Intrinsic value of Synchronoss Technologies - SNCR

Previous Close

$16.71

  Intrinsic Value

$9.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-41%

  Value-price divergence*

-17%

Previous close

$16.71

 
Intrinsic value

$9.87

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-17%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SNCR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.45
  11.40
  10.76
  10.18
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
Revenue, $m
  477
  531
  589
  648
  711
  777
  845
  916
  990
  1,066
  1,146
  1,229
  1,315
  1,405
  1,498
  1,594
  1,695
  1,800
  1,909
  2,023
  2,142
  2,265
  2,395
  2,529
  2,670
  2,817
  2,971
  3,132
  3,300
  3,476
  3,661
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  509
  561
  615
  672
  732
  794
  858
  925
  995
  1,067
  1,115
  1,193
  1,275
  1,359
  1,447
  1,538
  1,633
  1,732
  1,836
  1,943
  2,056
  2,173
  2,295
  2,423
  2,557
  2,696
  2,842
  2,995
  3,154
  3,322
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  549
  509
  561
  615
  672
  732
  794
  858
  925
  995
  1,067
  1,115
  1,193
  1,275
  1,359
  1,447
  1,538
  1,633
  1,732
  1,836
  1,943
  2,056
  2,173
  2,295
  2,423
  2,557
  2,696
  2,842
  2,995
  3,154
  3,322
Operating income, $m
  -72
  22
  28
  33
  39
  45
  51
  58
  65
  72
  79
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  210
  222
  234
  247
  261
  275
  290
  306
  322
  339
EBITDA, $m
  27
  88
  98
  108
  118
  129
  140
  152
  164
  177
  190
  204
  218
  233
  249
  265
  282
  299
  317
  336
  356
  376
  398
  420
  444
  468
  494
  520
  548
  577
  608
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
Earnings before tax, $m
  -75
  14
  17
  21
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  45
  50
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  175
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
Tax expense, $m
  -8
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
Net income, $m
  20
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  60
  64
  67
  71
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  194
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,165
  1,082
  1,199
  1,321
  1,448
  1,582
  1,721
  1,865
  2,015
  2,172
  2,334
  2,503
  2,678
  2,861
  3,050
  3,247
  3,453
  3,666
  3,889
  4,120
  4,362
  4,614
  4,877
  5,152
  5,438
  5,738
  6,051
  6,379
  6,722
  7,080
  7,456
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  971
  1,082
  1,199
  1,321
  1,448
  1,582
  1,721
  1,865
  2,015
  2,172
  2,334
  2,503
  2,678
  2,861
  3,050
  3,247
  3,453
  3,666
  3,889
  4,120
  4,362
  4,614
  4,877
  5,152
  5,438
  5,738
  6,051
  6,379
  6,722
  7,080
  7,456
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
Average production assets, $m
  351
  391
  433
  477
  523
  571
  621
  673
  727
  784
  842
  903
  967
  1,032
  1,101
  1,172
  1,246
  1,323
  1,403
  1,487
  1,574
  1,665
  1,760
  1,859
  1,963
  2,071
  2,184
  2,302
  2,426
  2,555
  2,691
Working capital, $m
  210
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
  327
  344
Total debt, $m
  267
  293
  350
  410
  473
  539
  607
  678
  753
  830
  910
  993
  1,079
  1,169
  1,263
  1,360
  1,461
  1,566
  1,676
  1,790
  1,909
  2,034
  2,163
  2,299
  2,440
  2,588
  2,742
  2,904
  3,073
  3,250
  3,435
Total liabilities, $m
  508
  534
  591
  651
  714
  780
  848
  919
  994
  1,071
  1,151
  1,234
  1,320
  1,410
  1,504
  1,601
  1,702
  1,807
  1,917
  2,031
  2,150
  2,275
  2,404
  2,540
  2,681
  2,829
  2,983
  3,145
  3,314
  3,491
  3,676
Total equity, $m
  657
  549
  608
  670
  734
  802
  872
  946
  1,022
  1,101
  1,183
  1,269
  1,358
  1,450
  1,546
  1,646
  1,750
  1,859
  1,972
  2,089
  2,212
  2,339
  2,473
  2,612
  2,757
  2,909
  3,068
  3,234
  3,408
  3,590
  3,780
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,165
  1,083
  1,199
  1,321
  1,448
  1,582
  1,720
  1,865
  2,016
  2,172
  2,334
  2,503
  2,678
  2,860
  3,050
  3,247
  3,452
  3,666
  3,889
  4,120
  4,362
  4,614
  4,877
  5,152
  5,438
  5,738
  6,051
  6,379
  6,722
  7,081
  7,456
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.406
  0.530
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507
  0.507

