Intrinsic value of Spirit Airlines - SAVE

Previous Close

$48.85

  Intrinsic Value

$131.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+170%

  Value-price divergence*

+12%

Previous close

$48.85

 
Intrinsic value

$131.70

 
Up/down potential

+170%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+12%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAVE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.45
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  2,322
  2,554
  2,797
  3,050
  3,314
  3,588
  3,873
  4,170
  4,478
  4,798
  5,131
  5,477
  5,837
  6,211
  6,601
  7,007
  7,429
  7,869
  8,328
  8,807
  9,307
  9,829
  10,374
  10,944
  11,540
  12,163
  12,815
  13,497
  14,211
  14,959
  15,742
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,946
  2,131
  2,324
  2,525
  2,734
  2,951
  3,177
  3,412
  3,656
  3,910
  4,174
  4,448
  4,733
  5,030
  5,339
  5,661
  5,996
  6,346
  6,711
  7,092
  7,490
  7,905
  8,339
  8,793
  9,268
  9,765
  10,284
  10,829
  11,398
  11,995
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,878
  1,946
  2,131
  2,324
  2,525
  2,734
  2,951
  3,177
  3,412
  3,656
  3,910
  4,174
  4,448
  4,733
  5,030
  5,339
  5,661
  5,996
  6,346
  6,711
  7,092
  7,490
  7,905
  8,339
  8,793
  9,268
  9,765
  10,284
  10,829
  11,398
  11,995
Operating income, $m
  444
  608
  666
  726
  789
  854
  922
  992
  1,066
  1,142
  1,221
  1,304
  1,389
  1,478
  1,571
  1,668
  1,768
  1,873
  1,982
  2,096
  2,215
  2,339
  2,469
  2,605
  2,746
  2,895
  3,050
  3,212
  3,382
  3,560
  3,747
EBITDA, $m
  545
  719
  788
  859
  933
  1,010
  1,091
  1,174
  1,261
  1,351
  1,445
  1,542
  1,644
  1,749
  1,859
  1,973
  2,092
  2,216
  2,345
  2,480
  2,621
  2,768
  2,921
  3,082
  3,250
  3,425
  3,609
  3,801
  4,002
  4,212
  4,433
Interest expense (income), $m
  40
  44
  52
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  109
  120
  131
  143
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  224
  240
  256
  273
  291
  309
  328
  348
  370
  392
  415
  439
  464
  490
Earnings before tax, $m
  419
  564
  613
  665
  719
  775
  833
  894
  957
  1,022
  1,090
  1,160
  1,234
  1,310
  1,390
  1,472
  1,559
  1,649
  1,742
  1,840
  1,942
  2,049
  2,160
  2,276
  2,398
  2,525
  2,658
  2,798
  2,944
  3,096
  3,256
Tax expense, $m
  154
  152
  166
  180
  194
  209
  225
  241
  258
  276
  294
  313
  333
  354
  375
  398
  421
  445
  470
  497
  524
  553
  583
  615
  647
  682
  718
  755
  795
  836
  879
Net income, $m
  265
  412
  448
  486
  525
  566
  608
  652
  698
  746
  796
  847
  901
  956
  1,014
  1,075
  1,138
  1,203
  1,272
  1,343
  1,418
  1,496
  1,577
  1,662
  1,751
  1,843
  1,941
  2,042
  2,149
  2,260
  2,377

