Intrinsic value of Super Micro Computer - SMCI

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$24.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$24.60

 
Intrinsic value

$29.22

 
Up/down potential

+19%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.30
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,216
  2,260
  2,312
  2,372
  2,438
  2,512
  2,593
  2,682
  2,777
  2,880
  2,991
  3,109
  3,235
  3,370
  3,513
  3,664
  3,825
  3,995
  4,174
  4,364
  4,565
  4,776
  5,000
  5,235
  5,483
  5,744
  6,018
  6,308
  6,612
  6,932
  7,269
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,093
  2,141
  2,196
  2,258
  2,326
  2,402
  2,483
  2,572
  2,667
  2,770
  2,879
  2,996
  3,120
  3,253
  3,393
  3,542
  3,699
  3,865
  4,041
  4,227
  4,423
  4,630
  4,847
  5,077
  5,319
  5,573
  5,841
  6,123
  6,419
  6,731
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,109
  2,093
  2,141
  2,196
  2,258
  2,326
  2,402
  2,483
  2,572
  2,667
  2,770
  2,879
  2,996
  3,120
  3,253
  3,393
  3,542
  3,699
  3,865
  4,041
  4,227
  4,423
  4,630
  4,847
  5,077
  5,319
  5,573
  5,841
  6,123
  6,419
  6,731
Operating income, $m
  107
  167
  171
  176
  180
  186
  192
  198
  206
  213
  221
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  353
  370
  387
  406
  425
  445
  467
  489
  513
  538
EBITDA, $m
  120
  180
  185
  189
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  293
  305
  319
  333
  348
  365
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  580
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
Earnings before tax, $m
  105
  166
  169
  174
  178
  183
  189
  195
  201
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  251
  262
  273
  284
  297
  309
  323
  338
  353
  369
  386
  403
  422
  442
  463
  484
  507
Tax expense, $m
  33
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
Net income, $m
  72
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  158
  163
  170
  176
  184
  191
  199
  208
  216
  226
  236
  246
  258
  269
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  354
  370

