Intrinsic value of Selective Insurance Group - SIGI

Previous Close

$60.75

  Intrinsic Value

$108.69

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+79%

Previous close

$60.75

 
Intrinsic value

$108.69

 
Up/down potential

+79%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SIGI.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.65
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  0
  2,447
  2,606
  2,773
  2,946
  3,126
  3,313
  3,509
  3,713
  3,926
  4,148
  4,380
  4,622
  4,876
  5,140
  5,417
  5,707
  6,011
  6,328
  6,661
  7,009
  7,374
  7,756
  8,157
  8,577
  9,018
  9,480
  9,964
  10,472
  11,005
  11,564
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,155
  2,296
  2,442
  2,595
  2,753
  2,919
  3,091
  3,271
  3,458
  3,654
  3,857
  4,071
  4,294
  4,527
  4,771
  5,026
  5,293
  5,573
  5,866
  6,173
  6,494
  6,831
  7,184
  7,554
  7,942
  8,348
  8,775
  9,222
  9,692
  10,184
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,050
  2,155
  2,296
  2,442
  2,595
  2,753
  2,919
  3,091
  3,271
  3,458
  3,654
  3,857
  4,071
  4,294
  4,527
  4,771
  5,026
  5,293
  5,573
  5,866
  6,173
  6,494
  6,831
  7,184
  7,554
  7,942
  8,348
  8,775
  9,222
  9,692
  10,184
Operating income, $m
  243
  291
  310
  330
  351
  372
  395
  418
  442
  468
  494
  523
  552
  582
  614
  647
  681
  717
  755
  795
  837
  880
  926
  974
  1,024
  1,076
  1,131
  1,189
  1,250
  1,313
  1,380
EBITDA, $m
  305
  306
  326
  347
  369
  391
  415
  439
  465
  491
  519
  548
  578
  610
  643
  678
  714
  752
  792
  834
  877
  923
  971
  1,021
  1,073
  1,129
  1,186
  1,247
  1,311
  1,377
  1,447
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  23
  44
  65
  88
  111
  135
  160
  187
  214
  243
  273
  304
  336
  370
  406
  443
  482
  523
  566
  611
  658
  707
  758
  812
  869
  928
  990
  1,055
  1,123
  1,195
Earnings before tax, $m
  220
  268
  267
  265
  263
  261
  260
  258
  256
  254
  252
  250
  248
  245
  243
  240
  238
  235
  232
  229
  226
  223
  219
  215
  212
  208
  204
  199
  195
  190
  185
Tax expense, $m
  61
  72
  72
  72
  71
  71
  70
  70
  69
  68
  68
  68
  67
  66
  66
  65
  64
  63
  63
  62
  61
  60
  59
  58
  57
  56
  55
  54
  53
  51
  50
Net income, $m
  159
  196
  195
  193
  192
  191
  189
  188
  187
  185
  184
  183
  181
  179
  177
  176
  174
  172
  169
  167
  165
  162
  160
  157
  155
  152
  149
  145
  142
  139
  135

