Intrinsic value of Stepan - SCL

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$85.96

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$85.96

 
Intrinsic value

$50.91

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.56
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  1,766
  1,853
  1,943
  2,039
  2,140
  2,245
  2,356
  2,473
  2,595
  2,724
  2,859
  3,001
  3,150
  3,306
  3,471
  3,644
  3,825
  4,016
  4,216
  4,426
  4,647
  4,878
  5,122
  5,377
  5,646
  5,928
  6,224
  6,534
  6,861
  7,203
  7,563
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,725
  1,809
  1,898
  1,991
  2,090
  2,193
  2,301
  2,415
  2,534
  2,660
  2,789
  2,928
  3,074
  3,227
  3,387
  3,556
  3,733
  3,919
  4,114
  4,319
  4,535
  4,761
  4,999
  5,248
  5,510
  5,785
  6,074
  6,378
  6,696
  7,031
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,640
  1,725
  1,809
  1,898
  1,991
  2,090
  2,193
  2,301
  2,415
  2,534
  2,660
  2,789
  2,928
  3,074
  3,227
  3,387
  3,556
  3,733
  3,919
  4,114
  4,319
  4,535
  4,761
  4,999
  5,248
  5,510
  5,785
  6,074
  6,378
  6,696
  7,031
Operating income, $m
  126
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
  163
  172
  180
  189
  199
  211
  222
  233
  244
  257
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  344
  361
  379
  398
  417
  438
  460
  483
  507
  533
EBITDA, $m
  201
  207
  217
  227
  239
  250
  263
  276
  289
  304
  319
  335
  351
  369
  387
  406
  427
  448
  470
  494
  518
  544
  571
  600
  630
  661
  694
  729
  765
  803
  844
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
Earnings before tax, $m
  114
  115
  119
  125
  130
  136
  141
  148
  154
  161
  168
  178
  186
  195
  203
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  384
  402
  421
Tax expense, $m
  28
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
Net income, $m
  86
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  268
  280
  294
  308

