Intrinsic value of Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A - SCMP

Previous Close

$11.80

  Intrinsic Value

$15.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+30%

  Value-price divergence*

-97%

Previous close

$11.80

 
Intrinsic value

$15.39

 
Up/down potential

+30%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-97%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCMP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  50.33
  15.40
  14.36
  13.42
  12.58
  11.82
  11.14
  10.53
  9.97
  9.48
  9.03
  8.63
  8.26
  7.94
  7.64
  7.38
  7.14
  6.93
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.14
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.75
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
Revenue, $m
  230
  265
  304
  344
  388
  433
  482
  532
  586
  641
  699
  759
  822
  887
  955
  1,025
  1,099
  1,175
  1,254
  1,336
  1,422
  1,511
  1,604
  1,700
  1,801
  1,906
  2,015
  2,130
  2,249
  2,374
  2,504
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  188
  214
  242
  271
  303
  335
  370
  406
  444
  483
  517
  560
  604
  651
  699
  748
  800
  854
  910
  969
  1,029
  1,092
  1,158
  1,227
  1,298
  1,373
  1,451
  1,532
  1,617
  1,706
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  190
  188
  214
  242
  271
  303
  335
  370
  406
  444
  483
  517
  560
  604
  651
  699
  748
  800
  854
  910
  969
  1,029
  1,092
  1,158
  1,227
  1,298
  1,373
  1,451
  1,532
  1,617
  1,706
Operating income, $m
  40
  77
  89
  102
  116
  131
  146
  162
  179
  197
  215
  242
  262
  283
  304
  327
  350
  374
  400
  426
  453
  482
  511
  542
  574
  607
  642
  679
  717
  757
  798
EBITDA, $m
  86
  116
  132
  150
  169
  189
  210
  232
  255
  280
  305
  331
  358
  387
  416
  447
  479
  512
  547
  583
  620
  659
  699
  741
  785
  831
  879
  929
  981
  1,035
  1,092
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  22
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  113
  120
  128
  137
  145
  154
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  217
Earnings before tax, $m
  14
  56
  69
  79
  89
  99
  110
  122
  134
  147
  160
  181
  196
  211
  226
  242
  259
  276
  294
  313
  333
  353
  374
  397
  420
  444
  469
  495
  522
  551
  581
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  15
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
  79
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
Net income, $m
  18
  41
  51
  57
  65
  72
  81
  89
  98
  107
  117
  132
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  243
  258
  273
  289
  306
  324
  342
  361
  381
  402
  424

