Intrinsic value of Selective Insurance Group - SIGI

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$46.25

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$46.25

 
Intrinsic value

$95.83

 
Up/down potential

+107%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SIGI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.65
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  0
  2,417
  2,546
  2,682
  2,824
  2,972
  3,128
  3,291
  3,462
  3,641
  3,829
  4,026
  4,232
  4,448
  4,675
  4,913
  5,163
  5,425
  5,700
  5,988
  6,291
  6,608
  6,942
  7,292
  7,659
  8,044
  8,449
  8,873
  9,319
  9,787
  10,278
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,129
  2,243
  2,363
  2,488
  2,618
  2,756
  2,899
  3,050
  3,207
  3,373
  3,545
  3,727
  3,917
  4,117
  4,327
  4,547
  4,777
  5,019
  5,273
  5,540
  5,820
  6,113
  6,421
  6,745
  7,084
  7,440
  7,814
  8,207
  8,619
  9,051
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,050
  2,129
  2,243
  2,363
  2,488
  2,618
  2,756
  2,899
  3,050
  3,207
  3,373
  3,545
  3,727
  3,917
  4,117
  4,327
  4,547
  4,777
  5,019
  5,273
  5,540
  5,820
  6,113
  6,421
  6,745
  7,084
  7,440
  7,814
  8,207
  8,619
  9,051
Operating income, $m
  243
  288
  303
  319
  336
  354
  373
  392
  412
  434
  456
  480
  505
  531
  558
  586
  616
  647
  680
  715
  751
  789
  828
  870
  914
  960
  1,008
  1,059
  1,112
  1,168
  1,227
EBITDA, $m
  305
  302
  319
  336
  353
  372
  391
  412
  433
  456
  479
  504
  530
  557
  585
  615
  646
  679
  713
  749
  787
  827
  869
  913
  958
  1,007
  1,057
  1,110
  1,166
  1,225
  1,286
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  23
  40
  57
  75
  94
  114
  135
  157
  180
  204
  230
  256
  284
  313
  344
  376
  409
  444
  481
  520
  561
  604
  648
  696
  745
  797
  851
  908
  968
  1,031
Earnings before tax, $m
  220
  264
  263
  262
  261
  260
  258
  257
  255
  253
  252
  251
  249
  247
  245
  243
  241
  238
  236
  233
  231
  228
  225
  222
  219
  215
  212
  208
  204
  200
  195
Tax expense, $m
  61
  71
  71
  71
  70
  70
  70
  69
  69
  68
  68
  68
  67
  67
  66
  66
  65
  64
  64
  63
  62
  62
  61
  60
  59
  58
  57
  56
  55
  54
  53
Net income, $m
  159
  193
  192
  191
  190
  189
  188
  187
  186
  185
  184
  183
  182
  180
  179
  177
  176
  174
  172
  170
  168
  166
  164
  162
  160
  157
  154
  152
  149
  146
  143

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,356
  7,746
  8,161
  8,596
  9,051
  9,527
  10,026
  10,549
  11,096
  11,670
  12,272
  12,902
  13,564
  14,257
  14,985
  15,747
  16,548
  17,387
  18,268
  19,193
  20,163
  21,181
  22,249
  23,370
  24,547
  25,782
  27,079
  28,440
  29,868
  31,368
  32,942
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,356
  7,746
  8,161
  8,596
  9,051
  9,527
  10,026
  10,549
  11,096
  11,670
  12,272
  12,902
  13,564
  14,257
  14,985
  15,747
  16,548
  17,387
  18,268
  19,193
  20,163
  21,181
  22,249
  23,370
  24,547
  25,782
  27,079
  28,440
  29,868
  31,368
  32,942
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
Average production assets, $m
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  142
  150
  157
  165
  174
  182
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  439
  749
  1,078
  1,422
  1,782
  2,159
  2,555
  2,968
  3,402
  3,857
  4,333
  4,833
  5,356
  5,906
  6,482
  7,086
  7,720
  8,385
  9,083
  9,815
  10,583
  11,389
  12,235
  13,123
  14,055
  15,034
  16,060
  17,138
  18,270
  19,458
  20,704
Total liabilities, $m
  5,824
  6,135
  6,464
  6,808
  7,168
  7,545
  7,941
  8,354
  8,788
  9,243
  9,719
  10,219
  10,742
  11,292
  11,868
  12,472
  13,106
  13,771
  14,469
  15,201
  15,969
  16,775
  17,621
  18,509
  19,441
  20,420
  21,446
  22,524
  23,656
  24,844
  26,090
Total equity, $m
  1,531
  1,611
  1,698
  1,788
  1,883
  1,982
  2,085
  2,194
  2,308
  2,427
  2,553
  2,684
  2,821
  2,965
  3,117
  3,275
  3,442
  3,617
  3,800
  3,992
  4,194
  4,406
  4,628
  4,861
  5,106
  5,363
  5,632
  5,915
  6,213
  6,525
  6,852
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,355
  7,746
  8,162
  8,596
  9,051
  9,527
  10,026
  10,548
  11,096
  11,670
  12,272
  12,903
  13,563
  14,257
  14,985
  15,747
  16,548
  17,388
  18,269
  19,193
  20,163
  21,181
  22,249
  23,370
  24,547
  25,783
  27,078
  28,439
  29,869
  31,369
  32,942
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.287
  0.460
  0.630
  0.800
  0.950
  1.090
  1.220
  1.350
  1.470
  1.590
  1.700
  1.800
  1.900
  1.990
  2.080
  2.160
  2.240
  2.320
  2.390
  2.460
  2.520
  2.590
  2.640
  2.700
  2.750
  2.800
  2.850
  2.900
  2.940
  2.980
  3.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208
  0.208

