Intrinsic value of Sify Technologies ADR - SIFY

Previous Close

$0.83

  Intrinsic Value

$0.33

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

  Value-price divergence*

+1782%

Previous close

$0.83

 
Intrinsic value

$0.33

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+1782%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIFY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.67
  30.00
  27.50
  25.25
  23.23
  21.40
  19.76
  18.29
  16.96
  15.76
  14.69
  13.72
  12.85
  12.06
  11.35
  10.72
  10.15
  9.63
  9.17
  8.75
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  6.99
  6.79
  6.62
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
Revenue, $m
  276
  359
  457
  573
  706
  857
  1,027
  1,214
  1,420
  1,644
  1,885
  2,144
  2,420
  2,711
  3,019
  3,343
  3,682
  4,037
  4,407
  4,793
  5,194
  5,612
  6,046
  6,497
  6,966
  7,453
  7,959
  8,486
  9,033
  9,603
  10,196
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  337
  429
  537
  662
  804
  963
  1,139
  1,332
  1,542
  1,769
  2,011
  2,270
  2,543
  2,832
  3,136
  3,454
  3,786
  4,134
  4,495
  4,872
  5,264
  5,671
  6,094
  6,534
  6,991
  7,466
  7,960
  8,473
  9,008
  9,564
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  262
  337
  429
  537
  662
  804
  963
  1,139
  1,332
  1,542
  1,769
  2,011
  2,270
  2,543
  2,832
  3,136
  3,454
  3,786
  4,134
  4,495
  4,872
  5,264
  5,671
  6,094
  6,534
  6,991
  7,466
  7,960
  8,473
  9,008
  9,564
Operating income, $m
  14
  22
  28
  36
  44
  53
  64
  75
  88
  102
  117
  133
  150
  168
  187
  207
  228
  250
  273
  297
  322
  348
  375
  403
  432
  462
  493
  526
  560
  595
  632
EBITDA, $m
  38
  35
  45
  56
  70
  85
  101
  120
  140
  162
  186
  211
  239
  267
  298
  330
  363
  398
  435
  473
  512
  553
  596
  641
  687
  735
  785
  837
  891
  947
  1,005
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  173
Earnings before tax, $m
  10
  21
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  60
  69
  79
  90
  102
  114
  127
  141
  155
  170
  186
  202
  220
  237
  256
  275
  295
  316
  337
  360
  383
  408
  433
  459
Tax expense, $m
  0
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
Net income, $m
  10
  15
  18
  22
  27
  32
  37
  44
  50
  58
  66
  74
  83
  93
  103
  113
  124
  136
  148
  160
  173
  187
  201
  215
  231
  246
  263
  280
  297
  316
  335

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  278
  334
  426
  534
  657
  798
  956
  1,131
  1,322
  1,531
  1,756
  1,996
  2,253
  2,525
  2,811
  3,113
  3,428
  3,759
  4,103
  4,462
  4,836
  5,225
  5,629
  6,049
  6,486
  6,939
  7,411
  7,901
  8,411
  8,942
  9,494
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  257
  334
  426
  534
  657
  798
  956
  1,131
  1,322
  1,531
  1,756
  1,996
  2,253
  2,525
  2,811
  3,113
  3,428
  3,759
  4,103
  4,462
  4,836
  5,225
  5,629
  6,049
  6,486
  6,939
  7,411
  7,901
  8,411
  8,942
  9,494
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.074
  1.075
  1.073
  1.073
  1.075
  1.074
  1.074
  1.073
  1.074
  1.074
  1.073
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
  1.074
Average production assets, $m
  101
  131
  167
  210
  258
  314
  376
  444
  520
  602
  690
  785
  886
  992
  1,105
  1,223
  1,348
  1,477
  1,613
  1,754
  1,901
  2,054
  2,213
  2,378
  2,549
  2,728
  2,913
  3,106
  3,306
  3,515
  3,732
Working capital, $m
  16
  55
  70
  87
  107
  130
  156
  185
  216
  250
  287
  326
  368
  412
  459
  508
  560
  614
  670
  728
  789
  853
  919
  988
  1,059
  1,133
  1,210
  1,290
  1,373
  1,460
  1,550
Total debt, $m
  68
  90
  142
  203
  273
  352
  441
  540
  648
  765
  892
  1,028
  1,173
  1,326
  1,488
  1,657
  1,836
  2,022
  2,216
  2,419
  2,630
  2,849
  3,077
  3,314
  3,560
  3,816
  4,082
  4,358
  4,646
  4,945
  5,257
Total liabilities, $m
  166
  188
  240
  301
  371
  450
  539
  638
  746
  863
  990
  1,126
  1,271
  1,424
  1,586
  1,755
  1,934
  2,120
  2,314
  2,517
  2,728
  2,947
  3,175
  3,412
  3,658
  3,914
  4,180
  4,456
  4,744
  5,043
  5,355
Total equity, $m
  112
  146
  186
  233
  287
  348
  417
  493
  577
  667
  765
  870
  982
  1,101
  1,226
  1,357
  1,495
  1,639
  1,789
  1,946
  2,109
  2,278
  2,454
  2,637
  2,828
  3,026
  3,231
  3,445
  3,667
  3,899
  4,139
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  278
  334
  426
  534
  658
  798
  956
  1,131
  1,323
  1,530
  1,755
  1,996
  2,253
  2,525
  2,812
  3,112
  3,429
  3,759
  4,103
  4,463
  4,837
  5,225
  5,629
  6,049
  6,486
  6,940
  7,411
  7,901
  8,411
  8,942
  9,494
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.607
  0.620
  0.770
  0.870
  0.950
  1.010
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.397
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  10
  15
  18
  22
  27
  32
  37
  44
  50
  58
  66
  74
  83
  93
  103
  113
  124
  136
  148
  160
  173
  187
  201
  215
  231
  246
  263
  280
  297
  316
  335
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  13
  17
  21
  26
  31
  38
  44
  52
  60
  69
  78
  89
  99
  111
  122
  135
  148
  161
  175
  190
  205
  221
  238
  255
  273
  291
  311
  331
  351
  373
Funds from operations, $m
  32
  28
  35
  43
  53
  63
  75
  88
  102
  118
  135
  153
  172
  192
  213
  236
  259
  284
  309
  336
  363
  392
  422
  453
  486
  519
  554
  590
  628
  667
  708
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
Cash from operations, $m
  37
  16
  20
  26
  32
  40
  49
  60
  71
  84
  98
  113
  130
  148
  166
  186
  208
  230
  253
  277
  302
  329
  356
  385
  414
  445
  477
  510
  545
  581
  618
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -31
  -38
  -44
  -52
  -60
  -69
  -78
  -89
  -99
  -111
  -122
  -135
  -148
  -161
  -175
  -190
  -205
  -221
  -238
  -255
  -273
  -291
  -311
  -331
  -351
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -200
  -209
  -217
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -23
  -40
  -49
  -59
  -70
  -81
  -93
  -107
  -119
  -134
  -148
  -164
  -179
  -196
  -212
  -229
  -246
  -265
  -283
  -302
  -322
  -343
  -364
  -386
  -410
  -433
  -458
  -484
  -511
  -540
  -568
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -49
  -48
  -45
  -43
  -39
  -35
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -14
  -8
  -2
  5
  12
  19
  26
  34
  42
  50
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  43
  52
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  108
  118
  127
  136
  145
  153
  162
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  276
  288
  299
  312
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  31
  33
  33
  33
  32
  31
  29
  26
  22
  18
  13
  8
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -6
  62
  74
  86
  97
  109
  120
  132
  141
  151
  159
  167
  174
  179
  184
  188
  191
  194
  196
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  276
  288
  299
  312
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  37
  44
  52
  60
  68
  76
  84
  93
  101
  109
  116
  124
  131
  138
  146
  153
  159
  166
  177
  191
  205
  220
  235
  251
  268
  285
  303
  321
  341
  361
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -241
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  21
  28
  36
  44
  52
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  110
  120
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.2
  80.4
  73.3
  67.5
  62.8
  58.9
  55.7
  53.1
  51.0
  49.3
  47.9
  46.7
  45.9
  45.2
  44.7
  44.4
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2
  44.2

