Intrinsic value of Scholastic - SCHL

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$43.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$43.75

 
Intrinsic value

$25.53

 
Up/down potential

-42%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCHL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.26
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,673
  1,706
  1,746
  1,791
  1,841
  1,897
  1,958
  2,025
  2,097
  2,175
  2,258
  2,347
  2,443
  2,544
  2,652
  2,766
  2,887
  3,016
  3,152
  3,295
  3,446
  3,606
  3,774
  3,952
  4,139
  4,336
  4,544
  4,762
  4,992
  5,234
  5,488
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  334
  342
  350
  360
  370
  382
  394
  408
  423
  439
  444
  462
  481
  501
  523
  546
  570
  596
  623
  652
  682
  714
  747
  783
  820
  859
  900
  944
  990
  1,038
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,347
  1,381
  1,415
  1,450
  1,487
  1,524
  1,562
  1,601
  1,641
  1,682
  1,724
  1,767
  1,811
  1,857
  1,903
  1,951
  1,999
  2,049
  2,101
  2,153
  2,207
  2,262
  2,319
  2,377
  2,436
  2,497
  2,559
  2,623
  2,689
  2,756
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,605
  1,681
  1,723
  1,765
  1,810
  1,857
  1,906
  1,956
  2,009
  2,064
  2,121
  2,168
  2,229
  2,292
  2,358
  2,426
  2,497
  2,569
  2,645
  2,724
  2,805
  2,889
  2,976
  3,066
  3,160
  3,256
  3,356
  3,459
  3,567
  3,679
  3,794
Operating income, $m
  68
  25
  24
  25
  31
  40
  52
  68
  88
  111
  138
  179
  214
  252
  294
  340
  391
  446
  506
  571
  642
  717
  799
  886
  980
  1,080
  1,188
  1,302
  1,425
  1,555
  1,694
EBITDA, $m
  107
  70
  68
  71
  78
  88
  101
  119
  139
  164
  192
  224
  260
  300
  344
  393
  446
  504
  566
  634
  707
  786
  871
  962
  1,059
  1,163
  1,274
  1,393
  1,520
  1,655
  1,799
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  3
  7
  11
  15
  20
  26
  31
  38
  45
  52
  60
  69
  78
  88
  98
  109
  120
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  204
  220
  238
  257
  276
  297
  318
Earnings before tax, $m
  69
  25
  21
  19
  20
  25
  32
  43
  56
  73
  93
  127
  153
  183
  216
  253
  293
  338
  386
  439
  497
  559
  626
  698
  776
  860
  950
  1,046
  1,149
  1,258
  1,376
Tax expense, $m
  25
  7
  6
  5
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  20
  25
  34
  41
  49
  58
  68
  79
  91
  104
  119
  134
  151
  169
  189
  210
  232
  256
  282
  310
  340
  371
Net income, $m
  41
  19
  15
  14
  15
  18
  24
  31
  41
  53
  68
  93
  112
  133
  158
  184
  214
  246
  282
  321
  362
  408
  457
  510
  567
  628
  693
  763
  838
  919
  1,004

