Intrinsic value of Seattle Genetics - SGEN

Previous Close

$52.55

  Intrinsic Value

$1.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$52.55

 
Intrinsic value

$1.11

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SGEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.04
  13.70
  12.83
  12.05
  11.34
  10.71
  10.14
  9.62
  9.16
  8.75
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.46
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
Revenue, $m
  418
  475
  536
  601
  669
  741
  816
  894
  976
  1,061
  1,150
  1,243
  1,339
  1,439
  1,542
  1,650
  1,762
  1,879
  2,000
  2,126
  2,257
  2,394
  2,537
  2,685
  2,840
  3,002
  3,171
  3,347
  3,531
  3,724
  3,926
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  605
  683
  765
  852
  943
  1,038
  1,138
  1,243
  1,351
  1,464
  1,582
  1,704
  1,831
  1,963
  2,101
  2,243
  2,392
  2,546
  2,707
  2,874
  3,048
  3,229
  3,418
  3,616
  3,821
  4,036
  4,261
  4,496
  4,741
  4,997
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
Total operating expenses, $m
  561
  636
  715
  797
  885
  977
  1,073
  1,174
  1,280
  1,388
  1,502
  1,621
  1,744
  1,872
  2,005
  2,144
  2,288
  2,438
  2,593
  2,755
  2,923
  3,098
  3,281
  3,471
  3,670
  3,877
  4,093
  4,319
  4,556
  4,802
  5,060
Operating income, $m
  -143
  -160
  -178
  -196
  -216
  -236
  -257
  -280
  -303
  -327
  -352
  -379
  -406
  -434
  -463
  -494
  -526
  -559
  -593
  -628
  -665
  -704
  -744
  -786
  -830
  -875
  -923
  -972
  -1,024
  -1,078
  -1,135
EBITDA, $m
  -125
  -147
  -163
  -180
  -197
  -216
  -235
  -255
  -276
  -298
  -321
  -344
  -369
  -394
  -421
  -448
  -477
  -507
  -538
  -570
  -603
  -638
  -674
  -712
  -751
  -792
  -835
  -880
  -927
  -975
  -1,026
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
Earnings before tax, $m
  -140
  -160
  -179
  -198
  -219
  -240
  -263
  -287
  -311
  -337
  -363
  -391
  -420
  -450
  -481
  -513
  -547
  -582
  -618
  -655
  -695
  -735
  -778
  -822
  -868
  -917
  -967
  -1,019
  -1,074
  -1,131
  -1,191
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -140
  -160
  -179
  -198
  -219
  -240
  -263
  -287
  -311
  -337
  -363
  -391
  -420
  -450
  -481
  -513
  -547
  -582
  -618
  -655
  -695
  -735
  -778
  -822
  -868
  -917
  -967
  -1,019
  -1,074
  -1,131
  -1,191

