Intrinsic value of Sientra - SIEN

Previous Close

$9.29

  Intrinsic Value

$0.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$9.29

 
Intrinsic value

$0.99

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -44.74
  42.90
  39.11
  35.70
  32.63
  29.87
  27.38
  25.14
  23.13
  21.31
  19.68
  18.21
  16.89
  15.70
  14.63
  13.67
  12.80
  12.02
  11.32
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.79
Revenue, $m
  21
  30
  42
  57
  75
  98
  124
  156
  192
  232
  278
  329
  384
  445
  510
  579
  653
  732
  815
  902
  993
  1,089
  1,188
  1,292
  1,400
  1,512
  1,629
  1,750
  1,877
  2,008
  2,144
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  28
  39
  53
  70
  91
  116
  145
  178
  216
  259
  305
  357
  413
  473
  538
  607
  679
  756
  837
  922
  1,011
  1,103
  1,199
  1,300
  1,404
  1,512
  1,625
  1,742
  1,863
  1,990
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
Total operating expenses, $m
  61
  71
  83
  98
  116
  139
  165
  195
  229
  268
  313
  360
  413
  471
  532
  599
  669
  743
  822
  904
  991
  1,082
  1,175
  1,273
  1,376
  1,482
  1,592
  1,707
  1,826
  1,949
  2,078
Operating income, $m
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -41
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -36
  -34
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -7
  -2
  3
  8
  13
  19
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  58
  66
EBITDA, $m
  -39
  -40
  -40
  -39
  -39
  -37
  -36
  -34
  -31
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -12
  -7
  -1
  5
  12
  19
  26
  34
  42
  51
  60
  69
  79
  89
  99
  110
  122
  134
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  80
  86
  93
  99
Earnings before tax, $m
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -43
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -40
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -33
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -43
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -40
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -33

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  67
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  114
  67
  93
  127
  168
  218
  278
  348
  428
  520
  622
  735
  860
  995
  1,140
  1,296
  1,462
  1,638
  1,823
  2,018
  2,222
  2,436
  2,658
  2,890
  3,132
  3,383
  3,645
  3,916
  4,198
  4,491
  4,796
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  47
  67
  93
  127
  168
  218
  278
  348
  428
  520
  622
  735
  860
  995
  1,140
  1,296
  1,462
  1,638
  1,823
  2,018
  2,222
  2,436
  2,658
  2,890
  3,132
  3,383
  3,645
  3,916
  4,198
  4,491
  4,796
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.447
  0.448
  0.452
  0.449
  0.446
  0.450
  0.446
  0.448
  0.449
  0.446
  0.447
  0.448
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
Average production assets, $m
  5
  7
  10
  13
  18
  23
  30
  37
  46
  55
  66
  78
  91
  106
  121
  138
  156
  174
  194
  215
  236
  259
  283
  308
  333
  360
  388
  417
  447
  478
  510
Working capital, $m
  72
  7
  10
  13
  18
  23
  30
  37
  46
  55
  66
  78
  91
  106
  121
  138
  156
  174
  194
  215
  236
  259
  283
  308
  333
  360
  388
  417
  447
  478
  510
Total debt, $m
  0
  13
  30
  51
  77
  109
  147
  192
  243
  302
  367
  439
  518
  605
  697
  797
  903
  1,015
  1,133
  1,257
  1,388
  1,524
  1,666
  1,814
  1,968
  2,129
  2,295
  2,468
  2,648
  2,836
  3,030
Total liabilities, $m
  31
  43
  60
  81
  107
  139
  177
  222
  273
  332
  397
  469
  548
  635
  727
  827
  933
  1,045
  1,163
  1,287
  1,418
  1,554
  1,696
  1,844
  1,998
  2,159
  2,325
  2,498
  2,678
  2,866
  3,060
Total equity, $m
  84
  24
  34
  46
  61
  79
  101
  126
  155
  188
  225
  266
  311
  360
  413
  469
  529
  593
  660
  730
  804
  882
  962
  1,046
  1,134
  1,225
  1,319
  1,418
  1,520
  1,626
  1,736
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  115
  67
  94
  127
  168
  218
  278
  348
  428
  520
  622
  735
  859
  995
  1,140
  1,296
  1,462
  1,638
  1,823
  2,017
  2,222
  2,436
  2,658
  2,890
  3,132
  3,384
  3,644
  3,916
  4,198
  4,492
  4,796
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.530
  0.880
  1.110
  1.270
  1.380
  1.460
  1.520
  1.570
  1.600
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.710
  1.720
  1.720
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.730
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -43
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -45
  -45
  -45
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -44
  -43
  -43
  -43
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -40
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -33
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
Funds from operations, $m
  -36
  -40
  -40
  -40
  -40
  -40
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -36
  -34
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -6
  -3
  1
  6
  10
  14
  19
  24
  29
  35
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
Cash from operations, $m
  -34
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -45
  -46
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -46
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -43
  -42
  -40
  -38
  -36
  -34
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -6
  -2
  2
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -79
  -81
  -82
  -83
  -85
  -86
  -87
  -88
  -89
  -90
  -92
  -93
  -94
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  13
  17
  21
  26
  32
  38
  45
  51
  58
  65
  72
  79
  86
  93
  99
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  187
  194
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  100
  103
  107
  110
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  126
  129
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  62
  69
  76
  84
  94
  104
  115
  125
  136
  147
  157
  168
  179
  190
  199
  209
  219
  228
  237
  245
  254
  263
  272
  280
  289
  299
  308
  318
  328
  338
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -46
  17
  22
  27
  34
  41
  48
  57
  65
  74
  82
  91
  100
  108
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  156
  164
  171
  179
  186
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  244
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  35
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -115
  -118
  -121
  -124
  -126
  -129
  -132
  -135
  -138
  -141
  -144
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  67
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  35
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -13
  -9
  -4
  1
  5
  10
  15
  20
  25
  30
  34
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  101
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  33
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -9
  -5
  -2
  0
  3
  4
  6
  7
  7
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  43.6
  22.3
  12.9
  8.2
  5.6
  4.1
  3.1
  2.5
  2.0
  1.7
  1.4
  1.2
  1.1
  1.0
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.7
  0.6
  0.6
  0.6
  0.5
  0.5
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.4
  0.4
  0.4
  0.4

