Intrinsic value of Super Micro Computer - SMCI

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$24.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$24.30

 
Intrinsic value

$30.59

 
Up/down potential

+26%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.30
  18.40
  17.06
  15.85
  14.77
  13.79
  12.91
  12.12
  11.41
  10.77
  10.19
  9.67
  9.21
  8.78
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
Revenue, $m
  2,216
  2,624
  3,071
  3,558
  4,084
  4,647
  5,247
  5,883
  6,554
  7,260
  8,000
  8,774
  9,581
  10,423
  11,299
  12,211
  13,158
  14,143
  15,166
  16,229
  17,334
  18,483
  19,679
  20,922
  22,217
  23,565
  24,970
  26,435
  27,963
  29,557
  31,221
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,430
  2,844
  3,295
  3,782
  4,303
  4,859
  5,448
  6,069
  6,723
  7,408
  8,125
  8,872
  9,652
  10,463
  11,307
  12,184
  13,096
  14,044
  15,028
  16,052
  17,116
  18,222
  19,374
  20,573
  21,821
  23,122
  24,479
  25,893
  27,370
  28,911
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,109
  2,430
  2,844
  3,295
  3,782
  4,303
  4,859
  5,448
  6,069
  6,723
  7,408
  8,125
  8,872
  9,652
  10,463
  11,307
  12,184
  13,096
  14,044
  15,028
  16,052
  17,116
  18,222
  19,374
  20,573
  21,821
  23,122
  24,479
  25,893
  27,370
  28,911
Operating income, $m
  107
  194
  227
  263
  302
  344
  388
  435
  485
  537
  592
  649
  709
  771
  836
  904
  974
  1,047
  1,122
  1,201
  1,283
  1,368
  1,456
  1,548
  1,644
  1,744
  1,848
  1,956
  2,069
  2,187
  2,310
EBITDA, $m
  120
  210
  245
  284
  326
  371
  419
  470
  523
  580
  639
  701
  765
  832
  902
  975
  1,051
  1,129
  1,211
  1,296
  1,384
  1,476
  1,571
  1,671
  1,774
  1,882
  1,994
  2,111
  2,233
  2,360
  2,493
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  1
  4
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  160
  170
Earnings before tax, $m
  105
  193
  223
  257
  293
  331
  372
  415
  461
  509
  559
  612
  667
  724
  784
  846
  911
  978
  1,047
  1,120
  1,195
  1,273
  1,354
  1,439
  1,527
  1,619
  1,715
  1,814
  1,918
  2,027
  2,140
Tax expense, $m
  33
  52
  60
  69
  79
  89
  100
  112
  124
  137
  151
  165
  180
  196
  212
  228
  246
  264
  283
  302
  323
  344
  366
  389
  412
  437
  463
  490
  518
  547
  578
Net income, $m
  72
  141
  163
  187
  214
  242
  271
  303
  337
  372
  408
  447
  487
  529
  572
  618
  665
  714
  764
  817
  872
  929
  989
  1,050
  1,115
  1,182
  1,252
  1,324
  1,400
  1,480
  1,562

