Intrinsic value of Silicon Laboratories - SLAB

Previous Close

$88.25

  Intrinsic Value

$69.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-22%

Previous close

$88.25

 
Intrinsic value

$69.20

 
Up/down potential

-22%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SLAB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.22
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  698
  758
  820
  885
  953
  1,023
  1,096
  1,172
  1,251
  1,332
  1,418
  1,506
  1,599
  1,695
  1,795
  1,900
  2,009
  2,123
  2,241
  2,366
  2,495
  2,631
  2,773
  2,921
  3,077
  3,240
  3,410
  3,588
  3,775
  3,971
  4,176
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  255
  274
  294
  314
  335
  357
  380
  403
  428
  454
  453
  480
  509
  539
  571
  604
  638
  673
  711
  750
  791
  833
  878
  924
  973
  1,025
  1,078
  1,134
  1,193
  1,255
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  414
  424
  435
  446
  457
  469
  480
  492
  505
  517
  530
  543
  557
  571
  585
  600
  615
  630
  646
  662
  679
  696
  713
  731
  749
  768
  787
  807
  827
  847
Total operating expenses, $m
  631
  669
  698
  729
  760
  792
  826
  860
  895
  933
  971
  983
  1,023
  1,066
  1,110
  1,156
  1,204
  1,253
  1,303
  1,357
  1,412
  1,470
  1,529
  1,591
  1,655
  1,722
  1,793
  1,865
  1,941
  2,020
  2,102
Operating income, $m
  66
  89
  122
  157
  193
  231
  271
  312
  355
  400
  447
  524
  575
  629
  685
  744
  805
  870
  938
  1,009
  1,084
  1,162
  1,244
  1,331
  1,422
  1,517
  1,618
  1,723
  1,834
  1,951
  2,074
EBITDA, $m
  107
  137
  172
  209
  247
  287
  328
  372
  417
  464
  514
  565
  619
  676
  734
  796
  861
  929
  1,000
  1,074
  1,153
  1,235
  1,321
  1,411
  1,507
  1,607
  1,712
  1,822
  1,939
  2,061
  2,190
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
Earnings before tax, $m
  65
  86
  119
  153
  188
  225
  264
  304
  346
  390
  436
  512
  562
  615
  670
  727
  788
  851
  917
  987
  1,060
  1,136
  1,217
  1,302
  1,391
  1,484
  1,583
  1,686
  1,795
  1,909
  2,030
Tax expense, $m
  4
  23
  32
  41
  51
  61
  71
  82
  94
  105
  118
  138
  152
  166
  181
  196
  213
  230
  248
  266
  286
  307
  329
  351
  375
  401
  427
  455
  485
  516
  548
Net income, $m
  61
  63
  87
  111
  137
  164
  193
  222
  253
  285
  318
  374
  410
  449
  489
  531
  575
  621
  669
  720
  774
  830
  888
  950
  1,015
  1,083
  1,155
  1,231
  1,310
  1,394
  1,482

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  295
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,082
  855
  925
  998
  1,074
  1,153
  1,236
  1,321
  1,410
  1,502
  1,598
  1,698
  1,802
  1,911
  2,024
  2,142
  2,265
  2,393
  2,527
  2,667
  2,813
  2,966
  3,126
  3,294
  3,469
  3,652
  3,844
  4,045
  4,256
  4,477
  4,708
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  787
  855
  925
  998
  1,074
  1,153
  1,236
  1,321
  1,410
  1,502
  1,598
  1,698
  1,802
  1,911
  2,024
  2,142
  2,265
  2,393
  2,527
  2,667
  2,813
  2,966
  3,126
  3,294
  3,469
  3,652
  3,844
  4,045
  4,256
  4,477
  4,708
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.887
  0.887
  0.886
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
Average production assets, $m
  243
  264
  286
  308
  332
  356
  381
  408
  435
  464
  493
  524
  556
  590
  625
  661
  699
  739
  780
  823
  868
  916
  965
  1,017
  1,071
  1,127
  1,187
  1,249
  1,314
  1,382
  1,453
Working capital, $m
  351
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  210
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  287
  302
  318
  334
Total debt, $m
  73
  95
  118
  141
  166
  192
  218
  246
  275
  305
  336
  368
  402
  437
  474
  512
  552
  593
  637
  682
  730
  779
  831
  885
  942
  1,001
  1,064
  1,129
  1,197
  1,269
  1,344
Total liabilities, $m
  255
  277
  300
  323
  348
  374
  400
  428
  457
  487
  518
  550
  584
  619
  656
  694
  734
  775
  819
  864
  912
  961
  1,013
  1,067
  1,124
  1,183
  1,246
  1,311
  1,379
  1,451
  1,526
Total equity, $m
  827
  578
  625
  675
  726
  780
  835
  893
  953
  1,015
  1,080
  1,148
  1,218
  1,292
  1,368
  1,448
  1,531
  1,618
  1,708
  1,803
  1,902
  2,005
  2,113
  2,227
  2,345
  2,469
  2,599
  2,735
  2,877
  3,026
  3,183
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,082
  855
  925
  998
  1,074
  1,154
  1,235
  1,321
  1,410
  1,502
  1,598
  1,698
  1,802
  1,911
  2,024
  2,142
  2,265
  2,393
  2,527
  2,667
  2,814
  2,966
  3,126
  3,294
  3,469
  3,652
  3,845
  4,046
  4,256
  4,477
  4,709
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.088
  0.160
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676
  0.676

