Intrinsic value of Surgery Partners - SGRY

Previous Close

$9.15

  Intrinsic Value

$17.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+91%

  Value-price divergence*

-146%

Previous close

$9.15

 
Intrinsic value

$17.51

 
Up/down potential

+91%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-146%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SGRY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.27
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  1,145
  1,226
  1,311
  1,399
  1,490
  1,585
  1,684
  1,787
  1,894
  2,006
  2,123
  2,244
  2,371
  2,504
  2,642
  2,787
  2,939
  3,097
  3,263
  3,436
  3,618
  3,808
  4,007
  4,216
  4,434
  4,663
  4,904
  5,156
  5,420
  5,697
  5,987
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  871
  920
  971
  1,024
  1,080
  1,138
  1,198
  1,260
  1,325
  1,393
  1,309
  1,383
  1,460
  1,541
  1,626
  1,714
  1,806
  1,903
  2,004
  2,110
  2,221
  2,337
  2,459
  2,586
  2,720
  2,860
  3,007
  3,161
  3,322
  3,492
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  132
  136
  139
  142
  146
  150
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  178
  182
  187
  192
  196
  201
  206
  211
  217
  222
  228
  233
  239
  245
  251
  258
  264
  271
Total operating expenses, $m
  949
  1,003
  1,056
  1,110
  1,166
  1,226
  1,288
  1,351
  1,417
  1,486
  1,558
  1,478
  1,556
  1,638
  1,723
  1,813
  1,906
  2,002
  2,104
  2,210
  2,321
  2,438
  2,559
  2,687
  2,819
  2,959
  3,105
  3,258
  3,419
  3,586
  3,763
Operating income, $m
  197
  223
  255
  289
  323
  359
  397
  436
  477
  520
  564
  766
  815
  866
  919
  975
  1,033
  1,095
  1,159
  1,226
  1,297
  1,371
  1,448
  1,530
  1,615
  1,705
  1,799
  1,898
  2,001
  2,110
  2,225
EBITDA, $m
  237
  388
  420
  454
  489
  526
  564
  604
  646
  689
  735
  782
  832
  884
  938
  995
  1,054
  1,117
  1,182
  1,251
  1,322
  1,398
  1,477
  1,560
  1,647
  1,738
  1,834
  1,935
  2,040
  2,151
  2,268
Interest expense (income), $m
  79
  84
  80
  88
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  147
  159
  170
  183
  196
  209
  223
  238
  253
  269
  286
  304
  322
  341
  362
  383
  405
  428
  452
  478
  505
  533
Earnings before tax, $m
  92
  140
  176
  200
  226
  253
  281
  310
  340
  372
  405
  596
  632
  670
  710
  752
  796
  841
  889
  940
  993
  1,048
  1,107
  1,168
  1,232
  1,300
  1,371
  1,445
  1,523
  1,606
  1,692
Tax expense, $m
  7
  38
  47
  54
  61
  68
  76
  84
  92
  101
  109
  161
  171
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  268
  283
  299
  315
  333
  351
  370
  390
  411
  434
  457
Net income, $m
  9
  102
  128
  146
  165
  185
  205
  226
  249
  272
  296
  435
  461
  489
  518
  549
  581
  614
  649
  686
  725
  765
  808
  853
  900
  949
  1,001
  1,055
  1,112
  1,172
  1,235

