Intrinsic value of Semtech - SMTC

Previous Close

$34.05

  Intrinsic Value

$56.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+67%

Previous close

$34.05

 
Intrinsic value

$56.99

 
Up/down potential

+67%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.02
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  544
  596
  650
  706
  764
  825
  888
  954
  1,022
  1,093
  1,167
  1,243
  1,323
  1,406
  1,492
  1,582
  1,676
  1,774
  1,876
  1,982
  2,093
  2,210
  2,331
  2,458
  2,590
  2,729
  2,875
  3,027
  3,186
  3,353
  3,527
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  182
  158
  168
  179
  190
  201
  213
  226
  239
  252
  267
  281
  297
  313
  330
  348
  366
  385
  406
  427
  449
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  386
  396
  406
  416
  427
  437
  448
  459
  471
  483
  495
  507
  520
  533
  546
  560
  574
  588
  603
  618
  633
  649
  665
  682
  699
  716
  734
  753
  771
  791
Total operating expenses, $m
  460
  495
  512
  529
  546
  565
  583
  602
  622
  643
  665
  653
  675
  699
  723
  747
  773
  800
  827
  855
  885
  914
  946
  978
  1,012
  1,047
  1,082
  1,119
  1,159
  1,198
  1,240
Operating income, $m
  84
  100
  138
  177
  218
  260
  305
  351
  400
  450
  502
  590
  647
  707
  770
  835
  903
  974
  1,049
  1,127
  1,209
  1,295
  1,385
  1,480
  1,579
  1,683
  1,792
  1,907
  2,028
  2,154
  2,287
EBITDA, $m
  131
  151
  191
  231
  274
  318
  365
  413
  464
  516
  571
  628
  688
  750
  815
  883
  954
  1,028
  1,106
  1,187
  1,273
  1,362
  1,456
  1,554
  1,657
  1,766
  1,879
  1,999
  2,124
  2,256
  2,395
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
Earnings before tax, $m
  73
  92
  129
  166
  206
  247
  290
  335
  381
  430
  481
  567
  622
  680
  740
  803
  869
  938
  1,010
  1,086
  1,165
  1,248
  1,335
  1,426
  1,522
  1,623
  1,729
  1,840
  1,957
  2,079
  2,208
Tax expense, $m
  18
  25
  35
  45
  56
  67
  78
  90
  103
  116
  130
  153
  168
  183
  200
  217
  235
  253
  273
  293
  314
  337
  360
  385
  411
  438
  467
  497
  528
  561
  596
Net income, $m
  55
  67
  94
  121
  150
  180
  212
  244
  278
  314
  351
  414
  454
  496
  540
  586
  634
  685
  737
  792
  850
  911
  975
  1,041
  1,111
  1,185
  1,262
  1,343
  1,428
  1,518
  1,612

