Intrinsic value of Tanger Factory Outlet Centers - SKT

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$25.70

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SKT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SKT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.15
  10.60
  10.04
  9.54
  9.08
  8.67
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  466
  515
  567
  621
  678
  736
  798
  861
  927
  996
  1,067
  1,142
  1,219
  1,299
  1,383
  1,469
  1,560
  1,654
  1,752
  1,854
  1,961
  2,073
  2,189
  2,310
  2,437
  2,570
  2,709
  2,854
  3,006
  3,165
  3,332
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  346
  381
  417
  455
  495
  536
  579
  623
  669
  717
  767
  819
  873
  929
  987
  1,048
  1,111
  1,177
  1,246
  1,318
  1,393
  1,471
  1,553
  1,638
  1,727
  1,820
  1,918
  2,020
  2,127
  2,239
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  315
  346
  381
  417
  455
  495
  536
  579
  623
  669
  717
  767
  819
  873
  929
  987
  1,048
  1,111
  1,177
  1,246
  1,318
  1,393
  1,471
  1,553
  1,638
  1,727
  1,820
  1,918
  2,020
  2,127
  2,239
Operating income, $m
  151
  169
  186
  204
  222
  242
  262
  282
  304
  327
  350
  374
  400
  426
  453
  482
  512
  542
  575
  608
  643
  680
  718
  758
  799
  843
  889
  936
  986
  1,038
  1,093
EBITDA, $m
  266
  296
  326
  357
  390
  424
  459
  495
  533
  573
  614
  657
  701
  747
  795
  845
  897
  951
  1,008
  1,067
  1,128
  1,192
  1,259
  1,329
  1,402
  1,478
  1,558
  1,642
  1,729
  1,821
  1,916
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  59
  66
  73
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  124
  133
  143
  154
  164
  175
  187
  199
  212
  225
  239
  253
  268
  283
  300
  317
  334
  353
  372
  393
  414
  436
Earnings before tax, $m
  193
  110
  120
  130
  141
  153
  165
  177
  190
  203
  217
  231
  246
  262
  278
  295
  312
  331
  350
  369
  390
  412
  434
  458
  483
  509
  536
  564
  593
  624
  657
Tax expense, $m
  0
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  177
Net income, $m
  194
  80
  88
  95
  103
  112
  120
  129
  139
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  270
  285
  301
  317
  334
  352
  371
  391
  412
  433
  456
  479

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,526
  2,786
  3,066
  3,358
  3,663
  3,981
  4,311
  4,655
  5,013
  5,384
  5,770
  6,171
  6,588
  7,022
  7,473
  7,942
  8,431
  8,940
  9,471
  10,024
  10,601
  11,203
  11,832
  12,489
  13,175
  13,893
  14,643
  15,428
  16,250
  17,110
  18,011
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,514
  2,786
  3,066
  3,358
  3,663
  3,981
  4,311
  4,655
  5,013
  5,384
  5,770
  6,171
  6,588
  7,022
  7,473
  7,942
  8,431
  8,940
  9,471
  10,024
  10,601
  11,203
  11,832
  12,489
  13,175
  13,893
  14,643
  15,428
  16,250
  17,110
  18,011
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
Average production assets, $m
  1,958
  2,166
  2,383
  2,610
  2,847
  3,094
  3,352
  3,619
  3,897
  4,185
  4,486
  4,797
  5,122
  5,459
  5,809
  6,174
  6,554
  6,950
  7,362
  7,792
  8,241
  8,709
  9,198
  9,708
  10,242
  10,800
  11,383
  11,994
  12,632
  13,301
  14,001
Working capital, $m
  0
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
Total debt, $m
  1,688
  1,888
  2,094
  2,310
  2,535
  2,770
  3,014
  3,268
  3,531
  3,805
  4,090
  4,386
  4,694
  5,014
  5,347
  5,694
  6,054
  6,430
  6,821
  7,230
  7,655
  8,100
  8,564
  9,049
  9,555
  10,085
  10,639
  11,218
  11,824
  12,459
  13,124
Total liabilities, $m
  1,856
  2,056
  2,262
  2,478
  2,703
  2,938
  3,182
  3,436
  3,699
  3,973
  4,258
  4,554
  4,862
  5,182
  5,515
  5,862
  6,222
  6,598
  6,989
  7,398
  7,823
  8,268
  8,732
  9,217
  9,723
  10,253
  10,807
  11,386
  11,992
  12,627
  13,292
Total equity, $m
  670
  730
  803
  880
  960
  1,043
  1,130
  1,220
  1,313
  1,411
  1,512
  1,617
  1,726
  1,840
  1,958
  2,081
  2,209
  2,342
  2,481
  2,626
  2,777
  2,935
  3,100
  3,272
  3,452
  3,640
  3,837
  4,042
  4,257
  4,483
  4,719
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,526
  2,786
  3,065
  3,358
  3,663
  3,981
  4,312
  4,656
  5,012
  5,384
  5,770
  6,171
  6,588
  7,022
  7,473
  7,943
  8,431
  8,940
  9,470
  10,024
  10,600
  11,203
  11,832
  12,489
  13,175
  13,893
  14,644
  15,428
  16,249
  17,110
  18,011
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.519
  2.590
  2.610
  2.630
  2.640
  2.660
  2.670
  2.680
  2.690
  2.700
  2.710
  2.710
  2.720
  2.730
  2.730
  2.740
  2.740
  2.750
  2.750
  2.750
  2.760
  2.760
  2.760
  2.770
  2.770
  2.770
  2.770
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
  2.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262
  0.262