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  181
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,166
  1,005
  1,028
  1,054
  1,084
  1,117
  1,153
  1,192
  1,234
  1,280
  1,329
  1,382
  1,438
  1,498
  1,561
  1,628
  1,700
  1,775
  1,855
  1,940
  2,029
  2,123
  2,222
  2,327
  2,437
  2,553
  2,675
  2,803
  2,939
  3,081
  3,231
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  985
  1,005
  1,028
  1,054
  1,084
  1,117
  1,153
  1,192
  1,234
  1,280
  1,329
  1,382
  1,438
  1,498
  1,561
  1,628
  1,700
  1,775
  1,855
  1,940
  2,029
  2,123
  2,222
  2,327
  2,437
  2,553
  2,675
  2,803
  2,939
  3,081
  3,231
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.250
  2.249
  2.249
  2.250
  2.249
  2.249
  2.249
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.251
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.251
  2.250
  2.251
  2.250
  2.249
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
Average production assets, $m
  176
  179
  183
  187
  193
  198
  205
  212
  219
  228
  236
  246
  256
  266
  277
  289
  302
  316
  330
  345
  361
  377
  395
  414
  433
  454
  475
  498
  522
  548
  574
Working capital, $m
  574
  457
  467
  479
  493
  508
  524
  542
  561
  582
  604
  628
  654
  681
  710
  740
  773
  807
  843
  882
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,057
  1,107
  1,160
  1,216
  1,274
  1,336
  1,400
  1,468
Total debt, $m
  94
  48
  57
  67
  79
  92
  107
  122
  139
  157
  177
  198
  220
  244
  269
  296
  324
  354
  386
  419
  454
  492
  531
  573
  616
  662
  711
  762
  816
  872
  932
Total liabilities, $m
  444
  399
  408
  418
  430
  443
  458
  473
  490
  508
  528
  549
  571
  595
  620
  647
  675
  705
  737
  770
  805
  843
  882
  924
  967
  1,013
  1,062
  1,113
  1,167
  1,223
  1,283
Total equity, $m
  721
  606
  620
  636
  654
  673
  695
  719
  744
  772
  802
  833
  867
  903
  941
  982
  1,025
  1,071
  1,119
  1,170
  1,223
  1,280
  1,340
  1,403
  1,469
  1,539
  1,613
  1,690
  1,772
  1,858
  1,948
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,165
  1,005
  1,028
  1,054
  1,084
  1,116
  1,153
  1,192
  1,234
  1,280
  1,330
  1,382
  1,438
  1,498
  1,561
  1,629
  1,700
  1,776
  1,856
  1,940
  2,028
  2,123
  2,222
  2,327
  2,436
  2,552
  2,675
  2,803
  2,939
  3,081
  3,231
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.130
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.548
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  72
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  158
  163
  170
  176
  184
  191
  199
  208
  216
  226
  236
  246
  258
  269
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  354
  370
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Funds from operations, $m
  114
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  153
  158
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  196
  204
  213
  221
  231
  241
  251
  263
  274
  287
  300
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  138
  127
  129
  131
  133
  137
  140
  144
  148
  153
  158
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  252
  264
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -35
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
Free cash flow, $m
  73
  122
  109
  110
  112
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  135
  139
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  59
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  13
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  59
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  86
  130
  119
  121
  123
  126
  130
  133
  137
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  226
  235
  246
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  322
  337
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -102
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  245
  105
  105
  106
  107
  108
  110
  112
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  131
  136
  140
  145
  151
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  217
  226
  236
  247
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  235
  96
  91
  87
  83
  78
  74
  70
  66
  61
  57
  53
  48
  44
  40
  36
  32
  28
  24
  21
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and provides high performance server solutions based on modular and open architecture. It offers a range of server, storage, blade, workstation, and full rack solutions, as well as networking devices, server management software, and technology support and services. The company also provides a range of application optimized server solutions, including rackmount and blade server systems; and server subsystems and accessories comprising server boards, and chassis and power supplies, as well as other system accessories, including microprocessors, and memory and disc drives. In addition, it provides customer support services and hardware enhanced services. The company offers its products to data center, cloud computing, enterprise IT, big data, high performance computing, and Internet of Things/embedded markets. It sells its server systems, and server subsystems and accessories through direct sales force, as well as through distributors that comprise value added resellers and system integrators, and OEMs. The company has operations primarily in San Jose, California; the Netherlands; Taiwan; China; and Japan. Super Micro Computer, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.6
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 46.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 5.5%
Total Debt to Equity 13%
Interest Coverage 54
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 9.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
EBITDA Margin 5.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Operating Margin 4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Effective Tax Rate 31.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SMCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2216 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Super Micro Computer. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Super Micro Computer. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SMCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Super Micro Computer, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Super Micro Computer.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Super Micro Computer.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Super Micro Computer. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMCI are equal to 7.9%.

Life of production assets of 13.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Super Micro Computer operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMCI is equal to 20.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $721 million for Super Micro Computer - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.126 million for Super Micro Computer is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Super Micro Computer at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Super Micro May Top HP Enterprise   [Apr-14-17 03:35PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Supermicro Confirms High Standard In Cyber Security   [Feb-24-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Super Micro beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Jan-26-17 04:58PM  AP]
▶ Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-08-16 05:36PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Cray, NetScout Ready to Rise   [Jul-28-16 02:50PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Ericsson, Humana Top Tuesdays 52-Week Low Club   [04:04PM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Stocks to Watch: Netflix, Monsanto, J&J, VMware, IBM, Goldman   [09:30AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Super Micro Computer shares drop after outlook slashed   [Jul-18-16 05:40PM  at MarketWatch]
▶ [$$] Super Micro Computer Lowers Guidance, Shares Fall   [05:23PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of SMCI Financial statements of SMCI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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