Intrinsic value of Silicon Motion Technology ADR - SIMO

Previous Close

$52.24

  Intrinsic Value

$46.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-10%

Previous close

$52.24

 
Intrinsic value

$46.91

 
Up/down potential

-10%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIMO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  54.02
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  556
  567
  580
  595
  612
  630
  651
  673
  697
  723
  750
  780
  812
  845
  881
  919
  960
  1,002
  1,047
  1,095
  1,145
  1,198
  1,254
  1,313
  1,376
  1,441
  1,510
  1,583
  1,659
  1,739
  1,824
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  389
  398
  408
  420
  432
  446
  461
  477
  494
  513
  526
  548
  570
  595
  620
  647
  676
  707
  739
  773
  808
  846
  886
  928
  972
  1,019
  1,068
  1,119
  1,173
  1,230
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
Total operating expenses, $m
  419
  428
  438
  449
  462
  475
  490
  506
  523
  541
  562
  576
  599
  622
  649
  675
  703
  734
  766
  800
  835
  872
  911
  953
  997
  1,042
  1,091
  1,142
  1,195
  1,251
  1,310
Operating income, $m
  137
  139
  142
  146
  150
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  282
  296
  310
  326
  343
  360
  379
  398
  419
  441
  464
  488
  514
EBITDA, $m
  148
  154
  157
  161
  166
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  270
  283
  297
  311
  327
  343
  361
  379
  399
  419
  441
  464
  488
  513
  540
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  139
  139
  142
  146
  150
  155
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  202
  211
  221
  231
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  306
  321
  337
  354
  372
  391
  411
  433
  455
  479
  503
Tax expense, $m
  28
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
Net income, $m
  111
  101
  104
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  300
  316
  332
  349
  368

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  278
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  606
  335
  342
  351
  361
  372
  384
  397
  411
  426
  443
  460
  479
  499
  520
  542
  566
  591
  618
  646
  676
  707
  740
  775
  812
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,076
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  328
  335
  342
  351
  361
  372
  384
  397
  411
  426
  443
  460
  479
  499
  520
  542
  566
  591
  618
  646
  676
  707
  740
  775
  812
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,076
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.695
  1.693
  1.696
  1.695
  1.695
  1.694
  1.695
  1.695
  1.696
  1.697
  1.693
  1.696
  1.695
  1.693
  1.694
  1.696
  1.696
  1.695
  1.694
  1.695
  1.694
  1.694
  1.695
  1.694
  1.695
  1.695
  1.695
  1.695
  1.695
  1.695
  1.695
Average production assets, $m
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  245
  256
  269
  282
  295
Working capital, $m
  331
  79
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  211
  222
  232
  244
  255
Total debt, $m
  25
  3
  6
  10
  14
  19
  24
  29
  35
  42
  48
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  100
  111
  122
  134
  146
  160
  174
  188
  204
  220
  237
  255
  274
  294
  315
Total liabilities, $m
  163
  141
  144
  148
  152
  157
  162
  167
  173
  180
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  298
  312
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
  453
Total equity, $m
  443
  194
  198
  203
  209
  215
  222
  230
  238
  247
  256
  266
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  342
  358
  374
  391
  409
  428
  449
  470
  492
  516
  541
  567
  594
  623
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  606
  335
  342
  351
  361
  372
  384
  397
  411
  427
  442
  460
  479
  499
  520
  542
  566
  591
  618
  646
  675
  707
  740
  775
  812
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,076
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.056
  0.010
  0.030
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  111
  101
  104
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  300
  316
  332
  349
  368
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  115
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  240
  252
  264
  277
  292
  306
  322
  339
  356
  374
  394
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  126
  115
  117
  120
  123
  126
  130
  135
  139
  145
  150
  155
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  211
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  328
  345
  363
  382
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Free cash flow, $m
  118
  105
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  281
  295
  310
  326
  343
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  25
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  25
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  142
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
  329
  346
  364
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -98
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  253
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  357
  105
  108
  110
  113
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  186
  195
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  303
  319
  335
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  342
  97
  94
  91
  87
  84
  81
  77
  74
  70
  65
  61
  56
  52
  47
  43
  39
  34
  30
  26
  22
  19
  15
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Silicon Motion Technology Corporation is a fabless semiconductor company. The Company designs, develops and markets low-power semiconductor solutions to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and other customers in the mobile storage and mobile communications markets. It is engaged in developing negative-AND (NAND) flash controller integrated circuits (ICs) for solid-state storage devices and specialty radio frequency (RF) ICs for mobile devices. In the mobile storage market, the Company's products are controllers used in embedded storage products, such as Solid State Drives (SSDs), and Embedded Multimedia Cards (eMMCs), as well as expandable storage products, such as flash memory cards and universal serial bus (USB) flash drives. For the mobile communications market, the Company's products are handset transceivers and mobile television (TV) System on Chips (SoCs). The Company's products are used in devices, such as smartphones, tablets and personal computers (PCs).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Silicon Motion Technology ADR (SIMO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 66.5
Price to Sales 13.3
Price to Book 16.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 58.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 58.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 54%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 5.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Return On Total Capital 27.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Return On Equity 28.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.9%
EBITDA Margin 27%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
Operating Margin 24.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Pre-Tax Margin 25%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Net Profit Margin 20%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Effective Tax Rate 20.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Payout Ratio 20.7%

SIMO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIMO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $556 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Silicon Motion Technology ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Silicon Motion Technology ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIMO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SIMO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Silicon Motion Technology ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Silicon Motion Technology ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIMO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $38 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIMO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Silicon Motion Technology ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Silicon Motion Technology ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIMO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIMO are equal to 16.2%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Silicon Motion Technology ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIMO is equal to 14%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $443 million for Silicon Motion Technology ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.342 million for Silicon Motion Technology ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Silicon Motion Technology ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Silicon Motion Technology   [Dec-05-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Silicon Motion meets 3Q profit forecasts   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Silicon Motion Announces 50% Annual Dividend Increase   [Oct-24-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 1 Thing That's Hurting Silicon Motion Technology Stock   [Aug-11-17 08:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Silicon Motion misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-31-17 11:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Silicon Motion Confirms Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-28-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [Jul-07-17 01:19PM  Briefing.com]
▶ Build Your Investing Watch List With Stock Ratings, Buy Zones, Earnings   [May-31-17 07:57PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Chip Stocks And Semiconductor Industry News   [01:07PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ As Nvidia Zooms Higher, This Chip Stock Tests New Buy Zone   [01:06PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Which Stocks Are Showing Rising Relative Strength?   [May-23-17 11:15AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Can This Chip Stock Join Nvidia, Maxlinear And Break Out?   [11:14AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Qualcomm Gets More Price-Target Cuts; Silicon Motion, Ichor Hiked   [May-01-17 04:42PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Silicon Motion tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-28-17 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Silicon Motion Confirms Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-24-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Silicon Motion Breaking Out of Multiple Basing Patterns   [Mar-23-17 06:59AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Analog Devices Stock Gets Price-Target Hikes Ahead Of Deal Closing   [Mar-07-17 04:21PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Silicon Motion's Pain Is Micron Technology's Gain   [Feb-01-17 01:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Silicon Motion Confirms Quarterly Dividend   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Shannon Launches Worlds First 12.8TB PCIe SSD   [Dec-13-16 11:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Innocoll Holdings PLC (INNL)?   [Dec-12-16 06:19PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of SIMO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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