Intrinsic value of Steven Madden - SHOO

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$38.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$38.30

 
Intrinsic value

$29.41

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SHOO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.36
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,400
  1,428
  1,461
  1,498
  1,541
  1,587
  1,638
  1,694
  1,755
  1,820
  1,890
  1,964
  2,044
  2,129
  2,219
  2,315
  2,416
  2,524
  2,637
  2,757
  2,884
  3,018
  3,159
  3,307
  3,464
  3,629
  3,802
  3,985
  4,177
  4,380
  4,592
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,142
  1,168
  1,198
  1,231
  1,268
  1,308
  1,353
  1,400
  1,452
  1,507
  1,552
  1,615
  1,682
  1,754
  1,829
  1,910
  1,994
  2,084
  2,179
  2,279
  2,385
  2,496
  2,614
  2,737
  2,868
  3,005
  3,149
  3,301
  3,461
  3,629
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  199
  204
  209
  215
  220
  226
  231
  237
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,230
  1,258
  1,287
  1,320
  1,356
  1,396
  1,439
  1,487
  1,538
  1,593
  1,652
  1,700
  1,767
  1,838
  1,914
  1,993
  2,078
  2,166
  2,260
  2,360
  2,464
  2,575
  2,691
  2,813
  2,941
  3,077
  3,220
  3,369
  3,527
  3,692
  3,866
Operating income, $m
  169
  170
  174
  179
  185
  191
  199
  207
  217
  227
  238
  264
  277
  291
  306
  322
  339
  357
  377
  398
  420
  443
  468
  494
  522
  551
  583
  616
  650
  687
  726
EBITDA, $m
  190
  197
  201
  206
  213
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  326
  343
  361
  381
  401
  423
  446
  471
  497
  525
  554
  585
  618
  652
  689
  728
  768
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  171
  170
  174
  179
  184
  191
  198
  206
  215
  225
  236
  261
  273
  287
  302
  317
  334
  351
  370
  390
  412
  434
  459
  484
  511
  540
  570
  602
  635
  671
  709
Tax expense, $m
  50
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  172
  181
  191
Net income, $m
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  139
  144
  150
  157
  164
  172
  190
  200
  209
  220
  231
  244
  257
  270
  285
  301
  317
  335
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  464
  490
  517

