Intrinsic value of Spirit Airlines - SAVE

Previous Close

$58.46

  Intrinsic Value

$140.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+140%

  Value-price divergence*

+70%

Previous close

$58.46

 
Intrinsic value

$140.54

 
Up/down potential

+140%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+70%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAVE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.45
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
Revenue, $m
  2,322
  2,582
  2,855
  3,141
  3,440
  3,752
  4,077
  4,416
  4,767
  5,133
  5,513
  5,908
  6,318
  6,745
  7,188
  7,649
  8,130
  8,629
  9,150
  9,693
  10,259
  10,849
  11,465
  12,108
  12,780
  13,482
  14,217
  14,984
  15,788
  16,628
  17,508
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,968
  2,176
  2,394
  2,622
  2,859
  3,107
  3,365
  3,633
  3,911
  4,201
  4,502
  4,814
  5,139
  5,477
  5,829
  6,195
  6,576
  6,972
  7,386
  7,817
  8,267
  8,736
  9,226
  9,739
  10,274
  10,833
  11,418
  12,030
  12,671
  13,341
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,878
  1,968
  2,176
  2,394
  2,622
  2,859
  3,107
  3,365
  3,633
  3,911
  4,201
  4,502
  4,814
  5,139
  5,477
  5,829
  6,195
  6,576
  6,972
  7,386
  7,817
  8,267
  8,736
  9,226
  9,739
  10,274
  10,833
  11,418
  12,030
  12,671
  13,341
Operating income, $m
  444
  615
  680
  748
  819
  893
  970
  1,051
  1,135
  1,222
  1,312
  1,406
  1,504
  1,605
  1,711
  1,821
  1,935
  2,054
  2,178
  2,307
  2,442
  2,582
  2,729
  2,882
  3,042
  3,209
  3,384
  3,566
  3,757
  3,958
  4,167
EBITDA, $m
  545
  727
  804
  885
  969
  1,057
  1,148
  1,243
  1,342
  1,445
  1,552
  1,664
  1,779
  1,899
  2,024
  2,154
  2,289
  2,430
  2,577
  2,729
  2,889
  3,055
  3,229
  3,410
  3,599
  3,797
  4,003
  4,220
  4,446
  4,682
  4,930
Interest expense (income), $m
  40
  44
  53
  63
  73
  84
  95
  106
  118
  130
  143
  157
  171
  185
  200
  216
  232
  249
  267
  285
  304
  324
  345
  367
  390
  413
  438
  464
  491
  520
  549
Earnings before tax, $m
  419
  571
  626
  685
  746
  810
  876
  945
  1,017
  1,091
  1,169
  1,249
  1,333
  1,420
  1,511
  1,605
  1,703
  1,805
  1,911
  2,022
  2,137
  2,258
  2,384
  2,515
  2,652
  2,795
  2,945
  3,102
  3,266
  3,438
  3,618
Tax expense, $m
  154
  154
  169
  185
  201
  219
  236
  255
  275
  295
  316
  337
  360
  383
  408
  433
  460
  487
  516
  546
  577
  610
  644
  679
  716
  755
  795
  838
  882
  928
  977
Net income, $m
  265
  416
  457
  500
  544
  591
  639
  690
  742
  797
  853
  912
  973
  1,037
  1,103
  1,171
  1,243
  1,317
  1,395
  1,476
  1,560
  1,648
  1,740
  1,836
  1,936
  2,041
  2,150
  2,265
  2,384
  2,510
  2,641

