Intrinsic value of Select Medical Holdings - SEM

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$13.80

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$13.80

 
Intrinsic value

$23.96

 
Up/down potential

+74%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.51
  2.10
  2.39
  2.65
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,286
  4,376
  4,481
  4,599
  4,732
  4,879
  5,039
  5,213
  5,402
  5,604
  5,822
  6,054
  6,301
  6,565
  6,845
  7,142
  7,456
  7,789
  8,141
  8,512
  8,904
  9,318
  9,755
  10,214
  10,699
  11,209
  11,746
  12,311
  12,906
  13,532
  14,190
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,051
  4,141
  4,244
  4,358
  4,484
  4,623
  4,773
  4,936
  5,111
  5,298
  5,223
  5,437
  5,664
  5,906
  6,162
  6,433
  6,720
  7,024
  7,344
  7,683
  8,040
  8,416
  8,813
  9,231
  9,671
  10,135
  10,623
  11,136
  11,676
  12,243
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,998
  4,051
  4,141
  4,244
  4,358
  4,484
  4,623
  4,773
  4,936
  5,111
  5,298
  5,223
  5,437
  5,664
  5,906
  6,162
  6,433
  6,720
  7,024
  7,344
  7,683
  8,040
  8,416
  8,813
  9,231
  9,671
  10,135
  10,623
  11,136
  11,676
  12,243
Operating income, $m
  288
  325
  340
  356
  374
  394
  416
  440
  466
  494
  524
  830
  864
  901
  939
  980
  1,023
  1,069
  1,117
  1,168
  1,222
  1,278
  1,338
  1,401
  1,468
  1,538
  1,611
  1,689
  1,771
  1,856
  1,947
EBITDA, $m
  433
  617
  632
  649
  668
  688
  711
  736
  762
  791
  821
  854
  889
  926
  966
  1,008
  1,052
  1,099
  1,149
  1,201
  1,256
  1,315
  1,376
  1,441
  1,510
  1,582
  1,657
  1,737
  1,821
  1,909
  2,002
Interest expense (income), $m
  143
  150
  155
  161
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  209
  220
  231
  244
  257
  271
  286
  301
  318
  336
  354
  374
  395
  417
  440
  464
  490
  517
  545
  575
  606
  639
Earnings before tax, $m
  181
  175
  185
  195
  207
  220
  235
  250
  267
  284
  304
  599
  621
  644
  668
  694
  722
  751
  781
  814
  848
  884
  922
  962
  1,004
  1,048
  1,095
  1,144
  1,196
  1,250
  1,307
Tax expense, $m
  56
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  162
  168
  174
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  353
Net income, $m
  115
  128
  135
  143
  151
  161
  171
  183
  195
  208
  222
  437
  453
  470
  488
  507
  527
  548
  570
  594
  619
  645
  673
  702
  733
  765
  799
  835
  873
  913
  954

