Intrinsic value of Sabra Healthcare REIT - SBRA

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$28.87

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$28.87

 
Intrinsic value

$3.86

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SBRA.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SBRA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.21
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  261
  266
  272
  279
  287
  296
  305
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  450
  470
  492
  514
  538
  563
  589
  617
  646
  676
  709
  743
  779
  816
  856
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  180
  185
  189
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  293
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  580
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  195
  180
  185
  189
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  293
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  580
Operating income, $m
  66
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  102
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
EBITDA, $m
  134
  155
  159
  163
  167
  172
  178
  184
  190
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  453
  475
  499
Interest expense (income), $m
  59
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
Earnings before tax, $m
  70
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
Tax expense, $m
  0
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
Net income, $m
  70
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,266
  2,275
  2,328
  2,388
  2,455
  2,529
  2,611
  2,700
  2,796
  2,900
  3,011
  3,130
  3,257
  3,392
  3,536
  3,689
  3,850
  4,021
  4,202
  4,393
  4,595
  4,808
  5,033
  5,270
  5,519
  5,782
  6,059
  6,350
  6,656
  6,978
  7,318
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,240
  2,275
  2,328
  2,388
  2,455
  2,529
  2,611
  2,700
  2,796
  2,900
  3,011
  3,130
  3,257
  3,392
  3,536
  3,689
  3,850
  4,021
  4,202
  4,393
  4,595
  4,808
  5,033
  5,270
  5,519
  5,782
  6,059
  6,350
  6,656
  6,978
  7,318
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
  0.117
Average production assets, $m
  2,025
  2,065
  2,113
  2,167
  2,228
  2,295
  2,369
  2,450
  2,538
  2,632
  2,733
  2,841
  2,956
  3,079
  3,209
  3,348
  3,494
  3,650
  3,814
  3,987
  4,171
  4,364
  4,568
  4,783
  5,009
  5,247
  5,499
  5,763
  6,041
  6,333
  6,641
Working capital, $m
  0
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
Total debt, $m
  1,211
  1,231
  1,260
  1,293
  1,331
  1,372
  1,418
  1,467
  1,521
  1,579
  1,641
  1,708
  1,778
  1,854
  1,934
  2,019
  2,109
  2,205
  2,306
  2,413
  2,525
  2,644
  2,769
  2,901
  3,041
  3,187
  3,342
  3,504
  3,675
  3,855
  4,044
Total liabilities, $m
  1,250
  1,270
  1,299
  1,332
  1,370
  1,411
  1,457
  1,506
  1,560
  1,618
  1,680
  1,747
  1,817
  1,893
  1,973
  2,058
  2,148
  2,244
  2,345
  2,452
  2,564
  2,683
  2,808
  2,940
  3,080
  3,226
  3,381
  3,543
  3,714
  3,894
  4,083
Total equity, $m
  1,016
  1,006
  1,029
  1,055
  1,085
  1,118
  1,154
  1,193
  1,236
  1,282
  1,331
  1,383
  1,440
  1,499
  1,563
  1,630
  1,702
  1,777
  1,857
  1,942
  2,031
  2,125
  2,225
  2,329
  2,439
  2,556
  2,678
  2,807
  2,942
  3,084
  3,234
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,266
  2,276
  2,328
  2,387
  2,455
  2,529
  2,611
  2,699
  2,796
  2,900
  3,011
  3,130
  3,257
  3,392
  3,536
  3,688
  3,850
  4,021
  4,202
  4,394
  4,595
  4,808
  5,033
  5,269
  5,519
  5,782
  6,059
  6,350
  6,656
  6,978
  7,317
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.192
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442
  0.442

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  70
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
  213
  223
Funds from operations, $m
  183
  91
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  177
  77
  94
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  151
  157
  164
  172
  179
  188
  196
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -193
  -203
  -213
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -308
Cash from investing activities, $m
  142
  -109
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -151
  -161
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -200
  -210
  -222
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -386
  -406
  -427
  -449
  -471
  -496
  -521
Free cash flow, $m
  319
  -31
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -222
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -174
  20
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  1
  17
  21
  26
  31
  35
  40
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -182
  21
  46
  54
  63
  73
  81
  90
  99
  107
  116
  124
  134
  143
  153
  163
  173
  183
  195
  207
  219
  231
  244
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  353
  371
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  137
  -12
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  38
  -16
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -150
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  99.1
  98.0
  96.7
  95.2
  93.6
  91.9
  90.1
  88.3
  86.3
  84.4
  82.4
  80.3
  78.3
  76.3
  74.3
  72.3
  70.3
  68.3
  66.4
  64.5
  62.6
  60.8
  59.0
  57.2
  55.5
  53.8
  52.2
  50.6
  49.1

Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. The company, through its subsidiaries, owns and invests in real estate properties for the healthcare industry. Its property portfolio consists of 86 properties comprising 67 skilled nursing facilities; 10 combined skilled nursing, assisted living, and independent living facilities; 5 assisted living facilities; 2 mental health facilities; 1 independent living facility; and 1 continuing care retirement community. The company leases its properties to subsidiaries of Sun Healthcare Group, Inc. As of December 31, 2010, its properties had a total of 9,603 licensed beds or units across 19 states. The company is based in Irvine, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sabra Healthcare REIT (SBRA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.9
Price to Sales 7.2
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 119.2%
Total Debt to Equity 119.2%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Equity 6.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 97.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 98.5%
EBITDA Margin 75.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75%
Operating Margin 25.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 26.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
Net Profit Margin 26.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 170%

SBRA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SBRA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $261 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sabra Healthcare REIT. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Sabra Healthcare REIT. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SBRA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for SBRA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sabra Healthcare REIT, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sabra Healthcare REIT.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SBRA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SBRA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Sabra Healthcare REIT.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sabra Healthcare REIT. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SBRA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SBRA are equal to 775.7%.

Life of production assets of 29.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sabra Healthcare REIT operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SBRA is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1016 million for Sabra Healthcare REIT - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.879 million for Sabra Healthcare REIT is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sabra Healthcare REIT at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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Stock chart of SBRA Financial statements of SBRA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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