Intrinsic value of Sino-Global Shipping America - SINO

Previous Close

$2.87

  Intrinsic Value

$0.50

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

Previous close

$2.87

 
Intrinsic value

$0.50

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SINO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  57.14
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  11
  18
  27
  41
  59
  83
  114
  154
  202
  260
  328
  407
  498
  600
  714
  839
  976
  1,125
  1,284
  1,454
  1,635
  1,826
  2,027
  2,238
  2,459
  2,690
  2,931
  3,182
  3,442
  3,714
  3,996
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  35
  52
  75
  106
  146
  196
  257
  330
  417
  518
  634
  764
  909
  1,068
  1,243
  1,432
  1,634
  1,851
  2,081
  2,324
  2,581
  2,849
  3,131
  3,425
  3,731
  4,050
  4,382
  4,728
  5,086
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8
  22
  35
  52
  75
  106
  146
  196
  257
  330
  417
  518
  634
  764
  909
  1,068
  1,243
  1,432
  1,634
  1,851
  2,081
  2,324
  2,581
  2,849
  3,131
  3,425
  3,731
  4,050
  4,382
  4,728
  5,086
Operating income, $m
  3
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -71
  -89
  -111
  -136
  -164
  -195
  -229
  -267
  -307
  -351
  -397
  -446
  -498
  -553
  -611
  -671
  -734
  -800
  -869
  -940
  -1,014
  -1,091
EBITDA, $m
  3
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -71
  -89
  -111
  -136
  -164
  -195
  -229
  -267
  -307
  -351
  -397
  -446
  -498
  -553
  -611
  -671
  -734
  -800
  -869
  -940
  -1,014
  -1,091
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -22
  -31
  -41
  -54
  -70
  -88
  -109
  -133
  -161
  -191
  -225
  -261
  -301
  -343
  -389
  -437
  -488
  -542
  -598
  -657
  -719
  -783
  -850
  -920
  -992
  -1,067
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  4
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -22
  -31
  -41
  -54
  -70
  -88
  -109
  -133
  -161
  -191
  -225
  -261
  -301
  -343
  -389
  -437
  -488
  -542
  -598
  -657
  -719
  -783
  -850
  -920
  -992
  -1,067

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  18
  14
  22
  33
  48
  68
  94
  126
  165
  212
  268
  333
  407
  491
  584
  687
  799
  920
  1,051
  1,190
  1,338
  1,494
  1,659
  1,832
  2,013
  2,201
  2,398
  2,604
  2,817
  3,039
  3,270
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9
  14
  22
  33
  48
  68
  94
  126
  165
  212
  268
  333
  407
  491
  584
  687
  799
  920
  1,051
  1,190
  1,338
  1,494
  1,659
  1,832
  2,013
  2,201
  2,398
  2,604
  2,817
  3,039
  3,270
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.222
  1.286
  1.227
  1.242
  1.229
  1.221
  1.213
  1.222
  1.224
  1.226
  1.224
  1.222
  1.224
  1.222
  1.223
  1.221
  1.222
  1.223
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  14
  8
  12
  19
  27
  38
  52
  70
  92
  118
  149
  185
  226
  273
  325
  382
  444
  512
  584
  662
  744
  831
  922
  1,018
  1,119
  1,224
  1,334
  1,448
  1,566
  1,690
  1,818
Total debt, $m
  0
  -1
  -3
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -19
  -26
  -35
  -45
  -58
  -72
  -88
  -107
  -128
  -150
  -175
  -202
  -231
  -262
  -295
  -330
  -366
  -405
  -445
  -487
  -530
  -576
  -623
  -673
  -724
Total liabilities, $m
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -15
  -21
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -60
  -74
  -90
  -109
  -130
  -152
  -177
  -204
  -233
  -264
  -297
  -332
  -368
  -407
  -447
  -489
  -532
  -578
  -625
  -675
  -726
Total equity, $m
  20
  18
  27
  41
  59
  83
  114
  154
  202
  260
  328
  407
  498
  600
  714
  839
  976
  1,125
  1,284
  1,454
  1,635
  1,826
  2,027
  2,238
  2,459
  2,690
  2,931
  3,182
  3,442
  3,714
  3,996
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  18
  15
  22
  34
  48
  68
  93
  126
  165
  213
  268
  333
  408
  491
  584
  687
  799
  921
  1,051
  1,190
  1,338
  1,494
  1,659
  1,831
  2,012
  2,201
  2,399
  2,604
  2,817
  3,039
  3,270
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.070
  -0.110
  -0.130
  -0.150
  -0.160
  -0.160
  -0.170
  -0.170
  -0.170
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
  -0.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222
  1.222

