Intrinsic value of SJW Group - SJW

Previous Close

$63.37

  Intrinsic Value

$82.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+31%

Previous close

$63.37

 
Intrinsic value

$82.78

 
Up/down potential

+31%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SJW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.48
  17.20
  15.98
  14.88
  13.89
  13.00
  12.20
  11.48
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.25
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
Revenue, $m
  333
  398
  462
  531
  605
  683
  767
  855
  947
  1,045
  1,146
  1,252
  1,363
  1,478
  1,598
  1,722
  1,851
  1,986
  2,125
  2,271
  2,422
  2,579
  2,742
  2,912
  3,089
  3,274
  3,466
  3,667
  3,876
  4,094
  4,323
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  251
  291
  334
  380
  430
  482
  538
  596
  657
  721
  788
  857
  930
  1,005
  1,083
  1,165
  1,249
  1,337
  1,428
  1,523
  1,622
  1,725
  1,832
  1,943
  2,059
  2,180
  2,306
  2,438
  2,575
  2,719
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
Total operating expenses, $m
  247
  286
  327
  371
  418
  468
  521
  578
  637
  699
  765
  833
  903
  977
  1,053
  1,132
  1,215
  1,301
  1,390
  1,482
  1,579
  1,679
  1,784
  1,892
  2,004
  2,122
  2,245
  2,372
  2,506
  2,645
  2,790
Operating income, $m
  93
  113
  136
  160
  187
  215
  245
  277
  310
  345
  382
  420
  460
  501
  545
  590
  636
  685
  736
  788
  843
  900
  959
  1,020
  1,085
  1,151
  1,221
  1,294
  1,370
  1,449
  1,532
EBITDA, $m
  139
  144
  172
  202
  234
  269
  305
  344
  385
  427
  472
  518
  567
  618
  670
  725
  782
  841
  903
  967
  1,033
  1,102
  1,174
  1,249
  1,327
  1,409
  1,494
  1,582
  1,675
  1,771
  1,872
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  25
  34
  45
  56
  69
  82
  96
  111
  126
  142
  159
  177
  195
  214
  234
  255
  277
  299
  322
  347
  372
  398
  425
  454
  483
  514
  546
  580
  614
  651
Earnings before tax, $m
  86
  88
  101
  115
  130
  146
  163
  181
  200
  219
  240
  261
  283
  306
  330
  355
  381
  408
  436
  466
  496
  528
  561
  595
  631
  668
  707
  748
  791
  835
  881
Tax expense, $m
  33
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  70
  76
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
  161
  170
  180
  191
  202
  213
  225
  238
Net income, $m
  53
  64
  74
  84
  95
  107
  119
  132
  146
  160
  175
  190
  207
  223
  241
  259
  278
  298
  319
  340
  362
  385
  409
  434
  461
  488
  516
  546
  577
  610
  643