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  181
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,166
  1,166
  1,365
  1,581
  1,815
  2,065
  2,332
  2,615
  2,913
  3,227
  3,556
  3,899
  4,258
  4,632
  5,022
  5,427
  5,848
  6,286
  6,740
  7,213
  7,704
  8,215
  8,746
  9,299
  9,874
  10,473
  11,098
  11,749
  12,428
  13,136
  13,876
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  985
  1,166
  1,365
  1,581
  1,815
  2,065
  2,332
  2,615
  2,913
  3,227
  3,556
  3,899
  4,258
  4,632
  5,022
  5,427
  5,848
  6,286
  6,740
  7,213
  7,704
  8,215
  8,746
  9,299
  9,874
  10,473
  11,098
  11,749
  12,428
  13,136
  13,876
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
  2.250
Average production assets, $m
  176
  207
  243
  281
  323
  367
  415
  465
  518
  574
  632
  693
  757
  823
  893
  965
  1,039
  1,117
  1,198
  1,282
  1,369
  1,460
  1,555
  1,653
  1,755
  1,862
  1,973
  2,088
  2,209
  2,335
  2,466
Working capital, $m
  574
  530
  620
  719
  825
  939
  1,060
  1,188
  1,324
  1,467
  1,616
  1,772
  1,935
  2,105
  2,282
  2,467
  2,658
  2,857
  3,063
  3,278
  3,502
  3,734
  3,975
  4,226
  4,488
  4,760
  5,044
  5,340
  5,648
  5,970
  6,307
Total debt, $m
  94
  112
  191
  277
  370
  469
  575
  687
  805
  930
  1,061
  1,197
  1,340
  1,488
  1,643
  1,803
  1,971
  2,144
  2,325
  2,513
  2,708
  2,910
  3,121
  3,341
  3,569
  3,807
  4,055
  4,313
  4,583
  4,864
  5,158
Total liabilities, $m
  444
  463
  542
  628
  721
  820
  926
  1,038
  1,156
  1,281
  1,412
  1,548
  1,691
  1,839
  1,994
  2,154
  2,322
  2,495
  2,676
  2,864
  3,059
  3,261
  3,472
  3,692
  3,920
  4,158
  4,406
  4,664
  4,934
  5,215
  5,509
Total equity, $m
  721
  703
  823
  954
  1,094
  1,245
  1,406
  1,577
  1,757
  1,946
  2,144
  2,351
  2,568
  2,793
  3,028
  3,272
  3,526
  3,790
  4,064
  4,349
  4,646
  4,954
  5,274
  5,607
  5,954
  6,315
  6,692
  7,085
  7,494
  7,921
  8,367
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,165
  1,166
  1,365
  1,582
  1,815
  2,065
  2,332
  2,615
  2,913
  3,227
  3,556
  3,899
  4,259
  4,632
  5,022
  5,426
  5,848
  6,285
  6,740
  7,213
  7,705
  8,215
  8,746
  9,299
  9,874
  10,473
  11,098
  11,749
  12,428
  13,136
  13,876
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.130
  0.160
  0.230
  0.290
  0.340
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.548
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  72
  141
  163
  187
  214
  242
  271
  303
  337
  372
  408
  447
  487
  529
  572
  618
  665
  714
  764
  817
  872
  929
  989
  1,050
  1,115
  1,182
  1,252
  1,324
  1,400
  1,480
  1,562
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
  183
Funds from operations, $m
  114
  156
  181
  208
  237
  269
  302
  338
  375
  414
  455
  498
  543
  590
  638
  689
  742
  796
  853
  912
  974
  1,037
  1,104
  1,173
  1,245
  1,320
  1,398
  1,479
  1,564
  1,653
  1,745
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  82
  90
  98
  106
  114
  121
  128
  136
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  272
  284
  296
  309
  322
  336
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  86
  91
  110
  131
  155
  181
  209
  239
  272
  306
  342
  380
  420
  461
  505
  550
  598
  647
  697
  750
  805
  862
  922
  983
  1,047
  1,114
  1,183
  1,255
  1,330
  1,409
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -173
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -35
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -304
Free cash flow, $m
  73
  41
  40
  53
  69
  87
  106
  128
  152
  177
  205
  234
  265
  297
  331
  367
  404
  443
  483
  525
  568
  613
  660
  708
  759
  811
  865
  921
  980
  1,041
  1,104
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  72
  79
  86
  93
  99
  106
  112
  118
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  258
  270
  281
  294
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  0
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  13
  72
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  112
  118
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  258
  270
  281
  294
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  86
  113
  119
  139
  162
  186
  212
  240
  270
  302
  335
  370
  407
  446
  486
  528
  571
  616
  663
  712
  763
  816
  871
  928
  987
  1,049
  1,113
  1,180
  1,250
  1,322
  1,398
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -102
  -109
  -120
  -130
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -274
  -285
  -296
  -308
  -320
  -333
  -347
  -361
  -377
  -393
  -409
  -427
  -446
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  127
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  131
  0
  9
  21
  35
  51
  70
  90
  113
  137
  163
  191
  220
  251
  283
  317
  353
  389
  427
  467
  508
  550
  594
  640
  687
  736
  787
  840
  895
  952
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  126
  0
  8
  17
  27
  37
  47
  56
  65
  72
  77
  81
  84
  84
  83
  81
  77
  72
  66
  59
  53
  46
  39
  33
  27
  21
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and provides high performance server solutions based on modular and open architecture. It offers a range of server, storage, blade, workstation, and full rack solutions, as well as networking devices, server management software, and technology support and services. The company also provides a range of application optimized server solutions, including rackmount and blade server systems; and server subsystems and accessories comprising server boards, and chassis and power supplies, as well as other system accessories, including microprocessors, and memory and disc drives. In addition, it provides customer support services and hardware enhanced services. The company offers its products to data center, cloud computing, enterprise IT, big data, high performance computing, and Internet of Things/embedded markets. It sells its server systems, and server subsystems and accessories through direct sales force, as well as through distributors that comprise value added resellers and system integrators, and OEMs. The company has operations primarily in San Jose, California; the Netherlands; Taiwan; China; and Japan. Super Micro Computer, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 5.5%
Total Debt to Equity 13%
Interest Coverage 54
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 9.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
EBITDA Margin 5.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Operating Margin 4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Effective Tax Rate 31.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SMCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2216 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Super Micro Computer. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Super Micro Computer. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SMCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Super Micro Computer, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Super Micro Computer.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Super Micro Computer.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Super Micro Computer. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMCI are equal to 7.9%.

Life of production assets of 13.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Super Micro Computer operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMCI is equal to 20.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $721 million for Super Micro Computer - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.98 million for Super Micro Computer is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Super Micro Computer at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Super Micro misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Apr-27-17 05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Super Micro May Top HP Enterprise   [Apr-14-17 03:35PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Supermicro Confirms High Standard In Cyber Security   [Feb-24-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Super Micro beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Jan-26-17 04:58PM  AP]
▶ Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-08-16 05:36PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Cray, NetScout Ready to Rise   [Jul-28-16 02:50PM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of SMCI Financial statements of SMCI Annual reports of SMCI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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