Intrinsic value of Smart&Final Stores - SFS

Previous Close

$8.65

  Intrinsic Value

$13.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+50%

Previous close

$8.65

 
Intrinsic value

$13.00

 
Up/down potential

+50%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SFS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.34
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
Revenue, $m
  4,342
  4,511
  4,692
  4,885
  5,090
  5,308
  5,539
  5,783
  6,042
  6,316
  6,604
  6,909
  7,231
  7,570
  7,927
  8,304
  8,700
  9,117
  9,557
  10,019
  10,505
  11,016
  11,553
  12,119
  12,713
  13,337
  13,994
  14,683
  15,408
  16,170
  16,970
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,405
  4,579
  4,765
  4,963
  5,172
  5,395
  5,630
  5,879
  6,143
  6,421
  6,653
  6,963
  7,289
  7,634
  7,996
  8,378
  8,779
  9,202
  9,647
  10,115
  10,608
  11,125
  11,669
  12,241
  12,843
  13,475
  14,139
  14,837
  15,570
  16,341
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,300
  4,405
  4,579
  4,765
  4,963
  5,172
  5,395
  5,630
  5,879
  6,143
  6,421
  6,653
  6,963
  7,289
  7,634
  7,996
  8,378
  8,779
  9,202
  9,647
  10,115
  10,608
  11,125
  11,669
  12,241
  12,843
  13,475
  14,139
  14,837
  15,570
  16,341
Operating income, $m
  42
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
  519
  544
  571
  599
  629
EBITDA, $m
  129
  218
  227
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
  462
  485
  508
  533
  559
  586
  615
  645
  677
  710
  745
  782
  821
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  127
  134
  143
  151
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
Earnings before tax, $m
  11
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  302
  315
  329
  343
  358
  374
  391
  409
  427
Tax expense, $m
  -2
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
Net income, $m
  13
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  273
  286
  299
  312

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  54
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,952
  1,972
  2,051
  2,135
  2,225
  2,320
  2,421
  2,528
  2,641
  2,760
  2,887
  3,020
  3,160
  3,309
  3,465
  3,629
  3,803
  3,985
  4,177
  4,379
  4,591
  4,815
  5,050
  5,297
  5,556
  5,829
  6,116
  6,418
  6,734
  7,067
  7,417
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,898
  1,972
  2,051
  2,135
  2,225
  2,320
  2,421
  2,528
  2,641
  2,760
  2,887
  3,020
  3,160
  3,309
  3,465
  3,629
  3,803
  3,985
  4,177
  4,379
  4,591
  4,815
  5,050
  5,297
  5,556
  5,829
  6,116
  6,418
  6,734
  7,067
  7,417
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.287
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
  2.288
Average production assets, $m
  796
  826
  859
  894
  931
  971
  1,014
  1,058
  1,106
  1,156
  1,209
  1,264
  1,323
  1,385
  1,451
  1,520
  1,592
  1,669
  1,749
  1,833
  1,922
  2,016
  2,114
  2,218
  2,326
  2,441
  2,561
  2,687
  2,820
  2,959
  3,105
Working capital, $m
  34
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
Total debt, $m
  679
  677
  733
  793
  856
  924
  995
  1,071
  1,151
  1,236
  1,326
  1,420
  1,520
  1,625
  1,736
  1,852
  1,975
  2,104
  2,240
  2,384
  2,534
  2,693
  2,859
  3,034
  3,218
  3,412
  3,615
  3,829
  4,054
  4,290
  4,538
Total liabilities, $m
  1,400
  1,398
  1,454
  1,514
  1,577
  1,645
  1,716
  1,792
  1,872
  1,957
  2,047
  2,141
  2,241
  2,346
  2,457
  2,573
  2,696
  2,825
  2,961
  3,105
  3,255
  3,414
  3,580
  3,755
  3,939
  4,133
  4,336
  4,550
  4,775
  5,011
  5,259
Total equity, $m
  552
  574
  597
  621
  647
  675
  704
  736
  768
  803
  840
  879
  920
  963
  1,008
  1,056
  1,107
  1,160
  1,215
  1,274
  1,336
  1,401
  1,469
  1,541
  1,617
  1,696
  1,780
  1,867
  1,960
  2,057
  2,158
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,952
  1,972
  2,051
  2,135
  2,224
  2,320
  2,420
  2,528
  2,640
  2,760
  2,887
  3,020
  3,161
  3,309
  3,465
  3,629
  3,803
  3,985
  4,176
  4,379
  4,591
  4,815
  5,049
  5,296
  5,556
  5,829
  6,116
  6,417
  6,735
  7,068
  7,417
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.230
  1.180
  1.230
  1.280
  1.320
  1.370
  1.410
  1.460
  1.500
  1.540
  1.580
  1.620
  1.650
  1.690
  1.720
  1.750
  1.780
  1.810
  1.840
  1.870
  1.900
  1.920
  1.950
  1.970
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.050
  2.070
  2.090
  2.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.262
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  273
  286
  299
  312
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  87
  112
  114
  116
  119
  121
  124
  126
  129
  132
  136
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
Funds from operations, $m
  77
  168
  173
  179
  185
  191
  197
  204
  212
  219
  227
  220
  229
  238
  248
  259
  270
  282
  294
  307
  321
  336
  351
  367
  384
  401
  420
  439
  460
  481
  504
Change in working capital, $m
  -20
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  97
  166
  171
  177
  182
  189
  195
  202
  209
  217
  225
  217
  225
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  316
  330
  345
  361
  378
  395
  413
  432
  452
  474
  496
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
New CAPEX, $m
  -151
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -153
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -213
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -299
  -313
  -329
Free cash flow, $m
  -56
  88
  87
  89
  90
  91
  93
  94
  96
  98
  100
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  100
  103
  107
  110
  114
  118
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  89
  52
  56
  60
  64
  67
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  158
  167
  175
  184
  194
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  51
  52
  56
  60
  64
  67
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  158
  167
  175
  184
  194
  203
  214
  225
  236
  248
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  140
  143
  148
  153
  159
  164
  170
  176
  183
  190
  181
  188
  196
  205
  213
  223
  232
  243
  253
  265
  277
  289
  302
  316
  331
  346
  362
  379
  396
  415
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  15
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  118
  120
  124
  127
  131
  135
  139
  144
  148
  153
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  172
  179
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
Discount rate, %
 