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,443
  1,681
  1,950
  2,240
  2,551
  2,883
  3,235
  3,607
  3,997
  4,407
  4,836
  5,283
  5,750
  6,236
  6,741
  7,266
  7,812
  8,379
  8,968
  9,581
  10,218
  10,880
  11,570
  12,287
  13,034
  13,813
  14,624
  15,471
  16,354
  17,276
  18,239
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,437
  1,681
  1,950
  2,240
  2,551
  2,883
  3,235
  3,607
  3,997
  4,407
  4,836
  5,283
  5,750
  6,236
  6,741
  7,266
  7,812
  8,379
  8,968
  9,581
  10,218
  10,880
  11,570
  12,287
  13,034
  13,813
  14,624
  15,471
  16,354
  17,276
  18,239
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.232
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
Average production assets, $m
  134
  157
  182
  209
  238
  269
  301
  336
  372
  410
  450
  492
  536
  581
  628
  677
  728
  780
  835
  892
  952
  1,013
  1,078
  1,144
  1,214
  1,287
  1,362
  1,441
  1,523
  1,609
  1,699
Working capital, $m
  36
  51
  60
  68
  78
  88
  99
  110
  122
  135
  148
  162
  176
  191
  206
  222
  239
  256
  274
  293
  312
  333
  354
  376
  398
  422
  447
  473
  500
  528
  558
Total debt, $m
  448
  614
  804
  1,009
  1,228
  1,463
  1,711
  1,973
  2,249
  2,539
  2,841
  3,157
  3,486
  3,829
  4,186
  4,557
  4,942
  5,342
  5,759
  6,191
  6,641
  7,108
  7,595
  8,102
  8,629
  9,179
  9,752
  10,349
  10,973
  11,624
  12,304
Total liabilities, $m
  1,022
  1,187
  1,377
  1,582
  1,801
  2,036
  2,284
  2,546
  2,822
  3,112
  3,414
  3,730
  4,059
  4,402
  4,759
  5,130
  5,515
  5,915
  6,332
  6,764
  7,214
  7,681
  8,168
  8,675
  9,202
  9,752
  10,325
  10,922
  11,546
  12,197
  12,877
Total equity, $m
  422
  494
  573
  659
  750
  848
  951
  1,060
  1,175
  1,296
  1,422
  1,553
  1,690
  1,833
  1,982
  2,136
  2,297
  2,463
  2,637
  2,817
  3,004
  3,199
  3,401
  3,612
  3,832
  4,061
  4,300
  4,548
  4,808
  5,079
  5,362
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,444
  1,681
  1,950
  2,241
  2,551
  2,884
  3,235
  3,606
  3,997
  4,408
  4,836
  5,283
  5,749
  6,235
  6,741
  7,266
  7,812
  8,378
  8,969
  9,581
  10,218
  10,880
  11,569
  12,287
  13,034
  13,813
  14,625
  15,470
  16,354
  17,276
  18,239
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.062
  1.240
  1.400
  1.530
  1.640
  1.730
  1.800
  1.860
  1.910
  1.960
  2.000
  2.030
  2.060
  2.090
  2.110
  2.130
  2.150
  2.170
  2.180
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
  2.280
  2.290
  2.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  53
  64
  74
  84
  95
  107
  119
  132
  146
  160
  175
  190
  207
  223
  241
  259
  278
  298
  319
  340
  362
  385
  409
  434
  461
  488
  516
  546
  577
  610
  643
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  46
  31
  36
  42
  48
  54
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  98
  107
  116
  126
  135
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  203
  216
  229
  243
  257
  272
  288
  305
  322
  340
Funds from operations, $m
  136
  96
  110
  126
  143
  160
  179
  199
  220
  242
  265
  289
  314
  340
  367
  395
  424
  454
  486
  518
  552
  588
  625
  663
  703
  745
  789
  834
  882
  931
  983
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  114
  88
  102
  117
  133
  150
  169
  188
  208
  230
  252
  275
  299
  325
  351
  379
  407
  437
  468
  500
  533
  568
  604
  641
  680
  721
  764
  808
  855
  903
  954
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -82
  -90
  -98
  -107
  -116
  -126
  -135
  -146
  -156
  -167
  -178
  -190
  -203
  -216
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -288
  -305
  -322
New CAPEX, $m
  -142
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -122
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -71
  -79
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -141
  -152
  -163
  -175
  -186
  -199
  -211
  -224
  -237
  -252
  -267
  -283
  -299
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370
  -391
  -412
Free cash flow, $m
  -8
  38
  46
  54
  62
  72
  82
  93
  105
  117
  130
  143
  158
  172
  188
  204
  221
  238
  257
  275
  295
  316
  337
  359
  382
  406
  431
  457
  484
  513
  542
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  14
  172
  190
  205
  220
  234
  248
  262
  276
  289
  303
  316
  329
  343
  357
  371
  385
  400
  416
  433
  450
  468
  487
  507
  528
  550
  573
  598
  624
  651
  680
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  8
  5
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  45
  180
  195
  206
  220
  234
  248
  262
  276
  289
  303
  316
  329
  343
  357
  371
  385
  400
  416
  433
  450
  468
  487
  507
  528
  550
  573
  598
  624
  651
  680
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  37
  218
  240
  260
  282
  306
  331
  355
  381
  406
  432
  459
  487
  515
  545
  575
  606
  639
  673
  708
  745
  783
  823
  866
  910
  956
  1,004
  1,055
  1,108
  1,164
  1,222
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -72
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -260
  -271
  -283
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  146
  161
  174
  191
  209
  227
  246
  266
  286
  306
  328
  350
  373
  396
  420
  446
  472
  499
  528
  558
  589
  621
  655
  690
  727
  765
  806
  848
  893
  939
Discount rate, %
 
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  135
  137
  135
  134
  131
  127
  121
  113
  105
  95
  85
  75
  65
  55
  46
  38
  31
  24
  19
  14
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.4
  99.1
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0

SJW Group, formerly SJW Corp., is a holding company. The Company's subsidiaries include San Jose Water Company, SJWTX, Inc., SJW Land Company and Texas Water Alliance Limited (TWA). SJWTX, Inc. is doing business as Canyon Lake Water Service Company (CLWSC). It operates through the segments, which include Water Utility Services, Real Estate Services and All Other. Its Water Utility Services segment provides water utility and utility-related services to its customers through its subsidiaries, such as San Jose Water Company, CLWSC and TWA. The Real Estate Services segment includes property management and investment activity conducted by SJW Land Company. The Company's All Other segment includes its other business activities. San Jose Water Company distributes water to customers in accordance with accepted water utility methods. SJW Land Company owns undeveloped land, and owns and operates a portfolio of commercial buildings in the states of California, Texas, Arizona and Tennessee.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SJW Group (SJW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.5
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -46.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 32.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 1
LT Debt to Equity 102.8%
Total Debt to Equity 106.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 13.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 45.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.4%
Operating Margin 27.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.1%
Net Profit Margin 15.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Effective Tax Rate 38.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Payout Ratio 32.1%

SJW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SJW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $340 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SJW Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SJW Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SJW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for SJW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SJW Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SJW Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SJW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $34 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SJW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for SJW Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SJW Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SJW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SJW are equal to 39.3%.

Life of production assets of 2.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SJW Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SJW is equal to 12.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $422 million for SJW Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.555 million for SJW Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SJW Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Unknown but Amazing Dividend Stocks   [Nov-17-17 09:19AM  Motley Fool]
▶ What Is SJW Groups (SJW) Share Price Doing?   [Oct-30-17 12:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ SJW posts 3Q profit   [Oct-25-17 06:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It The Right Time To Buy SJW Group (SJW)?   [Sep-20-17 07:39PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ SJW Group: Leads amongst peers with strong fundamentals   [Jul-31-17 03:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ SJW posts 2Q profit   [Jul-27-17 03:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ SJW Group Announces 2017 Second Quarter Financial Results   [Jul-26-17 06:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to SJW Group : July 25, 2017   [Jul-25-17 01:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to SJW Group : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 04:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ SJW Group Value Analysis (NYSE:SJW) : June 29, 2017   [Jun-29-17 03:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to SJW Group : May 4, 2017   [May-04-17 04:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ SJW posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 07:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ The 3 Worst-Performing Dividend Achievers This Year   [Mar-15-17 11:22AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ SJW posts 4Q profit   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Time To Consider SJW Group (SJW)?   [Dec-10-16 09:40PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of SJW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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