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  801
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,152
  2,613
  2,890
  3,180
  3,482
  3,798
  4,127
  4,469
  4,825
  5,195
  5,580
  5,980
  6,395
  6,827
  7,275
  7,742
  8,228
  8,734
  9,261
  9,811
  10,383
  10,981
  11,604
  12,255
  12,935
  13,646
  14,389
  15,166
  15,979
  16,830
  17,721
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,351
  2,613
  2,890
  3,180
  3,482
  3,798
  4,127
  4,469
  4,825
  5,195
  5,580
  5,980
  6,395
  6,827
  7,275
  7,742
  8,228
  8,734
  9,261
  9,811
  10,383
  10,981
  11,604
  12,255
  12,935
  13,646
  14,389
  15,166
  15,979
  16,830
  17,721
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
Average production assets, $m
  1,155
  1,283
  1,419
  1,561
  1,710
  1,865
  2,026
  2,195
  2,369
  2,551
  2,740
  2,936
  3,140
  3,352
  3,573
  3,802
  4,040
  4,289
  4,548
  4,817
  5,099
  5,392
  5,698
  6,018
  6,352
  6,701
  7,066
  7,447
  7,846
  8,264
  8,702
Working capital, $m
  444
  -305
  -337
  -371
  -406
  -443
  -481
  -521
  -563
  -606
  -651
  -697
  -746
  -796
  -848
  -903
  -959
  -1,018
  -1,080
  -1,144
  -1,211
  -1,280
  -1,353
  -1,429
  -1,508
  -1,591
  -1,678
  -1,768
  -1,863
  -1,962
  -2,066
Total debt, $m
  982
  1,086
  1,283
  1,489
  1,704
  1,929
  2,163
  2,407
  2,661
  2,924
  3,198
  3,482
  3,778
  4,085
  4,405
  4,738
  5,084
  5,444
  5,819
  6,210
  6,618
  7,043
  7,487
  7,951
  8,435
  8,941
  9,470
  10,023
  10,602
  11,208
  11,842
Total liabilities, $m
  1,757
  1,861
  2,058
  2,264
  2,479
  2,704
  2,938
  3,182
  3,436
  3,699
  3,973
  4,257
  4,553
  4,860
  5,180
  5,513
  5,859
  6,219
  6,594
  6,985
  7,393
  7,818
  8,262
  8,726
  9,210
  9,716
  10,245
  10,798
  11,377
  11,983
  12,617
Total equity, $m
  1,395
  753
  832
  916
  1,003
  1,094
  1,189
  1,287
  1,390
  1,496
  1,607
  1,722
  1,842
  1,966
  2,095
  2,230
  2,370
  2,515
  2,667
  2,825
  2,990
  3,162
  3,342
  3,530
  3,725
  3,930
  4,144
  4,368
  4,602
  4,847
  5,104
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,152
  2,614
  2,890
  3,180
  3,482
  3,798
  4,127
  4,469
  4,826
  5,195
  5,580
  5,979
  6,395
  6,826
  7,275
  7,743
  8,229
  8,734
  9,261
  9,810
  10,383
  10,980
  11,604
  12,256
  12,935
  13,646
  14,389
  15,166
  15,979
  16,830
  17,721
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.704
  1.440
  1.540
  1.630
  1.700
  1.760
  1.820
  1.870
  1.910
  1.950
  1.990
  2.020
  2.050
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.150
  2.160
  2.180
  2.200
  2.210
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.280
  2.290
  2.290
  2.300
  2.310
  2.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.253
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  265
  416
  457
  500
  544
  591
  639
  690
  742
  797
  853
  912
  973
  1,037
  1,103
  1,171
  1,243
  1,317
  1,395
  1,476
  1,560
  1,648
  1,740
  1,836
  1,936
  2,041
  2,150
  2,265
  2,384
  2,510
  2,641
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  101
  113
  124
  137
  150
  164
  178
  193
  208
  224
  240
  258
  275
  294
  313
  333
  354
  376
  399
  423
  447
  473
  500
  528
  557
  588
  620
  653
  688
  725
  763
Funds from operations, $m
  441
  529
  582
  637
  694
  755
  817
  882
  950
  1,020
  1,094
  1,170
  1,249
  1,331
  1,416
  1,505
  1,597
  1,694
  1,794
  1,898
  2,007
  2,121
  2,240
  2,364
  2,493
  2,628
  2,770
  2,918
  3,073
  3,235
  3,404
Change in working capital, $m
  -33
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
Cash from operations, $m
  474
  870
  614
  671
  730
  791
  856
  922
  992
  1,064
  1,138
  1,216
  1,297
  1,381
  1,468
  1,559
  1,654
  1,753
  1,855
  1,962
  2,074
  2,191
  2,313
  2,440
  2,572
  2,711
  2,857
  3,008
  3,167
  3,334
  3,508
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -101
  -113
  -124
  -137
  -150
  -164
  -178
  -193
  -208
  -224
  -240
  -258
  -275
  -294
  -313
  -333
  -354
  -376
  -399
  -423
  -447
  -473
  -500
  -528
  -557
  -588
  -620
  -653
  -688
  -725
New CAPEX, $m
  -541
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -248
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -399
  -418
  -437
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -826
  -230
  -249
  -266
  -286
  -305
  -326
  -346
  -368
  -390
  -413
  -436
  -462
  -487
  -514
  -542
  -572
  -602
  -635
  -669
  -704
  -740
  -779
  -820
  -862
  -906
  -953
  -1,002
  -1,052
  -1,106
  -1,162
Free cash flow, $m
  -352
  640
  366
  404
  444
  486
  530
  576
  624
  674
  726
  780
  836
  894
  954
  1,017
  1,082
  1,150
  1,220
  1,294
  1,370
  1,450
  1,533
  1,620
  1,711
  1,805
  1,904
  2,007
  2,115
