Intrinsic value of Seneca Foods Cl A - SENEA

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$36.50

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$36.50

 
Intrinsic value

$10.37

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SENEA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.86
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,275
  1,301
  1,330
  1,365
  1,403
  1,446
  1,492
  1,543
  1,598
  1,657
  1,721
  1,789
  1,862
  1,939
  2,021
  2,108
  2,201
  2,298
  2,402
  2,511
  2,626
  2,748
  2,877
  3,012
  3,154
  3,305
  3,463
  3,629
  3,804
  3,989
  4,182
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,280
  1,309
  1,343
  1,381
  1,422
  1,468
  1,518
  1,572
  1,631
  1,693
  1,760
  1,832
  1,908
  1,989
  2,074
  2,165
  2,262
  2,363
  2,471
  2,584
  2,704
  2,831
  2,964
  3,104
  3,252
  3,407
  3,571
  3,743
  3,925
  4,115
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,187
  1,280
  1,309
  1,343
  1,381
  1,422
  1,468
  1,518
  1,572
  1,631
  1,693
  1,760
  1,832
  1,908
  1,989
  2,074
  2,165
  2,262
  2,363
  2,471
  2,584
  2,704
  2,831
  2,964
  3,104
  3,252
  3,407
  3,571
  3,743
  3,925
  4,115
Operating income, $m
  89
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
EBITDA, $m
  111
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
Earnings before tax, $m
  80
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
Tax expense, $m
  26
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
Net income, $m
  54
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  895
  904
  925
  948
  975
  1,005
  1,037
  1,072
  1,111
  1,152
  1,196
  1,243
  1,294
  1,347
  1,404
  1,465
  1,529
  1,597
  1,669
  1,745
  1,825
  1,910
  1,999
  2,093
  2,192
  2,296
  2,406
  2,522
  2,644
  2,772
  2,906
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  886
  904
  925
  948
  975
  1,005
  1,037
  1,072
  1,111
  1,152
  1,196
  1,243
  1,294
  1,347
  1,404
  1,465
  1,529
  1,597
  1,669
  1,745
  1,825
  1,910
  1,999
  2,093
  2,192
  2,296
  2,406
  2,522
  2,644
  2,772
  2,906
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.439
  1.439
  1.438
  1.440
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.438
  1.438
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.440
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
  1.439
Average production assets, $m
  188
  191
  196
  201
  206
  212
  219
  227
  235
  244
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  310
  323
  338
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  509
  533
  559
  586
  615
Working capital, $m
  275
  557
  569
  584
  600
  619
  639
  660
  684
  709
  737
  766
  797
  830
  865
  902
  942
  984
  1,028
  1,075
  1,124
  1,176
  1,231
  1,289
  1,350
  1,414
  1,482
  1,553
  1,628
  1,707
  1,790
Total debt, $m
  321
  322
  333
  346
  360
  376
  394
  413
  434
  456
  480
  506
  533
  563
  594
  627
  661
  698
  737
  779
  822
  868
  916
  968
  1,021
  1,078
  1,138
  1,200
  1,267
  1,336
  1,409
Total liabilities, $m
  490
  491
  502
  515
  529
  545
  563
  582
  603
  625
  649
  675
  702
  732
  763
  796
  830
  867
  906
  948
  991
  1,037
  1,085
  1,137
  1,190
  1,247
  1,307
  1,369
  1,436
  1,505
  1,578
Total equity, $m
  405
  413
  423
  433
  446
  459
  474
  490
  508
  526
  547
  568
  591
  616
  642
  670
  699
  730
  763
  797
  834
  873
  914
  957
  1,002
  1,049
  1,100
  1,153
  1,208
  1,267
  1,328
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  895
  904
  925
  948
  975
  1,004
  1,037
  1,072
  1,111
  1,151
  1,196
  1,243
  1,293
  1,348
  1,405
  1,466
  1,529
  1,597
  1,669
  1,745
  1,825
  1,910
  1,999
  2,094
  2,192
  2,296
  2,407
  2,522
  2,644
  2,772
  2,906
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.793
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.447
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457
  0.457

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  54
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Funds from operations, $m
  -7
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
Change in working capital, $m
  -46
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
Cash from operations, $m
  39
  20
  18
  16
  15
  14
  14
  13
  12
  12
  11
  10
  10
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -48
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -97
Free cash flow, $m
  -9
  -5
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -93
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  4
  8
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  73
  78
  82
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  14
  19
  23
  26
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  139
  148
  155
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -53
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.0
  96.9
  94.5
  91.7
  88.7
  85.4
  82.0
  78.5
  74.9
  71.3
  67.8
  64.3
  60.8
  57.5
  54.2
  51.0
  48.0
  45.1
  42.3
  39.7
  37.2
  34.8
  32.6
  30.4
  28.4
  26.5
  24.8
  23.1
  21.5
  20.0

Seneca Foods Corporation engages in the packaging and sale of fruits and vegetables in the United States and internationally. It offers canned and frozen produce, bottled produce, snack chips, and other food products under the private label, as well as under various national and regional brands that the company owns or licenses, including Seneca, Libby’s, Green Valley, Aunt Nellie’s, READ, Cherryman, and Seneca Farms. The company also packs Green Giant, Le Sueur, and other brands of canned vegetables, as well as selects Green Giant frozen vegetables for B&G Foods North America under a contract packing agreement. In addition, it is involved in the sale of cans and ends, as well as trucking and aircraft operations. The company offers its products to grocery outlets, including supermarkets, mass merchandisers, limited assortment stores, club stores, and dollar stores; and food service distributors, industrial markets, other food packagers, and export customers in 90 countries, as well as to federal, state, and local governments for school and other feeding programs. Seneca Foods Corporation was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Marion, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Seneca Foods Cl A (SENEA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.6
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -61.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 10.1%
Total Debt to Equity 79.3%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity 14.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
EBITDA Margin 8.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Operating Margin 6.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 32.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

SENEA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SENEA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1275 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Seneca Foods Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Seneca Foods Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SENEA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for SENEA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Seneca Foods Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Seneca Foods Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SENEA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SENEA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Seneca Foods Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Seneca Foods Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SENEA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SENEA are equal to 14.7%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Seneca Foods Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SENEA is equal to 42.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $405 million for Seneca Foods Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.761 million for Seneca Foods Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Seneca Foods Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is Seneca Foods Corp (SENEA) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-15-16 01:30AM  at Insider Monkey]
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▶ 10-Q for Seneca Foods Corp.   [Aug-03  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Seneca Foods Corp.   [Jun-11  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Seneca Foods Corp.   [Feb-04  07:07PM  at Company Spotlight]
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▶ Seneca Foods Is Undervalued, Trading Below Tangible Book Value   [Sep-16  04:39PM  at Seeking Alpha]
Stock chart of SENEA Financial statements of SENEA
Valuation of Stocks

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