Intrinsic value of Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A - SCMP

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$10.25

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$10.25

 
Intrinsic value

$37.56

 
Up/down potential

+266%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCMP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  50.33
  19.10
  17.69
  16.42
  15.28
  14.25
  13.33
  12.49
  11.74
  11.07
  10.46
  9.92
  9.42
  8.98
  8.58
  8.23
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.12
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
Revenue, $m
  230
  274
  322
  375
  433
  494
  560
  630
  704
  782
  864
  950
  1,039
  1,133
  1,230
  1,331
  1,436
  1,545
  1,659
  1,777
  1,900
  2,027
  2,160
  2,298
  2,442
  2,591
  2,747
  2,909
  3,079
  3,255
  3,440
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  194
  227
  263
  302
  344
  389
  437
  487
  540
  596
  647
  708
  772
  838
  907
  978
  1,053
  1,130
  1,211
  1,294
  1,381
  1,471
  1,566
  1,663
  1,765
  1,871
  1,982
  2,097
  2,218
  2,343
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  190
  194
  227
  263
  302
  344
  389
  437
  487
  540
  596
  647
  708
  772
  838
  907
  978
  1,053
  1,130
  1,211
  1,294
  1,381
  1,471
  1,566
  1,663
  1,765
  1,871
  1,982
  2,097
  2,218
  2,343
Operating income, $m
  40
  80
  95
  112
  131
  150
  171
  194
  217
  242
  268
  303
  331
  361
  392
  424
  458
  493
  529
  566
  606
  646
  688
  732
  778
  826
  876
  927
  981
  1,038
  1,096
EBITDA, $m
  86
  119
  141
  164
  189
  216
  244
  275
  307
  341
  377
  414
  453
  494
  536
  580
  626
  674
  724
  775
  829
  884
  942
  1,002
  1,065
  1,130
  1,198
  1,269
  1,343
  1,420
  1,500
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  22
  21
  25
  30
  36
  42
  48
  54
  61
  69
  76
  84
  93
  101
  110
  120
  130
  140
  151
  162
  173
  185
  197
  210
  224
  238
  252
  267
  283
  300
Earnings before tax, $m
  14
  58
  74
  87
  100
  114
  130
  146
  163
  181
  200
  227
  247
  268
  291
  314
  338
  363
  389
  416
  444
  473
  503
  535
  568
  602
  638
  675
  714
  754
  797
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  16
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  61
  67
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  163
  172
  182
  193
  204
  215
Net income, $m
  18
  43
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  106
  119
  132
  146
  165
  180
  196
  212
  229
  247
  265
  284
  304
  324
  345
  368
  391
  415
  440
  466
  493
  521
  551
  581