Sientra, Inc. is a medical aesthetics company. The Company's primary products are silicone gel breast implants for use in breast augmentation and breast reconstruction procedures, which it offers in over 190 variations of shapes, sizes and textures. The Company sells its breast implants and breast tissue expanders, or breast products to plastic surgeons. Its breast implants are primarily used in elective procedures, which are generally performed on a cash-pay basis. TRUE Texture provides texturing on the implant shell that is designed to reduce the incidence of malposition, rotation and capsular contracture. The Company also offers breast tissue expanders and a range of other aesthetic and specialty products. The Company offers a range of HSC+ breast implants, including anatomically shaped textured, round textured and round smooth. The Company also offers miraDry system, the device to reduce underarm sweat, odor and permanently reduce hair of all colors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sientra (SIEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.3
Price to Sales 8.2
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -44.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -31.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.1%
Return On Total Capital -39.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -27%
Return On Equity -39.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.2%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.4%
EBITDA Margin -185.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -99.1%
Operating Margin -190.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -102.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -190.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -103.9%
Net Profit Margin -190.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -103.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SIEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $21 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sientra. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Sientra. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 42.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SIEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sientra, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sientra.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $42 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Sientra.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sientra. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIEN are equal to 23.8%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sientra operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIEN is equal to 23.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $84 million for Sientra - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.058 million for Sientra is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sientra at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Sientra, Inc. : December 7, 2017   [Dec-07-17 02:30PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Sientra reports 3Q loss   [Nov-07-17 05:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Sientra, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [10:10AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Sientra® to Release Third Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Nov-03-17 08:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sientra, Inc. : November 2, 2017   [Nov-02-17 12:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sientra, Inc. : October 16, 2017   [Oct-16-17 09:59AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sientra, Inc. : October 2, 2017   [Oct-02-17 11:06AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sientra, Inc. : September 19, 2017   [Sep-19-17 06:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Sientra reports 2Q loss   [Aug-09-17 04:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Sientra Announces Settlement of Lawsuit   [Aug-01-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Sientra Completes Acquisition of Miramar Labs®   [Jul-26-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Sientra to Acquire Miramar Labs®   [Jun-12-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sientra, Inc. : May 30, 2017   [May-30-17 12:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sientra, Inc. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Sientra reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sientra, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ FDA Links Breast Implants To A Rare Form Of Cancer   [Mar-21-17 05:26PM  Benzinga]
▶ Sientra reports 4Q loss   [Mar-14-17 04:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Sientra Inc (SIEN)   [Dec-14-16 12:54PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Sientra to Present at Investor Conferences in November 2016   [Nov-10-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of SIEN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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