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  109
  102
  95
  89
  81
  74
  67
  60
  53
  46
  36
  30
  26
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Smart & Final Stores, Inc. is a food retailer. The Company is engaged in the business of selling fresh perishables and everyday grocery items, together with foodservice, packaging and janitorial products. The Company operates through two segments: Smart & Final, and Cash and Carry. The Smart & Final segment focuses on both household and business customers. Its Smart & Final stores offer various selections of fresh perishables and everyday grocery items, together with a focused selection of foodservice, packaging and janitorial products, under both national and private label brands. The Cash & Carry segment focuses primarily on restaurants, caterers and a range of other foodservice businesses. It operates non-membership warehouse-style grocery stores under the Smart & Final banner in California, Arizona, and Nevada. The Company also operates non-membership warehouse-style grocery stores in Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Utah, and Nevada under the Cash & Carry banner.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Smart&Final Stores (SFS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48.5
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 22.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 111.8%
Total Debt to Equity 123%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Equity 2.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
EBITDA Margin 2.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Operating Margin 1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate -18.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

SFS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SFS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4342 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Smart&Final Stores. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Smart&Final Stores. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SFS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for SFS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Smart&Final Stores, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Smart&Final Stores.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SFS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SFS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Smart&Final Stores.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Smart&Final Stores. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SFS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SFS are equal to 18.3%.

Life of production assets of 16.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Smart&Final Stores operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SFS is equal to 1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $552 million for Smart&Final Stores - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.02 million for Smart&Final Stores is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Smart&Final Stores at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 10 Losers That Will Be 2018s Best Stocks to Buy   [Dec-04-17 02:10PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Smart & Final Stores misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-15-17 04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Smart & Final Stores, Inc. Stock Jumped Today   [Jul-26-17 01:12PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Smart & Final Stores posts 2Q profit   [Jul-25-17 10:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] As Grocery Stores Struggle, Some CEOs Get Bargain-Bin Bonuses   [Jun-10-17 09:49AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Smart & Final Stores reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 07:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Smart & Final Stores posts 4Q loss   [Mar-08-17 06:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Smart & Final Stores Inc (SFS) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-13-16 08:21AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Concordia International Corp (CXRX)   [Dec-04-16 10:53PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of SFS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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