Intrinsic value of Surgery Partners - SGRY

Previous Close

$15.25

  Intrinsic Value

$21.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+43%

Previous close

$15.25

 
Intrinsic value

$21.82

 
Up/down potential

+43%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SGRY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.27
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  1,145
  1,238
  1,334
  1,434
  1,539
  1,647
  1,759
  1,876
  1,998
  2,124
  2,256
  2,393
  2,536
  2,685
  2,841
  3,003
  3,172
  3,349
  3,534
  3,727
  3,929
  4,140
  4,361
  4,592
  4,835
  5,088
  5,354
  5,633
  5,924
  6,230
  6,551
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  871
  927
  985
  1,045
  1,108
  1,173
  1,240
  1,311
  1,384
  1,460
  1,384
  1,466
  1,553
  1,642
  1,736
  1,834
  1,936
  2,043
  2,155
  2,272
  2,394
  2,522
  2,655
  2,795
  2,942
  3,096
  3,257
  3,425
  3,602
  3,788
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  138
  142
  145
  149
  153
  157
  160
  164
  169
  173
  177
  182
  186
  191
  196
  200
  205
  211
  216
  221
  227
  232
  238
  244
  250
  257
  263
  270
  276
  283
Total operating expenses, $m
  949
  1,009
  1,069
  1,130
  1,194
  1,261
  1,330
  1,400
  1,475
  1,553
  1,633
  1,561
  1,648
  1,739
  1,833
  1,932
  2,034
  2,141
  2,254
  2,371
  2,493
  2,621
  2,754
  2,893
  3,039
  3,192
  3,353
  3,520
  3,695
  3,878
  4,071
Operating income, $m
  196
  228
  265
  304
  344
  386
  430
  475
  523
  572
  623
  832
  888
  947
  1,007
  1,071
  1,138
  1,207
  1,280
  1,356
  1,436
  1,520
  1,607
  1,699
  1,795
  1,896
  2,002
  2,113
  2,229
  2,352
  2,480
EBITDA, $m
  236
  393
  430
  470
  511
  554
  598
  644
  693
  743
  795
  850
  906
  966
  1,028
  1,093
  1,160
  1,231
  1,305
  1,383
  1,464
  1,549
  1,638
  1,732
  1,830
  1,932
  2,040
  2,153
  2,272
  2,396
  2,527
Interest expense (income), $m
  79
  82
  77
  87
  96
  107
  117
  128
  140
  152
  164
  177
  191
  205
  220
  235
  251
  267
  285
  303
  322
  342
  363
  384
  407
  431
  456
  482
  510
  538
  568
Earnings before tax, $m
  92
  146
  188
  218
  248
  280
  313
  347
  383
  420
  459
  655
  697
  742
  788
  836
  887
  940
  995
  1,053
  1,114
  1,178
  1,244
  1,314
  1,388
  1,465
  1,546
  1,631
  1,720
  1,813
  1,911
Tax expense, $m
  7
  39
  51
  59
  67
  76
  84
  94
  103
  113
  124
  177
  188
  200
  213
  226
  239
  254
  269
  284
  301
  318
  336
  355
  375
  396
  417
  440
  464
  490
  516
Net income, $m
  9
  107
  138
  159
  181
  204
  228
  253
  279
  307
  335
  478
  509
  541
  575
  610
  647
  686
  726
  769
  813
  860
  908
  960
  1,013
  1,069
  1,128
  1,190
  1,255
  1,324
  1,395