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,356
  7,842
  8,354
  8,887
  9,441
  10,018
  10,620
  11,247
  11,901
  12,583
  13,295
  14,038
  14,815
  15,627
  16,476
  17,364
  18,293
  19,265
  20,283
  21,349
  22,465
  23,635
  24,860
  26,145
  27,492
  28,904
  30,384
  31,937
  33,565
  35,273
  37,065
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,356
  7,842
  8,354
  8,887
  9,441
  10,018
  10,620
  11,247
  11,901
  12,583
  13,295
  14,038
  14,815
  15,627
  16,476
  17,364
  18,293
  19,265
  20,283
  21,349
  22,465
  23,635
  24,860
  26,145
  27,492
  28,904
  30,384
  31,937
  33,565
  35,273
  37,065
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
Average production assets, $m
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  166
  174
  184
  193
  203
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  304
  319
  335
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  439
  825
  1,230
  1,652
  2,091
  2,549
  3,025
  3,521
  4,039
  4,579
  5,143
  5,732
  6,348
  6,991
  7,663
  8,366
  9,102
  9,872
  10,678
  11,522
  12,406
  13,333
  14,304
  15,321
  16,387
  17,506
  18,678
  19,908
  21,198
  22,550
  23,970
Total liabilities, $m
  5,824
  6,211
  6,616
  7,038
  7,477
  7,935
  8,411
  8,907
  9,425
  9,965
  10,529
  11,118
  11,734
  12,377
  13,049
  13,752
  14,488
  15,258
  16,064
  16,908
  17,792
  18,719
  19,690
  20,707
  21,773
  22,892
  24,064
  25,294
  26,584
  27,936
  29,356
Total equity, $m
  1,531
  1,631
  1,738
  1,848
  1,964
  2,084
  2,209
  2,339
  2,475
  2,617
  2,765
  2,920
  3,082
  3,250
  3,427
  3,612
  3,805
  4,007
  4,219
  4,441
  4,673
  4,916
  5,171
  5,438
  5,718
  6,012
  6,320
  6,643
  6,982
  7,337
  7,710
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,355
  7,842
  8,354
  8,886
  9,441
  10,019
  10,620
  11,246
  11,900
  12,582
  13,294
  14,038
  14,816
  15,627
  16,476
  17,364
  18,293
  19,265
  20,283
  21,349
  22,465
  23,635
  24,861
  26,145
  27,491
  28,904
  30,384
  31,937
  33,566
  35,273
  37,066
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.287
  0.510
  0.710
  0.890
  1.060
  1.220
  1.370
  1.510
  1.630
  1.750
  1.860
  1.960
  2.060
  2.150
  2.240
  2.320
  2.390
  2.460
  2.530
  2.590
  2.660
  2.710
  2.770
  2.820
  2.870
  2.910
  2.960
  3.000
  3.040
  3.070
  3.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  159
  196
  195
  193
  192
  191
  189
  188
  187
  185
  184
  183
  181
  179
  177
  176
  174
  172
  169
  167
  165
  162
  160
  157
  155
  152
  149
  145
  142
  139
  135
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  62
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
Funds from operations, $m
  270
  211
  211
  210
  210
  210
  210
  209
  209
  209
  208
  208
  208
  207
  207
  207
  207
  206
  206
  206
  206
  205
  205
  205
  204
  204
  204
  203
  203
  203
  202
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  302
  211
  211
  210
  210
  210
  210
  209
  209
  209
  208
  208
  208
  207
  207
  207
  207
  206
  206
  206
  206
  205
  205
  205
  204
  204
  204
  203
  203
  203
  202
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -318
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -63
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  193
  192
  190
  189
  187
  186
  184
  183
  181
  179
  177
  175
  173
  171
  169
  167
  164
  162
  159
  157
  154
  151
  148
  145
  141
  138
  134
  130
  126
  122
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  45
  386
  406
  422
  439
  457
  476
  497
  518
  540
  564
  589
  615
  643
  672
  703
  736
  770
  806
  844
  884
  926
  971
  1,017
  1,067
  1,118
  1,173
  1,230
  1,290
  1,353
  1,419
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  9
  20
  31
  42
  55
  67
  81
  95
  110
  126
  142
  159
  177
  197
  217
  238
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  50
  386
  406
  422
  439
  457
  476
  497
  518
  540
  564
  589
  615
  643
  672
  712
  756
  801
  848
  899
  951
  1,007
  1,066
  1,127
  1,193
  1,260
  1,332
  1,407
  1,487
  1,570
  1,657
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  579
  597
  612
  628
  645
  662
  681
  701
  721
  743
  766
  791
  816
  844
  881
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,058
  1,108
  1,161
  1,217
  1,275
  1,337
  1,402
  1,470
  1,541
  1,617
  1,696
  1,779
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -133
  -100
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -323
  -339
  -355
  -373
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  479
  491
  501
  513
  525
  537
  550
  565
  579
  595
  611
  629
  647
  667
  697
  729
  763
  799
  836
  876
  918
  962
  1,008
  1,057
  1,108
  1,162
  1,218
  1,278
  1,340
  1,406
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  459
  449
  436
  422
  407
  390
  372
  353
  333
  312
  290
  268
  246
  224
  205
  185
  166
  147
  129
  111
  95
  80
  66
  54
  43
  34
  26
  20
  15
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.6
  99.3
  98.9
  98.3
  97.7
  96.9
  96.1
  95.3
  94.3
  93.3
  92.3
  91.1
  90.0
  88.8
  87.6

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is a holding company. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 10 insurance subsidiaries, nine of which were licensed by various state departments of insurance to write specific lines of property and casualty insurance business. The remaining subsidiary is authorized by various state insurance departments to write property and casualty insurance in the excess and surplus lines (E&S) market. Its segments include Standard Commercial Lines, which consists of insurance products and services provided in the standard marketplace; Standard Personal Lines, which consists of insurance products and services, including flood insurance coverage that it writes through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); E&S Lines, which consists of insurance products and services provided to customers not obtaining coverage in the standard marketplace, and investment segment invests insurance premiums, as well as amounts generated through its capital management strategies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Selective Insurance Group (SIGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.1
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 28.7%
Total Debt to Equity 28.7%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 13.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Operating Margin 10.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Payout Ratio 21.4%

SIGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2293 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Selective Insurance Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Selective Insurance Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SIGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Selective Insurance Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Selective Insurance Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Selective Insurance Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Selective Insurance Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIGI are equal to 2.9%.

Life of production assets of 1.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Selective Insurance Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIGI is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1531 million for Selective Insurance Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.262 million for Selective Insurance Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Selective Insurance Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 6 Stocks Trading Below Peter Lynch Value   [02:56PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Selective Insurance Group Announces Officer Appointments   [Dec-15-17 02:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fed Hikes Rates: Top 5 Winners for 2018   [Dec-14-17 07:47AM  Zacks]
▶ Selective Appoints Thomas A. McCarthy as New Director   [Dec-13-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Selective Insurance posts 3Q profit   [Oct-25-17 07:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ IBD Rating Upgrades: Selective Insurance Shows Improved Technical Strength   [Sep-18-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Selective Insurance Group Announces Officer Appointments   [Aug-22-17 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Selective Insurance posts 2Q profit   [Jul-26-17 11:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Selective Insurance posts 2Q profit   [06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for May 8th   [May-08-17 10:52AM  Zacks]
▶ Selective Insurance posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 06:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Selective Insurance Group Announces Officer Appointments   [Mar-02-17 02:30PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of SIGI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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