Intrinsic value of SolarEdge Technologies - SEDG

Previous Close

$53.65

  Intrinsic Value

$66.62

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+24%

Previous close

$53.65

 
Intrinsic value

$66.62

 
Up/down potential

+24%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SEDG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -51.02
  23.90
  22.01
  20.31
  18.78
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.14
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
Revenue, $m
  240
  752
  918
  1,104
  1,311
  1,539
  1,788
  2,057
  2,346
  2,654
  2,981
  3,327
  3,690
  4,072
  4,471
  4,888
  5,323
  5,775
  6,246
  6,736
  7,244
  7,773
  8,322
  8,893
  9,487
  10,104
  10,747
  11,415
  12,112
  12,837
  13,593
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  628
  766
  922
  1,095
  1,285
  1,493
  1,718
  1,959
  2,216
  2,489
  2,778
  3,082
  3,400
  3,733
  4,082
  4,444
  4,822
  5,215
  5,624
  6,049
  6,490
  6,949
  7,426
  7,922
  8,437
  8,974
  9,532
  10,113
  10,719
  11,350
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
Total operating expenses, $m
  207
  637
  775
  932
  1,105
  1,295
  1,503
  1,728
  1,970
  2,227
  2,500
  2,789
  3,094
  3,412
  3,745
  4,094
  4,457
  4,835
  5,228
  5,638
  6,063
  6,504
  6,964
  7,441
  7,937
  8,453
  8,990
  9,548
  10,130
  10,736
  11,367
Operating income, $m
  33
  115
  142
  173
  207
  244
  285
  329
  376
  427
  481
  537
  597
  660
  726
  794
  866
  940
  1,017
  1,098
  1,181
  1,268
  1,359
  1,453
  1,550
  1,652
  1,757
  1,867
  1,982
  2,101
  2,226
EBITDA, $m
  36
  120
  148
  180
  215
  254
  297
  343
  392
  445
  501
  560
  622
  687
  756
  827
  901
  979
  1,059
  1,143
  1,230
  1,320
  1,414
  1,512
  1,614
  1,719
  1,829
  1,944
  2,063
  2,187
  2,317
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  3
  7
  11
  15
  20
  26
  31
  38
  44
  52
  59
  67
  75
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  167
  180
  193
  206
  220
  235
  250
  265
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  115
  139
  166
  196
  229
  265
  303
  345
  389
  436
  486
  538
  593
  650
  710
  773
  838
  905
  975
  1,048
  1,124
  1,203
  1,285
  1,370
  1,459
  1,551
  1,647
  1,747
  1,851
  1,960
Tax expense, $m
  6
  31
  37
  45
  53
  62
  71
  82
  93
  105
  118
  131
  145
  160
  176
  192
  209
  226
  244
  263
  283
  304
  325
  347
  370
  394
  419
  445
  472
  500
  529
Net income, $m
  25
  84
  101
  121
  143
  167
  193
  221
  252
  284
  319
  355
  393
  433
  475
  518
  564
  611
  661
  712
  765
  821
  878
  938
  1,000
  1,065
  1,132
  1,203
  1,276
  1,352
  1,431

