Intrinsic value of Select Income REIT - SIR

Previous Close

$25.46

  Intrinsic Value

$5.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$25.46

 
Intrinsic value

$5.78

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SIR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.94
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  462
  471
  482
  494
  508
  524
  541
  559
  579
  601
  624
  648
  675
  703
  732
  764
  797
  833
  870
  910
  952
  996
  1,042
  1,091
  1,143
  1,197
  1,255
  1,315
  1,379
  1,445
  1,515
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  124
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  172
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  247
  258
  271
  284
  298
  312
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  177
  182
  186
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  221
  227
  233
  238
  244
  251
  257
  263
  270
  277
  283
  291
  298
  305
  313
  321
  329
  337
  345
  354
  363
Total operating expenses, $m
  264
  274
  281
  288
  296
  304
  312
  321
  330
  340
  349
  361
  372
  383
  395
  408
  421
  435
  449
  464
  479
  496
  513
  530
  548
  568
  587
  608
  629
  652
  675
Operating income, $m
  198
  197
  201
  206
  213
  220
  229
  238
  249
  261
  274
  288
  303
  319
  337
  356
  376
  398
  421
  446
  472
  500
  530
  561
  595
  630
  668
  707
  749
  794
  840
EBITDA, $m
  329
  349
  356
  366
  376
  389
  403
  418
  435
  454
  474
  496
  520
  546
  573
  602
  633
  666
  701
  739
  779
  821
  865
  913
  963
  1,016
  1,072
  1,131
  1,193
  1,259
  1,328
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  205
  215
  225
  237
  248
  261
  274
Earnings before tax, $m
  117
  115
  117
  120
  124
  129
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  174
  184
  196
  208
  221
  235
  250
  267
  284
  303
  322
  344
  366
  390
  415
  442
  471
  501
  533
  567
Tax expense, $m
  1
  31
  32
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
Net income, $m
  116
  84
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  172
  183
  195
  207
  221
  235
  251
  267
  285
  303
  323
  343
  366
  389
  414

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,640
  4,712
  4,821
  4,945
  5,084
  5,238
  5,407
  5,591
  5,790
  6,005
  6,236
  6,482
  6,745
  7,025
  7,323
  7,639
  7,974
  8,328
  8,703
  9,099
  9,517
  9,958
  10,423
  10,914
  11,430
  11,975
  12,547
  13,150
  13,785
  14,453
  15,155
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,618
  4,712
  4,821
  4,945
  5,084
  5,238
  5,407
  5,591
  5,790
  6,005
  6,236
  6,482
  6,745
  7,025
  7,323
  7,639
  7,974
  8,328
  8,703
  9,099
  9,517
  9,958
  10,423
  10,914
  11,430
  11,975
  12,547
  13,150
  13,785
  14,453
  15,155
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
Average production assets, $m
  4,463
  4,552
  4,657
  4,777
  4,911
  5,060
  5,223
  5,401
  5,594
  5,801
  6,024
  6,262
  6,516
  6,787
  7,074
  7,379
  7,703
  8,045
  8,407
  8,790
  9,193
  9,620
  10,069
  10,543
  11,042
  11,567
  12,121
  12,703
  13,316
  13,961
  14,640
Working capital, $m
  0
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
Total debt, $m
  2,351
  2,405
  2,465
  2,534
  2,612
  2,697
  2,791
  2,894
  3,005
  3,124
  3,252
  3,389
  3,535
  3,691
  3,857
  4,032
  4,218
  4,415
  4,624
  4,844
  5,076
  5,322
  5,580
  5,853
  6,140
  6,443
  6,761
  7,097
  7,450
  7,821
  8,211
Total liabilities, $m
  2,566
  2,620
  2,680
  2,749
  2,827
  2,912
  3,006
  3,109
  3,220
  3,339
  3,467
  3,604
  3,750
  3,906
  4,072
  4,247
  4,433
  4,630
  4,839
  5,059
  5,291
  5,537
  5,795
  6,068
  6,355
  6,658
  6,976
  7,312
  7,665
  8,036
  8,426
Total equity, $m
  2,074
  2,092
  2,140
  2,195
  2,257
  2,326
  2,401
  2,482
  2,571
  2,666
  2,769
  2,878
  2,995
  3,119
  3,251
  3,392
  3,540
  3,698
  3,864
  4,040
  4,226
  4,421
  4,628
  4,846
  5,075
  5,317
  5,571
  5,839
  6,121
  6,417
  6,729
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,640
  4,712
  4,820
  4,944
  5,084
  5,238
  5,407
  5,591
  5,791
  6,005
  6,236
  6,482
  6,745
  7,025
  7,323
  7,639
  7,973
  8,328
  8,703
  9,099
  9,517
  9,958
  10,423
  10,914
  11,430
  11,975
  12,547
  13,151
  13,786
  14,453
  15,155
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.134
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  116
  84
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  172
  183
  195
  207
  221
  235
  251
  267
  285
  303
  323
  343
  366
  389
  414
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  131
  152
  155
  159
  164
  169
  174
  180
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  321
  336
  351
  368
  386
  404
  423
  444
  465
  488
Funds from operations, $m
  231
  235
  241
  247
  254
  263
  272
  283
  294
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  388
  407
  428
  451
  475
  500
  527
  556
  586
  619
  653
  689
  727
  767
  809
  854
  902
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  233
  236
  241
  247
  255
  263
  273
  284
  295
  308
  322
  337
  353
  370
  389
  409
  430
  453
  477
  502
  529
  558
  589
  621
  655
  691
  729
  770
  812
  858
  905
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -149
  -152
  -155
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -174
  -180
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -404
  -423
  -444
  -465
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -89
  -105
  -120
  -134
  -149
  -163
  -178
  -193
  -207
  -223
  -238
  -254
  -271
  -288
  -305
  -323
  -342
  -362
  -382
  -404
  -426
  -449
  -474
  -499
  -526
  -553
  -583
  -613
  -645
  -678
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -27
  -238
  -257
  -275
  -293
  -313
  -332
  -352
  -373
  -393
  -416
  -439
  -463
  -488
  -514
  -541
  -569
  -599
  -630
  -662
  -697
  -732
  -770
  -810
  -850
  -894
  -939
  -987
  -1,036
  -1,089
  -1,143
Free cash flow, $m
  206
  -2
  -15
  -27
  -39
  -49
  -59
  -68
  -77
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -217
  -224
  -231
  -239
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -17
  54
  60
  69
  77
  86
  94
  102
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  287
  303
  319
  335
  353
  371
  390
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -20
  54
  60
  69
  77
  86
  94
  102
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  287
  303
  319
  335
  353
  371
  390
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  185
  52
  45
  41
  39
  36
  35
  34
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  84
  92
  100
  109
  119
  129
  140
  152
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  23
  -40
  -48
  -55
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -242
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -312
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  34
  -3
  -14
  -23
  -32
  -40
  -48
  -55
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -138
  -142
  -145
  -149
  -153
  -157
  -160
Discount rate, %
 