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  70
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,305
  2,417
  2,606
  2,802
  3,005
  3,216
  3,436
  3,664
  3,902
  4,149
  4,406
  4,674
  4,953
  5,245
  5,548
  5,865
  6,196
  6,541
  6,902
  7,279
  7,673
  8,086
  8,518
  8,970
  9,443
  9,938
  10,457
  11,001
  11,571
  12,168
  12,794
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,235
  2,417
  2,606
  2,802
  3,005
  3,216
  3,436
  3,664
  3,902
  4,149
  4,406
  4,674
  4,953
  5,245
  5,548
  5,865
  6,196
  6,541
  6,902
  7,279
  7,673
  8,086
  8,518
  8,970
  9,443
  9,938
  10,457
  11,001
  11,571
  12,168
  12,794
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
Average production assets, $m
  246
  266
  287
  308
  331
  354
  378
  403
  430
  457
  485
  515
  545
  577
  611
  646
  682
  720
  760
  801
  845
  890
  938
  987
  1,039
  1,094
  1,151
  1,211
  1,274
  1,339
  1,408
Working capital, $m
  175
  144
  155
  166
  178
  191
  204
  218
  232
  246
  262
  278
  294
  311
  330
  348
  368
  388
  410
  432
  456
  480
  506
  533
  561
  590
  621
  653
  687
  723
  760
Total debt, $m
  1,495
  1,376
  1,545
  1,721
  1,904
  2,095
  2,292
  2,498
  2,712
  2,934
  3,166
  3,407
  3,658
  3,920
  4,193
  4,478
  4,776
  5,087
  5,412
  5,751
  6,106
  6,477
  6,866
  7,273
  7,698
  8,144
  8,611
  9,101
  9,614
  10,151
  10,715
Total liabilities, $m
  2,295
  2,176
  2,345
  2,521
  2,704
  2,895
  3,092
  3,298
  3,512
  3,734
  3,966
  4,207
  4,458
  4,720
  4,993
  5,278
  5,576
  5,887
  6,212
  6,551
  6,906
  7,277
  7,666
  8,073
  8,498
  8,944
  9,411
  9,901
  10,414
  10,951
  11,515
Total equity, $m
  10
  242
  261
  280
  300
  322
  344
  366
  390
  415
  441
  467
  495
  524
  555
  586
  620
  654
  690
  728
  767
  809
  852
  897
  944
  994
  1,046
  1,100
  1,157
  1,217
  1,279
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,305
  2,418
  2,606
  2,801
  3,004
  3,217
  3,436
  3,664
  3,902
  4,149
  4,407
  4,674
  4,953
  5,244
  5,548
  5,864
  6,196
  6,541
  6,902
  7,279
  7,673
  8,086
  8,518
  8,970
  9,442
  9,938
  10,457
  11,001
  11,571
  12,168
  12,794
Debt-to-equity ratio
  149.500
  5.690
  5.930
  6.140
  6.340
  6.510
  6.670
  6.820
  6.950
  7.070
  7.180
  7.290
  7.380
  7.470
  7.560
  7.640
  7.710
  7.780
  7.840
  7.900
  7.960
  8.010
  8.060
  8.110
  8.150
  8.200
  8.230
  8.270
  8.310
  8.340
  8.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.027
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  107
  138
  159
  181
  204
  228
  253
  279
  307
  335
  478
  509
  541
  575
  610
  647
  686
  726
  769
  813
  860
  908
  960
  1,013
  1,069
  1,128
  1,190
  1,255
  1,324
  1,395
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  40
  164
  165
  166
  167
  167
  168
  169
  170
  171
  172
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
Funds from operations, $m
  82
  271
  303
  325
  348
  371
  396
  422
  449
  477
  507
  495
  527
  561
  596
  632
  670
  710
  752
  795
  841
  889
  940
  992
  1,048
  1,106
  1,167
  1,231
  1,298
  1,368
  1,442
Change in working capital, $m
  -43
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
Cash from operations, $m
  125
  260
  291
  313
  336
  359
  383
  409
  435
  463
  491
  479
  511
  543
  578
  613
  650
  689
  730
  773
  818
  865
  914
  966
  1,020
  1,076
  1,136
  1,198
  1,264
  1,333
  1,405
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
New CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -185
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
Free cash flow, $m
  -60
  232
  262
  282
  303
  325
  347
  371
  396
  421
  448
  434
  463
  493
  525
  558
  593
  629
  667
  706
  748
  791
  837
  885
  935
  987
  1,042
  1,100
  1,161
  1,225
  1,292
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  171
  -91
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  222
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  339
  355
  371
  389
  407
  426
  446
  467
  489
  513
  538
  564
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  167
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  71
  76
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  222
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  339
  355
  371
  389
  407
  426
  446
  467
  489
  513
  538
  564
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  308
  431
  458
  486
  515
  545
  577
  609
  644
  679
  675
  714
  755
  798
  843
  890
  940
  991
  1,046
  1,103
  1,163
  1,225
  1,291
  1,360
  1,433
  1,509
  1,590
  1,674
  1,762
  1,855
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -274
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  76
  412
  438
  466
  494
  523
  554
  586
  619
  654
  648
  686
  726
  768
  811
  857
  905
  955
  1,008
  1,063
  1,121
  1,182
  1,246
  1,313
  1,384
  1,458
  1,535
  1,617
  1,703
  1,793
Discount rate, %
 
