Intrinsic value of Sangamo Therapeutics - SGMO

Previous Close

$14.15

  Intrinsic Value

$0.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

  Value-price divergence*

-237%

Previous close

$14.15

 
Intrinsic value

$0.52

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-237%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SGMO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -52.50
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  19
  30
  47
  70
  102
  144
  198
  265
  348
  448
  566
  703
  860
  1,036
  1,233
  1,450
  1,686
  1,942
  2,218
  2,512
  2,824
  3,154
  3,501
  3,866
  4,248
  4,647
  5,063
  5,496
  5,946
  6,415
  6,901
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  65
  101
  151
  219
  309
  425
  570
  748
  963
  1,216
  1,510
  1,846
  2,225
  2,648
  3,113
  3,621
  4,171
  4,763
  5,394
  6,064
  6,773
  7,519
  8,303
  9,122
  9,979
  10,872
  11,802
  12,769
  13,775
  14,821
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  92
  65
  101
  151
  219
  309
  425
  570
  748
  963
  1,216
  1,510
  1,846
  2,225
  2,648
  3,113
  3,621
  4,171
  4,763
  5,394
  6,064
  6,773
  7,519
  8,303
  9,122
  9,979
  10,872
  11,802
  12,769
  13,775
  14,821
Operating income, $m
  -73
  -35
  -54
  -81
  -117
  -165
  -227
  -305
  -400
  -515
  -650
  -807
  -986
  -1,189
  -1,415
  -1,663
  -1,935
  -2,229
  -2,545
  -2,882
  -3,240
  -3,619
  -4,018
  -4,436
  -4,874
  -5,332
  -5,809
  -6,306
  -6,823
  -7,361
  -7,919
EBITDA, $m
  -72
  -34
  -52
  -78
  -113
  -160
  -220
  -295
  -387
  -498
  -629
  -781
  -955
  -1,151
  -1,370
  -1,611
  -1,873
  -2,158
  -2,464
  -2,791
  -3,137
  -3,504
  -3,890
  -4,295
  -4,720
  -5,163
  -5,625
  -6,106
  -6,606
  -7,127
  -7,668
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  17
  21
  25
  30
  35
  41
  48
  55
  62
  70
  78
  86
  95
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  159
Earnings before tax, $m
  -72
  -35
  -54
  -81
  -118
  -167
  -230
  -309
  -406
  -523
  -660
  -820
  -1,003
  -1,210
  -1,440
  -1,693
  -1,970
  -2,270
  -2,592
  -2,937
  -3,302
  -3,689
  -4,096
  -4,523
  -4,970
  -5,437
  -5,924
  -6,431
  -6,959
  -7,508
  -8,078
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -72
  -35
  -54
  -81
  -118
  -167
  -230
  -309
  -406
  -523
  -660
  -820
  -1,003
  -1,210
  -1,440
  -1,693
  -1,970
  -2,270
  -2,592
  -2,937
  -3,302
  -3,689
  -4,096
  -4,523
  -4,970
  -5,437
  -5,924
  -6,431
  -6,959
  -7,508
  -8,078