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  521
  385
  453
  527
  608
  694
  787
  885
  989
  1,099
  1,213
  1,334
  1,460
  1,591
  1,727
  1,869
  2,017
  2,170
  2,330
  2,496
  2,668
  2,847
  3,034
  3,227
  3,429
  3,639
  3,858
  4,086
  4,324
  4,572
  4,831
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  323
  385
  453
  527
  608
  694
  787
  885
  989
  1,099
  1,213
  1,334
  1,460
  1,591
  1,727
  1,869
  2,017
  2,170
  2,330
  2,496
  2,668
  2,847
  3,034
  3,227
  3,429
  3,639
  3,858
  4,086
  4,324
  4,572
  4,831
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.712
  0.712
  0.711
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
Average production assets, $m
  135
  161
  189
  220
  254
  290
  329
  370
  413
  459
  507
  557
  610
  665
  722
  781
  843
  907
  974
  1,043
  1,115
  1,190
  1,268
  1,349
  1,433
  1,521
  1,612
  1,708
  1,807
  1,911
  2,019
Working capital, $m
  275
  92
  108
  126
  145
  166
  188
  211
  236
  262
  289
  318
  348
  379
  412
  446
  481
  518
  556
  595
  636
  679
  724
  770
  818
  868
  920
  975
  1,031
  1,090
  1,152
Total debt, $m
  291
  283
  345
  411
  484
  562
  645
  734
  827
  926
  1,029
  1,137
  1,251
  1,369
  1,491
  1,619
  1,752
  1,890
  2,034
  2,183
  2,338
  2,500
  2,667
  2,842
  3,023
  3,212
  3,409
  3,614
  3,828
  4,052
  4,285
Total liabilities, $m
  354
  346
  408
  474
  547
  625
  708
  797
  890
  989
  1,092
  1,200
  1,314
  1,432
  1,554
  1,682
  1,815
  1,953
  2,097
  2,246
  2,401
  2,563
  2,730
  2,905
  3,086
  3,275
  3,472
  3,677
  3,891
  4,115
  4,348
Total equity, $m
  167
  38
  45
  53
  61
  69
  79
  89
  99
  110
  121
  133
  146
  159
  173
  187
  202
  217
  233
  250
  267
  285
  303
  323
  343
  364
  386
  409
  432
  457
  483
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  521
  384
  453
  527
  608
  694
  787
  886
  989
  1,099
  1,213
  1,333
  1,460
  1,591
  1,727
  1,869
  2,017
  2,170
  2,330
  2,496
  2,668
  2,848
  3,033
  3,228
  3,429
  3,639
  3,858
  4,086
  4,323
  4,572
  4,831
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.743
  7.360
  7.610
  7.800
  7.960
  8.090
  8.200
  8.290
  8.360
  8.430
  8.480
  8.530
  8.570
  8.600
  8.640
  8.660
  8.690
  8.710
  8.730
  8.750
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.096
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  43
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  106
  119
  132
  146
  165
  180
  196
  212
  229
  247
  265
  284
  304
  324
  345
  368
  391
  415
  440
  466
  493
  521
  551
  581
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  46
  39
  45
  51
  58
  65
  73
  81
  90
  99
  109
  111
  122
  133
  144
  156
  169
  181
  195
  209
  223
  238
  254
  270
  287
  304
  322
  342
  361
  382
  404
Funds from operations, $m
  -30
  82
  100
  115
  131
  149
  168
  188
  209
  231
  254
  277
  302
  329
  357
  385
  415
  446
  479
  512
  547
  583
  621
  660
  701
  744
  788
  834
  882
  933
  985
Change in working capital, $m
  -38
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  66
  83
  97
  112
  128
  146
  164
  184
  205
  227
  248
  272
  298
  324
  351
  380
  410
  441
  473
  506
  541
  577
  614
  653
  694
  736
  780
  826
  874
  923
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -111
  -122
  -133
  -144
  -156
  -169
  -181
  -195
  -209
  -223
  -238
  -254
  -270
  -287
  -304
  -322
  -342
  -361
  -382
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -53
  -60
  -69
  -78
  -87
  -97
  -107
  -117
  -129
  -140
  -151
  -164
  -177
  -190
  -203
  -218
  -233
  -248
  -264
  -281
  -298
  -316
  -335
  -354
  -375
  -395
  -417
  -441
  -465
  -490
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  14
  23
  28
  34
  41
  49
  57
  67
  77
  87
  96
  108
  121
  134
  148
  162
  177
  192
  209
  225
  243
  261
  280
  299
  319
  340
  362
  385
  408
  433
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  21
  -8
  61
  67
  72
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  149
  155
  161
  168
  174
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  71
  -8
  61
  67
  72
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  149
  155
  161
  168
  174
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  90
  6
  84
  95
  107
  119
  132
  146
  160
  175
  191
  205
  221
  239
  257
  276
  295
  315
  336
  358
  380
  404
  428
  454
  481
  508
  537
  567
  599
  632
  666
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -81
  -69
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  134
  77
  88
  99
  111
  123
  136
  150
  164
  179
  193
  209
  226
  243
  261
  280
  300
  320
  341
  363
  386
  410
  435
  460
  487
  515
  545
  575
  607
  640
Discount rate, %
 
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  129
  70
  76
  81
  85
  88
  90
  92
  92
  91
  89
  86
  82
  78
  73
  67
  61
  55
  48
  42
  36
  30
  25
  21
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the research and development of proprietary drugs for the treatment of gastrointestinal, ophthalmic, autoimmune, and oncology-based inflammatory disorders in the United States, Japan, Switzerland, and internationally. The company’s marketed product includes AMITIZA, a ClC-2 chloride channel activator for the treatment of chronic idiopathic constipation in adults; irritable bowel syndrome with constipation in adult women; opioid-induced constipation in patients with chronic non-cancer pain; chronic constipation; and pediatric functional constipation. Its product candidates, which are in clinical development stage comprise Cobiprostone that is in Phase IIa trials for the treatment of oral mucositis, non-erosive reflux, and symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux diseases; RTU-1096, which has completed Phase I trial for treating inflammation/immune-related disorders; and RTU-009 that is in development stage for inflammation/immune-related disorders, as well as CPP-1X/sulindac combination product, which is in phase III clinical trial for the treatment of familial adenomatous polyposis. Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1996 is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A (SCMP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.7
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 55.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 63.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 50.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 174.3%
Total Debt to Equity 174.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Equity 14.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.3%
EBITDA Margin 34.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Operating Margin 17.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Effective Tax Rate -28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

SCMP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCMP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $230 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCMP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for SCMP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCMP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCMP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.4% for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCMP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCMP are equal to 58.7%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCMP is equal to 33.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $167 million for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.575 million for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Sucampo tops 1Q revenue forecasts   [06:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sucampo Announces First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call   [Apr-19-17 06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 7 of the Worst-Performing Stocks in Gurus' Portfolios   [Apr-07-17 04:51PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Sucampo just bought this local rare disease company for $200M   [Apr-03-17 10:20AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Sucampo just bought this local rare disease company for $200M   [10:20AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Sucampo Acquires Vtesse Inc.   [06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Local drug company stocks react to Trump's proposed cuts to NIH, FDA   [05:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600   [Feb-17-17 05:41PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Trump, Interest Rates And Biotech Investing In 2017   [Dec-23-16 11:22AM  at Forbes]
Stock chart of SCMP Financial statements of SCMP Annual reports of SCMP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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