Intrinsic value of Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa - SMI

Previous Close

$7.38

  Intrinsic Value

$3.01

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$7.38

 
Intrinsic value

$3.01

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.32
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,914
  2,972
  3,041
  3,119
  3,207
  3,304
  3,410
  3,527
  3,652
  3,788
  3,933
  4,089
  4,255
  4,431
  4,619
  4,818
  5,029
  5,253
  5,489
  5,739
  6,003
  6,281
  6,574
  6,884
  7,210
  7,553
  7,914
  8,294
  8,695
  9,116
  9,559
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,458
  2,515
  2,579
  2,652
  2,732
  2,820
  2,916
  3,020
  3,132
  3,253
  3,381
  3,518
  3,665
  3,820
  3,985
  4,159
  4,344
  4,540
  4,746
  4,964
  5,194
  5,437
  5,693
  5,962
  6,246
  6,545
  6,860
  7,191
  7,539
  7,905
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  172
  177
  181
  185
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  220
  226
  232
  237
  243
  249
  256
  262
  269
  275
  282
  289
  296
  304
  311
  319
  327
  335
  344
  352
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,575
  2,630
  2,692
  2,760
  2,837
  2,922
  3,015
  3,116
  3,225
  3,342
  3,468
  3,601
  3,744
  3,897
  4,057
  4,228
  4,408
  4,600
  4,802
  5,015
  5,239
  5,476
  5,726
  5,989
  6,266
  6,557
  6,864
  7,187
  7,526
  7,883
  8,257
Operating income, $m
  339
  342
  350
  359
  369
  381
  395
  410
  427
  445
  465
  487
  510
  535
  562
  590
  621
  653
  688
  724
  763
  804
  848
  894
  943
  995
  1,050
  1,108
  1,169
  1,233
  1,301
EBITDA, $m
  1,069
  1,086
  1,111
  1,139
  1,172
  1,208
  1,249
  1,293
  1,341
  1,393
  1,450
  1,510
  1,575
  1,644
  1,718
  1,796
  1,879
  1,968
  2,062
  2,161
  2,266
  2,376
  2,494
  2,617
  2,748
  2,886
  3,031
  3,184
  3,345
  3,515
  3,694
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  84
  88
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  131
  140
  149
  159
  169
  180
  192
  205
  218
  233
  247
  263
  280
  298
  316
  336
  356
  378
  401
  425
  450
  477
Earnings before tax, $m
  310
  258
  261
  266
  272
  279
  286
  295
  304
  314
  326
  338
  351
  366
  381
  398
  416
  435
  455
  477
  500
  524
  551
  578
  608
  639
  672
  707
  744
  783
  824
Tax expense, $m
  -6
  70
  71
  72
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  223
Net income, $m
  377
  188
  191
  194
  198
  203
  209
  215
  222
  229
  238
  247
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  422
  444
  466
  490
  516
  543
  571
  602

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2,158
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  10,115
  8,121
  8,308
  8,521
  8,761
  9,027
  9,318
  9,635
  9,979
  10,349
  10,746
  11,171
  11,624
  12,107
  12,620
  13,165
  13,741
  14,352
  14,998
  15,680
  16,401
  17,161
  17,963
  18,808
  19,698
  20,636
  21,623
  22,663
  23,756
  24,907
  26,117
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,957
  8,121
  8,308
  8,521
  8,761
  9,027
  9,318
  9,635
  9,979
  10,349
  10,746
  11,171
  11,624
  12,107
  12,620
  13,165
  13,741
  14,352
  14,998
  15,680
  16,401
  17,161
  17,963
  18,808
  19,698
  20,636
  21,623
  22,663
  23,756
  24,907
  26,117
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
Average production assets, $m
  5,032
  5,133
  5,251
  5,386
  5,538
  5,706
  5,890
  6,090
  6,307
  6,541
  6,792
  7,061
  7,348
  7,653
  7,977
  8,321
  8,686
  9,072
  9,480
  9,911
  10,367
  10,847
  11,354
  11,888
  12,451
  13,044
  13,668
  14,325
  15,016
  15,743
  16,508
Working capital, $m
  1,703
  244
  249
  256
  263
  271
  280
  289
  299
  311
  323
  335
  349
  363
  379
  395
  412
  431
  450
  471
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
  619
  649
  680
  713
  747
  784
Total debt, $m
  3,106
  2,518
  2,642
  2,783
  2,942
  3,118
  3,311
  3,521
  3,748
  3,993
  4,256
  4,537
  4,837
  5,157
  5,497
  5,857
  6,239
  6,643
  7,071
  7,522
  7,999
  8,503
  9,033
  9,593
  10,182
  10,803
  11,457
  12,145
  12,869
  13,630
  14,431
Total liabilities, $m
  5,965
  5,376
  5,500
  5,641
  5,800
  5,976
  6,169
  6,379
  6,606
  6,851
  7,114
  7,395
  7,695
  8,015
  8,355
  8,715
  9,097
  9,501
  9,929
  10,380
  10,857
  11,361
  11,891
  12,451
  13,040
  13,661
  14,315
  15,003
  15,727
  16,488
  17,289
Total equity, $m
  4,151
  2,745
  2,808
  2,880
  2,961
  3,051
  3,149
  3,257
  3,373
  3,498
  3,632
  3,776
  3,929
  4,092
  4,266
  4,450
  4,645
  4,851
  5,069
  5,300
  5,543
  5,800
  6,071
  6,357
  6,658
  6,975
  7,309
  7,660
  8,030
  8,418
  8,827
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10,116
  8,121
  8,308
  8,521
  8,761
  9,027
  9,318
  9,636
  9,979
  10,349
  10,746
  11,171
  11,624
  12,107
  12,621
  13,165
  13,742
  14,352
  14,998
  15,680
  16,400
  17,161
  17,962
  18,808
  19,698
  20,636
  21,624
  22,663
  23,757
  24,906
  26,116
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.748
  0.920
  0.940
  0.970
  0.990
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.340
  1.370
  1.390
  1.420
  1.440
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.311
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338
  0.338

