Intrinsic value of Select Comfort - SCSS

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$30.93

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$30.93

 
Intrinsic value

$26.42

 
Up/down potential

-15%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCSS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.99
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  1,311
  1,416
  1,525
  1,638
  1,756
  1,878
  2,005
  2,138
  2,275
  2,418
  2,567
  2,723
  2,884
  3,053
  3,229
  3,413
  3,604
  3,805
  4,014
  4,233
  4,461
  4,701
  4,951
  5,214
  5,488
  5,776
  6,077
  6,392
  6,723
  7,070
  7,433
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,328
  1,430
  1,537
  1,647
  1,762
  1,881
  2,005
  2,134
  2,268
  2,408
  2,554
  2,705
  2,864
  3,029
  3,201
  3,381
  3,568
  3,765
  3,970
  4,185
  4,409
  4,644
  4,890
  5,147
  5,417
  5,700
  5,996
  6,306
  6,631
  6,972
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,235
  1,328
  1,430
  1,537
  1,647
  1,762
  1,881
  2,005
  2,134
  2,268
  2,408
  2,554
  2,705
  2,864
  3,029
  3,201
  3,381
  3,568
  3,765
  3,970
  4,185
  4,409
  4,644
  4,890
  5,147
  5,417
  5,700
  5,996
  6,306
  6,631
  6,972
Operating income, $m
  77
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  133
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  200
  212
  224
  236
  249
  263
  277
  292
  307
  324
  341
  359
  377
  397
  417
  439
  461
EBITDA, $m
  134
  149
  160
  172
  184
  197
  211
  224
  239
  254
  270
  286
  303
  321
  339
  358
  379
  400
  422
  445
  469
  494
  520
  548
  576
  607
  638
  671
  706
  742
  781
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
Earnings before tax, $m
  76
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  295
  310
  325
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
Tax expense, $m
  25
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
Net income, $m
  51
  64
  68
  73
  78
  82
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  144
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  226
  238
  250
  262
  275
  289
  304