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  179
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  425
  656
  800
  962
  1,143
  1,342
  1,559
  1,794
  2,045
  2,314
  2,599
  2,900
  3,218
  3,550
  3,898
  4,262
  4,641
  5,035
  5,446
  5,872
  6,316
  6,777
  7,256
  7,754
  8,271
  8,809
  9,369
  9,952
  10,559
  11,192
  11,851
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  246
  656
  800
  962
  1,143
  1,342
  1,559
  1,794
  2,045
  2,314
  2,599
  2,900
  3,218
  3,550
  3,898
  4,262
  4,641
  5,035
  5,446
  5,872
  6,316
  6,777
  7,256
  7,754
  8,271
  8,809
  9,369
  9,952
  10,559
  11,192
  11,851
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.976
  1.146
  1.148
  1.148
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
  1.147
Average production assets, $m
  33
  50
  61
  74
  88
  103
  120
  138
  157
  178
  200
  223
  247
  273
  300
  328
  357
  387
  418
  451
  485
  521
  558
  596
  636
  677
  720
  765
  811
  860
  911
Working capital, $m
  270
  17
  20
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  52
  58
  66
  73
  81
  90
  98
  108
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  183
  196
  209
  222
  236
  251
  266
  282
  299
Total debt, $m
  2
  58
  124
  199
  283
  374
  474
  583
  699
  822
  954
  1,093
  1,239
  1,392
  1,553
  1,720
  1,895
  2,077
  2,266
  2,463
  2,667
  2,880
  3,101
  3,330
  3,569
  3,817
  4,075
  4,344
  4,624
  4,915
  5,219
Total liabilities, $m
  136
  302
  369
  444
  527
  619
  719
  827
  943
  1,067
  1,198
  1,337
  1,483
  1,637
  1,797
  1,965
  2,139
  2,321
  2,510
  2,707
  2,912
  3,124
  3,345
  3,574
  3,813
  4,061
  4,319
  4,588
  4,868
  5,159
  5,463
Total equity, $m
  289
  353
  431
  519
  616
  723
  840
  967
  1,102
  1,247
  1,401
  1,563
  1,734
  1,914
  2,101
  2,297
  2,501
  2,714
  2,935
  3,165
  3,404
  3,653
  3,911
  4,179
  4,458
  4,748
  5,050
  5,364
  5,691
  6,032
  6,388
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  425
  655
  800
  963
  1,143
  1,342
  1,559
  1,794
  2,045
  2,314
  2,599
  2,900
  3,217
  3,551
  3,898
  4,262
  4,640
  5,035
  5,445
  5,872
  6,316
  6,777
  7,256
  7,753
  8,271
  8,809
  9,369
  9,952
  10,559
  11,191
  11,851
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.007
  0.160
  0.290
  0.380
  0.460
  0.520
  0.560
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.447
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  84
  101
  121
  143
  167
  193
  221
  252
  284
  319
  355
  393
  433
  475
  518
  564
  611
  661
  712
  765
  821
  878
  938
  1,000
  1,065
  1,132
  1,203
  1,276
  1,352
  1,431
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
Funds from operations, $m
  59
  89
  108
  128
  152
  177
  205
  235
  268
  302
  338
  377
  418
  460
  505
  551
  600
  650
  703
  757
  814
  873
  934
  998
  1,064
  1,133
  1,204
  1,279
  1,357
  1,438
  1,522
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  49
  86
  104
  124
  147
  172
  200
  229
  261
  295
  331
  369
  410
  452
  496
  542
  590
  640
  692
  746
  803
  861
  922
  985
  1,051
  1,119
  1,190
  1,264
  1,341
  1,422
  1,505
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
Free cash flow, $m
  29
  72
  88
  106
  126
  148
  173
  199
  228
  259
  292
  326
  363
  402
  442
  484
  528
  574
  622
  672
  723
  777
  833
  891
  952
  1,014
  1,080
  1,147
  1,218
  1,292
  1,369
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  58
  67
  75
  83
  92
  100
  108
  116
  124
  131
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  204
  212
  221
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  58
  67
  75
  83
  92
  100
  108
  116
  124
  131
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  204
  212
  221
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  31
  130
  154
  181
  209
  240
  273
  307
  344
  383
  423
  465
  509
  555
  602
  652
  703
  756
  811
  868
  928
  990
  1,054
  1,121
  1,190
  1,262
  1,338
  1,416
  1,498
  1,583
  1,673
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -33
  -69
  -78
  -88
  -97
  -107
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -290
  -302
  -314
  -327
  -341
  -355
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  112
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  18
  22
  27
  32
  38
  45
  52
  60
  68
  77
  86
  96
  107
  118
  130
  142
  154
  167
  181
  195
  210
  225
  241
  258
  275
  293
  312
  331
  351
  372
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  173
  76
  93
  112
  133
  156
  181
  208
  238
  269
  303
  338
  376
  415
  456
  499
  543
  590
  638
  689
  741
  796
  852
  911
  972
  1,036
  1,102
  1,171
  1,243
  1,317
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  166
  70
  81
  92
  103
  113
  122
  130
  137
  141
  144
  144
  143
  139
  134
  127
  118
  109
  98
  88
  77
  66
  56
  46
  38
  30
  24
  18
  14
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. offers an inverter solution for a solar photovoltaic (PV) system. The Company's products include SolarEdge Power Optimizer, SolarEdge Inverter, StorEdge Solutions and SolarEdge Monitoring Software. Its product roadmap consists of categories, including power optimizers, inverters, monitoring services, energy storage and smart energy management. The Company's power optimizers provide module-level maximum power point (MPP) tracking and real-time adjustments of current and voltage to the optimal working point of each individual PV module. The Company's solution consists of a direct current (DC) power optimizer, an inverter and a cloud-based monitoring platform that operates as a single integrated system.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 88.5
Price to Sales 9.2
Price to Book 7.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 45.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 59.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -51%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.7%
Total Debt to Equity 0.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Total Capital 9.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Return On Equity 9.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
EBITDA Margin 14.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Operating Margin 13.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Net Profit Margin 10.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Effective Tax Rate 19.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Payout Ratio 0%

SEDG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SEDG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $607 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SolarEdge Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SolarEdge Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SEDG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SEDG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SolarEdge Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SolarEdge Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SEDG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $9 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SEDG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for SolarEdge Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SolarEdge Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SEDG stock is equal to 2.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SEDG are equal to 6.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SolarEdge Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SEDG is equal to 2.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $397 million for SolarEdge Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42 million for SolarEdge Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SolarEdge Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ SolarEdge: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 06:17PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Alternative Energy Stock Outlook - April 2018   [Apr-12-18 03:13PM  Zacks]
▶ SolarEdge Wins Edison Award   [09:00AM  Business Wire]
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▶ Four Solar Stocks to Buy Now   [Mar-24-18 11:37PM  Insider Monkey]
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▶ First Solar Quarterly Earnings Report Arriving At Disruptive Time   [Feb-20-18 04:36PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ SolarEdge Soars On Earnings Beat As SunPower Results Smack Stock   [Feb-15-18 04:43PM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of SEDG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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