Sify Technologies Limited provides integrated information and communications technology solutions and services in India and internationally. The company’s Telecom Services segment offers Internet protocol based virtual private network services, including intranets, extranets, and remote access applications; and last mile connectivity services. As of March 31, 2016, it provided data connectivity services to approximately 5,000 corporate clients in various industries. The company’s Data Centre Services segment provides co-location, regular backup, server load balancing, and remote backup solutions; messaging, shared hosting, network, and security services; storage and virtualization services; and managed voice services to resident enterprises. Its Cloud and Managed services segment offers on-demand hosting services; and remote and onsite infrastructure management services that manages and supports customer operating systems, applications, and database layers, as well as utility-based on-demand storage service that manages the lifecycle of enterprise information. The company’s Technology Integration Services segment provides data center build, network integration, information security, end user computing, and collaborative tools and solutions. Its Application Integration services segment offers a range of Web-applications; and operates online portals, including sify.com and samachar.com, which acts as principal entry points and gateway for accessing the Internet, as well as related content sites. In addition, it provides Website design, development, content management, online assessment tools, and search engine optimization services; messaging and collaboration solutions; on-line testing engine and network management services; and on-line exam engine solutions. The company was formerly known as Sify Limited and changed its name to Sify Technologies Limited in October 2007. Sify Technologies Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Chennai, India.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sify Technologies ADR (SIFY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.8
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 71.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 18.8%
Total Debt to Equity 60.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Operating Margin 5.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 30%

SIFY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIFY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $276 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sify Technologies ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Sify Technologies ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIFY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 30% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SIFY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sify Technologies ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sify Technologies ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIFY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIFY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Sify Technologies ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sify Technologies ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIFY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIFY are equal to 36.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sify Technologies ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIFY is equal to 15.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $112 million for Sify Technologies ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 184.562 million for Sify Technologies ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sify Technologies ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Sify reports revenues of INR 18432 million for FY 2016-17   [Apr-25-17 08:19AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 8 Stocks With Strong Yields but Falling Prices   [Feb-14-17 03:00PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Sify receives NASDAQ Staff Deficiency letter   [Jan-05-17 07:36AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Sify reports revenues of INR 15035 million for FY 2015-16   [Apr-22-16 08:38AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Industry Leading Suite of Security Challenges   [Mar-23-16 04:29AM  at noodls]
▶ Sify shareholders approve dividend payment of 10%   [Jun-19  01:56AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Sify reports revenues of INR 12864 million for FY 2014-15   [Apr-23  09:16AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 of Last Week's Biggest Losers   [Jan-26  05:31AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Sify Technologies Shares Plunged   [Oct-23  03:50PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of SIFY Financial statements of SIFY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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