Intrinsic value of Seanergy Maritime Holdings - SHIP

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$0.81

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$0.81

 
Intrinsic value

$595.28

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SHIP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  450.00
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  11
  18
  27
  41
  59
  83
  114
  154
  202
  260
  328
  407
  498
  600
  714
  839
  976
  1,125
  1,284
  1,454
  1,635
  1,826
  2,027
  2,238
  2,459
  2,690
  2,931
  3,182
  3,442
  3,714
  3,996
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  -704
  -1,088
  -1,627
  -2,360
  -3,330
  -4,578
  -6,145
  -8,068
  -10,382
  -13,113
  -16,284
  -19,908
  -23,996
  -28,551
  -33,571
  -39,051
  -44,983
  -51,359
  -58,166
  -65,396
  -73,039
  -81,087
  -89,533
  -98,374
  -107,608
  -117,237
  -127,265
  -137,699
  -148,548
  -159,823
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  18
  -704
  -1,088
  -1,627
  -2,360
  -3,330
  -4,578
  -6,145
  -8,068
  -10,382
  -13,113
  -16,284
  -19,908
  -23,996
  -28,551
  -33,571
  -39,051
  -44,983
  -51,359
  -58,166
  -65,396
  -73,039
  -81,087
  -89,533
  -98,374
  -107,608
  -117,237
  -127,265
  -137,699
  -148,548
  -159,823
Operating income, $m
  -7
  722
  1,115
  1,667
  2,419
  3,413
  4,692
  6,298
  8,270
  10,642
  13,441
  16,691
  20,406
  24,596
  29,265
  34,410
  40,027
  46,108
  52,643
  59,621
  67,031
  74,865
  83,114
  91,771
  100,833
  110,298
  120,168
  130,447
  141,141
  152,261
  163,819
EBITDA, $m
  -5
  722
  1,115
  1,667
  2,419
  3,413
  4,692
  6,298
  8,270
  10,642
  13,441
  16,691
  20,406
  24,596
  29,265
  34,410
  40,027
  46,108
  52,643
  59,621
  67,031
  74,865
  83,114
  91,771
  100,833
  110,298
  120,168
  130,447
  141,141
  152,261
  163,819
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  6
  10
  16
  24
  34
  49
  67
  90
  118
  152
  192
  238
  292
  352
  418
  492
  572
  659
  753
  852
  958
  1,071
  1,188
  1,312
  1,442
  1,577
  1,718
  1,865
  2,018
  2,177
Earnings before tax, $m
  -9
  715
  1,105
  1,652
  2,396
  3,379
  4,644
  6,231
  8,180
  10,524
  13,289
  16,499
  20,168
  24,305
  28,913
  33,992
  39,535
  45,536
  51,984
  58,868
  66,179
  73,907
  82,043
  90,583
  99,521
  108,857
  118,591
  128,729
  139,276
  150,243
  161,641
Tax expense, $m
  0
  193
  298
  446
  647
  912
  1,254
  1,682
  2,209
  2,841
  3,588
  4,455
  5,445
  6,562
  7,807
  9,178
  10,675
  12,295
  14,036
  15,894
  17,868
  19,955
  22,152
  24,457
  26,871
  29,391
  32,020
  34,757
  37,605
  40,566
  43,643
Net income, $m
  -9
  522
  807
  1,206
  1,749
  2,466
  3,390
  4,549
  5,972
  7,682
  9,701
  12,044
  14,722
  17,742
  21,107
  24,814
  28,861
  33,241
  37,948
  42,974
  48,311
  53,952
  59,892
  66,125
  72,650
  79,465
  86,572
  93,972
  101,671
  109,677
  117,998