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  377
  188
  191
  194
  198
  203
  209
  215
  222
  229
  238
  247
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  422
  444
  466
  490
  516
  543
  571
  602
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  730
  744
  761
  781
  803
  827
  854
  883
  914
  948
  984
  1,023
  1,065
  1,109
  1,156
  1,206
  1,259
  1,315
  1,374
  1,436
  1,502
  1,572
  1,645
  1,723
  1,804
  1,890
  1,981
  2,076
  2,176
  2,282
  2,392
Funds from operations, $m
  890
  932
  952
  975
  1,001
  1,030
  1,062
  1,098
  1,136
  1,177
  1,222
  1,270
  1,321
  1,376
  1,434
  1,496
  1,562
  1,632
  1,706
  1,784
  1,867
  1,955
  2,047
  2,145
  2,248
  2,357
  2,471
  2,592
  2,719
  2,853
  2,994
Change in working capital, $m
  -87
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  977
  927
  946
  968
  994
  1,022
  1,054
  1,088
  1,126
  1,166
  1,210
  1,257
  1,308
  1,362
  1,419
  1,480
  1,545
  1,614
  1,687
  1,764
  1,846
  1,932
  2,023
  2,120
  2,221
  2,329
  2,442
  2,561
  2,686
  2,819
  2,958
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -729
  -744
  -761
  -781
  -803
  -827
  -854
  -883
  -914
  -948
  -984
  -1,023
  -1,065
  -1,109
  -1,156
  -1,206
  -1,259
  -1,315
  -1,374
  -1,436
  -1,502
  -1,572
  -1,645
  -1,723
  -1,804
  -1,890
  -1,981
  -2,076
  -2,176
  -2,282
New CAPEX, $m
  -2,843
  -101
  -118
  -135
  -152
  -168
  -184
  -201
  -217
  -234
  -251
  -269
  -287
  -305
  -324
  -344
  -365
  -386
  -408
  -431
  -455
  -481
  -507
  -534
  -563
  -593
  -624
  -657
  -691
  -727
  -765
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2,443
  -830
  -862
  -896
  -933
  -971
  -1,011
  -1,055
  -1,100
  -1,148
  -1,199
  -1,253
  -1,310
  -1,370
  -1,433
  -1,500
  -1,571
  -1,645
  -1,723
  -1,805
  -1,891
  -1,983
  -2,079
  -2,179
  -2,286
  -2,397
  -2,514
  -2,638
  -2,767
  -2,903
  -3,047
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,466
  97
  84
  73
  62
  52
  43
  34
  26
  18
  11
  4
  -2
  -8
  -14
  -20
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,766
  106
  124
  141
  159
  176
  193
  210
  227
  245
  263
  281
  300
  320
  340
  360
  382
  404
  428
  452
  477
  503
  531
  559
  589
  621
  654
  688
  724
  762
  801
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2,615
  106
  124
  141
  159
  176
  193
  210
  227
  245
  263
  281
  300
  320
  340
  360
  382
  404
  428
  452
  477
  503
  531
  559
  589
  621
  654
  688
  724
  762
  801
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,121
  203
  208
  214
  220
  228
  235
  244
  253
  263
  274
  286
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  411
  431
  452
  475
  499
  525
  552
  581
  611
  643
  677
  712
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -421
  -58
  -63
  -72
  -81
  -90
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -334
  -351
  -370
  -389
  -409
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,464
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,609
  145
  142
  139
  138
  137
  137
  137
  138
  140
  142
  145
  148
  152
  156
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  260
  273
  288
  303
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,543
  133
  123
  115
  107
  99
  92
  86
  79
  73
  67
  62
  56
  51
  46
  41
  36
  32
  28
  24
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation is an investment holding company principally engaged in the computer-aided design, manufacture, packaging and trading of integrated circuits (IC), as well as the provision of other semiconductor services. The Company is also involved in the design and manufacture of semiconductor masks. The Company’s main products are various types of wafers. The Company distributes its products in domestic market and to overseas markets, such as the Europe and the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa (SMI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 83.3
Price to Sales 10.8
Price to Book 7.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -16.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 124%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 29.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 58.1%
Total Debt to Equity 74.8%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
EBITDA Margin 36.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.8%
Operating Margin 11.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Net Profit Margin 12.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Effective Tax Rate -1.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SMI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2914 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SMI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $168 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMI are equal to 172.7%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMI is equal to 8.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4151 million for Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 992.991 million for Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Semiconductor Manufacturing Internationa at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ SMIC Reports 2017 First Quarter Results   [06:51AM  PR Newswire]
▶ SMIC Reports 2017 First Quarter Results   [06:34AM  PR Newswire]
▶ SMIC 2016 Annual Results Announcement   [Mar-27-17 08:18AM  PR Newswire]
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▶ SMIC Reports 2016 Fourth Quarter Results   [06:53AM  PR Newswire]
▶ SMIC Reports 2016 Fourth Quarter Results   [05:30AM  PR Newswire]
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Financial statements of SMI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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