Intrinsic value of Standard Motor Products - SMP

Previous Close

$45.00

  Intrinsic Value

$76.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+69%

Previous close

$45.00

 
Intrinsic value

$76.00

 
Up/down potential

+69%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.85
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  1,058
  1,146
  1,237
  1,332
  1,431
  1,533
  1,640
  1,751
  1,866
  1,985
  2,110
  2,240
  2,375
  2,516
  2,663
  2,816
  2,976
  3,143
  3,318
  3,500
  3,690
  3,890
  4,098
  4,316
  4,545
  4,784
  5,035
  5,297
  5,572
  5,860
  6,163
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  852
  919
  989
  1,062
  1,138
  1,216
  1,298
  1,383
  1,471
  1,563
  1,652
  1,752
  1,856
  1,964
  2,077
  2,195
  2,319
  2,447
  2,582
  2,722
  2,869
  3,023
  3,184
  3,353
  3,529
  3,714
  3,908
  4,110
  4,323
  4,546
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  181
  186
  191
  195
  200
  205
  210
  216
  221
  227
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  263
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  305
  312
  320
  328
  336
  345
  353
  362
  371
Total operating expenses, $m
  960
  1,033
  1,105
  1,180
  1,257
  1,338
  1,421
  1,508
  1,599
  1,692
  1,790
  1,884
  1,990
  2,100
  2,214
  2,333
  2,458
  2,588
  2,723
  2,865
  3,012
  3,166
  3,328
  3,496
  3,673
  3,857
  4,050
  4,253
  4,463
  4,685
  4,917
Operating income, $m
  98
  112
  132
  152
  173
  195
  218
  242
  267
  293
  320
  355
  385
  416
  448
  482
  518
  555
  594
  635
  678
  723
  770
  820
  872
  927
  984
  1,045
  1,108
  1,175
  1,245
EBITDA, $m
  118
  133
  154
  175
  198
  221
  245
  271
  297
  324
  353
  383
  415
  447
  482
  517
  555
  594
  635
  679
  724
  771
  821
  874
  929
  986
  1,047
  1,111
  1,178
  1,248
  1,322
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  111
  130
  149
  169
  190
  212
  235
  259
  284
  310
  343
  372
  401
  432
  465
  499
  534
  572
  611
  652
  695
  740
  788
  838
  890
  945
  1,003
  1,064
  1,128
  1,195
Tax expense, $m
  37
  30
  35
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  93
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  271
  287
  305
  323
Net income, $m
  60
  81
  95
  109
  124
  139
  155
  172
  189
  207
  226
  251
  271
  293
  316
  339
  364
  390
  417
  446
  476
  507
  540
  575
  612
  650
  690
  732
  777
  823
  873