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  400
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,713
  1,339
  1,370
  1,405
  1,445
  1,489
  1,537
  1,589
  1,646
  1,707
  1,772
  1,843
  1,917
  1,997
  2,082
  2,171
  2,266
  2,367
  2,474
  2,586
  2,705
  2,830
  2,963
  3,102
  3,249
  3,404
  3,566
  3,738
  3,918
  4,108
  4,308
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,313
  1,339
  1,370
  1,405
  1,445
  1,489
  1,537
  1,589
  1,646
  1,707
  1,772
  1,843
  1,917
  1,997
  2,082
  2,171
  2,266
  2,367
  2,474
  2,586
  2,705
  2,830
  2,963
  3,102
  3,249
  3,404
  3,566
  3,738
  3,918
  4,108
  4,308
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.275
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.273
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
  1.274
Average production assets, $m
  535
  544
  557
  571
  587
  605
  625
  646
  669
  694
  720
  749
  779
  812
  846
  882
  921
  962
  1,005
  1,051
  1,099
  1,150
  1,204
  1,261
  1,320
  1,383
  1,449
  1,519
  1,592
  1,670
  1,751
Working capital, $m
  572
  181
  185
  190
  195
  201
  208
  215
  222
  231
  239
  249
  259
  270
  281
  293
  306
  320
  334
  349
  365
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  482
  505
  529
  555
  582
Total debt, $m
  6
  9
  20
  32
  45
  60
  77
  95
  114
  135
  157
  181
  207
  234
  263
  294
  326
  361
  397
  436
  476
  519
  564
  612
  662
  715
  771
  829
  891
  956
  1,024
Total liabilities, $m
  456
  458
  469
  481
  494
  509
  526
  544
  563
  584
  606
  630
  656
  683
  712
  743
  775
  810
  846
  885
  925
  968
  1,013
  1,061
  1,111
  1,164
  1,220
  1,278
  1,340
  1,405
  1,473
Total equity, $m
  1,258
  881
  902
  925
  951
  980
  1,011
  1,046
  1,083
  1,123
  1,166
  1,212
  1,262
  1,314
  1,370
  1,429
  1,491
  1,558
  1,628
  1,702
  1,780
  1,862
  1,949
  2,041
  2,138
  2,240
  2,347
  2,460
  2,578
  2,703
  2,834
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,714
  1,339
  1,371
  1,406
  1,445
  1,489
  1,537
  1,590
  1,646
  1,707
  1,772
  1,842
  1,918
  1,997
  2,082
  2,172
  2,266
  2,368
  2,474
  2,587
  2,705
  2,830
  2,962
  3,102
  3,249
  3,404
  3,567
  3,738
  3,918
  4,108
  4,307
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.005
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.050
  0.060
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.653
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  41
  19
  15
  14
  15
  18
  24
  31
  41
  53
  68
  93
  112
  133
  158
  184
  214
  246
  282
  321
  362
  408
  457
  510
  567
  628
  693
  763
  838
  919
  1,004
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
Funds from operations, $m
  -327
  63
  60
  60
  62
  66
  73
  82
  93
  106
  122
  138
  159
  182
  208
  237
  269
  304
  342
  383
  428
  477
  529
  585
  646
  710
  780
  854
  934
  1,019
  1,109
Change in working capital, $m
  -248
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Cash from operations, $m
  -79
  56
  56
  55
  56
  60
  66
  74
  85
  98
  114
  128
  148
  171
  197
  225
  256
  290
  328
  368
  412
  460
  511
  566
  626
  690
  758
  831
  909
  993
  1,082
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
New CAPEX, $m
  -61
  -10
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -40
  -42
  -46
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
Free cash flow, $m
  -119
  14
  11
  7
  6
  7
  10
  16
  23
  33
  45
  57
  73
  92
  114
  138
  165
  194
  227
  262
  301
  343
  389
  438
  491
  548
  609
  675
  745
  821
  901
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  31
  0
  0
  4
  7
  7
  5
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  33
  9
  11
  16
  21
  22
  21
  19
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -86
  23
  21
  19
  20
  22
  27
  34
  43
  54
  68
  81
  99
  120
  143
  169
  197
  229
  263
  301
  342
  386
  434
  485
  541
  601
  665
  733
  807
  885
  969
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -53
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  394
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  400
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  14
  25
  34
  50
  67
  87
  110
  135
  163
  193
  227
  263
  303
  347
  394
  444
  499
  557
  621
  688
  761
  838
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  383
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  8
  13
  16
  21
  26
  29
  32
  34
  35
  36
  35
  33
  31
  29
  26
  23
  19
  16
  13
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  99.6
  99.1
  98.5
  98.1
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0
  98.0

Scholastic Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, publishes and distributes children’s books worldwide. It operates through three segments: Children’s Book Publishing and Distribution, Education, and International. The Children’s Book Publishing and Distribution segment engages in the publication and distribution of children’s books, e-books, media, and interactive products through its school book clubs and book fairs, and trade channel. Its original publications include Harry Potter, The Hunger Games, The 39 Clues, Spirit Animals, The Magic School Bus, I Spy, Captain Underpants, Goosebumps, and Clifford The Big Red Dog; and licensed properties consist of Star Wars, Lego, Pokemon, and Geronimo Stilton. In addition, this segment publishes and creates ‘books plus’ products for children, including titles, such as Make Clay Charms, Sew Cute Mini Treats, and Lego Chain Reactions. The Education segment is involved in the publication and distribution of children’s books, classroom magazines, supplemental classroom and professional development materials, and related services comprising custom curriculum and teaching guides, print and on-line references, and non-fiction and fiction focused products, as well as administrative and teacher professional development services for pre-kindergarten to grade 12 in schools and libraries. It publishes non-fiction books under the imprints of Children’s Press and Franklin Watts; and consumer magazines under the Teacher magazine name. The International segment licenses the rights to selected Scholastic titles in 45 languages to other publishing companies; and sells educational materials, software, and children’s books to schools, libraries, bookstores, and other book distributors in approximately 150 countries. The company distributes its products and services directly to schools and libraries through retail stores and the Internet. Scholastic Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scholastic (SCHL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36.7
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -19.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 67
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.5%
Interest Coverage 36
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Total Capital 3.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Return On Equity 3.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.9%
EBITDA Margin 6.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Operating Margin 4.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 36.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 277.6%
Payout Ratio 51.2%

SCHL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCHL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1673 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scholastic. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Scholastic. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCHL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCHL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scholastic, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scholastic.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCHL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1314 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCHL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 33.3% for Scholastic.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scholastic. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCHL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCHL are equal to 31.9%.

Life of production assets of 16.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scholastic operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCHL is equal to 10.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1258 million for Scholastic - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.001 million for Scholastic is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scholastic at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Scholastic reports 3Q loss   [07:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Scholastic Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter Dividend   [Mar-22-17 11:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Scholastic Corporation Announces Third Quarter Dividend   [Dec-14-16 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Scholastic Corp (SCHL) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-07-16 05:08PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 5 more films in Harry Potters world will benefit Time Warner   [Oct-14-16 02:14PM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Scholastic Corporation Announces Second Quarter Dividend   [Sep-21-16 02:00PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of SCHL Financial statements of SCHL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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