Intrinsic value of Service International - SCI

Previous Close

$39.06

  Intrinsic Value

$23.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-39%

Previous close

$39.06

 
Intrinsic value

$23.82

 
Up/down potential

-39%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.51
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,031
  3,092
  3,163
  3,244
  3,335
  3,436
  3,547
  3,668
  3,799
  3,940
  4,091
  4,253
  4,425
  4,609
  4,804
  5,012
  5,231
  5,464
  5,710
  5,969
  6,244
  6,533
  6,838
  7,160
  7,499
  7,856
  8,232
  8,628
  9,044
  9,482
  9,943
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,525
  2,579
  2,641
  2,710
  2,787
  2,871
  2,963
  3,062
  3,169
  3,284
  3,226
  3,357
  3,497
  3,645
  3,802
  3,969
  4,145
  4,332
  4,529
  4,737
  4,956
  5,188
  5,432
  5,689
  5,960
  6,245
  6,545
  6,861
  7,193
  7,543
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,542
  2,525
  2,579
  2,641
  2,710
  2,787
  2,871
  2,963
  3,062
  3,169
  3,284
  3,226
  3,357
  3,497
  3,645
  3,802
  3,969
  4,145
  4,332
  4,529
  4,737
  4,956
  5,188
  5,432
  5,689
  5,960
  6,245
  6,545
  6,861
  7,193
  7,543
Operating income, $m
  489
  566
  583
  603
  625
  649
  676
  705
  737
  771
  807
  1,026
  1,068
  1,112
  1,160
  1,210
  1,263
  1,319
  1,378
  1,441
  1,507
  1,577
  1,650
  1,728
  1,810
  1,896
  1,987
  2,082
  2,183
  2,288
  2,400
EBITDA, $m
  734
  878
  898
  921
  947
  976
  1,007
  1,041
  1,078
  1,118
  1,161
  1,207
  1,256
  1,308
  1,364
  1,423
  1,485
  1,551
  1,621
  1,695
  1,772
  1,855
  1,941
  2,033
  2,129
  2,230
  2,337
  2,449
  2,567
  2,692
  2,823
Interest expense (income), $m
  157
  157
  158
  171
  185
  200
  218
  237
  258
  280
  304
  331
  358
  388
  420
  453
  489
  527
  567
  609
  654
  701
  751
  804
  859
  918
  979
  1,044
  1,112
  1,184
  1,259
Earnings before tax, $m
  327
  410
  425
  432
  440
  449
  459
  469
  479
  491
  503
  696
  710
  724
  740
  756
  773
  792
  811
  831
  853
  875
  899
  924
  951
  978
  1,008
  1,038
  1,071
  1,105
  1,140
Tax expense, $m
  150
  111
  115
  117
  119
  121
  124
  127
  129
  133
  136
  188
  192
  196
  200
  204
  209
  214
  219
  224
  230
  236
  243
  250
  257
  264
  272
  280
  289
  298
  308
Net income, $m
  177
  299
  310
  316
  322
  328
  335
  342
  350
  358
  367
  508
  518
  529
  540
  552
  565
  578
  592
  607
  623
  639
  656
  675
  694
  714
  736
  758
  782
  806
  833

