Intrinsic value of SandRidge Mississippian Trust - SDT

Previous Close

$0.94

  Intrinsic Value

$4.72

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+402%

Previous close

$0.94

 
Intrinsic value

$4.72

 
Up/down potential

+402%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SDT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -52.63
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Total operating expenses, $m
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Operating income, $m
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
EBITDA, $m
  15
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
Tax expense, $m
  0
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Net income, $m
  15
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  33
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.581
  0.563
  0.594
  0.576
  0.588
  0.571
  0.583
  0.595
  0.590
  0.575
  0.571
  0.581
  0.578
  0.574
  0.592
  0.588
  0.585
  0.571
  0.586
  0.574
  0.578
  0.582
  0.586
  0.589
  0.584
  0.588
  0.583
  0.580
  0.587
  0.577
  0.578
Average production assets, $m
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  76
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
Working capital, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  33
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  33
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Funds from operations, $m
  -32
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -32
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Free cash flow, $m
  -32
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -32
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  47
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  12
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  12
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

SandRidge Mississippian Trust I is a statutory trust formed by and among SandRidge Energy, Inc. (SandRidge), The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A., and The Corporation Trust Company. Sandridge offers various services to the Company, such as the operation of its development wells; remittance of net proceeds from the sale of associated production to the Company; administrative services, such as accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and informational services performed on behalf of the Company, and derivative agreement services related to production. The Company holds Royalty Interests in specified oil and natural gas properties located in the Mississippian formation in Alfalfa, Garfield, Grant and Woods counties in Oklahoma. The Mississippian formation is a carbonate hydrocarbon system located on the Anadarko Shelf. The top of the formation lies stratigraphically between the Pennsylvanian-aged Morrow formation and the Devonian-aged Woodford Shale formation.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SandRidge Mississippian Trust (SDT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 1.8
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -52.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 26.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Return On Total Capital 26.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Return On Equity 26.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 94.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.5%
EBITDA Margin 83.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.3%
Operating Margin 83.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 83.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.3%
Net Profit Margin 83.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 100%

SDT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SDT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $18 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SandRidge Mississippian Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SandRidge Mississippian Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SDT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SDT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SandRidge Mississippian Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SandRidge Mississippian Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SDT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 0%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SDT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for SandRidge Mississippian Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SandRidge Mississippian Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SDT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SDT are equal to 302.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SandRidge Mississippian Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SDT is equal to -11.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $33 million for SandRidge Mississippian Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28 million for SandRidge Mississippian Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SandRidge Mississippian Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
SDR SandRidge Miss 0.910 0.92  sell
MVO MV Oil Trust 7.47 32.41  str.buy
CRT Cross Timbers 14.30 318.82  str.buy
BSM Black Stone Mi 17.71 0.93  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Best Cheap Stock in November   [Nov-25-17 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Best-In-Class Undervalued Stocks   [Nov-15-17 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ When Should You Buy SandRidge Mississippian Trust I (SDT)?   [Oct-12-17 12:14PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ When Should You Buy Sandridge Mississippian Trust II (SDR)?   [Sep-28-17 02:45PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ SandRidge Mississippian Trust I posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 04:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ SandRidge Mississippian Trust posts 2Q profit   [03:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Sandridge Mississippian Trust I Earnings Q2, 2015   [Sep-16  12:27PM  Capital Cube]
Financial statements of SDT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

VALUATION THEORY       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2017. All rigths reserved.