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  226
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,354
  1,183
  1,241
  1,302
  1,366
  1,434
  1,505
  1,579
  1,657
  1,739
  1,826
  1,916
  2,011
  2,111
  2,216
  2,327
  2,443
  2,564
  2,692
  2,826
  2,967
  3,115
  3,271
  3,434
  3,605
  3,785
  3,974
  4,173
  4,381
  4,600
  4,830
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,128
  1,183
  1,241
  1,302
  1,366
  1,434
  1,505
  1,579
  1,657
  1,739
  1,826
  1,916
  2,011
  2,111
  2,216
  2,327
  2,443
  2,564
  2,692
  2,826
  2,967
  3,115
  3,271
  3,434
  3,605
  3,785
  3,974
  4,173
  4,381
  4,600
  4,830
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.567
  1.566
  1.565
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
  1.566
Average production assets, $m
  589
  617
  647
  679
  712
  748
  785
  823
  864
  907
  952
  999
  1,049
  1,101
  1,156
  1,213
  1,274
  1,337
  1,404
  1,474
  1,547
  1,625
  1,706
  1,791
  1,880
  1,974
  2,072
  2,176
  2,285
  2,399
  2,519
Working capital, $m
  389
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
  309
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  413
  434
  455
  478
  502
  527
  553
  581
  610
  640
  672
  706
  741
  778
  817
Total debt, $m
  317
  323
  359
  396
  436
  477
  520
  566
  614
  664
  717
  773
  831
  892
  957
  1,024
  1,095
  1,170
  1,248
  1,331
  1,417
  1,508
  1,603
  1,703
  1,808
  1,918
  2,034
  2,156
  2,284
  2,418
  2,559
Total liabilities, $m
  719
  725
  761
  798
  838
  879
  922
  968
  1,016
  1,066
  1,119
  1,175
  1,233
  1,294
  1,359
  1,426
  1,497
  1,572
  1,650
  1,733
  1,819
  1,910
  2,005
  2,105
  2,210
  2,320
  2,436
  2,558
  2,686
  2,820
  2,961
Total equity, $m
  635
  458
  480
  504
  529
  555
  582
  611
  641
  673
  706
  742
  778
  817
  858
  900
  945
  992
  1,042
  1,094
  1,148
  1,206
  1,266
  1,329
  1,395
  1,465
  1,538
  1,615
  1,695
  1,780
  1,869
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,354
  1,183
  1,241
  1,302
  1,367
  1,434
  1,504
  1,579
  1,657
  1,739
  1,825
  1,917
  2,011
  2,111
  2,217
  2,326
  2,442
  2,564
  2,692
  2,827
  2,967
  3,116
  3,271
  3,434
  3,605
  3,785
  3,974
  4,173
  4,381
  4,600
  4,830
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.499
  0.710
  0.750
  0.790
  0.820
  0.860
  0.890
  0.930
  0.960
  0.990
  1.010
  1.040
  1.070
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.280
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.363
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  86
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  268
  280
  294
  308
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
Funds from operations, $m
  235
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  265
  278
  291
  305
  319
  335
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  444
  465
  488
  511
  536
  562
  590
  619
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Cash from operations, $m
  212
  169
  160
  167
  174
  182
  191
  199
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
  503
  527
  553
  580
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
New CAPEX, $m
  -103
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -131
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -326
  -343
  -359
  -378
  -396
  -416
Free cash flow, $m
  81
  67
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -14
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -13
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  67
  102
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  220
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -78
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  279
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  267
  61
  60
  59
  58
  56
  54
  52
  50
  48
  45
  42
  39
  36
  33
  29
  26
  23
  20
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Stepan Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells specialty and intermediate chemicals to manufacturers for use in various end products worldwide. It operates in three segments: Surfactants, Polymers, and Specialty Products. The Surfactants segment offers surfactants that are used as principal ingredients in consumer and industrial cleaning products such as detergents for washing clothes, dishes, carpets, floors, and walls, as well as shampoos and body washes; and other applications, including fabric softeners, germicidal quaternary compounds, and lubricating ingredients, as well as emulsifiers for spreading agricultural products and industrial applications, such as latex systems, plastics, and composites. The Polymers segment provides polyurethane polyols that are used in the manufacture of rigid foam for thermal insulation in the construction industry, as well as a base raw material for coatings, adhesives, sealants and elastomers, and flexible foams; polyester resins, including liquid and powdered resins, which are used in CASE and polyurethane systems house applications; and phthalic anhydride that is used in unsaturated polyester resins, alkyd resins, and plasticizers for applications in construction materials and components of automotive, boating, and other consumer products. The Specialty Products segment offers flavors, emulsifiers, and solubilizers for use in the food, flavoring, nutritional supplement, and pharmaceutical applications. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Northfield, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Stepan (SCL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.4
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 45.5%
Total Debt to Equity 49.9%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Total Capital 9.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Equity 14.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
EBITDA Margin 11.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Operating Margin 7.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Effective Tax Rate 24.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.3%
Payout Ratio 19.8%

SCL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1766 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Stepan. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Stepan. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Stepan, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Stepan.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Stepan.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Stepan. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCL are equal to 33.3%.

Life of production assets of 8.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Stepan operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCL is equal to 10.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $635 million for Stepan - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22.555 million for Stepan is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Stepan at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stepan Company Announces Dividend Record Date Correction   [May-19-17 08:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Stepan Co. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 04:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Stepan Co. posts 1Q profit   [07:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ Stepan Reports Record Quarterly Earnings   [06:59AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Stepan Declares Quarterly Dividend   [06:59AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Stepan Co. posts 4Q profit   [07:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Stepan Declares Quarterly Dividend   [06:59AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Stepan Company (SCL) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 10:28AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Six Dividend Machines Boosting Dividends   [Oct-24-16 10:56AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Stepan Declares Quarterly Dividend   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Stepan Announces Canadian Plant Closure   [07:55AM  PR Newswire]
▶ STEPAN CO Files SEC form 10-Q, Quarterly Report   [Apr-29-16 10:56AM  EDGAR Online]
Stock chart of SCL Financial statements of SCL Annual reports of SCL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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