Intrinsic value of Scotts Miracle-Gro - SMG

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$96.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$96.60

 
Intrinsic value

$35.49

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.96
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
Revenue, $m
  2,836
  2,949
  3,070
  3,199
  3,336
  3,481
  3,634
  3,796
  3,968
  4,149
  4,341
  4,543
  4,756
  4,980
  5,216
  5,465
  5,727
  6,003
  6,293
  6,598
  6,919
  7,257
  7,612
  7,985
  8,377
  8,789
  9,222
  9,677
  10,156
  10,658
  11,186
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,665
  2,773
  2,887
  3,009
  3,138
  3,275
  3,419
  3,572
  3,734
  3,904
  4,047
  4,236
  4,436
  4,647
  4,869
  5,102
  5,348
  5,606
  5,878
  6,164
  6,465
  6,781
  7,113
  7,463
  7,830
  8,216
  8,621
  9,047
  9,495
  9,965
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,377
  2,665
  2,773
  2,887
  3,009
  3,138
  3,275
  3,419
  3,572
  3,734
  3,904
  4,047
  4,236
  4,436
  4,647
  4,869
  5,102
  5,348
  5,606
  5,878
  6,164
  6,465
  6,781
  7,113
  7,463
  7,830
  8,216
  8,621
  9,047
  9,495
  9,965
Operating income, $m
  459
  285
  298
  312
  327
  343
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  496
  519
  544
  569
  597
  625
  655
  687
  720
  755
  792
  831
  872
  914
  959
  1,007
  1,056
  1,109
  1,163
  1,221
EBITDA, $m
  533
  379
  395
  411
  429
  447
  467
  488
  510
  533
  558
  584
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
  771
  809
  848
  889
  933
  978
  1,026
  1,077
  1,129
  1,185
  1,244
  1,305
  1,370
  1,437
Interest expense (income), $m
  54
  56
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
  245
  258
  273
  288
  304
Earnings before tax, $m
  393
  229
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
  310
  324
  339
  392
  409
  427
  446
  465
  486
  508
  531
  555
  580
  607
  635
  664
  695
  728
  762
  798
  836
  875
  917
Tax expense, $m
  140
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  92
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  215
  226
  236
  248
Net income, $m
  315
  167
  174
  182
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  286
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
  371
  387
  405
  424
  443
  463
  485
  508
  531
  556
  583
  610
  639
  670