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  194
  80
  88
  95
  103
  112
  120
  129
  139
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  270
  285
  301
  317
  334
  352
  371
  391
  412
  433
  456
  479
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  115
  127
  140
  154
  167
  182
  197
  213
  229
  246
  264
  282
  301
  321
  342
  363
  386
  409
  433
  458
  485
  512
  541
  571
  602
  635
  670
  706
  743
  782
  824
Funds from operations, $m
  242
  208
  228
  249
  271
  294
  317
  342
  368
  394
  422
  451
  481
  512
  545
  578
  614
  650
  688
  728
  770
  813
  858
  905
  955
  1,007
  1,061
  1,117
  1,176
  1,238
  1,303
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  239
  402
  229
  250
  272
  295
  319
  344
  369
  396
  424
  453
  483
  514
  547
  581
  616
  653
  691
  731
  772
  816
  861
  909
  958
  1,010
  1,064
  1,121
  1,180
  1,242
  1,307
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -115
  -127
  -140
  -154
  -167
  -182
  -197
  -213
  -229
  -246
  -264
  -282
  -301
  -321
  -342
  -363
  -386
  -409
  -433
  -458
  -485
  -512
  -541
  -571
  -602
  -635
  -670
  -706
  -743
  -782
New CAPEX, $m
  -172
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -289
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -365
  -380
  -396
  -412
  -430
  -449
  -468
  -489
  -511
  -534
  -558
  -583
  -610
  -639
  -669
  -700
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -323
  -344
  -367
  -391
  -414
  -439
  -464
  -491
  -518
  -546
  -576
  -606
  -638
  -672
  -707
  -743
  -782
  -821
  -863
  -907
  -953
  -1,001
  -1,052
  -1,105
  -1,160
  -1,218
  -1,280
  -1,345
  -1,412
  -1,482
Free cash flow, $m
  193
  79
  -116
  -117
  -118
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -121
  -122
  -122
  -123
  -123
  -124
  -125
  -126
  -127
  -129
  -130
  -132
  -135
  -137
  -140
  -143
  -146
  -150
  -155
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -175
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -51
  200
  206
  216
  225
  234
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  346
  361
  376
  392
  408
  426
  444
  464
  485
  507
  530
  554
  579
  606
  635
  665
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -62
  200
  206
  216
  225
  234
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  346
  361
  376
  392
  408
  426
  444
  464
  485
  507
  530
  554
  579
  606
  635
  665
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  132
  279
  91
  98
  107
  115
  124
  133
  143
  152
  163
  173
  184
  196
  208
  220
  233
  247
  261
  276
  291
  307
  324
  342
  360
  379
  399
  420
  442
  465
  490
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -95
  -72
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -236
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  219
  17
  22
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  55
  62
  68
  75
  82
  90
  97
  105
  114
  122
  131
  140
  150
  159
  170
  180
  191
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
Discount rate, %
 
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.88
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.44
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
  22.04
  23.14
  24.30
  25.51
  26.79
  28.12
  29.53
  31.01
  32.56
  34.19
  35.90
  37.69
  39.57
  41.55
  43.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  198
  14
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  16
  15
  13
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets in United States. It focuses on developing, acquiring, owning, operating, and managing outlet shopping centers. Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, Inc. was founded in 1981, and is based in Greensboro, North Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.7
Price to Sales 5.3
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 36.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 251.9%
Total Debt to Equity 251.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Equity 31.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.4%
EBITDA Margin 66.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.1%
Operating Margin 32.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 41.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Net Profit Margin 41.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 72.7%

SKT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SKT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $466 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tanger Factory Outlet Centers. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tanger Factory Outlet Centers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SKT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.6%, whose default value for SKT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tanger Factory Outlet Centers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SKT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SKT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tanger Factory Outlet Centers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tanger Factory Outlet Centers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SKT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SKT are equal to 420.2%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tanger Factory Outlet Centers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SKT is equal to -2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $670 million for Tanger Factory Outlet Centers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 93.964 million for Tanger Factory Outlet Centers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tanger Factory Outlet Centers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.


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▶ The Art of Repeal: The Law of Unintended Consequences   [Dec-21-16 06:45AM  at Forbes]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (SKT)   [Dec-12-16 02:26AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ A Premium REIT To Help You Sleep Well At Night   [Dec-05-16 11:09AM  at Forbes]
▶ Tanger Outlets Daytona Beach Celebrates Grand Opening   [Nov-18-16 01:15PM  PR Newswire]
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▶ Trick Or Treat, Buy A Blue Chip REIT   [Oct-24-16 07:00AM  at Forbes]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Tanger Outlets/   [Aug-26-16 10:43AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of SKT Financial statements of SKT Annual reports of SKT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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