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  195
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  12,038
  12,077
  12,354
  12,672
  13,028
  13,423
  13,857
  14,329
  14,839
  15,390
  15,980
  16,612
  17,287
  18,004
  18,767
  19,577
  20,435
  21,343
  22,303
  23,318
  24,389
  25,520
  26,712
  27,969
  29,293
  30,687
  32,156
  33,701
  35,328
  37,038
  38,838
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  11,843
  12,077
  12,354
  12,672
  13,028
  13,423
  13,857
  14,329
  14,839
  15,390
  15,980
  16,612
  17,287
  18,004
  18,767
  19,577
  20,435
  21,343
  22,303
  23,318
  24,389
  25,520
  26,712
  27,969
  29,293
  30,687
  32,156
  33,701
  35,328
  37,038
  38,838
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
  0.256
Average production assets, $m
  1,987
  2,025
  2,072
  2,125
  2,185
  2,251
  2,323
  2,403
  2,488
  2,581
  2,680
  2,786
  2,899
  3,019
  3,147
  3,283
  3,427
  3,579
  3,740
  3,910
  4,090
  4,279
  4,479
  4,690
  4,912
  5,146
  5,392
  5,651
  5,924
  6,211
  6,512
Working capital, $m
  -184
  -272
  -278
  -285
  -294
  -302
  -312
  -323
  -334
  -347
  -360
  -374
  -389
  -406
  -423
  -441
  -460
  -481
  -502
  -525
  -549
  -575
  -602
  -630
  -660
  -691
  -724
  -759
  -796
  -834
  -875
Total debt, $m
  3,308
  3,232
  3,482
  3,768
  4,089
  4,444
  4,834
  5,259
  5,719
  6,214
  6,745
  7,314
  7,921
  8,567
  9,254
  9,982
  10,754
  11,572
  12,436
  13,349
  14,313
  15,331
  16,404
  17,535
  18,727
  19,982
  21,303
  22,694
  24,158
  25,698
  27,317
Total liabilities, $m
  10,945
  10,869
  11,119
  11,405
  11,726
  12,081
  12,471
  12,896
  13,356
  13,851
  14,382
  14,951
  15,558
  16,204
  16,891
  17,619
  18,391
  19,209
  20,073
  20,986
  21,950
  22,968
  24,041
  25,172
  26,364
  27,619
  28,940
  30,331
  31,795
  33,335
  34,954
Total equity, $m
  1,093
  1,208
  1,235
  1,267
  1,303
  1,342
  1,386
  1,433
  1,484
  1,539
  1,598
  1,661
  1,729
  1,800
  1,877
  1,958
  2,043
  2,134
  2,230
  2,332
  2,439
  2,552
  2,671
  2,797
  2,929
  3,069
  3,216
  3,370
  3,533
  3,704
  3,884
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  12,038
  12,077
  12,354
  12,672
  13,029
  13,423
  13,857
  14,329
  14,840
  15,390
  15,980
  16,612
  17,287
  18,004
  18,768
  19,577
  20,434
  21,343
  22,303
  23,318
  24,389
  25,520
  26,712
  27,969
  29,293
  30,688
  32,156
  33,701
  35,328
  37,039
  38,838
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.027
  2.680
  2.820
  2.970
  3.140
  3.310
  3.490
  3.670
  3.850
  4.040
  4.220
  4.400
  4.580
  4.760
  4.930
  5.100
  5.260
  5.420
  5.580
  5.720
  5.870
  6.010
  6.140
  6.270
  6.390
  6.510
  6.620
  6.730
  6.840
  6.940
  7.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.078
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  177
  299
  310
  316
  322
  328
  335
  342
  350
  358
  367
  508
  518
  529
  540
  552
  565
  578
  592
  607
  623
  639
  656
  675
  694
  714
  736
  758
  782
  806
  833
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  245
  311
  314
  318
  322
  326
  331
  336
  341
  347
  354
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  223
  232
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  403
  423
Funds from operations, $m
  451
  610
  625
  634
  643
  654
  665
  678
  691
  706
  721
  689
  706
  725
  744
  765
  787
  810
  835
  861
  888
  917
  947
  979
  1,013
  1,048
  1,086
  1,125
  1,166
  1,210
  1,255
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Cash from operations, $m
  464
  616
  631
  641
  651
  663
  675
  689
  703
  718
  734
  703
  721
  741
  762
  783
  806
  831
  857
  884
  912
  942
  974
  1,008
  1,043
  1,080
  1,119
  1,160
  1,203
  1,248
  1,296
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -129
  -131
  -135
  -138
  -142
  -146
  -151
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -319
  -334
  -350
  -367
  -385
  -403
New CAPEX, $m
  -193
  -39
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -287
  -302
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -216
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -324
  -340
  -357
  -375
  -393
  -413
  -434
  -456
  -478
  -502
  -527
  -553
  -580
  -609
  -640
  -672
  -705
Free cash flow, $m
  248
  448
  453
  453
  454
  455
  456
  459
  461
  464
  468
  423
  428
  432
  438
  443
  449
  456
  463
  471
  479
  487
  496
  506
  516
  527
  538
  551
  563
  577
  591
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  114
  35
  250
  286
  321
  355
  390
  425
  460
  495
  532
  569
  607
  646
  687
  729
  772
  817
  864
  913
  964
  1,017
  1,073
  1,131
  1,192
  1,255
  1,321
  1,391
  1,464
  1,540
  1,620
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -210
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -91
  35
  250
  286
  321
  355
  390
  425
  460
  495
  532
  569
  607
  646
  687
  729
  772
  817
  864
  913
  964
  1,017
  1,073
  1,131
  1,192