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,809
  2,869
  2,987
  3,112
  3,245
  3,386
  3,535
  3,693
  3,860
  4,036
  4,223
  4,419
  4,626
  4,844
  5,074
  5,316
  5,571
  5,839
  6,122
  6,418
  6,731
  7,059
  7,404
  7,767
  8,149
  8,550
  8,971
  9,414
  9,879
  10,368
  10,881
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,759
  2,869
  2,987
  3,112
  3,245
  3,386
  3,535
  3,693
  3,860
  4,036
  4,223
  4,419
  4,626
  4,844
  5,074
  5,316
  5,571
  5,839
  6,122
  6,418
  6,731
  7,059
  7,404
  7,767
  8,149
  8,550
  8,971
  9,414
  9,879
  10,368
  10,881
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
Average production assets, $m
  939
  976
  1,016
  1,059
  1,104
  1,152
  1,203
  1,257
  1,313
  1,373
  1,437
  1,504
  1,574
  1,648
  1,727
  1,809
  1,896
  1,987
  2,083
  2,184
  2,290
  2,402
  2,519
  2,643
  2,773
  2,909
  3,053
  3,203
  3,362
  3,528
  3,703
Working capital, $m
  399
  554
  577
  601
  627
  654
  683
  714
  746
  780
  816
  854
  894
  936
  981
  1,027
  1,077
  1,129
  1,183
  1,240
  1,301
  1,364
  1,431
  1,501
  1,575
  1,652
  1,734
  1,819
  1,909
  2,004
  2,103
Total debt, $m
  1,316
  1,348
  1,435
  1,528
  1,626
  1,731
  1,841
  1,959
  2,082
  2,213
  2,351
  2,496
  2,650
  2,812
  2,982
  3,161
  3,350
  3,549
  3,758
  3,978
  4,209
  4,453
  4,709
  4,978
  5,260
  5,557
  5,870
  6,198
  6,542
  6,905
  7,285
Total liabilities, $m
  2,094
  2,126
  2,213
  2,306
  2,404
  2,509
  2,619
  2,737
  2,860
  2,991
  3,129
  3,274
  3,428
  3,590
  3,760
  3,939
  4,128
  4,327
  4,536
  4,756
  4,987
  5,231
  5,487
  5,756
  6,038
  6,335
  6,648
  6,976
  7,320
  7,683
  8,063
Total equity, $m
  715
  743
  774
  806
  840
  877
  916
  956
  1,000
  1,045
  1,094
  1,145
  1,198
  1,255
  1,314
  1,377
  1,443
  1,512
  1,585
  1,662
  1,743
  1,828
  1,918
  2,012
  2,111
  2,214
  2,323
  2,438
  2,559
  2,685
  2,818
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,809
  2,869
  2,987
  3,112
  3,244
  3,386
  3,535
  3,693
  3,860
  4,036
  4,223
  4,419
  4,626
  4,845
  5,074
  5,316
  5,571
  5,839
  6,121
  6,418
  6,730
  7,059
  7,405
  7,768
  8,149
  8,549
  8,971
  9,414
  9,879
  10,368
  10,881
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.841
  1.810
  1.860
  1.900
  1.940
  1.970
  2.010
  2.050
  2.080
  2.120
  2.150
  2.180
  2.210
  2.240
  2.270
  2.300
  2.320
  2.350
  2.370
  2.390
  2.410
  2.440
  2.460
  2.470
  2.490
  2.510
  2.530
  2.540
  2.560
  2.570
  2.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.241
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  315
  167
  174
  182
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  286
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
  371
  387
  405
  424
  443
  463
  485
  508
  531
  556
  583
  610
  639
  670
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  74
  94
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  121
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  155
  162
  170
  179
  187
  197
  206
  217
Funds from operations, $m
  -7
  262
  271
  281
  291
  303
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  374
  391
  408
  426
  445
  466
  487
  509
  533
  557
  583
  611
  640
  670
  701
  735
  770
  807
  845
  886
Change in working capital, $m
  -244
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  94
  99
Cash from operations, $m
  237
  524
  248
  257
  266
  275
  286
  296
  308
  320
  333
  336
  351
  366
  382
  399
  416
  435
  455
  475
  497
  520
  544
  569
  596
  624
  653
  684
  717
  751
  787
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -197
  -206
New CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -175
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -134
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -257
  -270
  -285
  -298
  -313
  -330
  -345
  -363
  -381
Free cash flow, $m
  103
  431
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  172
  178
  183
  189
  186
  192
  200
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  253
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  116
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  153
  162
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  328
  345
  362
  381
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -116
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  153
  162
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  328
  345
  362
  381
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  96
  513
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  327
  331
  346
  361
  378
  395
  413
  432
  452
  473
  495
  518
  542
  568
  594
  623
  652
  683
  716
  750
  786
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -94
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -133
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  485
  208
  215
  223
  231
  239
  248
  258
  268
  279
  280
  292
  305
  318
  332
  347
  362
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  543
  569
  595
  624
  653
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  451
  178
  169
  160
  149
  138
  127
  116
  104
  93
  79
  69
  59
  50
  42
  34
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company manufactures, markets, and sells consumer lawn and garden products worldwide. Its Lawn Care segment offers lawn fertilizers, grass seed products, spreaders, other durable products, and outdoor cleaners, as well as lawn-related weed, pest, and disease control products. The company’s Gardening and Landscape segment provides water soluble and continuous-release plant foods, potting mixes and garden soils, mulch and decorative groundcover products, plant-related pest and disease control products, organic garden products, live goods and seeding solutions, and hydroponic gardening products. Its Controls segment offers insect and rodent control products, and selective and non-selective weed control products to protect homes and maintain external home areas. The company offers its products under the Scotts, Turf Builder, EZ Seed, Water Smart, PatchMaster, EverGreen, Fertiligène, Substral, Miracle-Gro Patch Magic, Weedol, Pathclear, KB, Celaflor, EdgeGuard, Snap, Handy Green II, Scotts OxiCleanTM3, Miracle-Gro, Osmocote, Hyponex, Earthgro, SuperSoil, Ortho, Miracle-Gro Organic Choice, Nature’s Care, Whitney Farms, EcoScraps, General Hydroponics, Gavita, AeroGarden, Substral, ASEF, Scotts EcoSense, Naturen, Fafard, Ortho, Tomcat, Roundup, Groundclear, Nexa Lotte, Home Defence, Home Defense, Weedol, and Pathclear brand names. It serves home centers, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, large hardware chains, independent hardware stores, nurseries, garden centers, food and drug stores, and indoor gardening and hydroponic stores through a direct sales force and network of brokers and distributors. The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Marysville, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.5
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 8.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 158.2%
Total Debt to Equity 184.1%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Total Capital 16.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Equity 47.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
EBITDA Margin 18.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Operating Margin 16.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Net Profit Margin 11.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 35.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Payout Ratio 37.1%

SMG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2836 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scotts Miracle-Gro. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Scotts Miracle-Gro. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for SMG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scotts Miracle-Gro, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scotts Miracle-Gro.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for Scotts Miracle-Gro.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scotts Miracle-Gro. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMG are equal to 33.1%.

Life of production assets of 17.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scotts Miracle-Gro operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMG is equal to 18.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $715 million for Scotts Miracle-Gro - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.964 million for Scotts Miracle-Gro is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scotts Miracle-Gro at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.8 billion.


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Stock chart of SMG Financial statements of SMG
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