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  159
  193
  192
  191
  190
  189
  188
  187
  186
  185
  184
  183
  182
  180
  179
  177
  176
  174
  172
  170
  168
  166
  164
  162
  160
  157
  154
  152
  149
  146
  143
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  62
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
Funds from operations, $m
  270
  208
  208
  208
  208
  207
  207
  207
  207
  207
  207
  206
  206
  206
  206
  206
  206
  205
  205
  205
  205
  205
  204
  204
  204
  204
  203
  203
  203
  203
  202
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  302
  210
  208
  208
  208
  207
  207
  207
  207
  207
  207
  206
  206
  206
  206
  206
  206
  205
  205
  205
  205
  205
  204
  204
  204
  204
  203
  203
  203
  203
  202
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -318
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  193
  190
  189
  188
  187
  186
  184
  183
  182
  180
  179
  177
  175
  174
  172
  170
  168
  166
  164
  161
  159
  156
  154
  151
  148
  145
  142
  138
  135
  131
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  45
  310
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
  476
  500
  524
  549
  576
  604
  634
  665
  698
  732
  768
  806
  846
  888
  932
  978
  1,027
  1,078
  1,131
  1,188
  1,247
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  50
  310
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
  476
  500
  524
  549
  576
  604
  634
  665
  698
  732
  768
  806
  846
  888
  932
  978
  1,027
  1,078
  1,131
  1,188
  1,247
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  503
  519
  533
  548
  564
  581
  598
  617
  636
  657
  678
  701
  725
  750
  776
  804
  833
  864
  896
  930
  965
  1,003
  1,042
  1,083
  1,126
  1,172
  1,220
  1,270
  1,323
  1,378
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -133
  -80
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -312
  -327
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  423
  433
  443
  454
  465
  477
  490
  503
  517
  532
  547
  563
  580
  598
  617
  637
  658
  680
  703
  728
  753
  780
  809
  838
  869
  902
  937
  973
  1,011
  1,051
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  406
  396
  385
  373
  360
  346
  331
  314
  297
  279
  260
  240
  221
  201
  181
  162
  143
  125
  108
  92
  78
  65
  53
  43
  34
  26
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Selective Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services in the United States. It operates in four segments: Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, Excess and Surplus (E&S) Lines, and Investments. The company’s products and services include property insurance, which covers the financial consequences of accidental loss of an insured’s real and/or personal property; and casualty insurance that covers the financial consequences of employee injuries in the course of employment, and bodily injury and/or property damage to a third party as a result of an insured’s negligent acts, omissions, or legal liabilities. Its products and services also comprise flood insurance, which covers property losses. The company offers its insurance products and services to businesses, non-profit organizations, local government agencies, and individuals through independent retail insurance agents and brokers, and wholesale general agents. In addition, it invests in the premiums collected by Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, and E&S Lines segments on fixed income investments, equity securities, and alternative investment portfolio. Selective Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Branchville, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Selective Insurance Group (SIGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.9
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 28.7%
Total Debt to Equity 28.7%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 8.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 13.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Operating Margin 10.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Payout Ratio 21.4%

SIGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2293 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Selective Insurance Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Selective Insurance Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SIGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Selective Insurance Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Selective Insurance Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Selective Insurance Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Selective Insurance Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIGI are equal to 2.9%.

Life of production assets of 1.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Selective Insurance Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIGI is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1531 million for Selective Insurance Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.333 million for Selective Insurance Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Selective Insurance Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for May 8th   [May-08-17 10:52AM  Zacks]
▶ Selective Insurance posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 06:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Selective Insurance Group Announces Officer Appointments   [Mar-02-17 02:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Selective Insurance Group Announces Officer Appointments   [Nov-21-16 02:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Selective Insurance Group Announces Officer Appointments   [Aug-10-16 10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Selective Shines Spotlight on Personal Lines Coverage   [Jun-29-16 03:02PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Selective Adds New Watercraft Coverage Enhancements   [Jun-22-16 03:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Selective Insurance Group Announces Officer Appointments   [Jun-14-16 02:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Selective Insurance posts 1Q profit   [May-04-16 07:24PM  AP]
Stock chart of SIGI Financial statements of SIGI Annual reports of SIGI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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