Intrinsic value of Selective Insurance Group - SIGI

Previous Close

$58.90

  Intrinsic Value

$125.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+112%

Previous close

$58.90

 
Intrinsic value

$125.13

 
Up/down potential

+112%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SIGI.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.65
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  0
  2,483
  2,681
  2,887
  3,101
  3,323
  3,554
  3,794
  4,043
  4,303
  4,573
  4,854
  5,147
  5,453
  5,771
  6,103
  6,450
  6,812
  7,190
  7,585
  7,998
  8,430
  8,882
  9,355
  9,850
  10,369
  10,912
  11,481
  12,077
  12,701
  13,356
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,188
  2,362
  2,543
  2,731
  2,927
  3,130
  3,342
  3,562
  3,790
  4,028
  4,275
  4,533
  4,802
  5,082
  5,375
  5,680
  5,999
  6,332
  6,680
  7,044
  7,424
  7,822
  8,239
  8,675
  9,131
  9,609
  10,110
  10,635
  11,185
  11,762
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,050
  2,188
  2,362
  2,543
  2,731
  2,927
  3,130
  3,342
  3,562
  3,790
  4,028
  4,275
  4,533
  4,802
  5,082
  5,375
  5,680
  5,999
  6,332
  6,680
  7,044
  7,424
  7,822
  8,239
  8,675
  9,131
  9,609
  10,110
  10,635
  11,185
  11,762
Operating income, $m
  243
  296
  319
  344
  369
  396
  423
  452
  482
  513
  545
  579
  614
  651
  689
  728
  770
  813
  858
  905
  955
  1,006
  1,060
  1,117
  1,176
  1,237
  1,302
  1,370
  1,441
  1,516
  1,594
EBITDA, $m
  305
  311
  336
  361
  388
  416
  445
  475
  506
  539
  572
  608
  644
  682
  722
  764
  807
  853
  900
  949
  1,001
  1,055
  1,112
  1,171
  1,233
  1,298
  1,366
  1,437
  1,511
  1,590
  1,671
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  23
  49
  75
  103
  132
  162
  193
  225
  259
  293
  330
  368
  407
  448
  491
  536
  582
  631
  682
  735
  791
  849
  910
  973
  1,040
  1,110
  1,183
  1,259
  1,339
  1,423
Earnings before tax, $m
  220
  272
  271
  268
  266
  264
  262
  259
  257
  254
  252
  250
  247
  244
  241
  237
  234
  231
  227
  223
  220
  216
  211
  207
  202
  198
  193
  188
  182
  177
  171
Tax expense, $m
  61
  74
  73
  72
  72
  71
  71
  70
  69
  69
  68
  67
  67
  66
  65
  64
  63
  62
  61
  60
  59
  58
  57
  56
  55
  53
  52
  51
  49
  48
  46
Net income, $m
  159
  199
  198
  196
  194
  193
  191
  189
  187
  186
  184
  182
  180
  178
  176
  173
  171
  168
  166
  163
  160
  157
  154
  151
  148
  144
  141
  137
  133
  129
  125