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  31
  -3
  -10
  -15
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Select Income REIT is a real estate investment trust. The Company is engaged in the ownership of properties that include buildings and leased industrial lands that are primarily net leased to single tenants. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned 121 properties (362 buildings, leasable land parcels and easements) with approximately 44.8 million rentable square feet. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's properties consisted of 110 office and industrial properties (133 buildings) with approximately 27.0 million square feet located in 34 states throughout the mainland United States (Mainland Properties), and 11 properties (229 buildings, leasable land parcels and easements) located on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, with approximately 17.8 million rentable square feet that are primarily leased to industrial and commercial tenants (Hawaii Properties). As of December 31, 2016, the Company's properties were leased to 312 different tenants.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Select Income REIT (SIR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.6
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -98.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -41.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 113.4%
Total Debt to Equity 113.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Equity 5.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.8%
EBITDA Margin 70.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.6%
Operating Margin 42.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Net Profit Margin 25.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Payout Ratio 156%

SIR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $462 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Select Income REIT. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Select Income REIT. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for SIR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Select Income REIT, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Select Income REIT.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $173 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Select Income REIT.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Select Income REIT. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIR are equal to 966%.

Life of production assets of 34.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Select Income REIT operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIR is equal to -4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2074 million for Select Income REIT - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 89.641 million for Select Income REIT is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Select Income REIT at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Select Income REIT Announces Subsidiary IPO Filing   [Nov-21-17 05:28PM  Business Wire]
▶ Select Income reports 3Q results   [07:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Select Income reports 2Q results   [Jul-25-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Select Income REIT : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 03:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Select Income REIT Announces Annual Meeting Results   [May-23-17 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Select Income reports 1Q results   [Apr-25-17 07:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ Select Income reports 4Q results   [07:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Select Income REIT Announces 2016 Dividend Allocation   [Jan-17-17 05:14PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Select Income REIT (SIR) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 04:57PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ RMR Group acquires Boston real estate finance firm   [Aug-11-16 02:45PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of SIR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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