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  209
  332
  513
  767
  1,113
  1,571
  2,159
  2,898
  3,806
  4,897
  6,186
  7,681
  9,391
  11,319
  13,467
  15,835
  18,420
  21,219
  24,226
  27,437
  30,847
  34,452
  38,248
  42,232
  46,403
  50,759
  55,301
  60,031
  64,952
  70,070
  75,388
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  206
  332
  513
  767
  1,113
  1,571
  2,159
  2,898
  3,806
  4,897
  6,186
  7,681
  9,391
  11,319
  13,467
  15,835
  18,420
  21,219
  24,226
  27,437
  30,847
  34,452
  38,248
  42,232
  46,403
  50,759
  55,301
  60,031
  64,952
  70,070
  75,388
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.053
  0.054
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
  0.053
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  -178
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -71
  -89
  -111
  -136
  -164
  -195
  -229
  -267
  -307
  -351
  -397
  -446
  -498
  -553
  -611
  -671
  -734
  -800
  -869
  -940
  -1,014
  -1,091
Total debt, $m
  178
  287
  448
  673
  981
  1,387
  1,909
  2,566
  3,372
  4,341
  5,485
  6,813
  8,331
  10,043
  11,951
  14,054
  16,349
  18,834
  21,505
  24,356
  27,384
  30,586
  33,957
  37,494
  41,198
  45,066
  49,099
  53,299
  57,670
  62,214
  66,937
Total liabilities, $m
  186
  295
  456
  681
  989
  1,395
  1,917
  2,574
  3,380
  4,349
  5,493
  6,821
  8,339
  10,051
  11,959
  14,062
  16,357
  18,842
  21,513
  24,364
  27,392
  30,594
  33,965
  37,502
  41,206
  45,074
  49,107
  53,307
  57,678
  62,222
  66,945
Total equity, $m
  23
  37
  57
  86
  125
  176
  242
  325
  426
  548
  693
  860
  1,052
  1,268
  1,508
  1,774
  2,063
  2,376
  2,713
  3,073
  3,455
  3,859
  4,284
  4,730
  5,197
  5,685
  6,194
  6,723
  7,275
  7,848
  8,443
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  209
  332
  513
  767
  1,114
  1,571
  2,159
  2,899
  3,806
  4,897
  6,186
  7,681
  9,391
  11,319
  13,467
  15,836
  18,420
  21,218
  24,226
  27,437
  30,847
  34,453
  38,249
  42,232
  46,403
  50,759
  55,301
  60,030
  64,953
  70,070
  75,388
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.739
  7.710
  7.790
  7.840
  7.860
  7.880
  7.900
  7.900
  7.910
  7.910
  7.920
  7.920
  7.920
  7.920
  7.920
  7.920
  7.920
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
  7.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.097
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -9
  522
  807
  1,206
  1,749
  2,466
  3,390
  4,549
  5,972
  7,682
  9,701
  12,044
  14,722
  17,742
  21,107
  24,814
  28,861
  33,241
  37,948
  42,974
  48,311
  53,952
  59,892
  66,125
  72,650
  79,465
  86,572
  93,972
  101,671
  109,677
  117,998
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -4
  522
  807
  1,206
  1,749
  2,466
  3,390
  4,549
  5,972
  7,682
  9,701
  12,044
  14,722
  17,742
  21,107
  24,814
  28,861
  33,241
  37,948
  42,974
  48,311
  53,952
  59,892
  66,125
  72,650
  79,465
  86,572
  93,972
  101,671
  109,677
  117,998
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
Cash from operations, $m
  -5
  524
  809
  1,209
  1,754
  2,473
  3,398
  4,560
  5,985
  7,698
  9,720
  12,066
  14,747
  17,770
  21,138
  24,848
  28,898
  33,282
  37,991
  43,020
  48,360
  54,004
  59,946
  66,183
  72,710
  79,528
  86,637
  94,040
  101,743
  109,751
  118,075
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -202
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -207
  524
  809
  1,209
  1,754
  2,473
  3,398
  4,560
  5,985
  7,698
  9,720
  12,066
  14,747
  17,770
  21,138
  24,848
  28,898
  33,282
  37,991
  43,020
  48,360
  54,004
  59,946
  66,183
  72,710
  79,528
  86,637
  94,040
  101,743
  109,751
  118,075
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  178
  112
  161
  226
  307
  406
  523
  656
  806
  969
  1,144
  1,328
  1,518
  1,712
  1,908
  2,103
  2,295
  2,485
  2,670
  2,852
  3,028
  3,201
  3,371
  3,538
  3,703
  3,868
  4,033
  4,200
  4,370
  4,544
  4,723
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  207
  112
  161
  226
  307
  406
  523
  656
  806
  969
  1,144
  1,328
  1,518
  1,712
  1,908
  2,103
  2,295
  2,485
  2,670
  2,852
  3,028
  3,201
  3,371
  3,538
  3,703
  3,868
  4,033
  4,200
  4,370
  4,544
  4,723
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  636
  970
  1,435
  2,061
  2,879
  3,921
  5,216
  6,790
  8,667
  10,864
  13,394
  16,265
  19,483
  23,046
  26,951
  31,194
  35,767
  40,662
  45,872
  51,388
  57,205
  63,317
  69,721
  76,414
  83,396
  90,671
  98,241
  106,113
  114,295
  122,798
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -14
  -20
  -28
  -39
  -51
  -66
  -83
  -102
  -122
  -144
  -167
  -191
  -216
  -241
  -265
  -290
  -313
  -337
  -360
  -382
  -404
  -425
  -446
  -467
  -488
  -509
  -530
  -551
  -573
  -596
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  622
  950
  1,407
  2,022
  2,828
  3,855
  5,133
  6,689
  8,545
  10,720
  13,226
  16,074
  19,267
  22,805
  26,686
  30,904
  35,453
  40,325
  45,512
  51,006
  56,801
  62,892
  69,275
  75,947
  82,908
  90,162
  97,711
  105,562
  113,722
  122,202
Discount rate, %
 
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  544
  719
  909
  1,100
  1,276
  1,419
  1,516
  1,558
  1,539
  1,464
  1,341
  1,183
  1,006
  823
  649
  493
  360
  253
  171
  111
  69
  41
  23
  13
  7
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp., through its subsidiaries, provides seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities. The company owns six Capesize and two Supramax vessels. Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. was formerly known as Seanergy Maritime Corp. and changed its name to Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. in January 2009. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Athens, Greece. Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. operates as a subsidiary of Jelco Delta Holding Corp.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Seanergy Maritime Holdings (SHIP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.8
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 450%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 773.9%
Interest Coverage -8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 89.3%
Return On Total Capital -8.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 115.4%
Return On Equity -69.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -87.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -18.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
EBITDA Margin -54.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1515.9%
Operating Margin -63.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1373%
Pre-Tax Margin -81.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1322%
Net Profit Margin -81.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1322%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SHIP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SHIP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Seanergy Maritime Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of Seanergy Maritime Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SHIP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for SHIP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Seanergy Maritime Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Seanergy Maritime Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SHIP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to -4000%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SHIP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Seanergy Maritime Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Seanergy Maritime Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SHIP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SHIP are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Seanergy Maritime Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SHIP is equal to -27.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $23 million for Seanergy Maritime Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.234 million for Seanergy Maritime Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Seanergy Maritime Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.


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