Intrinsic value of Semtech - SMTC

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$37.10

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$37.10

 
Intrinsic value

$117.89

 
Up/down potential

+218%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.02
  17.60
  16.34
  15.21
  14.19
  13.27
  12.44
  11.70
  11.03
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
Revenue, $m
  544
  640
  744
  857
  979
  1,109
  1,247
  1,393
  1,546
  1,708
  1,876
  2,053
  2,236
  2,428
  2,627
  2,834
  3,049
  3,273
  3,505
  3,747
  3,998
  4,259
  4,531
  4,813
  5,108
  5,415
  5,734
  6,068
  6,415
  6,779
  7,158
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  114
  128
  142
  158
  174
  192
  210
  230
  250
  272
  261
  285
  309
  334
  361
  388
  417
  446
  477
  509
  542
  577
  613
  650
  689
  730
  773
  817
  863
  911
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  386
  396
  406
  416
  427
  437
  448
  459
  471
  483
  495
  507
  520
  533
  546
  560
  574
  588
  603
  618
  633
  649
  665
  682
  699
  716
  734
  753
  771
  791
Total operating expenses, $m
  460
  500
  524
  548
  574
  601
  629
  658
  689
  721
  755
  756
  792
  829
  867
  907
  948
  991
  1,034
  1,080
  1,127
  1,175
  1,226
  1,278
  1,332
  1,388
  1,446
  1,507
  1,570
  1,634
  1,702
Operating income, $m
  84
  139
  220
  309
  405
  508
  618
  734
  857
  986
  1,122
  1,297
  1,445
  1,599
  1,760
  1,927
  2,101
  2,282
  2,471
  2,667
  2,871
  3,083
  3,305
  3,535
  3,775
  4,026
  4,288
  4,561
  4,846
  5,144
  5,455
EBITDA, $m
  131
  191
  276
  368
  468
  575
  689
  810
  937
  1,071
  1,212
  1,359
  1,512
  1,673
  1,839
  2,013
  2,194
  2,382
  2,577
  2,781
  2,992
  3,213
  3,442
  3,681
  3,931
  4,191
  4,462
  4,745
  5,041
  5,350
  5,673
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  139
  148
  156
  166
Earnings before tax, $m
  73
  131
  210
  296
  389
  489
  596
  709
  828
  953
  1,084
  1,255
  1,398
  1,548
  1,704
  1,866
  2,035
  2,211
  2,394
  2,584
  2,782
  2,988
  3,203
  3,426
  3,660
  3,903
  4,156
  4,421
  4,698
  4,987
  5,290
Tax expense, $m
  18
  35
  57
  80
  105
  132
  161
  191
  223
  257
  293
  339
  378
  418
  460
  504
  550
  597
  646
  698
  751
  807
  865
  925
  988
  1,054
  1,122
  1,194
  1,269
  1,347
  1,428
Net income, $m
  55
  96
  153
  216
  284
  357
  435
  517
  604
  696
  792
  916
  1,021
  1,130
  1,244
  1,362
  1,486
  1,614
  1,748
  1,886
  2,031
  2,181
  2,338
  2,501
  2,671
  2,849
  3,034
  3,228
  3,430
  3,641
  3,862

