Intrinsic value of Silicon Laboratories - SLAB

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$71.15

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$71.15

 
Intrinsic value

$66.36

 
Up/down potential

-7%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SLAB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.22
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  698
  755
  815
  877
  941
  1,008
  1,077
  1,149
  1,224
  1,302
  1,384
  1,468
  1,556
  1,648
  1,744
  1,844
  1,949
  2,057
  2,171
  2,290
  2,415
  2,545
  2,681
  2,824
  2,973
  3,129
  3,293
  3,464
  3,644
  3,832
  4,029
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  255
  272
  291
  310
  330
  351
  373
  395
  419
  443
  441
  468
  495
  524
  554
  585
  618
  652
  688
  726
  765
  806
  848
  893
  940
  989
  1,041
  1,095
  1,151
  1,211
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  414
  424
  435
  446
  457
  469
  480
  492
  505
  517
  530
  543
  557
  571
  585
  600
  615
  630
  646
  662
  679
  696
  713
  731
  749
  768
  787
  807
  827
  847
Total operating expenses, $m
  631
  669
  696
  726
  756
  787
  820
  853
  887
  924
  960
  971
  1,011
  1,052
  1,095
  1,139
  1,185
  1,233
  1,282
  1,334
  1,388
  1,444
  1,502
  1,561
  1,624
  1,689
  1,757
  1,828
  1,902
  1,978
  2,058
Operating income, $m
  66
  87
  118
  151
  185
  220
  257
  296
  337
  379
  423
  497
  545
  596
  649
  705
  763
  825
  889
  956
  1,027
  1,102
  1,180
  1,262
  1,349
  1,440
  1,536
  1,636
  1,742
  1,854
  1,971
EBITDA, $m
  107
  135
  168
  202
  238
  276
  315
  355
  398
  443
  489
  538
  588
  642
  697
  756
  817
  881
  949
  1,020
  1,094
  1,172
  1,254
  1,340
  1,431
  1,526
  1,627
  1,732
  1,843
  1,960
  2,083
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  65
  84
  115
  147
  180
  215
  251
  289
  328
  370
  413
  486
  533
  583
  635
  689
  746
  806
  869
  935
  1,004
  1,077
  1,154
  1,234
  1,319
  1,408
  1,502
  1,601
  1,704
  1,814
  1,929
Tax expense, $m
  4
  23
  31
  40
  49
  58
  68
  78
  89
  100
  111
  131
  144
  157
  171
  186
  201
  218
  235
  252
  271
  291
  312
  333
  356
  380
  406
  432
  460
  490
  521
Net income, $m
  61
  61
  84
  107
  131
  157
  183
  211
  240
  270
  301
  355
  389
  425
  463
  503
  545
  588
  634
  683
  733
  786
  842
  901
  963
  1,028
  1,096
  1,168
  1,244
  1,324
  1,408