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  297
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,012
  783
  854
  927
  1,004
  1,084
  1,167
  1,253
  1,343
  1,436
  1,533
  1,634
  1,738
  1,847
  1,961
  2,079
  2,202
  2,331
  2,465
  2,605
  2,751
  2,903
  3,063
  3,230
  3,404
  3,586
  3,777
  3,977
  4,186
  4,406
  4,635
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  715
  783
  854
  927
  1,004
  1,084
  1,167
  1,253
  1,343
  1,436
  1,533
  1,634
  1,738
  1,847
  1,961
  2,079
  2,202
  2,331
  2,465
  2,605
  2,751
  2,903
  3,063
  3,230
  3,404
  3,586
  3,777
  3,977
  4,186
  4,406
  4,635
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.762
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
Average production assets, $m
  180
  197
  215
  234
  253
  273
  294
  316
  338
  362
  386
  412
  438
  465
  494
  524
  555
  587
  621
  656
  693
  731
  772
  814
  857
  903
  951
  1,002
  1,055
  1,110
  1,168
Working capital, $m
  315
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
Total debt, $m
  241
  265
  303
  344
  386
  430
  476
  523
  573
  624
  677
  733
  790
  850
  913
  978
  1,045
  1,116
  1,190
  1,267
  1,347
  1,431
  1,519
  1,610
  1,706
  1,807
  1,912
  2,021
  2,137
  2,257
  2,383
Total liabilities, $m
  406
  431
  469
  510
  552
  596
  642
  689
  739
  790
  843
  899
  956
  1,016
  1,079
  1,144
  1,211
  1,282
  1,356
  1,433
  1,513
  1,597
  1,685
  1,776
  1,872
  1,973
  2,078
  2,187
  2,303
  2,423
  2,549
Total equity, $m
  605
  352
  384
  417
  452
  488
  525
  564
  604
  646
  690
  735
  782
  831
  882
  936
  991
  1,049
  1,109
  1,172
  1,238
  1,307
  1,378
  1,453
  1,532
  1,614
  1,700
  1,790
  1,884
  1,983
  2,086
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,011
  783
  853
  927
  1,004
  1,084
  1,167
  1,253
  1,343
  1,436
  1,533
  1,634
  1,738
  1,847
  1,961
  2,080
  2,202
  2,331
  2,465
  2,605
  2,751
  2,904
  3,063
  3,229
  3,404
  3,587
  3,778
  3,977
  4,187
  4,406
  4,635
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.398
  0.750
  0.790
  0.820
  0.850
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.431
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  55
  67
  94
  121
  150
  180
  212
  244
  278
  314
  351
  414
  454
  496
  540
  586
  634
  685
  737
  792
  850
  911
  975
  1,041
  1,111
  1,185
  1,262
  1,343
  1,428
  1,518
  1,612
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
Funds from operations, $m
  126
  119
  147
  176
  206
  238
  272
  306
  342
  380
  419
  451
  494
  539
  585
  634
  685
  738
  794
  853
  914
  978
  1,045
  1,116
  1,190
  1,268
  1,349
  1,435
  1,525
  1,620
  1,719
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  118
  116
  143
  172
  203
  235
  268
  302
  338
  376
  415
  447
  489
  534
  580
  629
  680
  733
  788
  846
  907
  971
  1,038
  1,108
  1,182
  1,260
  1,341
  1,426
  1,516
  1,610
  1,709
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -160
Free cash flow, $m
  104
  82
  107
  134
  162
  191
  222
  254
  287
  321
  357
  386
  425
  466
  509
  554
  600
  649
  701
  754
  810
  869
  931
  996
  1,064
  1,135
  1,210
  1,289
  1,371
  1,458
  1,549
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -19
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  85
  119
  146
  175
  204
  235
  267
  301
  336
  373
  411
  441
  483
  526
  571
  619
  668
  720
  774
  831
  891
  953
  1,019
  1,087
  1,159
  1,235
  1,315
  1,398
  1,486
  1,579
  1,676
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -77
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  283
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  372
  115
  142
  170
  199
  230
  262
  296
  331
  367
  396
  436
  477
  520
  566
  613
  662
  714
  768
  825
  884
  947
  1,012
  1,081
  1,153
  1,229
  1,309
  1,392
  1,480
  1,572
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  357
  105
  123
  140
  155
  167
  177
  185
  190
  192
  188
  186
  181
  175
  166
  156
  144
  131
  118
  105
  91
  79
  66
  55
  45
  36
  28
  22
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Semtech Corporation is a supplier of analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products. The Company designs, develops and markets a range of products for commercial applications, which are sold into the enterprise computing, communications, consumer and industrial end-markets. Its product lines include Signal Integrity, Protection, Wireless and Sensing, and Power and High-Reliability. Applications for the industrial market include video broadcast studio equipment, automated meter reading, wireless charging, military and aerospace, medical, security systems, automotive, Internet of Things, industrial and home automation, and video security and surveillance. Enterprise computing end-markets include desktops, notebooks, servers, graphic boards, printers, datacenter related equipment and passive optical networks. Communications end-market applications include wireless base stations, carrier networks, switches and routers, cable modems, signal conditioners and wireless local area network.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Semtech (SMTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.7
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 153.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 37.5%
Total Debt to Equity 39.8%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.7%
EBITDA Margin 23.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Operating Margin 15.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Net Profit Margin 10.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 24.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Payout Ratio 0%

SMTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $544 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Semtech. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Semtech. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SMTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Semtech, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Semtech.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 18.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $377 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Semtech.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Semtech. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMTC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMTC are equal to 33.1%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Semtech operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMTC is equal to 5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $605 million for Semtech - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 66.959 million for Semtech is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Semtech at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Semtech and Lacuna Receiving Messages from Space   [Feb-15-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) Undervalued?   [Jan-22-18 01:30AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Semtech to Present at Investor Event   [Jan-10-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtech Appoints Chris Chang to Executive Management Team   [Jan-09-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtech to Attend LoRa Alliance 10th All Members Meeting   [Jan-04-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtech plunges more than 11% on weak forecast   [Nov-29-17 04:49PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Semtech beats 3Q profit forecasts   [04:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Analyst: Semtech Has Nearly 30% Upside   [Nov-20-17 04:51PM  Benzinga]
▶ Semtech Clears Key Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Nov-07-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks To Watch: Semtech Sees Relative Strength Rating Jump To 83   [Oct-30-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Semtech Corp. : October 27, 2017   [Oct-27-17 11:15AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Semtech Sponsors LoRa Alliance 9th All Members Meeting   [Oct-05-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtech Hits 80-Plus Relative Strength Rating Benchmark   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ IBD Rating Upgrades: Semtech Flashes Improved Price Strength   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Semtech Corp. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 10:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Semtech tops 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-31-17 08:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Semtech Falls On Weak Sales Guidance For October Quarter   [Aug-30-17 05:43PM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of SMTC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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