Intrinsic value of Superior Drilling Products - SDPI

Previous Close

$1.72

  Intrinsic Value

$0.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$1.72

 
Intrinsic value

$0.08

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SDPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
(a)
   1
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  0
  26
  40
  59
  86
  121
  166
  223
  293
  378
  477
  592
  724
  873
  1,038
  1,221
  1,420
  1,636
  1,868
  2,115
  2,378
  2,656
  2,949
  3,256
  3,577
  3,913
  4,263
  4,628
  5,007
  5,402
  5,812
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  55
  85
  127
  184
  260
  357
  479
  629
  809
  1,022
  1,269
  1,551
  1,870
  2,224
  2,615
  3,042
  3,505
  4,001
  4,532
  5,095
  5,690
  6,317
  6,975
  7,664
  8,384
  9,134
  9,915
  10,728
  11,573
  12,452
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  55
  85
  127
  184
  260
  357
  479
  629
  809
  1,022
  1,269
  1,551
  1,870
  2,224
  2,615
  3,042
  3,505
  4,001
  4,532
  5,095
  5,690
  6,317
  6,975
  7,664
  8,384
  9,134
  9,915
  10,728
  11,573
  12,452
Operating income, $m
  0
  -30
  -46
  -68
  -99
  -139
  -191
  -256
  -336
  -432
  -545
  -677
  -827
  -997
  -1,186
  -1,395
  -1,622
  -1,869
  -2,134
  -2,417
  -2,717
  -3,034
  -3,369
  -3,720
  -4,087
  -4,471
  -4,871
  -5,287
  -5,721
  -6,171
  -6,640
EBITDA, $m
  0
  -27
  -41
  -61
  -89
  -126
  -173
  -232
  -305
  -392
  -495
  -615
  -751
  -906
  -1,078
  -1,267
  -1,474
  -1,698
  -1,939
  -2,196
  -2,468
  -2,757
  -3,061
  -3,379
  -3,713
  -4,062
  -4,425
  -4,804
  -5,198
  -5,607
  -6,033
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  21
  27
  33
  41
  49
  58
  68
  80
  92
  105
  119
  133
  149
  166
  183
  201
  220
  239
  260
  281
  303
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  -31
  -47
  -70
  -102
  -144
  -197
  -265
  -348
  -448
  -566
  -703
  -860
  -1,037
  -1,235
  -1,453
  -1,691
  -1,949
  -2,226
  -2,521
  -2,836
  -3,168
  -3,518
  -3,885
  -4,270
  -4,671
  -5,090
  -5,527
  -5,981
  -6,453
  -6,943
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  0
  -31
  -47
  -70
  -102
  -144
  -197
  -265
  -348
  -448
  -566
  -703
  -860
  -1,037
  -1,235
  -1,453
  -1,691
  -1,949
  -2,226
  -2,521
  -2,836
  -3,168
  -3,518
  -3,885
  -4,270
  -4,671
  -5,090
  -5,527
  -5,981
  -6,453
  -6,943

