Intrinsic value of Select Comfort - SCSS

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$29.06

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$29.06

 
Intrinsic value

$33.48

 
Up/down potential

+15%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCSS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.99
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  1,311
  1,463
  1,623
  1,791
  1,967
  2,150
  2,342
  2,541
  2,748
  2,964
  3,188
  3,420
  3,662
  3,913
  4,175
  4,447
  4,729
  5,024
  5,330
  5,649
  5,982
  6,329
  6,692
  7,070
  7,464
  7,877
  8,308
  8,759
  9,231
  9,724
  10,240
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,372
  1,522
  1,680
  1,845
  2,017
  2,196
  2,383
  2,578
  2,780
  2,990
  3,208
  3,435
  3,671
  3,916
  4,171
  4,436
  4,712
  4,999
  5,299
  5,611
  5,936
  6,276
  6,631
  7,001
  7,388
  7,792
  8,215
  8,658
  9,120
  9,605
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,235
  1,372
  1,522
  1,680
  1,845
  2,017
  2,196
  2,383
  2,578
  2,780
  2,990
  3,208
  3,435
  3,671
  3,916
  4,171
  4,436
  4,712
  4,999
  5,299
  5,611
  5,936
  6,276
  6,631
  7,001
  7,388
  7,792
  8,215
  8,658
  9,120
  9,605
Operating income, $m
  77
  91
  101
  111
  122
  133
  145
  158
  170
  184
  198
  212
  227
  243
  259
  276
  294
  312
  331
  351
  371
  393
  415
  439
  463
  489
  516
  544
  573
  604
  636
EBITDA, $m
  134
  154
  170
  188
  207
  226
  246
  267
  289
  311
  335
  359
  385
  411
  438
  467
  497
  528
  560
  593
  628
  665
  703
  742
  784
  827
  872
  920
  969
  1,021
  1,075
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
Earnings before tax, $m
  76
  91
  99
  109
  118
  128
  139
  149
  161
  172
  185
  197
  211
  224
  239
  253
  269
  285
  301
  319
  337
  356
  376
  396
  418
  440
  464
  488
  514
  541
  569
Tax expense, $m
  25
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  64
  68
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
Net income, $m
  51
  66
  73
  79
  86
  94
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  274
  289
  305
  321
  339
  356
  375
  395
  415