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  297
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,012
  841
  978
  1,127
  1,287
  1,457
  1,639
  1,830
  2,032
  2,244
  2,466
  2,697
  2,939
  3,190
  3,452
  3,724
  4,007
  4,301
  4,606
  4,923
  5,253
  5,597
  5,954
  6,325
  6,712
  7,115
  7,535
  7,973
  8,430
  8,907
  9,406
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  715
  841
  978
  1,127
  1,287
  1,457
  1,639
  1,830
  2,032
  2,244
  2,466
  2,697
  2,939
  3,190
  3,452
  3,724
  4,007
  4,301
  4,606
  4,923
  5,253
  5,597
  5,954
  6,325
  6,712
  7,115
  7,535
  7,973
  8,430
  8,907
  9,406
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.760
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
Average production assets, $m
  180
  212
  246
  284
  324
  367
  413
  461
  512
  565
  621
  679
  740
  804
  869
  938
  1,009
  1,083
  1,160
  1,240
  1,323
  1,410
  1,500
  1,593
  1,691
  1,792
  1,898
  2,008
  2,124
  2,244
  2,369
Working capital, $m
  315
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  74
  82
  91
  101
  111
  121
  132
  143
  155
  167
  180
  193
  207
  221
  236
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  338
  358
  379
  400
  422
Total debt, $m
  241
  296
  372
  454
  542
  635
  735
  841
  952
  1,068
  1,190
  1,317
  1,450
  1,589
  1,733
  1,882
  2,038
  2,199
  2,367
  2,542
  2,723
  2,912
  3,108
  3,313
  3,526
  3,747
  3,978
  4,219
  4,471
  4,733
  5,007
Total liabilities, $m
  406
  462
  538
  620
  708
  801
  901
  1,007
  1,118
  1,234
  1,356
  1,483
  1,616
  1,755
  1,899
  2,048
  2,204
  2,365
  2,533
  2,708
  2,889
  3,078
  3,274
  3,479
  3,692
  3,913
  4,144
  4,385
  4,637
  4,899
  5,173
Total equity, $m
  605
  378
  440
  507
  579
  656
  737
  824
  914
  1,010
  1,109
  1,214
  1,322
  1,436
  1,553
  1,676
  1,803
  1,935
  2,073
  2,216
  2,364
  2,518
  2,679
  2,846
  3,020
  3,202
  3,391
  3,588
  3,794
  4,008
  4,233
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,011
  840
  978
  1,127
  1,287
  1,457
  1,638
  1,831
  2,032
  2,244
  2,465
  2,697
  2,938
  3,191
  3,452
  3,724
  4,007
  4,300
  4,606
  4,924
  5,253
  5,596
  5,953
  6,325
  6,712
  7,115
  7,535
  7,973
  8,431
  8,907
  9,406
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.398
  0.780
  0.850
  0.890
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.431
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  55
  96
  153
  216
  284
  357
  435
  517
  604
  696
  792
  916
  1,021
  1,130
  1,244
  1,362
  1,486
  1,614
  1,748
  1,886
  2,031
  2,181
  2,338
  2,501
  2,671
  2,849
  3,034
  3,228
  3,430
  3,641
  3,862
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  114
  121
  129
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  217
Funds from operations, $m
  126
  148
  209
  275
  347
  424
  506
  593
  684
  781
  882
  978
  1,089
  1,204
  1,324
  1,449
  1,578
  1,713
  1,854
  2,000
  2,152
  2,311
  2,476
  2,647
  2,827
  3,013
  3,208
  3,412
  3,624
  3,847
  4,079
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  118
  133
  203
  269
  340
  416
  498
  584
  675
  771
  872
  968
  1,078
  1,193
  1,312
  1,436
  1,566
  1,700
  1,840
  1,986
  2,137
  2,295
  2,460
  2,631
  2,809
  2,995
  3,190
  3,392
  3,604
  3,825
  4,057
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -19
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -206
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -157
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -207
  -219
  -232
  -243
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -332
Free cash flow, $m
  104
  85
  149
  209
  274
  343
  418
  498
  582
  671
  764
  853
  955
  1,061
  1,172
  1,288
  1,408
  1,534
  1,664
  1,800
  1,941
  2,087
  2,240
  2,400
  2,566
  2,739
  2,919
  3,108
  3,305
  3,510
  3,725
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  69
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -19
  69
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  85
  154
  224
  290
  361
  437
  518
  603
  693
  787
  886
  980
  1,088
  1,200
  1,316
  1,438
  1,564
  1,695
  1,832
  1,974
  2,122
  2,276
  2,437
  2,604
  2,778
  2,960
  3,150
  3,349
  3,556
  3,773
  3,999
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -77
  -56
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -224
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  283
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  381
  162
  223
  289
  361
  436
  517
  602
  692
  786
  876
  979
  1,086
  1,199
  1,315
  1,437
  1,563
  1,694
  1,831
  1,974
  2,122
  2,276
  2,437
  2,604
  2,779
  2,961
  3,152
  3,350
  3,558
  3,775
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  365
  149
  194
  238
  279
  317
  349
  376
  397
  412
  416
  418
  413
  402
  386
  365
  340
  312
  282
  251
  219
  189
  160
  133
  108
  86
  68
  52
  39
  28
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Semtech Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products. The company provides signal integrity products, including a portfolio of optical communications, broadcast video, surveillance video, active cable transceiver, and backplane products used in various enterprise computing, industrial, communications, and high-end consumer applications; and proprietary advanced wired communication and ultra-high speed serializer/deserializer products for use in long-haul optical transport communication. It also offers protection products, such as filter and termination devices that are integrated with the transient voltage suppressor devices, which protect electronic systems from voltage spikes; and wireless and sensing products comprising a portfolio of specialized radio frequency products used in various industrial, medical, and communications applications, as well as specialized sensing products used in industrial and consumer applications. In addition, the company provides power products consisting of switching voltage regulators, combination switching and linear regulators, smart regulators, charge pumps, and wireless charging that control, alter, regulate, and condition the power within electronic systems; and discrete semiconductor products, including rectifiers, assemblies, and other products for use in industrial, military, medical, automotive, and aerospace applications, as well as defense systems, such as satellite communications. It primarily serves original equipment manufacturers and their subcontractors. The company sells its products directly, as well as through independent sales representative firms and independent distributors in the Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America. Semtech Corporation has a strategic agreement with MultiPhy Ltd. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Camarillo, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Semtech (SMTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.4
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 153.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 37.5%
Total Debt to Equity 39.8%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.7%
EBITDA Margin 23.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Operating Margin 15.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Net Profit Margin 10.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 24.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Payout Ratio 0%

SMTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $544 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Semtech. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Semtech. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SMTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Semtech, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Semtech.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 18.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $377 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Semtech.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Semtech. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMTC are equal to 33.1%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Semtech operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMTC is equal to 5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $605 million for Semtech - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 66.213 million for Semtech is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Semtech at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.


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Stock chart of SMTC Financial statements of SMTC Annual reports of SMTC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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