Intrinsic value of Scholastic - SCHL

Previous Close

$37.39

  Intrinsic Value

$28.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-23%

Previous close

$37.39

 
Intrinsic value

$28.64

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCHL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.12
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,742
  1,777
  1,818
  1,864
  1,917
  1,975
  2,039
  2,108
  2,183
  2,264
  2,351
  2,444
  2,543
  2,649
  2,761
  2,880
  3,007
  3,140
  3,281
  3,431
  3,588
  3,755
  3,930
  4,115
  4,310
  4,515
  4,731
  4,958
  5,198
  5,449
  5,714
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,236
  1,265
  1,297
  1,333
  1,373
  1,417
  1,465
  1,517
  1,572
  1,632
  1,684
  1,753
  1,826
  1,903
  1,985
  2,072
  2,164
  2,262
  2,364
  2,473
  2,588
  2,709
  2,836
  2,970
  3,112
  3,261
  3,417
  3,582
  3,756
  3,938
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  463
  475
  487
  499
  511
  524
  537
  551
  564
  579
  593
  608
  623
  639
  655
  671
  688
  705
  723
  741
  759
  778
  798
  818
  838
  859
  880
  902
  925
  948
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,653
  1,699
  1,740
  1,784
  1,832
  1,884
  1,941
  2,002
  2,068
  2,136
  2,211
  2,277
  2,361
  2,449
  2,542
  2,640
  2,743
  2,852
  2,967
  3,087
  3,214
  3,347
  3,487
  3,634
  3,788
  3,950
  4,120
  4,297
  4,484
  4,681
  4,886
Operating income, $m
  89
  77
  78
  81
  85
  91
  98
  106
  116
  127
  140
  167
  183
  200
  220
  241
  264
  288
  315
  344
  375
  408
  443
  481
  522
  565
  612
  661
  713
  769
  828
EBITDA, $m
  151
  141
  143
  147
  153
  160
  169
  180
  192
  206
  221
  238
  257
  278
  300
  325
  352
  380
  411
  444
  480
  518
  558
  602
  648
  698
  750
  806
  865
  928
  995
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  86
  94
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
Earnings before tax, $m
  88
  77
  77
  78
  80
  83
  88
  93
  100
  109
  118
  141
  153
  166
  181
  197
  215
  234
  255
  278
  303
  329
  357
  388
  421
  456
  493
  533
  576
  621
  670
Tax expense, $m
  35
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  32
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  105
  114
  123
  133
  144
  155
  168
  181
Net income, $m
  52
  56
  56
  57
  58
  61
  64
  68
  73
  79
  86
  103
  111
  121
  132
  144
  157
  171
  186
  203
  221
  240
  261
  283
  307
  333
  360
  389
  420
  453
  489

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  444
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,760
  1,342
  1,373
  1,408
  1,448
  1,492
  1,540
  1,592
  1,649
  1,710
  1,776
  1,846
  1,921
  2,001
  2,086
  2,175
  2,271
  2,372
  2,478
  2,591
  2,710
  2,836
  2,968
  3,108
  3,255
  3,410
  3,573
  3,745
  3,926
  4,116
  4,316
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,316
  1,342
  1,373
  1,408
  1,448
  1,492
  1,540
  1,592
  1,649
  1,710
  1,776
  1,846
  1,921
  2,001
  2,086
  2,175
  2,271
  2,372
  2,478
  2,591
  2,710
  2,836
  2,968
  3,108
  3,255
  3,410
  3,573
  3,745
  3,926
  4,116
  4,316
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
  1.324
Average production assets, $m
  551
  561
  574
  589
  606
  624
  644
  666
  690
  716
  743
  772
  804
  837
  873
  910
  950
  992
  1,037
  1,084
  1,134
  1,187
  1,242
  1,300
  1,362
  1,427
  1,495
  1,567
  1,642
  1,722
  1,806
Working capital, $m
  584
  149
  153
  157
  161
  166
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  205
  214
  223
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  346
  362
  379
  397
  417
  437
  458
  480
Total debt, $m
  6
  9
  19
  31
  45
  60
  76
  94
  113
  134
  156
  180
  205
  232
  261
  291
  324
  358
  394
  432
  473
  515
  560
  608
  658
  710
  765
  824
  885
  949
  1,017
Total liabilities, $m
  453
  455
  465
  477
  491
  506
  522
  540
  559
  580
  602
  626
  651
  678
  707
  737
  770
  804
  840
  878
  919
  961
  1,006
  1,054
  1,104
  1,156
  1,211
  1,270
  1,331
  1,395
  1,463
Total equity, $m
  1,308
  887
  907
  931
  957
  986
  1,018
  1,052
  1,090
  1,130
  1,174
  1,220
  1,270
  1,322
  1,379
  1,438
  1,501
  1,568
  1,638
  1,713
  1,792
  1,875
  1,962
  2,054
  2,152
  2,254
  2,362
  2,475
  2,595
  2,721
  2,853
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,761
  1,342
  1,372
  1,408
  1,448
  1,492
  1,540
  1,592
  1,649
  1,710
  1,776
  1,846
  1,921
  2,000
  2,086
  2,175
  2,271
  2,372
  2,478
  2,591
  2,711
  2,836
  2,968
  3,108
  3,256
  3,410
  3,573
  3,745
  3,926
  4,116
  4,316
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.005
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.090
  0.100
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.657
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661
  0.661