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -22
  -31
  -41
  -54
  -70
  -88
  -109
  -133
  -161
  -191
  -225
  -261
  -301
  -343
  -389
  -437
  -488
  -542
  -598
  -657
  -719
  -783
  -850
  -920
  -992
  -1,067
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -22
  -31
  -41
  -54
  -70
  -88
  -109
  -133
  -161
  -191
  -225
  -261
  -301
  -343
  -389
  -437
  -488
  -542
  -598
  -657
  -719
  -783
  -850
  -920
  -992
  -1,067
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  -8
  -12
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -45
  -59
  -76
  -96
  -119
  -145
  -175
  -207
  -243
  -282
  -324
  -368
  -416
  -466
  -519
  -575
  -633
  -694
  -758
  -824
  -893
  -964
  -1,038
  -1,115
  -1,196
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  -8
  -12
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -45
  -59
  -76
  -96
  -119
  -145
  -175
  -207
  -243
  -282
  -324
  -368
  -416
  -466
  -519
  -575
  -633
  -694
  -758
  -824
  -893
  -964
  -1,038
  -1,115
  -1,196
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  11
  17
  24
  34
  47
  62
  80
  102
  127
  156
  188
  224
  263
  305
  350
  398
  449
  503
  559
  618
  679
  743
  809
  878
  950
  1,024
  1,101
  1,180
  1,263
  1,349
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  10
  15
  22
  31
  43
  56
  73
  93
  116
  144
  174
  208
  244
  284
  327
  373
  422
  474
  528
  585
  644
  706
  771
  838
  908
  980
  1,055
  1,133
  1,214
  1,298
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  102
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -11
  -17
  -24
  -34
  -47
  -62
  -80
  -102
  -127
  -156
  -188
  -224
  -263
  -305
  -350
  -398
  -449
  -503
  -559
  -618
  -679
  -743
  -809
  -878
  -950
  -1,024
  -1,101
  -1,180
  -1,263
  -1,349
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  -13
  -20
  -28
  -38
  -51
  -66
  -85
  -106
  -131
  -160
  -191
  -226
  -264
  -305
  -348
  -395
  -445
  -497
  -552
  -610
  -670
  -733
  -798
  -866
  -936
  -1,010
  -1,086
  -1,165
  -1,247
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  -12
  -17
  -23
  -29
  -37
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -76
  -82
  -86
  -88
  -89
  -89
  -86
  -82
  -77
  -70
  -63
  -56
  -48
  -41
  -34
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -13
  -9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  58.3
  35.0
  21.6
  13.7
  8.8
  5.8
  3.9
  2.7
  1.9
  1.3
  1.0
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Sino-Global Shipping America, Ltd. is a non-asset-based global shipping and freight logistic integrated solution provider. The Company provides solutions and value added services to its customers in the shipping and freight logistic chain sector. The Company's segments include Shipping Agency and Ship Management Services; Shipping & Chartering Services, and Inland Transportation Management Services. The Company conducts its business primarily through its subsidiaries in China (including Hong Kong), Australia, Canada, and the United States (New York and Los Angeles). The Company provides its shipping agency services in the People's Republic of China through Sino-Global Shipping Agency Ltd. (Sino-China), which holds the licenses and permits to operate local shipping agency services in the People's Republic of China. The Company's inland transportation management services are operated by its subsidiaries in China (including Hong Kong) and the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sino-Global Shipping America (SINO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.3
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 57.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 29.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 25.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 25.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.4%
EBITDA Margin 27.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Operating Margin 27.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 27.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Net Profit Margin 36.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Effective Tax Rate -33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SINO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SINO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sino-Global Shipping America. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Sino-Global Shipping America. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SINO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SINO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sino-Global Shipping America, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sino-Global Shipping America.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SINO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 127.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SINO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Sino-Global Shipping America.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sino-Global Shipping America. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SINO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SINO are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sino-Global Shipping America operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SINO is equal to 45.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $20 million for Sino-Global Shipping America - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.105 million for Sino-Global Shipping America is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sino-Global Shipping America at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ When Should You Buy Sino-Global Shipping America Ltd (SINO)?   [Oct-05-17 03:46PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Sino-Global Announces 2017 Year End Financial Results   [Sep-27-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Stock Picks Are Hard to Find as Small-Caps Struggle   [Jan-09-17 10:47AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Sino-Global Launches Full Service Logistic Website   [Dec-22-16 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Shipping Into Some Profits: Why Shippers Took Off   [Nov-24-16 11:18AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Shipping stocks soar as bears abandon ship   [Nov-16-16 04:18PM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Sino-Global Receives Expected Time Charter Payments   [Aug-25  07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Sino-Global Signs Asset Purchase Agreement   [Apr-13  07:33AM  at noodls]
Financial statements of SINO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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