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,356
  7,959
  8,594
  9,253
  9,938
  10,650
  11,391
  12,160
  12,960
  13,792
  14,658
  15,559
  16,498
  17,477
  18,498
  19,562
  20,673
  21,833
  23,045
  24,311
  25,635
  27,020
  28,468
  29,984
  31,571
  33,233
  34,973
  36,797
  38,707
  40,709
  42,808
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,356
  7,959
  8,594
  9,253
  9,938
  10,650
  11,391
  12,160
  12,960
  13,792
  14,658
  15,559
  16,498
  17,477
  18,498
  19,562
  20,673
  21,833
  23,045
  24,311
  25,635
  27,020
  28,468
  29,984
  31,571
  33,233
  34,973
  36,797
  38,707
  40,709
  42,808
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
Average production assets, $m
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  258
  271
  286
  301
  316
  333
  350
  368
  387
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  439
  918
  1,420
  1,942
  2,485
  3,049
  3,635
  4,245
  4,878
  5,537
  6,223
  6,937
  7,681
  8,456
  9,264
  10,107
  10,987
  11,906
  12,866
  13,869
  14,917
  16,014
  17,161
  18,362
  19,618
  20,934
  22,313
  23,757
  25,270
  26,856
  28,518
Total liabilities, $m
  5,824
  6,304
  6,806
  7,328
  7,871
  8,435
  9,021
  9,631
  10,264
  10,923
  11,609
  12,323
  13,067
  13,842
  14,650
  15,493
  16,373
  17,292
  18,252
  19,255
  20,303
  21,400
  22,547
  23,748
  25,004
  26,320
  27,699
  29,143
  30,656
  32,242
  33,904
Total equity, $m
  1,531
  1,656
  1,787
  1,925
  2,067
  2,215
  2,369
  2,529
  2,696
  2,869
  3,049
  3,236
  3,432
  3,635
  3,847
  4,069
  4,300
  4,541
  4,793
  5,057
  5,332
  5,620
  5,921
  6,237
  6,567
  6,912
  7,274
  7,654
  8,051
  8,468
  8,904
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,355
  7,960
  8,593
  9,253
  9,938
  10,650
  11,390
  12,160
  12,960
  13,792
  14,658
  15,559
  16,499
  17,477
  18,497
  19,562
  20,673
  21,833
  23,045
  24,312
  25,635
  27,020
  28,468
  29,985
  31,571
  33,232
  34,973
  36,797
  38,707
  40,710
  42,808
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.287
  0.550
  0.790
  1.010
  1.200
  1.380
  1.530
  1.680
  1.810
  1.930
  2.040
  2.140
  2.240
  2.330
  2.410
  2.480
  2.560
  2.620
  2.680
  2.740
  2.800
  2.850
  2.900
  2.940
  2.990
  3.030
  3.070
  3.100
  3.140
  3.170
  3.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  159
  199
  198
  196
  194
  193
  191
  189
  187
  186
  184
  182
  180
  178
  176
  173
  171
  168
  166
  163
  160
  157
  154
  151
  148
  144
  141
  137
  133
  129
  125
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  62
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
Funds from operations, $m
  270
  214
  214
  214
  213
  213
  212
  212
  212
  211
  211
  210
  210
  210
  209
  209
  208
  208
  207
  207
  207
  206
  206
  205
  205
  204
  204
  204
  203
  203
  202
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  302
  214
  214
  214
  213
  213
  212
  212
  212
  211
  211
  210
  210
  210
  209
  209
  208
  208
  207
  207
  207
  206
  206
  205
  205
  204
  204
  204
  203
  203
  202
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -318
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  196
  194
  192
  190
  188
  187
  185
  182
  180
  178
  176
  173
  171
  168
  166
  163
  160
  157
  154
  151
  147
  144
  140
  136
  132
  128
  124
  119
  114
  109
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  45
  479
  502
  522
  543
  564
  586
  609
  634
  659
  686
  714
  744
  775
  808
  843
  880
  919
  960
  1,003
  1,049
  1,097
  1,147
  1,201
  1,257
  1,316
  1,378
  1,444
  1,513
  1,586
  1,662
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  5
  15
  26
  37
  48
  60
  73
  86
  100
  115
  131
  147
  164
  182
  201
  221
  242
  264
  288
  312
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  50
  479
  502
  522
  543
  564
  586
  609
  634
  659
  686
  719
  759
  801
  845
  891
  940
  992
  1,046
  1,103
  1,164
  1,228
  1,294
  1,365
  1,439
  1,517
  1,599
  1,686
  1,777
  1,874
  1,974
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  674
  696
  714
  733
  752
  773
  794
  816
  839
  864
  895
  932
  972
  1,013
  1,057
  1,103
  1,152
  1,203
  1,257
  1,314
  1,375
  1,438
  1,505
  1,575
  1,650
  1,728
  1,810
  1,897
  1,988
  2,084
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -133
  -125
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -195
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -252
  -263
  -275
  -288
  -301
  -315
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -379
  -397
  -416
  -437
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  550
  564
  577
  590
  604
  619
  634
  650
  666
  684
  707
  737
  768
  801
  835
  872
  910
  951
  994
  1,039
  1,087
  1,137
  1,190
  1,245
  1,304
  1,366
  1,431
  1,499
  1,571
  1,647
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  527
  516
  502
  486
  468
  449
  428
  406
  383
  359
  336
  314
  292
  269
  245
  222
  198
  175
  153
  132
  112
  94
  78
  63
  51
  40
  31
  23
  17
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.7
  99.4
  98.9
  98.4
  97.7
  97.0
  96.2
  95.3
  94.4
  93.3
  92.3
  91.1
  90.0
  88.8
  87.5
  86.2
  84.9
  83.6
  82.3

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is a holding company. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 10 insurance subsidiaries, nine of which were licensed by various state departments of insurance to write specific lines of property and casualty insurance business. The remaining subsidiary is authorized by various state insurance departments to write property and casualty insurance in the excess and surplus lines (E&S) market. Its segments include Standard Commercial Lines, which consists of insurance products and services provided in the standard marketplace; Standard Personal Lines, which consists of insurance products and services, including flood insurance coverage that it writes through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); E&S Lines, which consists of insurance products and services provided to customers not obtaining coverage in the standard marketplace, and investment segment invests insurance premiums, as well as amounts generated through its capital management strategies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Selective Insurance Group (SIGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.5
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 12
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 28.7%
Total Debt to Equity 28.7%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 13.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Operating Margin 10.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Payout Ratio 21.4%

SIGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2293 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Selective Insurance Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Selective Insurance Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SIGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Selective Insurance Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Selective Insurance Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Selective Insurance Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Selective Insurance Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIGI are equal to 2.9%.

Life of production assets of 1.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Selective Insurance Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIGI is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1531 million for Selective Insurance Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.423 million for Selective Insurance Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Selective Insurance Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Selective Insurance posts 3Q profit   [Oct-25-17 07:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ IBD Rating Upgrades: Selective Insurance Shows Improved Technical Strength   [Sep-18-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Selective Insurance Group Announces Officer Appointments   [Aug-22-17 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Selective Insurance posts 2Q profit   [Jul-26-17 11:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Selective Insurance posts 2Q profit   [06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for May 8th   [May-08-17 10:52AM  Zacks]
▶ Selective Insurance posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 06:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Selective Insurance Group Announces Officer Appointments   [Mar-02-17 02:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Selective Insurance Group Announces Officer Appointments   [Nov-21-16 02:00PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of SIGI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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