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  47
  73
  109
  158
  223
  306
  411
  539
  694
  877
  1,088
  1,331
  1,604
  1,908
  2,244
  2,610
  3,007
  3,433
  3,888
  4,371
  4,882
  5,420
  5,985
  6,576
  7,193
  7,837
  8,507
  9,204
  9,930
  10,683
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  47
  73
  109
  158
  223
  306
  411
  539
  694
  877
  1,088
  1,331
  1,604
  1,908
  2,244
  2,610
  3,007
  3,433
  3,888
  4,371
  4,882
  5,420
  5,985
  6,576
  7,193
  7,837
  8,507
  9,204
  9,930
  10,683
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.553
  0.548
  0.541
  0.544
  0.543
  0.542
  0.543
  0.544
  0.545
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
  0.544
Average production assets, $m
  0
  27
  41
  62
  90
  127
  174
  233
  307
  395
  498
  619
  757
  912
  1,085
  1,276
  1,484
  1,709
  1,952
  2,210
  2,485
  2,775
  3,081
  3,402
  3,738
  4,089
  4,455
  4,836
  5,233
  5,645
  6,073
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
Total debt, $m
  0
  22
  35
  53
  77
  110
  151
  204
  268
  346
  437
  543
  665
  802
  954
  1,122
  1,306
  1,505
  1,718
  1,946
  2,188
  2,444
  2,714
  2,997
  3,293
  3,602
  3,924
  4,260
  4,610
  4,973
  5,350
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  24
  36
  54
  79
  112
  153
  206
  270
  348
  439
  545
  667
  804
  956
  1,124
  1,308
  1,506
  1,720
  1,948
  2,190
  2,446
  2,716
  2,998
  3,294
  3,604
  3,926
  4,262
  4,611
  4,975
  5,352
Total equity, $m
  0
  23
  36
  54
  79
  111
  153
  205
  269
  346
  437
  543
  664
  800
  952
  1,120
  1,303
  1,500
  1,713
  1,940
  2,181
  2,436
  2,705
  2,986
  3,281
  3,589
  3,911
  4,245
  4,593
  4,955
  5,331
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  47
  72
  108
  158
  223
  306
  411
  539
  694
  876
  1,088
  1,331
  1,604
  1,908
  2,244
  2,611
  3,006
  3,433
  3,888
  4,371
  4,882
  5,421
  5,984
  6,575
  7,193
  7,837
  8,507
  9,204
  9,930
  10,683
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.920
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  -31
  -47
  -70
  -102
  -144
  -197
  -265
  -348
  -448
  -566
  -703
  -860
  -1,037
  -1,235
  -1,453
  -1,691
  -1,949
  -2,226
  -2,521
  -2,836
  -3,168
  -3,518
  -3,885
  -4,270
  -4,671
  -5,090
  -5,527
  -5,981
  -6,453
  -6,943
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  18
  24
  31
  40
  50
  62
  76
  91
  108
  128
  148
  171
  195
  221
  249
  278
  308
  340
  374
  409
  446
  484
  523
  564
  607
Funds from operations, $m
  0
  -27
  -42
  -64
  -92
  -130
  -179
  -241
  -317
  -408
  -516
  -641
  -785
  -946
  -1,127
  -1,325
  -1,542
  -1,778
  -2,030
  -2,300
  -2,587
  -2,890
  -3,210
  -3,545
  -3,896
  -4,263
  -4,645
  -5,043
  -5,457
  -5,888
  -6,336
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  -27
  -43
  -64
  -93
  -131
  -180
  -242
  -318
  -409
  -517
  -643
  -786
  -948
  -1,128
  -1,327
  -1,545
  -1,780
  -2,033
  -2,303
  -2,590
  -2,893
  -3,213
  -3,548
  -3,899
  -4,266
  -4,649
  -5,047
  -5,462
  -5,893
  -6,340
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -23
  -31
  -39
  -50
  -62
  -76
  -91
  -108
  -128
  -148
  -171
  -195
  -221
  -249
  -278
  -308
  -340
  -374
  -409
  -446
  -484
  -523
  -564
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -60
  -73
  -88
  -104
  -120
  -138
  -155
  -173
  -191
  -208
  -225
  -242
  -259
  -275
  -290
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -351
  -366
  -381
  -396
  -412
  -428
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -12
  -18
  -24
  -34
  -46
  -60
  -77
  -96
  -119
  -143
  -170
  -200
  -231
  -264
  -299
  -336
  -373
  -413
  -454
  -496
  -539
  -584
  -629
  -676
  -725
  -775
  -827
  -880
  -935
  -992
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  -40
  -60
  -88
  -127
  -177
  -240
  -319
  -414
  -528
  -660
  -813
  -986
  -1,179
  -1,393
  -1,627
  -1,880
  -2,154
  -2,446
  -2,757
  -3,086
  -3,432
  -3,796
  -4,177
  -4,576
  -4,991
  -5,424
  -5,874
  -6,342
  -6,828
  -7,333
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  9
  13
  18
  25
  32
  42
  52
  64
  77
  91
  106
  121
  137
  153
  168
  184
  199
  214
  228
  242
  256
  270
  283
  296
  309
  322
  336
  349
  363
  378
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  40
  60
  88
  126
  176
  239
  317
  412
  525
  658
  809
  981
  1,174
  1,387
  1,620
  1,874
  2,146
  2,438
  2,748
  3,077
  3,423
  3,786
  4,167
  4,565
  4,980
  5,412
  5,861
  6,329
  6,815
  7,319
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  49
  73
  106
  151
  208
  281
  369