  2,228
  2,346
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  353
  188
  197
  206
  216
  225
  234
  244
  253
  263
  274
  285
  296
  307
  320
  332
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  425
  444
  464
  484
  506
  529
  553
  579
  606
  634
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  250
  188
  197
  206
  216
  225
  234
  244
  253
  263
  274
  285
  296
  307
  320
  332
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  425
  444
  464
  484
  506
  529
  553
  579
  606
  634
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -103
  828
  562
  610
  660
  711
  765
  820
  878
  937
  1,000
  1,064
  1,131
  1,201
  1,274
  1,349
  1,428
  1,510
  1,596
  1,685
  1,778
  1,876
  1,977
  2,084
  2,195
  2,311
  2,433
  2,560
  2,694
  2,834
  2,980
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -170
  -75
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -257
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  717
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,470
  483
  527
  573
  620
  670
  721
  775
  831
  889
  949
  1,012
  1,077
  1,144
  1,215
  1,288
  1,364
  1,444
  1,527
  1,613
  1,704
  1,798
  1,896
  1,999
  2,107
  2,219
  2,337
  2,460
  2,589
  2,723
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,410
  442
  458
  471
  481
  486
  487
  484
  477
  466
  451
  432
  409
  384
  357
  327
  297
  266
  235
  205
  176
  149
  124
  102
  82
  65
  50
  38
  28
  21
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Spirit Airlines, Inc. provides low-fare airline services. As of February 7, 2017, it operated approximately 420 daily flights to 59 destinations in the United States, the Caribbean, and Latin America. As of December 31, 2016, the company had a fleet of 95 Airbus single-aisle aircraft comprising 29 A319s, 45 A320ceos, 5 A320neos, and 16 A321ceos. It offers tickets through its call centers and airport ticket counters, as well as online through www.spirit.com; and through various third parties, including online, traditional travel agents, and electronic global distribution systems. The company was formerly known as Clippert Trucking Company and changed its name to Spirit Airlines, Inc. in 1992. Spirit Airlines, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Miramar, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Spirit Airlines (SAVE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.3
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -60.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 93.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 64.4%
Total Debt to Equity 70.4%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Total Capital 12.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Return On Equity 20.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
EBITDA Margin 24.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Operating Margin 19.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 18%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Net Profit Margin 11.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Effective Tax Rate 36.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SAVE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAVE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2322 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Spirit Airlines. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Spirit Airlines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAVE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SAVE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Spirit Airlines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Spirit Airlines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAVE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAVE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Spirit Airlines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Spirit Airlines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAVE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAVE are equal to 49.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Spirit Airlines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAVE is equal to -11.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1395 million for Spirit Airlines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.473 million for Spirit Airlines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Spirit Airlines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Spirit Airlines Finds a New Cost Advantage   [Mar-23-17 06:22PM  at Motley Fool]
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Stock chart of SAVE Financial statements of SAVE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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