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  166
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  973
  823
  842
  864
  888
  915
  944
  977
  1,011
  1,049
  1,089
  1,132
  1,178
  1,227
  1,279
  1,334
  1,393
  1,455
  1,520
  1,589
  1,662
  1,739
  1,821
  1,906
  1,996
  2,091
  2,192
  2,297
  2,408
  2,524
  2,647
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  807
  823
  842
  864
  888
  915
  944
  977
  1,011
  1,049
  1,089
  1,132
  1,178
  1,227
  1,279
  1,334
  1,393
  1,455
  1,520
  1,589
  1,662
  1,739
  1,821
  1,906
  1,996
  2,091
  2,192
  2,297
  2,408
  2,524
  2,647
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.734
  1.735
  1.734
  1.735
  1.734
  1.736
  1.735
  1.736
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.734
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.736
  1.734
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
  1.735
Average production assets, $m
  220
  224
  229
  235
  242
  249
  257
  266
  275
  286
  297
  308
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
  688
  721
Working capital, $m
  360
  198
  203
  208
  214
  221
  228
  236
  244
  253
  263
  273
  284
  296
  308
  322
  336
  351
  367
  383
  401
  419
  439
  460
  481
  504
  529
  554
  581
  609
  638
Total debt, $m
  0
  4
  10
  16
  23
  31
  39
  48
  58
  69
  81
  93
  106
  120
  135
  151
  168
  185
  204
  224
  245
  267
  290
  315
  341
  368
  397
  427
  459
  492
  528
Total liabilities, $m
  232
  236
  242
  248
  255
  263
  271
  280
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  352
  367
  383
  400
  417
  436
  456
  477
  499
  522
  547
  573
  600
  629
  659
  691
  724
  760
Total equity, $m
  741
  587
  600
  616
  633
  652
  673
  696
  721
  748
  777
  807
  840
  875
  912
  951
  993
  1,037
  1,084
  1,133
  1,185
  1,240
  1,298
  1,359
  1,423
  1,491
  1,563
  1,638
  1,717
  1,800
  1,887
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  973
  823
  842
  864
  888
  915
  944
  976
  1,011
  1,049
  1,090
  1,132
  1,178
  1,227
  1,279
  1,334
  1,393
  1,454
  1,520
  1,589
  1,662
  1,739
  1,820
  1,906
  1,996
  2,091
  2,192
  2,297
  2,408
  2,524
  2,647
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  139
  144
  150
  157
  164
  172
  190
  200
  209
  220
  231
  244
  257
  270
  285
  301
  317
  335
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  464
  490
  517
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
Funds from operations, $m
  148
  151
  154
  158
  162
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  209
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
  280
  295
  310
  327
  345
  364
  384
  405
  427
  451
  476
  502
  530
  560
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
Cash from operations, $m
  154
  145
  149
  153
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  186
  193
  198
  207
  217
  228
  240
  252
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  344
  363
  383
  404
  427
  451
  476
  502
  530
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -73
Free cash flow, $m
  150
  127
  131
  133
  136
  139
  143
  148
  153
  159
  166
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
  264
  279
  294
  311
  328
  347
  366
  387
  409
  432
  456
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -75
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -95
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  131
  137
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  170
  177
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
  231
  244
  257
  270
  285
  301
  318
  335
  354
  374
  395
  417
  441
  465
  492
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -63
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  166
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  285
  123
  124
  126
  128
  131
  134
  138
  143
  148
  151
  157
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
  260
  274
  290
  306
  324
  342
  362
  382
  404
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  274
  113
  108
  103
  99
  95
  91
  87
  82
  78
  72
  67
  62
  58
  53
  48
  43
  39
  34
  30
  25
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, markets, and sells fashion-forward name brand and private label footwear for women, men, and children. Its Wholesale Footwear segment provides footwear under Steve Madden Women's, Madden Girl, Steve Madden Men's, Madden, Dolce Vita, DV by Dolce Vita, Mad Love, Steven by Steve Madden, Report, Report Signature, Superga, Betsey Johnson, Steve Madden Kids, FREEBIRD by Steven, Stevies, B Brian Atwood, and Blondo brands, as well as under the third party brands. The company’s Wholesale Accessories segment offers Steve Madden, Steven by Steve Madden, Madden Girl, Betsey Johnson, Betseyville, Big Buddha, B Brian Atwood, and Luv Betsey branded; and private label fashion handbags and accessories to department stores, mass merchants, value priced retailers, online retailers, and specialty stores, as well as markets and sells cold weather accessories, fashion scarves, wraps, and other trend accessories under the Cejon and Steve Madden brands. Its Retail segment operates Steve Madden, Steven, Superga, and International retail stores, as well as Steve Madden, Superga, Betsey Johnson, and Dolce Vita e-commerce Websites. As of December 31, 2015, the company owned and operated 169 retail stores. Its First Cost segment operates as a buying agent for footwear under private labels for mass-market merchandisers, shoe chains, and other mid-tier retailers. The company’s Licensing segment licenses its Steve Madden, Steven by Steve Madden, and Madden Girl trademarks for outerwear, hosiery, activewear, sleepwear, jewelry, watches, hair accessories, umbrellas, bedding, luggage, and men’s leather accessories; and Betsey Johnson, Betseyville, and Dolce Vita trademarks for apparel, hosiery, swimwear, outerwear, sleepwear, activewear, jewelry, watches, bedding, luggage, stationary, umbrellas, and household goods. Steven Madden, Ltd. was founded in 1990 and is based in Long Island City, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Steven Madden (SHOO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.1
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 172
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Return On Total Capital 17.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Return On Equity 17.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
EBITDA Margin 13.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 29.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

SHOO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SHOO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1400 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Steven Madden. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Steven Madden. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SHOO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SHOO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Steven Madden, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Steven Madden.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SHOO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $113 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SHOO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Steven Madden.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Steven Madden. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SHOO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SHOO are equal to 15.7%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Steven Madden operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SHOO is equal to 13.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $741 million for Steven Madden - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.922 million for Steven Madden is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Steven Madden at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Steve Madden Stock Rising on First Quarter Earnings Beat   [Apr-21-17 02:45PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Steve Madden Climbs On Upbeat Q1 Earnings   [10:35AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Steven Madden beats Street 1Q forecasts   [07:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Steven Madden meets 4Q profit forecasts   [07:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Steve Madden Announces Acquisition of Schwartz & Benjamin   [Jan-30-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ The Rise and Fall of Millionaires Gone Bankrupt (SHOO)   [Jun-19-16 09:00AM  at Investopedia]
Stock chart of SHOO Financial statements of SHOO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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