Intrinsic value of Scansource - SCSC

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$40.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$40.75

 
Intrinsic value

$37.82

 
Up/down potential

-7%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCSC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.97
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,540
  3,611
  3,694
  3,789
  3,895
  4,013
  4,143
  4,284
  4,437
  4,601
  4,778
  4,967
  5,169
  5,383
  5,611
  5,853
  6,110
  6,381
  6,668
  6,972
  7,292
  7,630
  7,987
  8,362
  8,758
  9,175
  9,614
  10,076
  10,563
  11,074
  11,612
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,495
  3,575
  3,667
  3,770
  3,884
  4,009
  4,145
  4,293
  4,451
  4,622
  4,795
  4,990
  5,197
  5,417
  5,651
  5,898
  6,160
  6,438
  6,730
  7,040
  7,366
  7,710
  8,073
  8,455
  8,858
  9,281
  9,727
  10,197
  10,691
  11,210
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,443
  3,495
  3,575
  3,667
  3,770
  3,884
  4,009
  4,145
  4,293
  4,451
  4,622
  4,795
  4,990
  5,197
  5,417
  5,651
  5,898
  6,160
  6,438
  6,730
  7,040
  7,366
  7,710
  8,073
  8,455
  8,858
  9,281
  9,727
  10,197
  10,691
  11,210
Operating income, $m
  97
  116
  119
  122
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  253
  264
  277
  290
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
EBITDA, $m
  114
  135
  138
  141
  145
  150
  155
  160
  165
  172
  178
  185
  193
  201
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  112
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  130
  134
  138
  142
  157
  162
  167
  173
  179
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  254
  264
  276
  288
  300
  313
  327
Tax expense, $m
  32
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  88
Net income, $m
  64
  82
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,491
  1,458
  1,492
  1,530
  1,573
  1,621
  1,673
  1,730
  1,792
  1,858
  1,930
  2,006
  2,087
  2,174
  2,266
  2,364
  2,468
  2,577
  2,693
  2,816
  2,945
  3,082
  3,226
  3,377
  3,537
  3,706
  3,883
  4,070
  4,266
  4,473
  4,690
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,430
  1,458
  1,492
  1,530
  1,573
  1,621
  1,673
  1,730
  1,792
  1,858
  1,930
  2,006
  2,087
  2,174
  2,266
  2,364
  2,468
  2,577
  2,693
  2,816
  2,945
  3,082
  3,226
  3,377
  3,537
  3,706
  3,883
  4,070
  4,266
  4,473
  4,690
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.476
  2.477
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.477
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
  2.476
Average production assets, $m
  99
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
Working capital, $m
  644
  596
  609
  625
  643
  662
  684
  707
  732
  759
  788
  820
  853
  888
  926
  966
  1,008
  1,053
  1,100
  1,150
  1,203
  1,259
  1,318
  1,380
  1,445
  1,514
  1,586
  1,663
  1,743
  1,827
  1,916
Total debt, $m
  77
  92
  108
  128
  149
  173
  199
  228
  259
  292
  328
  366
  407
  450
  496
  545
  597
  652
  710
  772
  837
  905
  977
  1,053
  1,133
  1,218
  1,306
  1,400
  1,498
  1,602
  1,711
Total liabilities, $m
  717
  731
  747
  767
  788
  812
  838
  867
  898
  931
  967
  1,005
  1,046
  1,089
  1,135
  1,184
  1,236
  1,291
  1,349
  1,411
  1,476
  1,544
  1,616
  1,692
  1,772
  1,857
  1,945
  2,039
  2,137
  2,241
  2,350
Total equity, $m
  775
  728
  744
  764
  785
  809
  835
  863
  894
  927
  963
  1,001
  1,042
  1,085
  1,131
  1,180
  1,231
  1,286
  1,344
  1,405
  1,470
  1,538
  1,610
  1,685
  1,765
  1,849
  1,938
  2,031
  2,129
  2,232
  2,340
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,492
  1,459
  1,491
  1,531
  1,573
  1,621
  1,673
  1,730
  1,792
  1,858
  1,930
  2,006
  2,088
  2,174
  2,266
  2,364
  2,467
  2,577
  2,693
  2,816
  2,946
  3,082
  3,226
  3,377
  3,537
  3,706
  3,883
  4,070
  4,266
  4,473
  4,690
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.099
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.240
  0.260
  0.290
  0.310
  0.340
  0.370
  0.390
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  82
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  101
  103
  105
  107
  110
  112
  115
  119
  122
  126
  128
  132
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  185
  192
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
Change in working capital, $m
  -47
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
Cash from operations, $m
  52
  95
  89
  89
  89
  90
  91
  92
  93
  95
  97
  96
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  120
  124
  129
  133
  138
  143
  149
  154
  161
  167
  174
  181
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -3
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -45
Free cash flow, $m
  -22
  83
  77
  76
  76
  76
  77
  77
  78
  79
  80
  78
  80
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  68
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  109
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -96
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  109
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -60
  97
  94
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  115