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  457
  481
  518
  556
  596
  638
  681
  726
  772
  821
  872
  924
  979
  1,036
  1,096
  1,158
  1,223
  1,291
  1,363
  1,437
  1,514
  1,596
  1,681
  1,770
  1,863
  1,960
  2,063
  2,170
  2,282
  2,400
  2,523
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  445
  481
  518
  556
  596
  638
  681
  726
  772
  821
  872
  924
  979
  1,036
  1,096
  1,158
  1,223
  1,291
  1,363
  1,437
  1,514
  1,596
  1,681
  1,770
  1,863
  1,960
  2,063
  2,170
  2,282
  2,400
  2,523
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.946
  2.944
  2.944
  2.946
  2.946
  2.944
  2.944
  2.945
  2.947
  2.945
  2.944
  2.947
  2.946
  2.947
  2.946
  2.947
  2.947
  2.947
  2.945
  2.946
  2.946
  2.945
  2.945
  2.946
  2.946
  2.947
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
Average production assets, $m
  287
  310
  334
  359
  385
  411
  439
  468
  498
  530
  562
  596
  632
  669
  707
  747
  789
  833
  879
  927
  977
  1,029
  1,084
  1,142
  1,202
  1,265
  1,331
  1,400
  1,472
  1,548
  1,628
Working capital, $m
  -87
  -108
  -116
  -125
  -133
  -143
  -152
  -162
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -259
  -274
  -289
  -305
  -322
  -339
  -357
  -376
  -396
  -417
  -439
  -462
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -565
Total debt, $m
  0
  24
  48
  74
  101
  128
  157
  187
  218
  251
  284
  319
  356
  394
  434
  476
  519
  564
  612
  661
  713
  767
  824
  883
  946
  1,011
  1,079
  1,150
  1,225
  1,304
  1,386
Total liabilities, $m
  297
  321
  345
  371
  398
  425
  454
  484
  515
  548
  581
  616
  653
  691
  731
  773
  816
  861
  909
  958
  1,010
  1,064
  1,121
  1,180
  1,243
  1,308
  1,376
  1,447
  1,522
  1,601
  1,683
Total equity, $m
  160
  160
  172
  185
  198
  212
  227
  242
  257
  273
  290
  308
  326
  345
  365
  386
  407
  430
  454
  478
  504
  531
  560
  589
  620
  653
  687
  723
  760
  799
  840
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  457
  481
  517
  556
  596
  637
  681
  726
  772
  821
  871
  924
  979
  1,036
  1,096
  1,159
  1,223
  1,291
  1,363
  1,436
  1,514
  1,595
  1,681
  1,769
  1,863
  1,961
  2,063
  2,170
  2,282
  2,400
  2,523
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.150
  0.280
  0.400
  0.510
  0.600
  0.690
  0.770
  0.850
  0.920
  0.980
  1.040
  1.090
  1.140
  1.190
  1.230
  1.270
  1.310
  1.350
  1.380
  1.410
  1.440
  1.470
  1.500
  1.520
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  51
  64
  68
  73
  78
  82
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  144
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  226
  238
  250
  262
  275
  289
  304
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  57
  61
  66
  70
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  274
  289
  304
  319
Funds from operations, $m
  185
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  275
  290
  306
  323
  340
  358
  377
  397
  417
  439
  462
  486
  510
  537
  564
  593
  623
Change in working capital, $m
  33
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  152
  133
  142
  152
  162
  173
  183
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  321
  338
  356
  375
  394
  415
  436
  459
  483
  507
  533
  561
  589
  619
  650
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -289
  -304
New CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -43
  -79
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -314
  -330
  -346
  -365
  -384
Free cash flow, $m
  109
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  219
  231
  242
  254
  267
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -124
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -118
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -9
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  158
  167
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  349
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  62
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  77
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  219
  230
  241
  254
  266
  280
  294
  308
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  74
  64
  65
  65
  65
  65
  64
  63
  61
  59
  56
  53
  50
  47
  43
  39
  35
  31
  28
  24
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Select Comfort Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides sleep solutions and services in the United States. It designs, manufactures, markets, retails, and services beds and bedding accessories, such as mattresses, adjustable bases, pillows, sheets, and other bedding products under the Sleep Number brand. The company sells its products through retail, direct marketing, and e-commerce channels, as well as directly to consumers. As of June 20, 2016, it operated approximately 500 retail stores. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Select Comfort (SCSS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 8.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 77
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Return On Total Capital 26.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Return On Equity 26.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.3%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Operating Margin 5.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 32.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

SCSS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCSS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1311 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Select Comfort. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Select Comfort. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCSS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCSS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Select Comfort, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Select Comfort.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCSS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCSS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Select Comfort.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Select Comfort. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCSS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCSS are equal to 21.9%.

Life of production assets of 5.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Select Comfort operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCSS is equal to -7.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $160 million for Select Comfort - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.566 million for Select Comfort is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Select Comfort at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Company News for April 21, 2017   [10:09AM  Zacks]
▶ After-hours buzz: QCOM, CSX, AXP & more   [Apr-19-17 05:59PM  CNBC]
▶ Select Comfort beats Street 1Q forecasts   [04:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Select Comfort Has a Lot to Prove on Wednesday   [Apr-17-17 09:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Select Comfort CEO Shelly Ibach's compensation up 9 percent   [06:30AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 9th   [Mar-09-17 09:05AM  Zacks]
▶ Select Comfort misses Street 4Q forecasts   [04:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Select Comfort Has a Lot to Prove on Wednesday   [Feb-06-17 03:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 10 Best Online Mattress Companies and Websites   [Jan-13-17 01:11PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Sleep Number Introduces the Sleep Number 360 Smart Bed   [Jan-03-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Select Comfort Corp. (SCSS) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 10:21AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Select Comfort Corp's Shares Plunged 11% in October   [Nov-07-16 07:24PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Smarter Sleep is Here and "it" Changes Everything   [Sep-15-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of SCSS Financial statements of SCSS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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