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  521
  373
  426
  484
  544
  609
  677
  748
  822
  900
  982
  1,066
  1,154
  1,246
  1,341
  1,440
  1,543
  1,650
  1,761
  1,877
  1,997
  2,122
  2,252
  2,388
  2,529
  2,677
  2,830
  2,991
  3,159
  3,334
  3,517
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  323
  373
  426
  484
  544
  609
  677
  748
  822
  900
  982
  1,066
  1,154
  1,246
  1,341
  1,440
  1,543
  1,650
  1,761
  1,877
  1,997
  2,122
  2,252
  2,388
  2,529
  2,677
  2,830
  2,991
  3,159
  3,334
  3,517
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.712
  0.710
  0.714
  0.711
  0.713
  0.711
  0.712
  0.711
  0.713
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
  0.712
Average production assets, $m
  135
  156
  178
  202
  228
  254
  283
  313
  344
  376
  410
  446
  482
  521
  561
  602
  645
  690
  736
  784
  835
  887
  941
  998
  1,057
  1,119
  1,183
  1,250
  1,320
  1,393
  1,470
Working capital, $m
  275
  89
  102
  115
  130
  145
  161
  178
  196
  215
  234
  254
  275
  297
  320
  344
  368
  394
  420
  448
  476
  506
  537
  570
  603
  638
  675
  713
  753
  795
  839
Total debt, $m
  291
  273
  321
  372
  427
  485
  546
  610
  677
  747
  820
  897
  976
  1,058
  1,144
  1,233
  1,326
  1,422
  1,522
  1,626
  1,734
  1,847
  1,964
  2,086
  2,213
  2,346
  2,484
  2,629
  2,780
  2,937
  3,102
Total liabilities, $m
  354
  336
  384
  435
  490
  548
  609
  673
  740
  810
  883
  960
  1,039
  1,121
  1,207
  1,296
  1,389
  1,485
  1,585
  1,689
  1,797
  1,910
  2,027
  2,149
  2,276
  2,409
  2,547
  2,692
  2,843
  3,000
  3,165
Total equity, $m
  167
  37
  43
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  107
  115
  125
  134
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  253
  268
  283
  299
  316
  333
  352
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  521
  373
  427
  483
  544
  609
  677
  748
  822
  900
  981
  1,067
  1,154
  1,246
  1,341
  1,440
  1,543
  1,650
  1,761
  1,877
  1,997
  2,122
  2,252
  2,388
  2,529
  2,677
  2,830
  2,991
  3,159
  3,333
  3,517
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.743
  7.310
  7.520
  7.700
  7.840
  7.970
  8.070
  8.160
  8.230
  8.300
  8.360
  8.410
  8.450
  8.490
  8.530
  8.560
  8.590
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.096
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  41
  51
  57
  65
  72
  81
  89
  98
  107
  117
  132
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  243
  258
  273
  289
  306
  324
  342
  361
  381
  402
  424
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  46
  38
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  89
  89
  96
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
  200
  211
  224
  237
  250
  264
  279
  294
Funds from operations, $m
  -30
  79
  94
  105
  118
  131
  144
  159
  174
  190
  206
  221
  239
  258
  277
  297
  318
  340
  362
  386
  410
  435
  462
  489
  518
  548
  579
  611
  645
  681
  718
Change in working capital, $m
  -38
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  67
  81
  92
  103
  115
  128
  142
  156
  171
  187
  201
  218
  236
  254
  274
  293
  314
  336
  358
  381
  405
  431
  457
  484
  512
  542
  573
  605
  639
  674
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -40
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -177
  -188
  -200
  -211
  -224
  -237
  -250
  -264
  -279
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -48
  -53
  -60
  -65
  -73
  -79
  -87
  -94
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -134
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -219
  -231
  -245
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -304
  -320
  -337
  -355
Free cash flow, $m
  6
  20
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  84
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  140
  151
  162
  174
  186
  199
  212
  225
  239
  254
  269
  285
  302
  319
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  21
  -18
  48
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  71
  10
  48
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  90
  29
  75
  83
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  140
  151
  160
  172
  184
  196
  209
  223
  237
  251
  266
  282
  299
  316
  334
  353
  372
  393
  414
  436
  459
  484
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -81
  -68
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  158
  70
  78
  86
  94
  103
  113
  122
  132
  143
  152
  163
  175
  187
  199
  212
  226
  240
  255
  270
  286
  303
  320
  338
  357
  377
  398
  419
  442
  466
Discount rate, %
 
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  151
  64
  67
  70
  72
  74
  75
  75
  74
  73
  70
  67
  64
  60
  55
  51
  46
  41
  36
  31
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on the development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products. Its primary focus areas are gastroenterology, ophthalmology and oncology-related disorders. Its product candidates include VTS-270, Lubiprostone (AMITIZA), Unoprostone is opropyl (RESCULA) and CPP-1X/sulindac combination product. VTS-270 is an investigational drug under clinical study for the treatment of Niemann-Pick Disease Type C-1, an ultra-orphan, progressive and fatal disease. AMITIZA is a ClC-2 chloride channel activator, which has been approved for three indications that cover distinct patient types: chronic idiopathic constipation, irritable bowel syndrome with constipation, and opioid-induced constipation. RESCULA is a Big Potassium channel activator used to lower intraocular pressure. CPP-1X/sulindac combination product is meant for the treatment of familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A (SCMP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.5
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 64
Price to Free Cash Flow 73.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 50.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 174.3%
Total Debt to Equity 174.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Equity 14.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.3%
EBITDA Margin 34.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Operating Margin 17.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Effective Tax Rate -28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

SCMP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCMP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $230 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCMP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for SCMP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCMP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCMP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.4% for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCMP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCMP are equal to 58.7%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCMP is equal to 33.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $167 million for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.968 million for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Sucampo reports 2Q loss   [12:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sucampo Reports Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-02-17 06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Sucampo Announces Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Call   [Jul-19-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Dr. Karen Smith Joins Sucampos Board of Directors   [Jul-18-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Hiddem Gems in the Healthcare Sector   [12:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sucampo tops 1Q revenue forecasts   [06:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sucampo Announces First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call   [Apr-19-17 06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 7 of the Worst-Performing Stocks in Gurus' Portfolios   [Apr-07-17 04:51PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Sucampo just bought this local rare disease company for $200M   [Apr-03-17 10:20AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Sucampo just bought this local rare disease company for $200M   [10:20AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Sucampo Acquires Vtesse Inc.   [06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Local drug company stocks react to Trump's proposed cuts to NIH, FDA   [05:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600   [Feb-17-17 05:41PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of SCMP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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