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  589
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  838
  283
  319
  358
  398
  441
  486
  533
  581
  632
  685
  740
  797
  857
  919
  983
  1,050
  1,119
  1,191
  1,266
  1,345
  1,426
  1,511
  1,599
  1,692
  1,788
  1,889
  1,994
  2,103
  2,218
  2,338
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  249
  283
  319
  358
  398
  441
  486
  533
  581
  632
  685
  740
  797
  857
  919
  983
  1,050
  1,119
  1,191
  1,266
  1,345
  1,426
  1,511
  1,599
  1,692
  1,788
  1,889
  1,994
  2,103
  2,218
  2,338
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.679
  1.678
  1.680
  1.679
  1.681
  1.680
  1.679
  1.677
  1.680
  1.679
  1.679
  1.680
  1.680
  1.679
  1.678
  1.679
  1.678
  1.679
  1.679
  1.679
  1.678
  1.679
  1.679
  1.679
  1.678
  1.679
  1.679
  1.679
  1.679
  1.679
  1.679
Average production assets, $m
  58
  66
  74
  83
  92
  102
  113
  123
  135
  146
  159
  172
  185
  199
  213
  228
  243
  259
  276
  293
  312
  330
  350
  371
  392
  414
  438
  462
  487
  514
  542
Working capital, $m
  586
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
Total debt, $m
  0
  28
  58
  89
  122
  157
  194
  232
  272
  314
  357
  402
  449
  498
  548
  601
  656
  712
  772
  833
  897
  964
  1,033
  1,106
  1,181
  1,260
  1,343
  1,429
  1,519
  1,613
  1,711
Total liabilities, $m
  204
  232
  262
  293
  326
  361
  398
  436
  476
  518
  561
  606
  653
  702
  752
  805
  860
  916
  976
  1,037
  1,101
  1,168
  1,237
  1,310
  1,385
  1,464
  1,547
  1,633
  1,723
  1,817
  1,915
Total equity, $m
  634
  51
  58
  65
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  216
  229
  243
  258
  273
  289
  306
  324
  342
  361
  381
  401
  423
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  838
  283
  320
  358
  398
  441
  486
  532
  581
  632
  685
  740
  797
  857
  918
  983
  1,050
  1,119
  1,192
  1,266
  1,344
  1,426
  1,510
  1,599
  1,691
  1,788
  1,889
  1,994
  2,104
  2,218
  2,338
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.540
  1.000
  1.380
  1.700
  1.970
  2.200
  2.410
  2.590
  2.740
  2.880
  3.000
  3.110
  3.210
  3.300
  3.380
  3.450
  3.520
  3.580
  3.630
  3.690
  3.730
  3.780
  3.820
  3.860
  3.890
  3.930
  3.960
  3.990
  4.020
  4.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -140
  -160
  -179
  -198
  -219
  -240
  -263
  -287
  -311
  -337
  -363
  -391
  -420
  -450
  -481
  -513
  -547
  -582
  -618
  -655
  -695
  -735
  -778
  -822
  -868
  -917
  -967
  -1,019
  -1,074
  -1,131
  -1,191
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  92
  97
  103
  108
Funds from operations, $m
  -128
  -147
  -164
  -182
  -200
  -220
  -240
  -262
  -284
  -307
  -332
  -357
  -383
  -410
  -438
  -468
  -498
  -530
  -563
  -597
  -632
  -669
  -708
  -748
  -790
  -834
  -879
  -927
  -977
  -1,028
  -1,083
Change in working capital, $m
  -31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -97
  -147
  -164
  -181
  -200
  -219
  -240
  -261
  -284
  -307
  -331
  -356
  -382
  -409
  -438
  -467
  -497
  -529
  -562
  -596
  -631
  -668
  -707
  -747
  -789
  -833
  -878
  -926
  -975
  -1,027
  -1,081
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Cash from investing activities, $m
  68
  -20
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -45
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -131
Free cash flow, $m
  -29
  -167
  -185
  -205
  -226
  -248
  -271
  -295
  -320
  -346
  -373
  -401
  -430
  -460
  -492
  -524
  -558
  -594
  -630
  -668
  -708
  -750
  -793
  -838
  -884
  -933
  -984
  -1,037
  -1,093
  -1,151
  -1,212
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  35
  167
  185
  205
  226
  248
  271
  295
  320
  346
  373
  401
  430
  461
  492
  525
  559
  594
  631
  669
  709
  750
  793
  838
  885
  934
  985
  1,038
  1,094
  1,152
  1,213
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  195
  215
  237
  259
  283
  308
  333
  360
  388
  416
  446
  477
  510
  543
  578
  614
  651
  690
  731
  773
  817
  863
  910
  961
  1,013
  1,067
  1,124
  1,184
  1,246
  1,311
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  52
  -167
  -185
  -205
  -226
  -248
  -271
  -295
  -320
  -346
  -373
  -401
  -430
  -461
  -492
  -525
  -559
  -594
  -631
  -669
  -709
  -750
  -793
  -838
  -885
  -934
  -985
  -1,038
  -1,094
  -1,152
  -1,213
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  589
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  450
  -155
  -174
  -193
  -213
  -234
  -256
  -280
  -304
  -329
  -356
  -383
  -411
  -441
  -472
  -504
  -537
  -571
  -607
  -644
  -683
  -723
  -765
  -809
  -854
  -902
  -951
  -1,003
  -1,057
  -1,114
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  432
  -142
  -151
  -159
  -165
  -170
  -173
  -175
  -175
  -173
  -169
  -163
  -156
  -148
  -138
  -128
  -117
  -105
  -93
  -82
  -71
  -60
  -50
  -41
  -33
  -26
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  73.0
  53.6
  39.5
  29.3
  21.8
  16.3
  12.2
  9.1
  6.9
  5.2
  3.9
  3.0
  2.3
  1.7
  1.3
  1.0
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Seattle Genetics, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on the development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of cancer. The Company is engaged in the development and sale of pharmaceutical products on its own behalf or in collaboration with others. The Company's marketed product ADCETRIS, or brentuximab vedotin, is an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC). In addition to ADCETRIS, the Company's pipeline includes other clinical-stage ADC programs, such as ASG-22ME, SGN-LIV1A, SGN-CD19A, SGN-CD19B, SGN-CD123A, SGN-352A, and ASG-15ME, as well as two immuno-oncology agents, SEA-CD40, which is based on its sugar-engineered antibody (SEA) technology, and SGN-2FF, which is a small molecule. It also has multiple preclinical and research-stage programs that employ its technologies, including SGN-CD48A and a preclinical ADC. ADCETRIS is an ADC comprising an anti-CD30 monoclonal antibody attached by a protease-cleavable linker to a microtubule disrupting agent.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Seattle Genetics (SGEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -53.4
Price to Sales 17.9
Price to Book 11.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -77
Price to Free Cash Flow -59.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 115.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -16.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.7%
Return On Total Capital -21.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.5%
Return On Equity -21.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.5%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 90%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 89.5%
EBITDA Margin -29.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.5%
Operating Margin -34.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -33.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.9%
Net Profit Margin -33.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SGEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SGEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $418 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Seattle Genetics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Seattle Genetics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SGEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SGEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Seattle Genetics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Seattle Genetics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SGEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 127.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $30 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SGEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Seattle Genetics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Seattle Genetics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SGEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SGEN are equal to 13.8%.

Life of production assets of 3.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Seattle Genetics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SGEN is equal to -0.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $634 million for Seattle Genetics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 142.969 million for Seattle Genetics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Seattle Genetics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Seattle Genetics, Inc. Fell Today   [Dec-11-17 01:06PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Immunomedics, Inc. Is Soaring Today   [Dec-06-17 03:58PM  Motley Fool]
▶ IBD Rating Upgrades: Seattle Genetics Flashes Improved Price Strength   [Oct-30-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Seattle Genetics tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-26-17 05:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Seattle Genetics May See 'Significant Upside'   [Oct-25-17 01:04PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Green Monday for Capital Markets Around the Globe   [Oct-02-17 03:03PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Is Seattle Genetics Inc (SGEN) Undervalued?   [Sep-17-17 05:43PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Seattle Genetics reports 2Q loss   [Jul-27-17 05:58PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of SGEN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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