  476
  602
  749
  915
  1,102
  1,311
  1,540
  1,788
  2,058
  2,345
  2,652
  2,976
  3,319
  3,679
  4,056
  4,450
  4,861
  5,289
  5,734
  6,197
  6,678
  7,178
  7,697
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  9
  13
  18
  24
  32
  41
  51
  63
  75
  89
  102
  117
  132
  147
  162
  177
  191
  206
  220
  233
  246
  259
  272
  285
  298
  310
  323
  336
  350
  364
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -40
  -60
  -88
  -126
  -176
  -239
  -317
  -412
  -525
  -658
  -809
  -981
  -1,174
  -1,387
  -1,620
  -1,874
  -2,146
  -2,438
  -2,748
  -3,077
  -3,423
  -3,786
  -4,167
  -4,565
  -4,980
  -5,412
  -5,861
  -6,329
  -6,815
  -7,319
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  5
  6
  9
  11
  15
  19
  23
  28
  34
  40
  48
  55
  64
  73
  82
  93
  104
  115
  127
  140
  153
  166
  180
  195
  211
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -31
  -47
  -70
  -102
  -144
  -198
  -266
  -350
  -450
  -569
  -707
  -864
  -1,042
  -1,240
  -1,459
  -1,697
  -1,955
  -2,233
  -2,529
  -2,844
  -3,176
  -3,527
  -3,895
  -4,280
  -4,682
  -5,101
  -5,538
  -5,992
  -6,465
  -6,956
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -29
  -41
  -57
  -76
  -97
  -121
  -146
  -170
  -193
  -212
  -226
  -235
  -238
  -234
  -225
  -211
  -192
  -171
  -148
  -125
  -102
  -82
  -63
  -48
  -35
  -25
  -17
  -12
  -7
  -5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.7
  27.2
  14.9
  8.3
  4.7
  2.7
  1.6
  1.0
  0.6
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Superior Drilling Products, Inc., a drilling and completion tool technology company, manufactures, repairs, sells, and rents drilling tools in the United States and internationally. It is involved in the design and manufacture of new drill bit and horizontal drill string enhancement tools for the oil, natural gas, and mining services industries; and the refurbishment of polycrystalline diamond compact drill bits. The company’s horizontal drilling tools include Drill N Ream, a well bore conditioning tool; Strider, a drill string oscillation system; V-Stream, an advanced conditioning system; and Dedicated Reamer Stinger that is used to enhance dedicated reamer operations. It serves companies operating in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. The company was formerly known as SD Company, Inc. and changed its name to Superior Drilling Products, Inc. in May 2014. Superior Drilling Products, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Vernal, Utah.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Superior Drilling Products (SDPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SDPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SDPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $16 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Superior Drilling Products. The default revenue input number comes from income statement of Superior Drilling Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SDPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for SDPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Superior Drilling Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Superior Drilling Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SDPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 218%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SDPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.1% for Superior Drilling Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Superior Drilling Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SDPI stock is equal to 3.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SDPI are equal to 104.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Superior Drilling Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SDPI is equal to 1.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $14 million for Superior Drilling Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24 million for Superior Drilling Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Superior Drilling Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Superior Drilling Products, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-08-18 09:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ EnerCom Dallas Announces 2018 Conference Presenters   [Jan-18-18 05:44PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Top Performing Energy Stocks of September   [Oct-04-17 04:14PM  Zacks]
▶ Baker Hughes' U.S. Rig Count Jumps for Second Week in a Row   [Jun-10-16 01:21PM  TheStreet.com]
Financial statements of SDPI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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