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  63
  87
  111
  137
  164
  193
  222
  253
  285
  318
  374
  410
  449
  489
  531
  575
  621
  669
  720
  774
  830
  888
  950
  1,015
  1,083
  1,155
  1,231
  1,310
  1,394
  1,482
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
Funds from operations, $m
  122
  111
  137
  163
  191
  220
  251
  282
  315
  349
  385
  415
  454
  495
  538
  583
  630
  680
  731
  786
  843
  902
  965
  1,031
  1,100
  1,173
  1,249
  1,330
  1,415
  1,503
  1,597
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  129
  107
  132
  158
  186
  215
  245
  276
  309
  343
  378
  408
  447
  488
  530
  575
  622
  671
  722
  776
  832
  891
  954
  1,019
  1,088
  1,160
  1,236
  1,316
  1,400
  1,488
  1,581
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -50
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
Free cash flow, $m
  79
  66
  89
  113
  138
  164
  191
  219
  249
  280
  312
  338
  373
  410
  449
  489
  531
  575
  622
  671
  722
  775
  832
  891
  953
  1,018
  1,087
  1,159
  1,235
  1,315
  1,400
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -52
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  27
  88
  112
  137
  163
  190
  218
  247
  278
  310
  343
  371
  407
  445
  485
  527
  571
  617
  665
  716
  769
  825
  883
  945
  1,010
  1,078
  1,149
  1,225
  1,304
  1,387
  1,475
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -66
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  295
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  338
  64
  87
  111
  136
  162
  189
  218
  247
  278
  303
  337
  372
  409
  448
  488
  530
  575
  621
  670
  721
  775
  832
  891
  954
  1,019
  1,089
  1,161
  1,238
  1,318
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  324
  59
  76
  91
  105
  118
  128
  136
  142
  146
  144
  144
  141
  137
  131
  124
  115
  106
  96
  85
  75
  64
  55
  45
  37
  30
  23
  18
  14
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Silicon Laboratories Inc. is a provider of silicon, software and solutions for the Internet of Things (IoT), Internet infrastructure, industrial, consumer and automotive markets. The Company operates through mixed-signal analog intensive products segment. It provides analog-intensive, mixed-signal solutions for use in a range of electronic products in various applications for the IoT market. It provides a range of timing and isolation products for infrastructure applications, including clocks and oscillators for networking equipment, data centers and wireless base stations, as well as digital isolators and current sensors for industrial power supplies and hybrid-electric vehicles. It provides broadcast products, such as television tuners and demodulators and automotive radio tuners, and access products, including subscriber line interface circuits for voice over Internet Protocol, embedded modems, and Power over Ethernet power source equipment and powered device integrated circuits.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Silicon Laboratories (SLAB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 60.6
Price to Sales 5.3
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 8.8%
Total Debt to Equity 8.8%
Interest Coverage 34
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Total Capital 7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Equity 7.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.2%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 9.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 6.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

SLAB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SLAB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $698 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Silicon Laboratories. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Silicon Laboratories. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SLAB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SLAB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Silicon Laboratories, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Silicon Laboratories.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SLAB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $404 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SLAB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Silicon Laboratories.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Silicon Laboratories. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SLAB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SLAB are equal to 34.8%.

Life of production assets of 12.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Silicon Laboratories operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SLAB is equal to 8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $827 million for Silicon Laboratories - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.493 million for Silicon Laboratories is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Silicon Laboratories at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Silicon Laboratories   [Sep-12-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 3 High-Growth Stocks That Could Soar   [Aug-03-17 12:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Silicon Labs tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-26-17 09:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Silicon Labs to Present at Upcoming Investor Conference   [May-25-17 08:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Silicon Labs Keeps the Earnings Beats Coming   [Apr-27-17 03:41PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Silicon Labs beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 07:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top-Rated Stocks: Silicon Laboratories Sees Composite Rating Climb To 96   [Mar-23-17 11:09AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] Silicon Labs Stock Seen Valued at $80   [06:50AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Silicon Laboratories Delivers Another Quarterly Beat   [Feb-01-17 04:40PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of SLAB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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