at other brewery locations. As of December 31, 2016, the Company sold its products to a network of approximately 350 wholesalers in the United States and to a network of distributors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Boston Beer Cl A (SAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.4
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 23
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -13.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Return On Total Capital 19.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Return On Equity 19.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.5%
EBITDA Margin 20.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Operating Margin 15.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Effective Tax Rate 36.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37%
Payout Ratio 0%

SAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $906 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Boston Beer Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Boston Beer Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Boston Beer Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Boston Beer Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $187 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Boston Beer Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Boston Beer Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAM are equal to 22.6%.

Life of production assets of 4.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Boston Beer Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAM is equal to 0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $447 million for Boston Beer Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.034 million for Boston Beer Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Boston Beer Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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Financial statements of SAM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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