Intrinsic value of Skyline - SKY

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$6.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$6.65

 
Intrinsic value

$30.70

 
Up/down potential

+362%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SKY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.37
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  212
  230
  249
  268
  289
  310
  331
  354
  378
  402
  428
  455
  482
  511
  541
  573
  605
  640
  675
  713
  752
  793
  835
  880
  927
  975
  1,027
  1,080
  1,137
  1,195
  1,257
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  175
  189
  204
  219
  235
  252
  269
  287
  305
  325
  345
  366
  388
  411
  435
  460
  486
  513
  541
  571
  602
  634
  668
  703
  740
  779
  820
  863
  907
  954
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
Total operating expenses, $m
  210
  226
  242
  258
  274
  292
  310
  328
  348
  367
  389
  411
  433
  457
  482
  507
  534
  562
  591
  621
  653
  686
  720
  756
  793
  833
  874
  917
  963
  1,009
  1,059
Operating income, $m
  2
  4
  7
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
EBITDA, $m
  3
  5
  9
  12
  16
  20
  23
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  191
  204
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  2
  4
  7
  10
  14
  18
  21
  25
  29
  34
  38
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  89
  97
  104
  112
  121
  129
  139
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
Net income, $m
  2
  3
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  18
  21
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  42
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  55
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  73
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  228
  239
  252
  265
  279
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  73
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  228
  239
  252
  265
  279
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.511
  4.510
  4.527
  4.542
  4.516
  4.493
  4.534
  4.481
  4.500
  4.517
  4.505
  4.505
  4.505
  4.522
  4.508
  4.512
  4.515
  4.507
  4.500
  4.513
  4.503
  4.506
  4.514
  4.513
  4.522
  4.514
  4.504
  4.519
  4.512
  4.509
  4.505
Average production assets, $m
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Working capital, $m
  18
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
Total debt, $m
  4
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  64
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
Total liabilities, $m
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  90
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
Total equity, $m
  25
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  55
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  78
  83
  89
  95
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  141
  150
  158
  166
  176
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  240
  252
  265
  279
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.160
  0.350
  0.460
  0.550
  0.640
  0.720
  0.780
  0.850
  0.900
  0.960
  1.010
  1.050
  1.090
  1.130
  1.160
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362
  0.362

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  2
  3
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  18
  21
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  42
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  4
  6
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  59
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  4
  3
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  1
  3
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  111
  118
  126
  135
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  111
  118
  126
  135
  144
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  10
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  20
  24
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  10
  4
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Skyline Corporation designs, produces, and markets manufactured housing, modular housing, and park models to independent dealers and manufactured housing communities located in the United States and Canada. The company’s manufactured housing models include two to four bedrooms, kitchen, dining area, living room, one or two bathrooms, kitchen appliances, and central heating and cooling products, as well as exterior dormers and windows, interior or exterior accent columns, fireplaces, and whirlpool tubs. Its park models provide temporary living accommodations for individuals seeking leisure travel and outdoor recreation, and are marketed under the Shore Park trademark. As of May 31, 2016,it sold 3,217 manufactured homes, 360 modular homes and 337 park models in suburban and rural areas. Skyline Corporation was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Elkhart, Indiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Skyline (SKY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.9
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 16%
Total Debt to Equity 16%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.4%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.9%
Return On Equity 8.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.9%
Asset Turnover 4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
EBITDA Margin 1.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Operating Margin 0.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SKY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SKY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $212 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Skyline. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Skyline. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SKY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SKY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Skyline, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Skyline.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SKY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $50 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SKY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Skyline.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Skyline. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SKY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SKY are equal to 5.7%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Skyline operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SKY is equal to 4.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $25 million for Skyline - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.62 million for Skyline is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Skyline at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Skyline Corp. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Skyline Corp. : January 19, 2017   [Jan-19-17 01:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Skyline Reports Second Quarter And First Half Results   [Jan-12-17 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Skyline reports 2Q loss   [05:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Skyline Corp. : December 13, 2016   [Dec-13-16 01:30PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Bank shares pull back, keeping gain on FTSE 100 in check   [Dec-09-16 12:04PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Skyline Reports First Quarter Results   [Oct-13-16 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Skyline Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting   [Sep-20-16 05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] US autos: Adding new routes   [Jul-11-16 02:18PM  at Financial Times]
▶ The Impact of Brexit on the Stocks We Cover   [07:00AM  at Morningstar]
▶ Brexit Fears Unfairly Hit European Communication Stocks   [Jun-24-16 08:50AM  at Morningstar]
▶ European Stocks Edge Higher Before ECB Meeting   [Apr-21-16 05:02AM  at TheStreet]
▶ Skyline Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting   [Sep-22  05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Skyline Reports Fiscal 2015 Fourth Quarter Results   [Aug-26  05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Skyline Corp.   [Apr-24  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Skyline Reports Fiscal 2015 Third Quarter Results   [Apr-03  05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Skyline Corporation To Remain An Independent Company   [Feb-05  06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Skyline Corp.   [Jan-16  07:07PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Skyline Reports Fiscal 2015 Second Quarter Results   [Jan-14  05:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Skyline Signs Indemnification Agreements   [Nov-26  05:30PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of SKY Financial statements of SKY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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