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  457
  497
  551
  608
  668
  730
  795
  862
  933
  1,006
  1,082
  1,161
  1,243
  1,328
  1,417
  1,509
  1,605
  1,705
  1,809
  1,918
  2,031
  2,148
  2,271
  2,400
  2,534
  2,674
  2,820
  2,973
  3,133
  3,301
  3,476
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  445
  497
  551
  608
  668
  730
  795
  862
  933
  1,006
  1,082
  1,161
  1,243
  1,328
  1,417
  1,509
  1,605
  1,705
  1,809
  1,918
  2,031
  2,148
  2,271
  2,400
  2,534
  2,674
  2,820
  2,973
  3,133
  3,301
  3,476
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.946
  2.944
  2.946
  2.946
  2.945
  2.945
  2.946
  2.948
  2.945
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
  2.947
  2.946
  2.947
  2.946
  2.947
  2.946
  2.945
  2.945
  2.946
  2.947
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
  2.946
Average production assets, $m
  287
  320
  355
  392
  431
  471
  513
  556
  602
  649
  698
  749
  802
  857
  914
  974
  1,036
  1,100
  1,167
  1,237
  1,310
  1,386
  1,465
  1,548
  1,635
  1,725
  1,819
  1,918
  2,021
  2,130
  2,243
Working capital, $m
  -87
  -111
  -123
  -136
  -149
  -163
  -178
  -193
  -209
  -225
  -242
  -260
  -278
  -297
  -317
  -338
  -359
  -382
  -405
  -429
  -455
  -481
  -509
  -537
  -567
  -599
  -631
  -666
  -702
  -739
  -778
Total debt, $m
  0
  34
  70
  109
  148
  190
  233
  278
  325
  374
  425
  477
  532
  589
  648
  710
  774
  840
  910
  982
  1,057
  1,136
  1,218
  1,304
  1,393
  1,486
  1,584
  1,686
  1,793
  1,905
  2,022
Total liabilities, $m
  297
  331
  367
  406
  445
  487
  530
  575
  622
  671
  722
  774
  829
  886
  945
  1,007
  1,071
  1,137
  1,207
  1,279
  1,354
  1,433
  1,515
  1,601
  1,690
  1,783
  1,881
  1,983
  2,090
  2,202
  2,319
Total equity, $m
  160
  165
  183
  202
  222
  243
  265
  287
  311
  335
  360
  387
  414
  442
  472
  503
  535
  568
  602
  639
  676
  715
  756
  799
  844
  890
  939
  990
  1,043
  1,099
  1,158
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  457
  496
  550
  608
  667
  730
  795
  862
  933
  1,006
  1,082
  1,161
  1,243
  1,328
  1,417
  1,510
  1,606
  1,705
  1,809
  1,918
  2,030
  2,148
  2,271
  2,400
  2,534
  2,673
  2,820
  2,973
  3,133
  3,301
  3,477
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.210
  0.380
  0.540
  0.670
  0.780
  0.880
  0.970
  1.050
  1.120
  1.180
  1.230
  1.290
  1.330
  1.370
  1.410
  1.450
  1.480
  1.510
  1.540
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.700
  1.720
  1.730
  1.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  51
  66
  73
  79
  86
  94
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  274
  289
  305
  321
  339
  356
  375
  395
  415
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  57
  63
  70
  77
  85
  92
  101
  109
  118
  127
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  191
  203
  216
  229
  243
  257
  272
  287
  304
  321
  338
  357
  376
  396
  418
  440
Funds from operations, $m
  185
  129
  142
  156
  171
  186
  202
  218
  235
  253
  272
  291
  311
  332
  353
  376
  399
  424
  449
  475
  503
  532
  562
  593
  625
  660
  695
  733
  772
  812
  855
Change in working capital, $m
  33
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
Cash from operations, $m
  152
  141
  155
  169
  184
  200
  216
  233
  251
  270
  289
  309
  329
  351
  373
  397
  421
  446
  472
  500
  528
  558
  589
  622
  655
  691
  728
  767
  807
  850
  894
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -92
  -101
  -109
  -118
  -127
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -168
  -179
  -191
  -203
  -216
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -287
  -304
  -321
  -338
  -357
  -376
  -396
  -418
New CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -43
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -115
  -124
  -134
  -145
  -154
  -165
  -176
  -188
  -200
  -212
  -225
  -239
  -253
  -267
  -283
  -299
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370
  -390
  -411
  -432
  -456
  -479
  -504
  -531
Free cash flow, $m
  109
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  97
  104
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  158
  168
  178
  189
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
  280
  295
  311
  328
  345
  364
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -124
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -118
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -9
  85
  93
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  144
  153
  163
  174
  184
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  320
  337
  355
  373
  393
  413
  435
  457
  481
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  62
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  80
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  178
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  264
  279
  294
  310
  327
  344
  362
  381
  401
  422
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  77
  69
  71
  73
  75
  75
  76
  75
  74
  72
  70
  67
  64
  60
  55
  51
  46
  41
  36
  32
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Select Comfort Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides sleep solutions and services in the United States. It designs, manufactures, markets, retails, and services beds and bedding accessories, such as mattresses, adjustable bases, pillows, sheets, and other bedding products under the Sleep Number brand. The company sells its products through retail, direct marketing, and e-commerce channels, as well as directly to consumers. As of June 20, 2016, it operated approximately 500 retail stores. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Select Comfort (SCSS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.8
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 7.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 77
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Return On Total Capital 26.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Return On Equity 26.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.3%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Operating Margin 5.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 32.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

SCSS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCSS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1311 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Select Comfort. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Select Comfort. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCSS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCSS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Select Comfort, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Select Comfort.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCSS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCSS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Select Comfort.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Select Comfort. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCSS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCSS are equal to 21.9%.

Life of production assets of 5.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Select Comfort operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCSS is equal to -7.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $160 million for Select Comfort - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.638 million for Select Comfort is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Select Comfort at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Select Comfort Corp. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Shares of Select Comfort Corp. Popped 25% in April   [May-08-17 12:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Select Comfort Corp. : May 4, 2017   [May-04-17 04:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Company News for April 21, 2017   [10:09AM  Zacks]
▶ After-hours buzz: QCOM, CSX, AXP & more   [Apr-19-17 05:59PM  CNBC]
▶ Select Comfort beats Street 1Q forecasts   [04:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Select Comfort Has a Lot to Prove on Wednesday   [Apr-17-17 09:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Select Comfort CEO Shelly Ibach's compensation up 9 percent   [06:30AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 9th   [Mar-09-17 09:05AM  Zacks]
▶ Select Comfort misses Street 4Q forecasts   [04:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Select Comfort Has a Lot to Prove on Wednesday   [Feb-06-17 03:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 10 Best Online Mattress Companies and Websites   [Jan-13-17 01:11PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Sleep Number Introduces the Sleep Number 360 Smart Bed   [Jan-03-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Select Comfort Corp. (SCSS) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 10:21AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Select Comfort Corp's Shares Plunged 11% in October   [Nov-07-16 07:24PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Smarter Sleep is Here and "it" Changes Everything   [Sep-15-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of SCSS Financial statements of SCSS Annual reports of SCSS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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