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  801
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,152
  2,585
  2,831
  3,087
  3,354
  3,632
  3,920
  4,221
  4,533
  4,857
  5,194
  5,544
  5,908
  6,287
  6,681
  7,092
  7,519
  7,965
  8,429
  8,914
  9,420
  9,948
  10,500
  11,077
  11,680
  12,311
  12,970
  13,661
  14,383
  15,140
  15,933
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,351
  2,585
  2,831
  3,087
  3,354
  3,632
  3,920
  4,221
  4,533
  4,857
  5,194
  5,544
  5,908
  6,287
  6,681
  7,092
  7,519
  7,965
  8,429
  8,914
  9,420
  9,948
  10,500
  11,077
  11,680
  12,311
  12,970
  13,661
  14,383
  15,140
  15,933
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
Average production assets, $m
  1,155
  1,269
  1,390
  1,516
  1,647
  1,783
  1,925
  2,072
  2,226
  2,385
  2,550
  2,722
  2,901
  3,087
  3,281
  3,482
  3,692
  3,911
  4,139
  4,377
  4,626
  4,885
  5,156
  5,439
  5,735
  6,045
  6,369
  6,708
  7,063
  7,434
  7,824
Working capital, $m
  444
  -255
  -280
  -305
  -331
  -359
  -387
  -417
  -448
  -480
  -513
  -548
  -584
  -621
  -660
  -701
  -743
  -787
  -833
  -881
  -931
  -983
  -1,037
  -1,094
  -1,154
  -1,216
  -1,281
  -1,350
  -1,421
  -1,496
  -1,574
Total debt, $m
  982
  1,066
  1,241
  1,423
  1,613
  1,811
  2,016
  2,230
  2,452
  2,683
  2,923
  3,172
  3,432
  3,701
  3,982
  4,274
  4,579
  4,896
  5,227
  5,572
  5,932
  6,308
  6,701
  7,112
  7,541
  7,990
  8,460
  8,951
  9,466
  10,005
  10,569
Total liabilities, $m
  1,757
  1,841
  2,016
  2,198
  2,388
  2,586
  2,791
  3,005
  3,227
  3,458
  3,698
  3,947
  4,207
  4,476
  4,757
  5,049
  5,354
  5,671
  6,002
  6,347
  6,707
  7,083
  7,476
  7,887
  8,316
  8,765
  9,235
  9,726
  10,241
  10,780
  11,344
Total equity, $m
  1,395
  745
  815
  889
  966
  1,046
  1,129
  1,216
  1,305
  1,399
  1,496
  1,597
  1,702
  1,811
  1,924
  2,042
  2,166
  2,294
  2,428
  2,567
  2,713
  2,865
  3,024
  3,190
  3,364
  3,545
  3,735
  3,934
  4,142
  4,360
  4,589
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,152
  2,586
  2,831
  3,087
  3,354
  3,632
  3,920
  4,221
  4,532
  4,857
  5,194
  5,544
  5,909
  6,287
  6,681
  7,091
  7,520
  7,965
  8,430
  8,914
  9,420
  9,948
  10,500
  11,077
  11,680
  12,310
  12,970
  13,660
  14,383
  15,140
  15,933
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.704
  1.430
  1.520
  1.600
  1.670
  1.730
  1.790
  1.830
  1.880
  1.920
  1.950
  1.990
  2.020
  2.040
  2.070
  2.090
  2.110
  2.130
  2.150
  2.170
  2.190
  2.200
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.280
  2.290
  2.290
  2.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.253
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  265
  412
  448
  486
  525
  566
  608
  652
  698
  746
  796
  847
  901
  956
  1,014
  1,075
  1,138
  1,203
  1,272
  1,343
  1,418
  1,496
  1,577
  1,662
  1,751
  1,843
  1,941
  2,042
  2,149
  2,260
  2,377
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  101
  111
  122
  133
  144
  156
  169
  182
  195
  209
  224
  239
  254
  271
  288
  305
  324
  343
  363
  384
  406
  429
  452
  477
  503
  530
  559
  588
  620
  652
  686
Funds from operations, $m
  441
  523
  570
  618
  669
  722
  777
  834
  893
  955
  1,019
  1,086
  1,155
  1,227
  1,302
  1,380
  1,462
  1,546
  1,635
  1,727
  1,823
  1,924
  2,029
  2,139
  2,254
  2,374
  2,499
  2,631
  2,768
  2,912
  3,063
Change in working capital, $m
  -33
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
Cash from operations, $m
  474
  546
  594
  644
  696
  750
  806
  864
  924
  987
  1,053
  1,120
  1,191
  1,265
  1,341
  1,421
  1,504
  1,591
  1,681
  1,775
  1,873
  1,976
  2,084
  2,196
  2,313
  2,436
  2,564
  2,699
  2,840
  2,987
  3,142
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -101
  -111
  -122
  -133
  -144
  -156
  -169
  -182
  -195
  -209
  -224
  -239
  -254
  -271
  -288
  -305
  -324
  -343
  -363
  -384
  -406
  -429
  -452
  -477
  -503
  -530
  -559
  -588
  -620
  -652
New CAPEX, $m
  -541
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -228
  -238
  -248
  -259
  -271
  -283
  -296
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -355
  -372
  -389
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -826
  -216
  -232
  -248
  -264
  -280
  -298
  -316
  -335
  -354
  -374
  -396
  -418
  -440
  -465
  -490
  -515
  -543
  -571
  -601
  -632
  -665
  -700
  -735
  -773
  -813
  -854
  -898
  -943
  -992
  -1,041
Free cash flow, $m
  -352
  330
  362
  396
  432
  469
  507
  548
  589
  633
  678
  725
  774
  824
  877