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  70
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,305
  2,467
  2,637
  2,814
  2,998
  3,189
  3,388
  3,595
  3,811
  4,036
  4,271
  4,516
  4,771
  5,038
  5,317
  5,608
  5,913
  6,232
  6,565
  6,914
  7,279
  7,662
  8,063
  8,482
  8,922
  9,383
  9,867
  10,373
  10,905
  11,462
  12,046
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,235
  2,467
  2,637
  2,814
  2,998
  3,189
  3,388
  3,595
  3,811
  4,036
  4,271
  4,516
  4,771
  5,038
  5,317
  5,608
  5,913
  6,232
  6,565
  6,914
  7,279
  7,662
  8,063
  8,482
  8,922
  9,383
  9,867
  10,373
  10,905
  11,462
  12,046
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.512
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
Average production assets, $m
  246
  264
  282
  301
  320
  341
  362
  384
  407
  431
  456
  483
  510
  538
  568
  599
  632
  666
  702
  739
  778
  819
  862
  906
  953
  1,003
  1,054
  1,108
  1,165
  1,225
  1,287
Working capital, $m
  175
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  195
  207
  220
  233
  246
  260
  275
  290
  307
  323
  341
  359
  378
  399
  420
  442
  465
  489
  514
  541
  569
  598
  629
  661
  694
Total debt, $m
  1,495
  1,421
  1,574
  1,733
  1,898
  2,070
  2,249
  2,436
  2,630
  2,833
  3,044
  3,264
  3,494
  3,734
  3,985
  4,247
  4,522
  4,808
  5,109
  5,423
  5,751
  6,096
  6,456
  6,834
  7,230
  7,645
  8,080
  8,536
  9,014
  9,516
  10,042
Total liabilities, $m
  2,295
  2,221
  2,374
  2,533
  2,698
  2,870
  3,049
  3,236
  3,430
  3,633
  3,844
  4,064
  4,294
  4,534
  4,785
  5,047
  5,322
  5,608
  5,909
  6,223
  6,551
  6,896
  7,256
  7,634
  8,030
  8,445
  8,880
  9,336
  9,814
  10,316
  10,842
Total equity, $m
  10
  247
  264
  281
  300
  319
  339
  360
  381
  404
  427
  452
  477
  504
  532
  561
  591
  623
  657
  691
  728
  766
  806
  848
  892
  938
  987
  1,037
  1,090
  1,146
  1,205
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,305
  2,468
  2,638
  2,814
  2,998
  3,189
  3,388
  3,596
  3,811
  4,037
  4,271
  4,516
  4,771
  5,038
  5,317
  5,608
  5,913
  6,231
  6,566
  6,914
  7,279
  7,662
  8,062
  8,482
  8,922
  9,383
  9,867
  10,373
  10,904
  11,462
  12,047
Debt-to-equity ratio
  149.500
  5.760
  5.970
  6.160
  6.330
  6.490
  6.640
  6.770
  6.900
  7.020
  7.130
  7.230
  7.320
  7.410
  7.500
  7.570
  7.650
  7.720
  7.780
  7.840
  7.900
  7.960
  8.010
  8.060
  8.100
  8.150
  8.190
  8.230
  8.270
  8.300
  8.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.027
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  102
  128
  146
  165
  185
  205
  226
  249
  272
  296
  435
  461
  489
  518
  549
  581
  614
  649
  686
  725
  765
  808
  853
  900
  949
  1,001
  1,055
  1,112
  1,172
  1,235
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  40
  164
  165
  166
  166
  167
  168
  168
  169
  170
  171
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Funds from operations, $m
  82
  266
  293
  312
  331
  351
  373
  395
  418
  442
  467
  451
  478
  507
  537
  569
  602
  636
  673
  711
  751
  793
  837
  883
  931
  982
  1,036
  1,092
  1,151
  1,213
  1,278
Change in working capital, $m
  -43
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  125
  257
  283
  302
  321
  340
  361
  383
  405
  429
  453
  437
  464
  492
  521
  552
  584
  618
  653
  691
  730
  771
  814
  859
  906
  956
  1,008
  1,063
  1,120
  1,181
  1,244
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
New CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -185
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -103
Free cash flow, $m
  -60
  231
  256
  273
  291
  309
  328
  348
  369
  391
  414
  395
  420
  446
  473
  502
  532
  563
  596
  630
  666
  704
  743
  785
  829
  875
  923
  973
  1,027
  1,082
  1,141
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  171
  -74
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
  501
  526
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  135
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  71
  61
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
  501
  526
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  291
  409
  432
  456
  481
  508
  535
  564
  594
  625
  616
  650
  686
  724
  764
  806
  850
  896
  944
  995
  1,048
  1,104
  1,163
  1,225
  1,290
  1,358
  1,429
  1,505
  1,584
  1,667
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -237
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  55
  392
  415
  438
  462
  488
  514
  542
  571
  601
  591
  625
  660
  696
  735
  775
  818
  862
  909
  958
  1,010
  1,064
  1,121
  1,181
  1,243
  1,309
  1,379
  1,452
  1,528
  1,609
Discount rate, %
 
  13.70
  14.39
  15.10
  15.86
  16.65
  17.49
  18.36
  19.28
  20.24
  21.25
  22.32
  23.43
  24.60
  25.83
  27.13
  28.48
  29.91
  31.40
  32.97
  34.62
  36.35
  38.17
  40.08
  42.08
  44.18
  46.39
  48.71
  51.15
  53.71
  56.39
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  48
  300
  272
  243
  214
  185
  158
  132
  109
  88
  64
  50
  38
  28
  20
  14
  10
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6
  42.6

Surgery Partners, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates surgical facilities in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Surgical Facility Services, Ancillary Services, and Optical Services. Its surgical facilities comprise ambulatory surgery centers and surgical hospitals that offer non-emergency surgical procedures in various specialties, including gastrointestinal, general surgery, ophthalmology, orthopedics, cardiology, and pain management, as well as ear, nose, and throat. The company’s surgical hospitals provide acute care services, such as diagnostic imaging, pharmacy, laboratory, obstetrics, oncology, physical therapy, and wound care; and a suite of ancillary services, which consists of a diagnostic laboratory, multi-specialty physician practices, urgent care facilities, anesthesia services, optical services, and specialty pharmacy services. It also operates optical laboratory that manufactures eyewear. As of December 31, 2015, the company owned and operated a portfolio of 101 surgical facilities, which included 96 ambulatory surgery centers and 5 surgical hospitals in 29 states. Surgery Partners, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Surgery Partners (SGRY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 49.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 44.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 57.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 14670%
Total Debt to Equity 14950%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Equity 300%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 111.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
EBITDA Margin 18.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Operating Margin 17.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 7.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SGRY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SGRY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1145 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Surgery Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Surgery Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SGRY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.7%, whose default value for SGRY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Surgery Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Surgery Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SGRY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $129 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SGRY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Surgery Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Surgery Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SGRY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SGRY are equal to 21.5%.

Life of production assets of 43.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Surgery Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SGRY is equal to 11.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10 million for Surgery Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.387 million for Surgery Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Surgery Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Here's Why Surgery Partners Inc. Is Sinking Today   [Aug-09-17 02:06PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Surgery Partners Investigation By Block & Leviton LLP   [Jul-18-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Surgery Partners reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 07:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Surgery Partners misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Mar-09-17 05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Odds of Surgery Partners' Takeout Grow   [Jan-19-17 10:11AM  TheStreet.com]
Stock chart of SGRY Financial statements of SGRY
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