  13.70
  14.39
  15.10
  15.86
  16.65
  17.49
  18.36
  19.28
  20.24
  21.25
  22.32
  23.43
  24.60
  25.83
  27.13
  28.48
  29.91
  31.40
  32.97
  34.62
  36.35
  38.17
  40.08
  42.08
  44.18
  46.39
  48.71
  51.15
  53.71
  56.39
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  67
  315
  288
  258
  229
  199
  170
  143
  118
  95
  71
  55
  42
  31
  22
  16
  11
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Surgery Partners, Inc. is a healthcare services company. The Company operates in three lines of business across the United States: Surgical Facility Services, Ancillary Services and Optical Services. The Company's Surgical Facility Services segment consists of the operation of ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) and surgical hospitals, which include its anesthesia services. The Company's surgical facilities primarily provide non-emergency surgical procedures across a range of specialties, which include gastrointestinal (GI), general surgery, ophthalmology, orthopedics and pain management. The Company's Ancillary Services segment consists of a diagnostic laboratory, a specialty pharmacy and multi-specialty physician practices. The Company's physician practices include its owned and operated physician practices pursuant to long-term management service agreements. The Company's Optical Services segment consists of an optical laboratory, an optical products group purchasing organization.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Surgery Partners (SGRY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 82.2
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 73.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 57.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 14670%
Total Debt to Equity 14950%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Equity 300%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 111.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
EBITDA Margin 18.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Operating Margin 17.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 7.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SGRY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SGRY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1145 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Surgery Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Surgery Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SGRY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.7%, whose default value for SGRY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Surgery Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Surgery Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SGRY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $135 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SGRY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Surgery Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Surgery Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SGRY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SGRY are equal to 21.5%.

Life of production assets of 43.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Surgery Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SGRY is equal to 11.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10 million for Surgery Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.173 million for Surgery Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Surgery Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Health Care Stocks With M&A Potential In 2018   [Dec-22-17 11:26AM  Benzinga]
▶ Surgery Partners, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-09-17 06:50AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Surgery Partners reports 3Q loss   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Surgery Partners, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-08-17 05:25PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Surgery Partners Inc. Is Plunging Today   [Nov-01-17 04:13PM  Motley Fool]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 28th   [Sep-28-17 09:27AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 15th   [Sep-15-17 08:16AM  Zacks]
▶ CEO out at Nashville health care company   [Sep-08-17 10:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 22nd   [Aug-22-17 09:14AM  Zacks]
▶ Here's Why Surgery Partners Inc. Is Sinking Today   [Aug-09-17 02:06PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Surgery Partners Investigation By Block & Leviton LLP   [Jul-18-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Surgery Partners reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 07:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Surgery Partners misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Mar-09-17 05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Odds of Surgery Partners' Takeout Grow   [Jan-19-17 10:11AM  TheStreet.com]
Financial statements of SGRY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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