  932
  989
  1,048
  1,110
  1,174
  1,241
  1,311
  1,384
  1,460
  1,540
  1,623
  1,710
  1,801
  1,896
  1,996
  2,100
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  353
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  292
  304
  317
  331
  345
  360
  376
  393
  411
  429
  449
  470
  492
  515
  539
  564
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  250
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  292
  304
  317
  331
  345
  360
  376
  393
  411
  429
  449
  470
  492
  515
  539
  564
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -103
  498
  537
  578
  622
  666
  713
  761
  811
  864
  918
  974
  1,033
  1,094
  1,158
  1,224
  1,293
  1,365
  1,440
  1,519
  1,601
  1,687
  1,777
  1,871
  1,969
  2,072
  2,180
  2,293
  2,411
  2,535
  2,665
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -170
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  717
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,148
  466
  505
  545
  586
  630
  675
  722
  770
  821
  873
  928
  985
  1,044
  1,106
  1,170
  1,237
  1,307
  1,379
  1,456
  1,535
  1,618
  1,705
  1,796
  1,891
  1,990
  2,094
  2,203
  2,317
  2,436
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,101
  427
  439
  449
  455
  457
  456
  451
  442
  430
  415
  396
  374
  350
  325
  297
  269
  241
  212
  185
  159
  134
  112
  91
  74
  58
  45
  34
  25
  18
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Spirit Airlines, Inc. provides low-fare airline services. As of February 7, 2017, it operated approximately 420 daily flights to 59 destinations in the United States, the Caribbean, and Latin America. As of December 31, 2016, the company had a fleet of 95 Airbus single-aisle aircraft comprising 29 A319s, 45 A320ceos, 5 A320neos, and 16 A321ceos. It offers tickets through its call centers and airport ticket counters, as well as online through www.spirit.com; and through various third parties, including online, traditional travel agents, and electronic global distribution systems. The company was formerly known as Clippert Trucking Company and changed its name to Spirit Airlines, Inc. in 1992. Spirit Airlines, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Miramar, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Spirit Airlines (SAVE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.8
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -50.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 93.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 64.4%
Total Debt to Equity 70.4%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Total Capital 12.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Return On Equity 20.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
EBITDA Margin 24.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Operating Margin 19.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 18%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Net Profit Margin 11.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Effective Tax Rate 36.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SAVE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAVE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2322 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Spirit Airlines. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Spirit Airlines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAVE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SAVE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Spirit Airlines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Spirit Airlines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAVE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAVE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Spirit Airlines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Spirit Airlines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAVE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAVE are equal to 49.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Spirit Airlines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAVE is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1395 million for Spirit Airlines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 68.03 million for Spirit Airlines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Spirit Airlines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

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Stock chart of SAVE Financial statements of SAVE Annual reports of SAVE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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