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  295
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,082
  851
  919
  988
  1,061
  1,136
  1,214
  1,296
  1,380
  1,468
  1,560
  1,655
  1,755
  1,858
  1,966
  2,079
  2,197
  2,320
  2,448
  2,582
  2,722
  2,869
  3,023
  3,183
  3,351
  3,528
  3,712
  3,905
  4,108
  4,320
  4,543
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  787
  851
  919
  988
  1,061
  1,136
  1,214
  1,296
  1,380
  1,468
  1,560
  1,655
  1,755
  1,858
  1,966
  2,079
  2,197
  2,320
  2,448
  2,582
  2,722
  2,869
  3,023
  3,183
  3,351
  3,528
  3,712
  3,905
  4,108
  4,320
  4,543
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.888
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
Average production assets, $m
  243
  263
  284
  305
  327
  351
  375
  400
  426
  453
  482
  511
  542
  574
  607
  642
  678
  716
  756
  797
  840
  886
  933
  983
  1,035
  1,089
  1,146
  1,205
  1,268
  1,334
  1,402
Working capital, $m
  351
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
  204
  214
  226
  238
  250
  263
  277
  291
  307
  322
Total debt, $m
  73
  94
  116
  138
  162
  186
  211
  238
  265
  294
  323
  354
  387
  420
  455
  492
  530
  570
  611
  655
  700
  748
  797
  849
  904
  961
  1,021
  1,083
  1,149
  1,218
  1,290
Total liabilities, $m
  255
  276
  298
  320
  344
  368
  393
  420
  447
  476
  505
  536
  569
  602
  637
  674
  712
  752
  793
  837
  882
  930
  979
  1,031
  1,086
  1,143
  1,203
  1,265
  1,331
  1,400
  1,472
Total equity, $m
  827
  576
  621
  668
  717
  768
  821
  876
  933
  993
  1,055
  1,119
  1,186
  1,256
  1,329
  1,405
  1,485
  1,568
  1,655
  1,746
  1,840
  1,940
  2,043
  2,152
  2,266
  2,385
  2,509
  2,640
  2,777
  2,920
  3,071
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,082
  852
  919
  988
  1,061
  1,136
  1,214
  1,296
  1,380
  1,469
  1,560
  1,655
  1,755
  1,858
  1,966
  2,079
  2,197
  2,320
  2,448
  2,583
  2,722
  2,870
  3,022
  3,183
  3,352
  3,528
  3,712
  3,905
  4,108
  4,320
  4,543
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.088
  0.160
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  61
  84
  107
  131
  157
  183
  211
  240
  270
  301
  355
  389
  425
  463
  503
  545
  588
  634
  683
  733
  786
  842
  901
  963
  1,028
  1,096
  1,168
  1,244
  1,324
  1,408
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  48
  50
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
Funds from operations, $m
  122
  110
  134
  159
  185
  212
  240
  270
  301
  333
  367
  395
  432
  471
  511
  554
  598
  645
  694
  746
  800
  857
  916
  979
  1,045
  1,114
  1,187
  1,264
  1,345
  1,430
  1,519
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  129
  96
  129
  154
  180
  207
  235
  264
  295
  327
  361
  388
  425
  464
  504
  546
  590
  637
  685
  736
  790
  846
  905
  968
  1,033
  1,102
  1,174
  1,250
  1,330
  1,415
  1,503
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -50
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
Free cash flow, $m
  79
  57
  87
  110
  133
  157
  183
  209
  237
  266
  296
  321
  354
  389
  425
  463
  503
  545
  589
  635
  683
  734
  788
  844
  903
  965
  1,031
  1,100
  1,172
  1,249
  1,329
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  27
  78
  109
  132
  157
  182
  208
  236
  265
  295
  326
  352
  386
  422
  460
  499
  541
  585
  630
  678
  729
  782
  838
  896
  958
  1,023
  1,091
  1,162
  1,238
  1,317
  1,401
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -66
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  295
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  329
  64
  85
  108
  131
  155
  181
  207
  235
  264
  287
  319
  352
  387
  423
  461
  502
  544
  588
  634
  683
  734
  787
  844
  903
  966
  1,032
  1,101
  1,174
  1,251
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  316
  58
  74
  89
  102
  113
  122
  130
  135
  139
  136
  136
  134
  130
  124
  117
  109
  100
  90
  81
  71
  61
  52
  43
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Silicon Laboratories Inc., a fabless semiconductor company, designs, develops, and markets mixed-signal analog intensive integrated circuits (ICs) in the United States, China, and internationally. The company offers Internet of things products, such as 8-bit mixed-signal, 32-bit wireless, and ultra-low-power 32-bit microcontrollers; and wireless connectivity devices comprising a range of integrated and low power transceivers, as well as sensor products, including optical and relative humidity/temperature sensors. It also provides broadcast products, including TV tuners and demodulators, and automotive radio tuners, as well as AM/FM, HD radio, and DAB/DAB+ receivers. In addition, the company offers infrastructure products comprising timing devices, such as clocks and oscillators; and multi-channel isolators, isolated drivers, isolated power converters, and mixed-signal devices. Further, it provides access products, such as ProSLIC subscriber line interface circuits for VoIP; ISOmodem embedded modems; and Power over Ethernet power source equipment and powered device ICs. The company primarily markets its products to industrial, communication, consumer, and automotive markets through direct sales force, as well as through a network of independent sales representatives and distributors. Silicon Laboratories Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Silicon Laboratories (SLAB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48.9
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 8.8%
Total Debt to Equity 8.8%
Interest Coverage 34
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Total Capital 7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Equity 7.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.2%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 9.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 6.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

SLAB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SLAB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $698 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Silicon Laboratories. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Silicon Laboratories. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SLAB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SLAB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Silicon Laboratories, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Silicon Laboratories.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SLAB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $404 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SLAB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Silicon Laboratories.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Silicon Laboratories. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SLAB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SLAB are equal to 34.8%.

Life of production assets of 12.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Silicon Laboratories operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SLAB is equal to 8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $827 million for Silicon Laboratories - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.284 million for Silicon Laboratories is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Silicon Laboratories at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Silicon Labs Keeps the Earnings Beats Coming   [Apr-27-17 03:41PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Silicon Labs beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 07:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top-Rated Stocks: Silicon Laboratories Sees Composite Rating Climb To 96   [Mar-23-17 11:09AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] Silicon Labs Stock Seen Valued at $80   [06:50AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Silicon Laboratories Delivers Another Quarterly Beat   [Feb-01-17 04:40PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ How Silicon Laboratories Gained 37% in 2016   [Jan-19-17 04:42PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Silicon Laboratories (SLAB)   [Dec-06-16 03:24AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Silicon Laboratories Inc. Processes Another Great Quarter   [Oct-28-16 07:24AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Silicon Labs Makes a Play for IoT Software   [Oct-06-16 11:44AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Silicon Labs opens wallet for another internet-of-things buyout   [Oct-03-16 04:00PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of SLAB Financial statements of SLAB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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