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  60
  64
  67
  71
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  99
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  125
  132
  140
  149
  157
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  269
Funds from operations, $m
  204
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  150
  160
  171
  181
  193
  204
  217
  229
  243
  256
  271
  286
  302
  318
  335
  353
  372
  391
  412
  434
Change in working capital, $m
  61
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  143
  71
  77
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  123
  131
  140
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  274
  289
  305
  321
  339
  357
  376
  395
  416
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -157
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
New CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -135
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -99
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -163
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -262
  -275
  -290
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -354
  -372
  -391
Free cash flow, $m
  44
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  -3
  -2
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  25
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  162
  169
  177
  185
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -24
  47
  46
  47
  47
  47
  47
  47
  46
  46
  46
  26
  25
  25
  25
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -9
  102
  103
  107
  110
  113
  115
  118
  120
  123
  126
  109
  111
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  138
  142
  147
  153
  158
  165
  172
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  114
  118
  122
  125
  129
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  165
  173
  180
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  165
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  205
  41
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  45
  46
  47
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  197
  38
  36
  35
  34
  32
  30
  28
  26
  25
  10
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.0
  85.4
  79.8
  74.9
  70.8
  67.2
  64.1
  61.3
  58.9
  56.7
  55.6
  54.6
  53.7
  52.9
  52.1
  51.4
  50.8
  50.2
  49.6
  49.1
  48.7
  48.2
  47.8
  47.4
  47.0
  46.7
  46.3
  46.0
  45.7
  45.4

Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. provides cloud solutions and software-based activation for mobile carriers, enterprises, retailers, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) worldwide. The company’s solutions include activation and provisioning software for devices and services, cloud-based sync, backup, storage and content engagement capabilities, broadband connectivity solutions, analytics, identity/access management, and secure mobility management that enable communications service providers, cable operators/multi-services operators, and OEMs with embedded connectivity, multi-channel retailers, medium and large enterprises, and their consumers, as well as other customers to accelerate and monetize value-add services for secure and broadband networks and connected devices. Its Activation Services, Synchronoss Personal Cloud, and Enterprise and Integrated Life platforms provide automated on-demand, end-to-end order processing, transaction management, service provisioning, device activation, intelligent connectivity and content transfer, synchronization and social media, identity and access management, and secure mobility management, as well as enterprise-wide sharing/collaboration through multiple channels, including e-commerce, m-commerce, telesales, enterprise, indirect, and retail outlets. The company markets and sells its services through direct sales force and strategic partners. Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Bridgewater, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Synchronoss Technologies (SNCR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.9
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -3.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 36.2%
Total Debt to Equity 40.6%
Interest Coverage -10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61%
EBITDA Margin 6.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Operating Margin -15.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -15.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Net Profit Margin 4.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Effective Tax Rate 10.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

SNCR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SNCR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $477 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Synchronoss Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Synchronoss Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SNCR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SNCR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Synchronoss Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Synchronoss Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SNCR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SNCR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Synchronoss Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Synchronoss Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SNCR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SNCR are equal to 73.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Synchronoss Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SNCR is equal to 9.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $657 million for Synchronoss Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.857 million for Synchronoss Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Synchronoss Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. Receives NASDAQ Letter   [Aug-22-17 04:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ These 3 Stocks Have Lost Over 50% in 2017   [Jul-16-17 07:07PM  Motley Fool]
▶ McDonald's and KLA-Tencor rise while Hess and Haverty fall   [Jul-07-17 06:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [12:18PM  Briefing.com]
▶ Company News for June 26, 2017   [10:16AM  Zacks]
▶ Synchronoss Stock Pops On Takeover Offer After Long Swoon   [04:11PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks Open Tightly Mixed; This Bank Leads Dow, Cat Downgraded   [09:44AM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of SNCR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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