Intrinsic value of Shoe Carnival - SCVL

Previous Close

$26.89

  Intrinsic Value

$20.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-22%

Previous close

$26.89

 
Intrinsic value

$20.89

 
Up/down potential

-22%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCVL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.73
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,001
  1,021
  1,045
  1,071
  1,101
  1,135
  1,172
  1,211
  1,255
  1,301
  1,351
  1,404
  1,461
  1,522
  1,587
  1,655
  1,728
  1,804
  1,886
  1,971
  2,062
  2,158
  2,258
  2,365
  2,477
  2,594
  2,719
  2,849
  2,987
  3,131
  3,284
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  972
  994
  1,020
  1,049
  1,080
  1,115
  1,153
  1,194
  1,239
  1,286
  1,337
  1,391
  1,449
  1,511
  1,576
  1,645
  1,718
  1,795
  1,877
  1,963
  2,054
  2,150
  2,251
  2,358
  2,470
  2,588
  2,713
  2,843
  2,981
  3,126
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  963
  972
  994
  1,020
  1,049
  1,080
  1,115
  1,153
  1,194
  1,239
  1,286
  1,337
  1,391
  1,449
  1,511
  1,576
  1,645
  1,718
  1,795
  1,877
  1,963
  2,054
  2,150
  2,251
  2,358
  2,470
  2,588
  2,713
  2,843
  2,981
  3,126
Operating income, $m
  38
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  114
  119
  125
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
EBITDA, $m
  62
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  99
  104
  108
  113
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  147
Tax expense, $m
  14
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Net income, $m
  24
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  458
  403
  412
  423
  435
  448
  462
  478
  495
  513
  533
  554
  577
  601
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
  778
  814
  851
  891
  933
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,124
  1,179
  1,236
  1,296
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  395
  403
  412
  423
  435
  448
  462
  478
  495
  513
  533
  554
  577
  601
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
  778
  814
  851
  891
  933
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,124
  1,179
  1,236
  1,296
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.534
  2.533
  2.536
  2.532
  2.531
  2.533
  2.537
  2.533
  2.535
  2.536
  2.535
  2.534
  2.532
  2.532
  2.535
  2.534
  2.534
  2.534
  2.535
  2.533
  2.533
  2.536
  2.534
  2.535
  2.535
  2.533
  2.534
  2.535
  2.534
  2.533
  2.534
Average production assets, $m
  100
  102
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  180
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  248
  259
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
Working capital, $m
  266
  207
  212
  217
  224
  230
  238
  246
  255
  264
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  336
  351
  366
  383
  400
  419
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  636
  667
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  19
  24
  29
  35
  42
  49
  56
  64
  72
  81
  91
  101
  112
  123
  135
  147
  161
  175
  189
  205
  221
  239
  257
  276
  296
  317
Total liabilities, $m
  140
  142
  145
  149
  153
  158
  163
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
Total equity, $m
  319
  261
  267
  274
  282
  290
  300
  310
  321
  333
  345
  359
  374
  389
  406
  423
  442
  461
  482
  504
  527
  552
  578
  605
  633
  663
  695
  729
  764
  801
  840
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  459
  403
  412
  423
  435
  448
  463
  478
  495
  514
  533
  554
  577
  600
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
  778
  813
  852
  892
  933
  977
  1,023
  1,073
  1,125
  1,179
  1,236
  1,296
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648
  0.648

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Funds from operations, $m
  74
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  64
  52
  53
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
Free cash flow, $m
  42
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -43
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  21
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  91
  27
  27
  26
  26
  26
  26
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  87
  25
  23
  22
  20
  19
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
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Shoe Carnival, Inc. is a family footwear retailer. The Company's primary activity is the sale of footwear and related products through its retail stores in approximately 30 states within the continental United States and in Puerto Rico. It also offers online shopping on its e-commerce site at www.shoecarnival.com. Its products assortment includes dress and casual shoes, sandals, boots and an assortment of athletic for the entire family in four general categories-women's, men's, children's and athletics. In addition to footwear, its stores carry selected accessory items, such as socks, belts, shoe care items, handbags, sport bags, backpacks, jewelry, scarves and wallets. It classifies athletic shoes by functionality, such as running, basketball or fitness shoes. As of January 28, 2017, it operated 415 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico and offered online shopping at www.shoecarnival.com.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Shoe Carnival (SCVL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.3
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 7.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
EBITDA Margin 6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Operating Margin 3.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 36.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 20.8%

SCVL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCVL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1001 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Shoe Carnival. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Shoe Carnival. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCVL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCVL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Shoe Carnival, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Shoe Carnival.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCVL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCVL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Shoe Carnival.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Shoe Carnival. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCVL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCVL are equal to 10%.

Life of production assets of 4.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Shoe Carnival operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCVL is equal to 20.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $319 million for Shoe Carnival - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.02 million for Shoe Carnival is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Shoe Carnival at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Retail Shorts Squeezed by Walmart Results   [11:55AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Shoe Carnival posts 3Q profit   [04:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Weekly Top Insider Buys Highlight for the Week of Oct. 6   [Oct-08-17 04:26PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Why Shares of Shoe Carnival Jumped 10% in August   [Sep-06-17 02:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Shoe Carnival posts 2Q profit   [Aug-31-17 08:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Unlikely retailer bucks Amazon trend, joins Tiffany with earnings beat   [07:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Shoe Carnival shares rally on earnings beat   [Aug-30-17 06:28PM  MarketWatch]
▶ These 3 Stocks Just Raised Their Dividends   [Jun-29-17 08:54AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Shoe Carnival, Inc. : June 5, 2017   [Jun-05-17 02:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Shoe Carnival posts 1Q profit   [May-24-17 04:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 16th   [May-16-17 10:29AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 5th   [May-05-17 10:12AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Shoe Carnival, Inc. Stock Tumbled Today   [May-03-17 06:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Shoe Carnival, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Shoe Carnival reports 4Q loss   [04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ More Retailers Get on Board With 'Drop Shipping' for E-Commerce   [Jan-26-17 02:20PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Shoe Carnival to Present at the 2017 ICR Conference   [Dec-28-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 08:58AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of SCVL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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