Intrinsic value of Select Medical Holdings - SEM

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$13.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$13.65

 
Intrinsic value

$25.57

 
Up/down potential

+87%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.51
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,286
  4,372
  4,472
  4,587
  4,716
  4,859
  5,016
  5,187
  5,372
  5,571
  5,785
  6,014
  6,258
  6,518
  6,794
  7,087
  7,397
  7,726
  8,074
  8,441
  8,829
  9,238
  9,670
  10,125
  10,604
  11,109
  11,640
  12,200
  12,788
  13,408
  14,059
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,047
  4,134
  4,233
  4,344
  4,468
  4,603
  4,750
  4,910
  5,082
  5,266
  5,189
  5,399
  5,623
  5,862
  6,115
  6,383
  6,666
  6,966
  7,283
  7,618
  7,971
  8,343
  8,736
  9,149
  9,585
  10,043
  10,526
  11,034
  11,568
  12,131
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,998
  4,047
  4,134
  4,233
  4,344
  4,468
  4,603
  4,750
  4,910
  5,082
  5,266
  5,189
  5,399
  5,623
  5,862
  6,115
  6,383
  6,666
  6,966
  7,283
  7,618
  7,971
  8,343
  8,736
  9,149
  9,585
  10,043
  10,526
  11,034
  11,568
  12,131
Operating income, $m
  288
  325
  338
  354
  372
  392
  413
  436
  462
  489
  519
  825
  858
  894
  932
  972
  1,015
  1,060
  1,108
  1,158
  1,211
  1,267
  1,327
  1,389
  1,455
  1,524
  1,597
  1,674
  1,754
  1,839
  1,929
EBITDA, $m
  433
  634
  649
  666
  684
  705
  728
  753
  780
  808
  840
  873
  908
  946
  986
  1,028
  1,074
  1,121
  1,172
  1,225
  1,281
  1,341
  1,403
  1,469
  1,539
  1,612
  1,689
  1,770
  1,856
  1,946
  2,040
Interest expense (income), $m
  143
  150
  155
  160
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  269
  284
  299
  316
  333
  352
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  486
  513
  542
  571
  603
  636
Earnings before tax, $m
  181
  174
  184
  194
  206
  218
  232
  247
  264
  281
  300
  595
  616
  639
  663
  689
  716
  744
  774
  806
  840
  875
  913
  952
  994
  1,038
  1,084
  1,132
  1,183
  1,237
  1,293
Tax expense, $m
  56
  47
  50
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  161
  166
  173
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  218
  227
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  319
  334
  349
Net income, $m
  115
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  170
  181
  192
  205
  219
  434
  450
  466
  484
  503
  522
  543
  565
  589
  613
  639
  666
  695
  725
  757
  791
  826
  864
  903
  944