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  143
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  158
  24
  37
  55
  80
  113
  156
  209
  275
  354
  447
  555
  679
  818
  973
  1,144
  1,331
  1,533
  1,750
  1,982
  2,229
  2,489
  2,764
  3,051
  3,353
  3,667
  3,996
  4,337
  4,693
  5,063
  5,447
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15
  24
  37
  55
  80
  113
  156
  209
  275
  354
  447
  555
  679
  818
  973
  1,144
  1,331
  1,533
  1,750
  1,982
  2,229
  2,489
  2,764
  3,051
  3,353
  3,667
  3,996
  4,337
  4,693
  5,063
  5,447
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.267
  1.250
  1.270
  1.273
  1.275
  1.274
  1.269
  1.268
  1.265
  1.266
  1.266
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
  1.267
Average production assets, $m
  5
  7
  11
  17
  24
  34
  47
  63
  83
  106
  134
  167
  204
  246
  292
  344
  400
  460
  526
  595
  669
  747
  830
  916
  1,007
  1,101
  1,200
  1,302
  1,409
  1,520
  1,636
Working capital, $m
  137
  -10
  -15
  -22
  -32
  -45
  -62
  -84
  -110
  -142
  -179
  -222
  -272
  -327
  -390
  -458
  -533
  -614
  -701
  -794
  -892
  -997
  -1,106
  -1,222
  -1,342
  -1,468
  -1,600
  -1,737
  -1,879
  -2,027
  -2,181
Total debt, $m
  4
  4
  15
  32
  54
  84
  122
  170
  229
  300
  384
  481
  593
  718
  858
  1,012
  1,180
  1,362
  1,557
  1,766
  1,988
  2,222
  2,469
  2,728
  2,999
  3,283
  3,578
  3,886
  4,206
  4,539
  4,884
Total liabilities, $m
  22
  22
  33
  50
  72
  102
  140
  188
  247
  318
  402
  499
  611
  736
  876
  1,030
  1,198
  1,380
  1,575
  1,784
  2,006
  2,240
  2,487
  2,746
  3,017
  3,301
  3,596
  3,904
  4,224
  4,557
  4,902
Total equity, $m
  136
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  16
  21
  27
  35
  45
  55
  68
  82
  97
  114
  133
  153
  175
  198
  223
  249
  276
  305
  335
  367
  400
  434
  469
  506
  545
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  158
  24
  37
  56
  80
  113
  156
  209
  274
  353
  447
  554
  679
  818
  973
  1,144
  1,331
  1,533
  1,750
  1,982
  2,229
  2,489
  2,763
  3,051
  3,352
  3,668
  3,996
  4,338
  4,693
  5,063
  5,447
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.029
  1.500
  4.140
  5.750
  6.760
  7.410
  7.850
  8.140
  8.350
  8.490
  8.600
  8.680
  8.730
  8.780
  8.820
  8.840
  8.860
  8.880
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.467
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -72
  -35
  -54
  -81
  -118
  -167
  -230
  -309
  -406
  -523
  -660
  -820
  -1,003
  -1,210
  -1,440
  -1,693
  -1,970
  -2,270
  -2,592
  -2,937
  -3,302
  -3,689
  -4,096
  -4,523
  -4,970
  -5,437
  -5,924
  -6,431
  -6,959
  -7,508
  -8,078
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  31
  38
  45
  53
  61
  71
  81
  92
  103
  115
  128
  141
  155
  169
  185
  200
  217
  234
  252
Funds from operations, $m
  -77
  -34
  -52
  -79
  -114
  -162
  -223
  -299
  -393
  -506
  -640
  -795
  -972
  -1,172
  -1,395
  -1,641
  -1,909
  -2,199
  -2,512
  -2,845
  -3,199
  -3,574
  -3,968
  -4,382
  -4,815
  -5,268
  -5,739
  -6,231
  -6,742
  -7,274
  -7,826
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
Cash from operations, $m
  -66
  -30
  -47
  -71
  -104
  -148
  -206
  -278
  -367
  -475
  -602
  -751
  -923
  -1,116
  -1,333
  -1,572
  -1,834
  -2,118
  -2,425
  -2,752
  -3,101
  -3,469
  -3,858
  -4,267
  -4,694
  -5,142
  -5,608
  -6,094
  -6,600
  -7,126
  -7,673
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -21
  -26
  -31
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -71
  -81
  -92
  -103
  -115
  -128
  -141
  -155
  -169
  -185
  -200
  -217
  -234
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
Cash from investing activities, $m
  18
  -4
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -30
  -37
  -44
  -53
  -63
  -73
  -85
  -96
  -109
  -122
  -136
  -151
  -166
  -181
  -197
  -214
  -231
  -250
  -268
  -288
  -307
  -328
  -349
Free cash flow, $m
  -48
  -34
  -52
  -78
  -114
  -162
  -224
  -301
  -396
  -511
  -647
  -805
  -985
  -1,189
  -1,417
  -1,668
  -1,943
  -2,241
  -2,561
  -2,903
  -3,266
  -3,651
  -4,055
  -4,481
  -4,926
  -5,391
  -5,876
  -6,381
  -6,907
  -7,454
  -8,022
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  12
  17
  23
  30
  38
  48
  59
  71
  84
  97
  111
  125
  140
  154
  168
  182
  196
  209
  222
  234
  247
  259
  271
  283
  295
  308
  320
  333
  346
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  45
  56
  83
  121
  170
  234
  314
  413
  531
  670
  831
  1,016
  1,224
  1,455
  1,711
  1,989
  2,290
  2,614
  2,960
  3,327
  3,715
  4,123
  4,552
  5,000
  5,468
  5,957
  6,465
  6,995
  7,545
  8,117
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  45
  68
  100
  144
  200
  272
  362
  472
