Intrinsic value of Shell Midstream Partners - SHLX

Previous Close

$25.47

  Intrinsic Value

$13.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-48%

Previous close

$25.47

 
Intrinsic value

$13.19

 
Up/down potential

-48%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SHLX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.01
  14.60
  13.64
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
Revenue, $m
  291
  333
  379
  427
  479
  533
  590
  649
  711
  776
  844
  915
  988
  1,064
  1,143
  1,225
  1,311
  1,400
  1,492
  1,588
  1,688
  1,792
  1,901
  2,014
  2,132
  2,255
  2,383
  2,517
  2,657
  2,803
  2,956
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  132
  150
  169
  189
  210
  233
  256
  281
  307
  333
  361
  390
  420
  452
  484
  518
  553
  589
  627
  667
  708
  751
  795
  842
  891
  941
  994
  1,049
  1,107
  1,168
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  131
  132
  150
  169
  189
  210
  233
  256
  281
  307
  333
  361
  390
  420
  452
  484
  518
  553
  589
  627
  667
  708
  751
  795
  842
  891
  941
  994
  1,049
  1,107
  1,168
Operating income, $m
  161
  202
  229
  259
  290
  322
  357
  393
  430
  470
  511
  553
  598
  644
  692
  741
  793
  847
  903
  961
  1,021
  1,084
  1,150
  1,218
  1,290
  1,364
  1,442
  1,523
  1,607
  1,696
  1,788
EBITDA, $m
  185
  229
  261
  294
  329
  366
  405
  446
  489
  534
  580
  629
  679
  731
  786
  842
  901
  962
  1,026
  1,092
  1,161
  1,232
  1,307
  1,384
  1,465
  1,550
  1,638
  1,730
  1,826
  1,927
  2,032
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  25
  29
  33
  38
  42
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  89
  97
  104
  112
  119
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
  258
Earnings before tax, $m
  265
  177
  200
  226
  252
  280
  309
  340
  372
  406
  441
  477
  515
  554
  595
  637
  682
  727
  775
  825
  876
  930
  986
  1,044
  1,105
  1,168
  1,235
  1,304
  1,376
  1,452
  1,530
Tax expense, $m
  0
  48
  54
  61
  68
  76
  84
  92
  101
  110
  119
  129
  139
  150
  161
  172
  184
  196
  209
  223
  237
  251
  266
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  372
  392
  413
Net income, $m
  245
  129
  146
  165
  184
  204
  226
  248
  272
  296
  322
  348
  376
  405
  434
  465
  498
  531
  566
  602
  640
  679
  720
  762
  807
  853
  901
  952
  1,005
  1,060
  1,117

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  122
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,086
  1,104
  1,255
  1,415
  1,585
  1,764
  1,952
  2,150
  2,356
  2,571
  2,795
  3,028
  3,271
  3,523
  3,785
  4,058
  4,341
  4,635
  4,941
  5,259
  5,590
  5,935
  6,294
  6,668
  7,059
  7,466
  7,890
  8,334
  8,797
  9,281
  9,787
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  964
  1,104
  1,255
  1,415
  1,585
  1,764
  1,952
  2,150
  2,356
  2,571
  2,795
  3,028
  3,271
  3,523
  3,785
  4,058
  4,341
  4,635
  4,941
  5,259
  5,590
  5,935
  6,294
  6,668
  7,059
  7,466
  7,890
  8,334
  8,797
  9,281
  9,787
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
Average production assets, $m
  502
  575
  653
  736
  825
  918
  1,016
  1,118
  1,226
  1,338
  1,454
  1,576
  1,702
  1,833
  1,970
  2,111
  2,259
  2,412
  2,571
  2,737
  2,909
  3,088
  3,275
  3,470
  3,673
  3,885
  4,106
  4,336
  4,577
  4,829
  5,093
Working capital, $m
  138
  18
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
Total debt, $m
  711
  823
  944
  1,072
  1,208
  1,351
  1,502
  1,660
  1,825
  1,997
  2,176
  2,363
  2,557
  2,759
  2,968
  3,186
  3,413
  3,648
  3,893
  4,147
  4,412
  4,688
  4,975
  5,275
  5,587
  5,912
  6,252
  6,607
  6,978
  7,365
  7,770
Total liabilities, $m
  771
  883
  1,004
  1,132
  1,268
  1,411
  1,562
  1,720
  1,885
  2,057
  2,236
  2,423
  2,617
  2,819
  3,028
  3,246
  3,473
  3,708
  3,953
  4,207
  4,472
  4,748
  5,035
  5,335
  5,647
  5,972
  6,312
  6,667
  7,038
  7,425
  7,830
Total equity, $m
  315
  221
  251
  283
  317
  353
  390
  430
  471
  514
  559
  606
  654
  705
  757
  812
  868
  927
  988
  1,052
  1,118
  1,187
  1,259
  1,334
  1,412
  1,493
  1,578
  1,667
  1,759
  1,856
  1,957
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,086
  1,104
  1,255
  1,415
  1,585
  1,764
  1,952
  2,150
  2,356
  2,571
  2,795
  3,029
  3,271
  3,524
  3,785
  4,058
  4,341
  4,635
  4,941
  5,259
  5,590
  5,935
  6,294
  6,669
  7,059
  7,465
  7,890
  8,334
  8,797
  9,281
  9,787
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.257
  3.730
  3.760
  3.790
  3.810
  3.830
  3.850
  3.860
  3.870
  3.880
  3.890
  3.900
  3.910
  3.910
  3.920
  3.930
  3.930
  3.940
  3.940
  3.940
  3.950
  3.950
  3.950
  3.960
  3.960
  3.960
  3.960
  3.960
  3.970
  3.970
  3.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  245
  129
  146
  165
  184
  204
  226
  248
  272
  296
  322
  348
  376
  405
  434
  465
  498
  531
  566
  602
  640
  679
  720
  762
  807
  853
  901
  952
  1,005
  1,060
  1,117
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
Funds from operations, $m
  292
  157
  178
  200
  223
  248
  274
  302
  330
  360
  391
  424
  457
  492
  529
  566
  606
  646
  689
  733
  779
  827
  876
  928
  982
  1,039
  1,098
  1,159
  1,224
  1,291
  1,361
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  293
  154
  175
  197
  221
  245
  271
  299
  327
  357
  388
  420
  453
  488
  524
  562
  601
  642
  684
  728
  773
  821
  870
  922
  976
  1,032
  1,091
  1,152
  1,216
  1,283
  1,352
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -219
  -231
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -212
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -252
  -263
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -228
  -97
  -105
  -114
  -123
  -132
  -142
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -335
  -352
  -369
  -388
  -407
  -427
  -448
  -471
  -494
Free cash flow, $m
  65
  57
  69
  83
  97
  113
  129
  147
  166
  186
  207
  229
  252
  275
  300
  326
  353
  380
  409
  439
  470
  502
  536
  571
  607
  645
  684
  725
  767
  812
  858
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  229
  112
  120
  128
  136
  143
  151
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  326
  340
  355
  371
  387
  405
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  144
  112
  120
  128
  136
  143
  151
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  326
  340
  355
  371
  387
  405
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  209
  170
  190
  211
  233
  256
  280
  305
  331
  358
  386
  415
  446
  477
  510
  544
  579
  616
  654
  694
  735
  778
  823
  870
  919
  970
  1,024
  1,079
  1,138
  1,199
  1,263
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -216
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  122
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  264
  160
  179
  199
  220
  242
  266
  290
  315
  341
  369
  397
  427
  457
  489
  522
  557
  593
  630
  669
  709
  751
  795
  841
  889
  939
  991
  1,045
  1,102
  1,162
Discount rate, %
 