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  99
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,921
  4,922
  5,040
  5,174
  5,323
  5,488
  5,668
  5,864
  6,076
  6,304
  6,549
  6,810
  7,088
  7,385
  7,699
  8,033
  8,387
  8,761
  9,157
  9,575
  10,016
  10,482
  10,972
  11,490
  12,035
  12,609
  13,213
  13,849
  14,518
  15,222
  15,962
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,822
  4,922
  5,040
  5,174
  5,323
  5,488
  5,668
  5,864
  6,076
  6,304
  6,549
  6,810
  7,088
  7,385
  7,699
  8,033
  8,387
  8,761
  9,157
  9,575
  10,016
  10,482
  10,972
  11,490
  12,035
  12,609
  13,213
  13,849
  14,518
  15,222
  15,962
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
Average production assets, $m
  330
  337
  345
  354
  364
  376
  388
  401
  416
  432
  448
  466
  485
  505
  527
  550
  574
  600
  627
  655
  686
  718
  751
  787
  824
  863
  904
  948
  994
  1,042
  1,093
Working capital, $m
  191
  149
  152
  156
  161
  166
  171
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  289
  303
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  399
  419
  439
  460
  482
Total debt, $m
  2,738
  2,768
  2,867
  2,979
  3,104
  3,243
  3,394
  3,559
  3,737
  3,928
  4,134
  4,353
  4,587
  4,836
  5,100
  5,381
  5,678
  5,992
  6,325
  6,676
  7,047
  7,438
  7,850
  8,284
  8,742
  9,224
  9,732
  10,266
  10,828
  11,419
  12,041
Total liabilities, $m
  4,105
  4,135
  4,234
  4,346
  4,471
  4,610
  4,761
  4,926
  5,104
  5,295
  5,501
  5,720
  5,954
  6,203
  6,467
  6,748
  7,045
  7,359
  7,692
  8,043
  8,414
  8,805
  9,217
  9,651
  10,109
  10,591
  11,099
  11,633
  12,195
  12,786
  13,408
Total equity, $m
  816
  788
  806
  828
  852
  878
  907
  938
  972
  1,009
  1,048
  1,090
  1,134
  1,182
  1,232
  1,285
  1,342
  1,402
  1,465
  1,532
  1,603
  1,677
  1,756
  1,838
  1,926
  2,017
  2,114
  2,216
  2,323
  2,435
  2,554
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,921
  4,923
  5,040
  5,174
  5,323
  5,488
  5,668
  5,864
  6,076
  6,304
  6,549
  6,810
  7,088
  7,385
  7,699
  8,033
  8,387
  8,761
  9,157
  9,575
  10,017
  10,482
  10,973
  11,489
  12,035
  12,608
  13,213
  13,849
  14,518
  15,221
  15,962
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.355
  3.510
  3.550
  3.600
  3.640
  3.690
  3.740
  3.790
  3.840
  3.890
  3.950
  4.000
  4.040
  4.090
  4.140
  4.190
  4.230
  4.270
  4.320
  4.360
  4.400
  4.430
  4.470
  4.510
  4.540
  4.570
  4.600
  4.630
  4.660
  4.690
  4.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.157
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  115
  128
  135
  143
  151
  161
  171
  183
  195
  208
  222
  437
  453
  470
  488
  507
  527
  548
  570
  594
  619
  645
  673
  702
  733
  765
  799
  835
  873
  913
  954
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  145
  292
  293
  293
  294
  294
  295
  295
  296
  297
  298
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
Funds from operations, $m
  365
  420
  427
  436
  445
  455
  466
  478
  491
  505
  519
  461
  478
  496
  515
  535
  556
  578
  602
  627
  654
  682
  711
  742
  775
  809
  845
  883
  923
  965
  1,010
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  347
  428
  424
  432
  440
  450
  461
  472
  484
  498
  512
  453
  469
  487
  505
  525
  545
  567
  590
  615
  640
  667
  696
  726
  758
  792
  827
  864
  903
  944
  987
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
New CAPEX, $m
  -162
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -554
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -104
Free cash flow, $m
  -207
  404
  399
  405
  412
  420
  429
  439
  450
  461
  473
  412
  427
  442
  458
  475
  493
  512
  533
  554
  577
  601
  626
  653
  681
  711
  742
  775
  809
  846
  884
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  294
  83
  99
  112
  125
  138
  152
  165
  178
  191
  205
  219
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
  314
  332
  351
  371
  391
  412
  435
  458
  482
  508
  534
  562
  591
  622
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  292
  83
  99
  112
  125
  138
  152
  165
  178
  191
  205
  219
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
  314
  332
  351
  371
  391
  412
  435
  458
  482
  508
  534
  562
  591
  622
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  85
  487
  497
  517
  538
  559
  581
  604
  628
  653
  679
  632
  661
  691
  722
  755
  790
  827
  865
  905
  947
  992
  1,038
  1,087
  1,139
  1,193
  1,249
  1,309
  1,371
  1,437
  1,506
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  43
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  515
  479
  496
  514
  532
  552
  572
  594
  616
  640
  590
  616
  643
  672
  702
  734
  767
  802
  838
  877
  917
  960
  1,005
  1,051
  1,101
  1,153
  1,207
  1,264
  1,324
  1,387
Discount rate, %
 
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.49
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.40
  17.22
  18.08
  18.98
  19.93
  20.93
  21.98
  23.08
  24.23
  25.44
  26.71
  28.05
  29.45
  30.92
  32.47
  34.09
  35.80
  37.59
  39.47
  41.44
  43.51
  45.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  464
  384
  351
  317
  283
  249
  217
  186
  157
  131
  95
  77
  61
  47
  36
  26
  19
  14
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Select Medical Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiary, Select Medical Corporation, operates specialty hospitals, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and occupational medicine centers in the United States. The company’s Specialty Hospitals segment operates long term acute care hospitals (LTCHs) and inpatient acute rehabilitative hospitals. This segment offers various medical services for the treatment of respiratory failure, neuromuscular disorders, traumatic brain and spinal cord injuries, strokes, non-healing wounds, cardiac disorders, renal disorders, and cancer. As of December 31, 2016, this segment operated 123 specialty hospitals, including 103 LTCHs and 20 inpatient rehabilitation facilities in 27 states. Its Outpatient Rehabilitation segment operates clinics that provide physical, occupational, and speech rehabilitation services. This segment also offers specialized programs, such as functional programs for work related injuries, hand therapy, post-concussion rehabilitation, and athletic training services; and services that are designed to prevent short term disabilities from becoming chronic conditions. This segment operated 1,611 outpatient rehabilitation clinics in 37 states and the District of Columbia. The company’s Concentra segment operates and provides medical centers and contract services at employer worksites and Department of Veterans Affairs community-based outpatient clinics (CBOCs) that deliver occupational medicine, consumer health, physical therapy, and veteran's healthcare services. This segment operated 300 medical centers, 107 onsite clinics at employer worksites, and 32 Department of Veterans Affairs CBOCs in 43 states. Select Medical Holdings Corporation was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Select Medical Holdings (SEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.9
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -11.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 329%
Total Debt to Equity 335.5%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 3.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 13.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Net Profit Margin 2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

SEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4286 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Select Medical Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Select Medical Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.1%, whose default value for SEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Select Medical Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Select Medical Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Select Medical Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Select Medical Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SEM are equal to 7.7%.

Life of production assets of 19.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Select Medical Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SEM is equal to 3.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $816 million for Select Medical Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 130.935 million for Select Medical Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Select Medical Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The 3 Best Hospital Stocks to Buy in 2017   [May-17-17 04:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Select Medical beats 1Q profit forecasts   [May-05-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
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▶ 5 Best Hospital Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Oct-14-16 04:32PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of SEM Financial statements of SEM Annual reports of SEM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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