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  99
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,944
  4,940
  5,053
  5,183
  5,329
  5,491
  5,668
  5,861
  6,070
  6,295
  6,537
  6,795
  7,071
  7,364
  7,677
  8,008
  8,359
  8,730
  9,123
  9,538
  9,976
  10,439
  10,926
  11,440
  11,982
  12,552
  13,153
  13,785
  14,450
  15,150
  15,886
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,845
  4,940
  5,053
  5,183
  5,329
  5,491
  5,668
  5,861
  6,070
  6,295
  6,537
  6,795
  7,071
  7,364
  7,677
  8,008
  8,359
  8,730
  9,123
  9,538
  9,976
  10,439
  10,926
  11,440
  11,982
  12,552
  13,153
  13,785
  14,450
  15,150
  15,886
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
  0.885
Average production assets, $m
  776
  791
  809
  830
  854
  880
  908
  939
  972
  1,008
  1,047
  1,088
  1,133
  1,180
  1,230
  1,283
  1,339
  1,398
  1,461
  1,528
  1,598
  1,672
  1,750
  1,833
  1,919
  2,011
  2,107
  2,208
  2,315
  2,427
  2,545
Working capital, $m
  236
  192
  197
  202
  208
  214
  221
  228
  236
  245
  255
  265
  275
  287
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  467
  489
  512
  537
  563
  590
  619
Total debt, $m
  2,738
  2,764
  2,860
  2,969
  3,092
  3,228
  3,377
  3,539
  3,715
  3,904
  4,107
  4,325
  4,557
  4,804
  5,066
  5,344
  5,640
  5,952
  6,282
  6,631
  7,000
  7,389
  7,799
  8,231
  8,687
  9,167
  9,672
  10,203
  10,763
  11,351
  11,970
Total liabilities, $m
  4,129
  4,154
  4,250
  4,359
  4,482
  4,618
  4,767
  4,929
  5,105
  5,294
  5,497
  5,715
  5,947
  6,194
  6,456
  6,734
  7,030
  7,342
  7,672
  8,021
  8,390
  8,779
  9,189
  9,621
  10,077
  10,557
  11,062
  11,593
  12,153
  12,741
  13,360
Total equity, $m
  816
  785
  803
  824
  847
  873
  901
  932
  965
  1,001
  1,039
  1,080
  1,124
  1,171
  1,221
  1,273
  1,329
  1,388
  1,451
  1,517
  1,586
  1,660
  1,737
  1,819
  1,905
  1,996
  2,091
  2,192
  2,298
  2,409
  2,526
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,945
  4,939
  5,053
  5,183
  5,329
  5,491
  5,668
  5,861
  6,070
  6,295
  6,536
  6,795
  7,071
  7,365
  7,677
  8,007
  8,359
  8,730
  9,123
  9,538
  9,976
  10,439
  10,926
  11,440
  11,982
  12,553
  13,153
  13,785
  14,451
  15,150
  15,886
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.355
  3.520
  3.560
  3.600
  3.650
  3.700
  3.750
  3.800
  3.850
  3.900
  3.950
  4.000
  4.050
  4.100
  4.150
  4.200
  4.240
  4.290
  4.330
  4.370
  4.410
  4.450
  4.490
  4.530
  4.560
  4.590
  4.620
  4.660
  4.680
  4.710
  4.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.156
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  115
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  170
  181
  192
  205
  219
  434
  450
  466
  484
  503
  522
  543
  565
  589
  613
  639
  666
  695
  725
  757
  791
  826
  864
  903
  944
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  145
  310
  311
  312
  313
  314
  315
  316
  318
  319
  321
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  106
  112
Funds from operations, $m
  365
  437
  445
  453
  463
  473
  484
  497
  510
  525
  540
  482
  500
  518
  538
  559
  581
  605
  629
  656
  683
  712
  743
  775
  810
  846
  883
  923
  965
  1,009
  1,056
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  347
  890
  440
  448
  457
  467
  478
  489
  502
  516
  531
  472
  489
  507
  526
  546
  567
  590
  614
  639
  666
  694
  724
  755
  789
  823
  860
  899
  939
  982
  1,027
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
New CAPEX, $m
  -162
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -554
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -204
  -214
  -224
Free cash flow, $m
  -207
  841
  387
  392
  397
  403
  411
  419
  427
  437
  448
  385
  397
  410
  424
  439
  455
  472
  490
  509
  529
  550
  573
  596
  621
  648
  676
  705
  736
  768
  803
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  294
  79
  96
  109
  123
  136
  149
  162
  176
  189
  203
  217
  232
  247
  262
  278
  295
  312
  330
  349
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  480
  505
  532
  559
  589
  619
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  292
  79
  96
  109
  123
  136
  149
  162
  176
  189
  203
  217
  232
  247
  262
  278
  295
  312
  330
  349
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  480
  505
  532
  559
  589
  619
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  85
  920
  483
  501
  520
  539
  560
  581
  603
  626
  651
  602
  629
  657
  686
  717
  750
  784
  820
  858
  897
  939
  983
  1,029
  1,077
  1,128
  1,181
  1,237
  1,295
  1,357
  1,422
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  43
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  951
  465
  480
  497
  514
  532
  550
  570
  591
  612
  561
  585
  610
  637
  665
  694
  725
  758
  792
  828
  866
  905
  947
  991
  1,037
  1,085
  1,136
  1,189
  1,246
  1,305
Discount rate, %
 
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.49
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.40
  17.22
  18.08
  18.98
  19.93
  20.93
  21.98
  23.08
  24.23
  25.44
  26.71
  28.05
  29.45
  30.92
  32.47
  34.09
  35.80
  37.59
  39.47
  41.44
  43.51
  45.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  856
  373
  340
  306
  273
  240
  208
  178
  151
  125
  90
  73
  57
  45
  34
  25
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Select Medical Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiary, Select Medical Corporation, operates specialty hospitals, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and occupational medicine centers in the United States. The company’s Specialty Hospitals segment operates long term acute care hospitals (LTCHs) and inpatient acute rehabilitative hospitals. This segment offers various medical services for the treatment of respiratory failure, neuromuscular disorders, traumatic brain and spinal cord injuries, strokes, non-healing wounds, cardiac disorders, renal disorders, and cancer. As of December 31, 2016, this segment operated 123 specialty hospitals, including 103 LTCHs and 20 inpatient rehabilitation facilities in 27 states. Its Outpatient Rehabilitation segment operates clinics that provide physical, occupational, and speech rehabilitation services. This segment also offers specialized programs, such as functional programs for work related injuries, hand therapy, post-concussion rehabilitation, and athletic training services; and services that are designed to prevent short term disabilities from becoming chronic conditions. This segment operated 1,611 outpatient rehabilitation clinics in 37 states and the District of Columbia. The company’s Concentra segment operates and provides medical centers and contract services at employer worksites and Department of Veterans Affairs community-based outpatient clinics (CBOCs) that deliver occupational medicine, consumer health, physical therapy, and veteran's healthcare services. This segment operated 300 medical centers, 107 onsite clinics at employer worksites, and 32 Department of Veterans Affairs CBOCs in 43 states. Select Medical Holdings Corporation was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Select Medical Holdings (SEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.7
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -11.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 329%
Total Debt to Equity 335.5%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 3.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 13.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

SEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4286 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Select Medical Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Select Medical Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.1%, whose default value for SEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Select Medical Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Select Medical Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Select Medical Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Select Medical Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SEM are equal to 18.1%.

Life of production assets of 22.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Select Medical Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SEM is equal to 4.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $816 million for Select Medical Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 134.082 million for Select Medical Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Select Medical Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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