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  248
  140
  146
  150
  152
  152
  151
  147
  141
  134
  126
  116
  106
  95
  84
  73
  62
  52
  43
  35
  28
  21
  16
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Shell Midstream Partners, L.P. is a master limited partnership company, which owns, operates, develops and acquires pipelines and other midstream assets. The Company conducts its operations through its subsidiary, Shell Midstream Operating, LLC. Its assets consist of interests in entities that own crude oil and refined products pipelines serving as key infrastructure to transport onshore and offshore crude oil production to Gulf Coast and Midwest refining markets and to deliver refined products from those markets to demand centers. As of December 31, 2016, it owned interests in seven crude oil pipeline systems, three refined products systems, one natural gas gathering pipeline system and a crude tank storage and terminal system. Its pipeline and terminal systems include Zydeco crude oil system, Auger crude oil system, Mars crude oil system, Bengal product system, Poseidon crude oil system, Odyssey crude oil system, Proteus crude oil system and Endymion crude oil system.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Shell Midstream Partners (SHLX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.4
Price to Sales 9.6
Price to Book 8.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 225.7%
Total Debt to Equity 225.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 27.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Return On Total Capital 30.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Return On Equity 118.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 99.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.4%
Operating Margin 55%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 91.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.1%
Net Profit Margin 84.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 73.5%

SHLX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SHLX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $291 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Shell Midstream Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Shell Midstream Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SHLX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for SHLX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Shell Midstream Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Shell Midstream Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SHLX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SHLX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Shell Midstream Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Shell Midstream Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SHLX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SHLX are equal to 172.3%.

Life of production assets of 20.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Shell Midstream Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SHLX is equal to 5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $315 million for Shell Midstream Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 186.452 million for Shell Midstream Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Shell Midstream Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ These Liquid Transportation MLPs Were Downgraded Last Week   [Jan-25-18 01:14PM  Market Realist]
▶ How Do These MLPs Look in 2018?   [01:37PM  Market Realist]
▶ Shells Houston-based MLP names next CEO   [Jan-10-18 06:05PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Should You Buy Shell Midstream Partners LP (SHLX) At $27.74?   [Dec-06-17 09:21AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Shell Midstream acquiring terminals, pipeline stakes for $825M   [Nov-29-17 10:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ No matter how high crude oil goes, it will fall hard back below $50   [Nov-22-17 10:42AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Crude oil is overextended and won't go much higher: NYSE trader   [Nov-21-17 01:32PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Rising crude prices are bring US shale rigs back on line   [Nov-20-17 11:05AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Shell Midstream beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-03-17 08:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ Shell Midstream misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-03-17 09:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ BP plc (ADR) (BP) Could Make a Big Income Announcement   [Jul-19-17 12:55PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Shell's MLP acquires pipelines in $630M drop-down deal   [May-05-17 02:05PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Shell Midstream misses 1Q profit forecasts   [08:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Shell Midstream Partners, L.P. Tax Packages Now Available   [Mar-09-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Shell Midstream misses 4Q profit forecasts   [09:11AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of SHLX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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