  1,255
  1,321
  1,391
  1,464
  1,540
  1,620
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  158
  483
  703
  739
  774
  810
  846
  883
  921
  960
  999
  992
  1,034
  1,078
  1,124
  1,172
  1,222
  1,273
  1,327
  1,384
  1,443
  1,505
  1,569
  1,637
  1,708
  1,782
  1,860
  1,941
  2,027
  2,117
  2,211
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  92
  -199
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  369
  675
  707
  739
  771
  803
  836
  870
  905
  940
  929
  967
  1,007
  1,048
  1,091
  1,136
  1,183
  1,231
  1,282
  1,336
  1,392
  1,450
  1,511
  1,575
  1,643
  1,713
  1,787
  1,864
  1,945
  2,031
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  334
  549
  510
  469
  425
  380
  335
  292
  250
  211
  166
  136
  109
  85
  66
  50
  37
  26
  18
  13
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Service Corporation International is a provider of deathcare products and services, with a network of funeral service locations and cemeteries. The Company's segments include Funeral, Cemetery and Corporate. It conducts both funeral and cemetery operations in the United States and Canada. As December 31, 2016, it operated 1,502 funeral service locations and 470 cemeteries, including 281 funeral service/cemetery combination locations, which are geographically diversified across 45 states, eight Canadian provinces, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. It offers various brands, such as Dignity Memorial, Dignity Planning, National Cremation Society, Advantage Funeral and Cremation Services, and Funeraria del Angel. Its funeral service and cemetery operations consist of funeral service locations, cemeteries, funeral service/cemetery combination locations, crematoria, and related businesses. It sells cemetery property, and funeral and cemetery merchandise and services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Service International (SCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 41.8
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 6.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 27.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 292.5%
Total Debt to Equity 302.7%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Equity 15.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
EBITDA Margin 24.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.7%
Operating Margin 16.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 45.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.1%
Payout Ratio 55.4%

SCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3031 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Service International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Service International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for SCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Service International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Service International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Service International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Service International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCI are equal to 65.5%.

Life of production assets of 15.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Service International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCI is equal to -8.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1093 million for Service International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 188.103 million for Service International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Service International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Service Corp. tops 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-25-17 05:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Grave Concern for Cemetery Operator   [Oct-06-17 02:19PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Service Corporation International Awards 2017 Scholarships   [Sep-27-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Funeral Stock Is Not Dead Yet   [Sep-26-17 01:25AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Funeral Stock Is Not Dead Yet   [Sep-25-17 03:58PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Oil Prices Retreat as Market Waits for OPEC News   [Aug-08-17 12:07AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Oil Gains Ahead of U.S. Rig-Count Data   [06:30AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Service Corp. beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-26-17 11:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Service Corp. tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 05:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Sticker shock: Why people spend $10,000 on funerals   [Mar-07-17 02:35PM  MarketWatch]
▶ The Experts Say You Should Buy These Stocks. So Should You?   [Feb-16-17 01:49PM  Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of SCI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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