  602
  754
  928
  1,127
  1,349
  1,595
  1,865
  2,157
  2,472
  2,810
  3,169
  3,549
  3,949
  4,370
  4,811
  5,271
  5,751
  6,252
  6,773
  7,315
  7,878
  8,463
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -47
  11
  15
  21
  29
  38
  49
  61
  75
  91
  107
  124
  142
  160
  178
  196
  214
  232
  249
  266
  282
  299
  314
  330
  345
  361
  376
  392
  408
  424
  441
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  56
  -45
  -56
  -83
  -121
  -170
  -234
  -314
  -413
  -531
  -670
  -831
  -1,016
  -1,224
  -1,455
  -1,711
  -1,989
  -2,290
  -2,614
  -2,960
  -3,327
  -3,715
  -4,123
  -4,552
  -5,000
  -5,468
  -5,957
  -6,465
  -6,995
  -7,545
  -8,117
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  143
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  109
  -40
  -62
  -92
  -132
  -185
  -253
  -337
  -440
  -563
  -707
  -874
  -1,064
  -1,277
  -1,514
  -1,775
  -2,059
  -2,365
  -2,694
  -3,044
  -3,416
  -3,809
  -4,222
  -4,655
  -5,108
  -5,581
  -6,074
  -6,587
  -7,121
  -7,676
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  104
  -37
  -54
  -76
  -103
  -134
  -171
  -211
  -253
  -295
  -336
  -373
  -405
  -429
  -445
  -451
  -448
  -436
  -415
  -387
  -353
  -316
  -277
  -237
  -199
  -163
  -130
  -102
  -78
  -58
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  13.7
  3.8
  1.1
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc., formerly Sangamo BioSciences, Inc., is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. The Company is focused on translating science into genomic therapies that transform patients' lives using the Company's platform technologies in genome editing, gene therapy, gene regulation and cell therapy. The Company has clinical and preclinical programs in development and partnered certain programs with biopharmaceutical companies to expedite clinical and commercial development. The focus for its Company is the development of human therapeutics. The Company's product pipeline includes SB-525, SB-FIX, SB-318, SB-913, SB-728-T and SB-728-HSPC. The Company has initiated a Phase I/II clinical trial evaluating its zinc finger nuclease (ZFN) in vivo genome editing approach for the treatment of hemophilia B. In the development of its ZFP technology platform, it is focusing its resources on product development for therapeutic use in humans and on its non-therapeutic applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.9
Price to Sales 52.8
Price to Book 7.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -15.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -15
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -52.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.9%
Total Debt to Equity 2.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -38.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.3%
Return On Total Capital -43.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.6%
Return On Equity -43.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -373.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -180.2%
Operating Margin -384.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -186%
Pre-Tax Margin -378.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -183.5%
Net Profit Margin -378.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -179.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SGMO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SGMO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $19 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sangamo Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Sangamo Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SGMO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SGMO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sangamo Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sangamo Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SGMO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 215.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SGMO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Sangamo Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sangamo Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SGMO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SGMO are equal to 23.7%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sangamo Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SGMO is equal to -31.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $136 million for Sangamo Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 84.004 million for Sangamo Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sangamo Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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Financial statements of SGMO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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