Intrinsic value of SolarEdge Technologies - SEDG

Previous Close

$26.05

  Intrinsic Value

$11.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-56%

  Value-price divergence*

-75%

Previous close

$26.05

 
Intrinsic value

$11.42

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-75%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SEDG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -51.02
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  240
  245
  250
  257
  264
  272
  281
  290
  301
  312
  324
  337
  350
  365
  380
  397
  414
  433
  452
  473
  494
  517
  541
  567
  594
  622
  652
  683
  716
  751
  787
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  207
  212
  217
  223
  230
  238
  246
  254
  264
  274
  285
  296
  309
  322
  336
  350
  366
  382
  400
  418
  438
  458
  480
  502
  526
  551
  578
  606
  635
  666
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
Total operating expenses, $m
  207
  211
  216
  221
  227
  235
  243
  251
  259
  269
  279
  290
  301
  315
  328
  342
  356
  372
  388
  406
  425
  445
  465
  487
  509
  533
  559
  586
  614
  643
  674
Operating income, $m
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
EBITDA, $m
  36
  37
  38
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
Tax expense, $m
  6
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Net income, $m
  25
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  179
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  425
  251
  257
  263
  271
  279
  288
  298
  308
  320
  332
  345
  359
  374
  390
  407
  424
  443
  463
  484
  507
  530
  555
  581
  608
  637
  668
  700
  734
  769
  807
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  246
  251
  257
  263
  271
  279
  288
  298
  308
  320
  332
  345
  359
  374
  390
  407
  424
  443
  463
  484
  507
  530
  555
  581
  608
  637
  668
  700
  734
  769
  807
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.976
  0.976
  0.973
  0.977
  0.974
  0.975
  0.976
  0.973
  0.977
  0.975
  0.976
  0.977
  0.975
  0.976
  0.974
  0.975
  0.976
  0.977
  0.976
  0.977
  0.974
  0.975
  0.975
  0.976
  0.977
  0.976
  0.976
  0.976
  0.975
  0.977
  0.975
Average production assets, $m
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
Working capital, $m
  270
  93
  95
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  285
  298
Total debt, $m
  2
  5
  8
  12
  16
  20
  25
  31
  36
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  82
  91
  101
  111
  122
  134
  146
  159
  173
  187
  202
  218
  235
  253
  272
  291
  312
Total liabilities, $m
  136
  139
  142
  146
  150
  154
  159
  165
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
  425
  446
Total equity, $m
  289
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
  344
  361
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  425
  251
  257
  264
  271
  279
  288
  298
  308
  320
  332
  345
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  443
  463
  484
  506
  530
  555
  581
  608
  637
  668
  700
  734
  769
  807
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.007
  0.040
  0.070
  0.100
  0.130
  0.160
  0.200
  0.230
  0.260
  0.300
  0.330
  0.370
  0.400
  0.440
  0.470
  0.500
  0.530
  0.560
  0.590
  0.620
  0.650
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  59
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  49
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -14
Free cash flow, $m
  29
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  31
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -33
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  179
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  202
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  193
  21
  20
  19
  18
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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SolarEdge Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and sells direct current (DC) optimized inverter systems for solar photovoltaic (PV) installations in Israel, Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company’s DC optimized inverter systems include power optimizers, inverters, and cloud-based monitoring software. Its products are used in a range of solar market segments, including residential, commercial, and small utility-scale solar installations. The company sells its products directly to solar installers, as well as engineering, procurement, and construction firms; and indirectly to solar installers through distributors and electrical equipment wholesalers, as well as PV module manufacturers. SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Herziliya Pituach, Israel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 43
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 29
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -51%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.7%
Total Debt to Equity 0.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Total Capital 9.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Return On Equity 9.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
EBITDA Margin 14.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Operating Margin 13.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Net Profit Margin 10.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Effective Tax Rate 19.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Payout Ratio 0%

SEDG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SEDG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $240 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SolarEdge Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SolarEdge Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SEDG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SEDG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SolarEdge Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SolarEdge Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SEDG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SEDG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for SolarEdge Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SolarEdge Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SEDG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SEDG are equal to 13.8%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SolarEdge Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SEDG is equal to 37.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $289 million for SolarEdge Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.303 million for SolarEdge Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SolarEdge Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ SolarEdge (SEDG) and Teva (TEVA) are Blowouts!   [Aug-10-17 05:43PM  Zacks]
▶ Why SolarEdge Technologies Inc's Shares Popped 22% Today   [Aug-03-17 01:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ SolarEdge Crushed Q2 Earnings   [10:55AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ SolarEdge tops Street 2Q forecasts   [12:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ SolarEdge Announces Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-02-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Solar Stocks for Heading Into the Third Quarter   [Aug-01-17 06:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why These 2 Analysts Like SolarEdge Technologies   [Jul-18-17 12:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Last Week in Solar   [Jul-17-17 10:37AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Canadian Solar Clears Key Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Jul-13-17 10:50AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Cleantech jumps 24% percent this year   [Jun-19-17 09:45AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Should You Get Rid of JA Solar (JASO) Now?   [Jun-08-17 08:38AM  Zacks]
▶ Will The Sun Keep Shining On This No. 1-Ranked Solar Stock?   [May-26-17 11:29AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for May 16th   [May-16-17 10:43AM  Zacks]
▶ SolarEdge tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-09-17 05:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Final Trade: MOS, SEDG & more   [Apr-21-17 05:26PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Solar Shake-Up: Why More Bankruptcies Are Coming in 2017   [Apr-18-17 08:08AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Veteran trader shares 11 market truths for stock investors   [Apr-12-17 10:25AM  Yahoo Finance]
▶ Why day trading is NOT for most people   [08:13AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ [$$] Israel Secondary Fund Closes $100M Fund II   [Apr-03-17 04:10PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ A Bargain Stock in the Solar Wasteland   [Mar-27-17 02:09PM  WSJ Live]
▶ The Top Stories From This Week's Barron's   [12:01AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Baron Funds Comments on SolarEdge Technologies   [Mar-16-17 03:57PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 3 Solar Stocks You May Be Overlooking   [Feb-17-17 10:11AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Sunny Skies? 4 Solar Stocks with Similar Charts   [Feb-15-17 01:25PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Is Solaredge Technologies Inc (SEDG) a Good Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:06PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ What Hedge Funds Think About These 5 Solar Stocks   [Dec-03-16 09:09AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of SEDG Financial statements of SEDG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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