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  215
  225
  235
  245
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  34
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  145
  77
  77
  76
  76
  77
  77
  78
  79
  80
  79
  80
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  139
  70
  67
  63
  59
  56
  52
  49
  45
  42
  37
  34
  31
  28
  25
  22
  19
  17
  15
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ScanSource, Inc. operates as a wholesale distributor of specialty technology products in North America and internationally. It operates in two segments, Worldwide Barcode & Security and Worldwide Communications & Services. The Worldwide Barcode & Security segment focuses on automatic identification and data capture (AIDC), point-of-sale (POS), networking, and electronic physical security technologies. Its AIDC and POS products are used to automate the collection, processing, and communication of information for commercial and industrial applications, such as retail sales, distribution, shipping, inventory control, materials handling, warehouse management, and health care applications; electronic physical security products, including identification, access control, video surveillance, intrusion-related, wireless, and networking infrastructure products; and 3D printing solutions to replace and complement traditional methods, as well as reduce the time and cost of designing new products. The Worldwide Communications & Services segment focuses on communications technologies and services. It provides voice and data products, such as private branch exchanges (PBX), key systems, and telephone handsets and components that are used in voice, fax, data, voice recognition, call center management, and IP communication applications; converged communication products, such as telephone and IP network interfaces, voice over Internet protocol systems, PBX integration products, and carrier-class board systems-level products; and video products comprising video and voice conferencing, and network systems. This segment also offers data networking products that include switches, servers, and routers; and provides value-added support programs and services, such as education and training, customer configuration, marketing services, network assessments, WiFi services, and partnership programs. ScanSource, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Greenville, South Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scansource (SCSC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.3
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -42.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 9.9%
Total Debt to Equity 9.9%
Interest Coverage 49
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Equity 8.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Asset Turnover 2.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 3.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Operating Margin 2.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

SCSC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCSC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3540 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scansource. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Scansource. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCSC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCSC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scansource, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scansource.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCSC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCSC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Scansource.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scansource. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCSC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCSC are equal to 2.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scansource operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCSC is equal to 16.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $775 million for Scansource - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.608 million for Scansource is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scansource at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to ScanSource, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 02:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ScanSource misses Street 3Q forecasts   [May-09-17 05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ScanSource beats 2Q profit forecasts   [05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Reports Second Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Finish Line Inc (FINL) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-07-16 01:51AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ ScanSource Reports First Quarter Results   [04:09PM  Business Wire]
▶ After-hours buzz: HSY, UAL, AAL & more   [Aug-29-16 06:17PM  at CNBC]
▶ ScanSource Moves up Fortune 1000   [Jun-13-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ScanSource Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of SCSC Financial statements of SCSC Annual reports of SCSC
Valuation of Stocks

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