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  769
  811
  876
  943
  1,013
  1,085
  1,160
  1,239
  1,320
  1,405
  1,493
  1,585
  1,681
  1,781
  1,885
  1,993
  2,106
  2,224
  2,348
  2,477
  2,612
  2,753
  2,900
  3,055
  3,217
  3,386
  3,563
  3,749
  3,944
  4,148
  4,361
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  749
  811
  876
  943
  1,013
  1,085
  1,160
  1,239
  1,320
  1,405
  1,493
  1,585
  1,681
  1,781
  1,885
  1,993
  2,106
  2,224
  2,348
  2,477
  2,612
  2,753
  2,900
  3,055
  3,217
  3,386
  3,563
  3,749
  3,944
  4,148
  4,361
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.413
  1.413
  1.412
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.414
  1.413
  1.414
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
  1.413
Average production assets, $m
  120
  129
  140
  151
  162
  173
  185
  198
  211
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  301
  318
  336
  355
  375
  395
  417
  440
  463
  488
  514
  541
  569
  599
  630
  662
  696
Working capital, $m
  190
  244
  264
  284
  305
  327
  349
  373
  397
  423
  449
  477
  506
  536
  567
  600
  634
  669
  707
  745
  786
  829
  873
  919
  968
  1,019
  1,072
  1,128
  1,187
  1,248
  1,313
Total debt, $m
  55
  60
  87
  114
  143
  173
  204
  236
  270
  305
  341
  379
  418
  459
  502
  546
  593
  641
  692
  745
  800
  858
  919
  983
  1,049
  1,119
  1,191
  1,268
  1,348
  1,432
  1,520
Total liabilities, $m
  328
  333
  360
  387
  416
  446
  477
  509
  543
  578
  614
  652
  691
  732
  775
  819
  866
  914
  965
  1,018
  1,073
  1,131
  1,192
  1,256
  1,322
  1,392
  1,464
  1,541
  1,621
  1,705
  1,793
Total equity, $m
  441
  478
  516
  555
  596
  639
  684
  730
  778
  828
  880
  934
  990
  1,049
  1,110
  1,174
  1,241
  1,310
  1,383
  1,459
  1,538
  1,621
  1,708
  1,799
  1,895
  1,994
  2,099
  2,208
  2,323
  2,443
  2,569
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  769
  811
  876
  942
  1,012
  1,085
  1,161
  1,239
  1,321
  1,406
  1,494
  1,586
  1,681
  1,781
  1,885
  1,993
  2,107
  2,224
  2,348
  2,477
  2,611
  2,752
  2,900
  3,055
  3,217
  3,386
  3,563
  3,749
  3,944
  4,148
  4,362
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.125
  0.130
  0.170
  0.210
  0.240
  0.270
  0.300
  0.320
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  60
  81
  95
  109
  124
  139
  155
  172
  189
  207
  226
  251
  271
  293
  316
  339
  364
  390
  417
  446
  476
  507
  540
  575
  612
  650
  690
  732
  777
  823
  873
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
Funds from operations, $m
  103
  102
  117
  132
  148
  165
  182
  200
  219
  238
  259
  279
  301
  324
  349
  374
  401
  429
  459
  489
  522
  556
  591
  629
  668
  709
  753
  798
  846
  896
  949
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
Cash from operations, $m
  98
  83
  97
  112
  127
  143
  159
  176
  194
  213
  232
  251
  272
  294
  317
  342
  367
  394
  421
  451
  481
  513
  547
  582
  619
  658
  699
  742
  787
  835
  885
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -88
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  61
  73
  86
  99
  113
  128
  144
  160
  176
  194
  210
  229
  249
  270
  291
  314
  338
  363
  389
  416
  445
  475
  507
  540
  575
  611
  650
  690
  733
  778
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  86
  99
  113
  128
  143
  159
  176
  193
  211
  230
  248
  268
  290
  312
  336
  361
  386
  413
  442
  472
  503
  536
  570
  606
  644
  684
  726
  770
  817
  866
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  49
  61
  74
  87
  101
  115
  130
  145
  161
  178
  194
  212
  231
  251
  272
  294
  317
  341
  366
  392
  420
  449
  479
  511
  545
  580
  617
  656
  697
  740
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  47
  56
  64
  72
  78
  83
  88
  91
  93
  93
  92
  90
  88
  84
  80
  75
  69
  63
  56
  50
  43
  37
  31
  26
  21
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Standard Motor Products, Inc. is an independent manufacturer and distributor of replacement parts for motor vehicles in the automotive aftermarket industry with a complementary focus on heavy duty, industrial equipment and the original equipment service market. The Company's segments include Engine Management Segment and Temperature Control Segment. The Engine Management Segment manufactures and remanufactures ignition and emission parts, ignition wires, battery cables, fuel system parts and sensors for vehicle systems. The Temperature Control Segment manufactures and remanufactures air conditioning compressors, air conditioning and heating parts, engine cooling system parts, power window accessories and windshield washer system parts. The Company sells its products primarily to warehouse distributors, large retail chains, original equipment manufacturers and original equipment service part operations in the United States, Canada, Latin America and Europe.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Standard Motor Products (SMP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.1
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 12.5%
Interest Coverage 100
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 12.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Equity 14.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
EBITDA Margin 11.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Operating Margin 9.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
Payout Ratio 25%

SMP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1058 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Standard Motor Products. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Standard Motor Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SMP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Standard Motor Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Standard Motor Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $177 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Standard Motor Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Standard Motor Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMP are equal to 11.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Standard Motor Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMP is equal to 21.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $441 million for Standard Motor Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22.843 million for Standard Motor Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Standard Motor Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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GPC Genuine Parts 91.98 89.41  hold
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for November 7th   [Nov-07-17 08:38AM  Zacks]
▶ Standard Motor Products posts 3Q profit   [Oct-26-17 09:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Pres Trump set to unveil new tax plan   [09:11AM  Yahoo Finance]
▶ Yahoo Finance Live: Market Movers - Sep 27th, 2017   [07:20AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ BWD Automotive Releases 332 New Part Numbers   [Aug-24-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Standard Motor Products posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 11:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Profit From The Aging Population Of Cars   [Jul-11-17 07:53PM  Forbes]
▶ BWD Automotive Releases 109 New Part Numbers   [Jun-29-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ BWD Automotive Releases 87 New Part Numbers   [Jun-05-17 08:29AM  PR Newswire]
▶ BWD Automotive Releases 237 New Part Numbers   [May-08-17 09:41AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Standard Motor Products posts 1Q profit   [May-03-17 08:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ BWD Automotive Releases 100 New Diesel Part Numbers   [Apr-05-17 09:14AM  PR Newswire]
▶ BWD Automotive Releases 242 New Part Numbers   [Feb-06-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of SMP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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