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  56
  56
  57
  58
  61
  64
  68
  73
  79
  86
  103
  111
  121
  132
  144
  157
  171
  186
  203
  221
  240
  261
  283
  307
  333
  360
  389
  420
  453
  489
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  62
  64
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  72
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
Funds from operations, $m
  108
  120
  121
  123
  126
  130
  136
  142
  149
  157
  167
  174
  186
  199
  213
  228
  245
  263
  282
  303
  326
  350
  376
  404
  433
  465
  498
  534
  572
  613
  656
Change in working capital, $m
  -33
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  141
  117
  118
  119
  122
  125
  130
  136
  143
  151
  160
  166
  178
  190
  203
  218
  234
  252
  270
  291
  313
  336
  361
  388
  417
  447
  480
  515
  552
  592
  634
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
New CAPEX, $m
  -93
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -93
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
Free cash flow, $m
  48
  56
  53
  51
  51
  51
  52
  54
  57
  61
  66
  68
  75
  82
  90
  100
  110
  121
  134
  148
  162
  178
  196
  215
  235
  257
  280
  305
  332
  360
  391
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  17
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  65
  65
  63
  63
  64
  66
  69
  72
  77
  82
  88
  92
  100
  109
  119
  130
  142
  156
  170
  186
  203
  221
  241
  262
  285
  309
  335
  363
  393
  425
  458
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -126
  -132
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  438
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  486
  43
  40
  38
  37
  37
  37
  39
  41
  45
  46
  51
  56
  63
  71
  79
  89
  100
  111
  124
  138
  153
  170
  187
  207
  227
  250
  273
  299
  326
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  466
  39
  35
  31
  29
  27
  25
  24
  24
  23
  22
  22
  21
  21
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  16
  14
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Scholastic Corporation is a publisher and distributor of children's books, a provider of print and digital instructional materials for pre-kindergarten (pre-K) to grade 12, and a producer of educational and entertaining children's media. The Company operates through three segments: Children's Book Publishing and Distribution, Education and International. The Children's Book Publishing and Distribution segment includes the publication and distribution of children's books, e-books, media and interactive products in the United States through its book clubs and book fairs in its school channels and through the trade channel. The Education segment includes publication and distribution to schools and libraries of children's books, classroom magazines, supplemental classroom materials, and print and online reference and non-fiction products for grades pre-K to 12 in the United States. The International segment includes its international operations, and export and foreign rights businesses.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scholastic (SCHL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 52.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -21.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 74
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.5%
Interest Coverage 89
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Return On Equity 4.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.8%
EBITDA Margin 8.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 39.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.9%
Payout Ratio 40.4%

SCHL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCHL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1742 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scholastic. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Scholastic. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCHL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCHL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scholastic, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scholastic.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCHL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $452 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCHL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16.7% for Scholastic.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scholastic. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCHL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCHL are equal to 31.6%.

Life of production assets of 10.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scholastic operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCHL is equal to 8.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1308 million for Scholastic - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.036 million for Scholastic is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scholastic at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Scholastic Corp. : October 17, 2017   [Oct-17-17 09:59AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Some Companies Have Growth Stories -- and Some Don't   [Sep-22-17 10:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Company News For Sep 22, 2017   [10:18AM  Zacks]
▶ Scholastic reports 1Q loss   [Sep-21-17 10:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [05:03PM  Motley Fool]
▶ How Harry Potter Killed Scholastic Shares   [10:30AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Scholastic Corporation Announces Second Quarter Dividend   [Sep-20-17 12:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Scholastic Corp. : August 8, 2017   [Aug-08-17 05:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Scholastic posts 4Q profit   [Jul-21-17 12:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ Scholastic Corporation Announces First Quarter Dividend   [Jul-19-17 01:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Two New Harry Potter Books Coming This October   [Jul-18-17 10:53AM  Fortune]
▶ Opening Bell, June 1, 2017   [09:29AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Head Start Celebrates 52nd Birthday   [May-18-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Scholastic Stock Trades Ex-Dividend Wednesday   [Apr-24-17 10:17AM  Investopedia]
▶ Scholastic reports 3Q loss   [07:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Scholastic Corporation Announces Fourth Quarter Dividend   [Mar-22-17 11:30AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of SCHL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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